iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Hot off the press! A new, open access article in Political Geography, "What's in a name?" written with a former student (Lily Martin) and @excubs.bsky.social (Juliet Johnson) about removing "Providence Plantations" from Rhode Island's official name in 2020. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Nouvelle prévision basée sur un sondage Léger du 31 août (presque identique au sondage Pallas Data du 29). Le PQ est proche de la majorité et le PLQ semble avoir une nette avance sur la CAQ. Peu de changement pour le QS et le CPQ.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

This forecasts a tight three-way race (rather than two-way) with no party projected to get a majority.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Merci à @joffre.bsky.social d'avoir repéré une erreur flagrante dans mes prévisions. (Dans mon code, j'avais inversé les chiffres du vote libéral de 2022 : 41,4 % au lieu de 14,4 %.) Cela a amené le modèle à sous-estimer fortement le nombre de sièges libéraux. Voici le graphique corrigé pour Leger.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Stop the presses! Thanks to @joffre.bsky.social for identifying an obvious error in my forecast. (In my code, I transposed the digits of 2022 Liberal vote as 41.4% rather than the correct 14.4%.) That led the model to severely under-predict Liberal seats. Here's the corrected graph for Synopsis.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Hmm. That does sound like a bug. I'll double-check the code.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

I agree that this run of the model appears to under-predict for the PLQ. The simple model I use assumes uniform swing in every district, but we know that "fortress" ridings have less volatility. And that is assuming the poll used is reasonably accurate. Take the results with a large grain of salt!

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Le sondage Léger du 24 août indiquait un appui plus important à la CAQ que le sondage Synopsis réalisé quatre jours plus tard. Ces résultats confèrent à la CAQ une confortable majorité.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The next Quebec election is October 5 so it's time to fire up the swing model again. This is based on the 28 August poll by Synopsis, which is more favourable to the CAQ than other recent surveys. Based on it, the CAQ and PQ are neck-and-neck but no party is likely to win a majority of seats.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Back in the real world, however, this demonstrates Alito and the rest of the Court knows full well: A perfect Republican gerrymander guarantees zero Black-majority districts.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

So pushing everything to absurdly theoretical levels - and completely ignoring contiguity - it might just be barely possible to make one State House district with both a Republican and Black majority. Vindication for Justice Alito!

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

If by some miracle the 46 Alito precincts were placed in a single State House district, it would "only" be -9.92% underpopulated, barely within the conventional population deviation for a state legislative district.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

The ideal population of Georgia's 12 Congressional districts is over 765,000 so our Alito district is nowhere close to having sufficient population. There are 180 State House seats, so their ideal population is just under 60,000.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

What if you combine these 46 precincts into a single district? To give us the best possible case, we'll ignore contiguity because these precincts are scattered throughout the state. This "Alito" district is about 55% Republican and 55% Black, but has a total population (2020 Census) of only 53,609.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Georgia had four "Alito" counties in the 2024 presidential election, so maybe we can create a Black-Republican majority district there? Using data from Dave's Redistricting (thank you!) it is easy to show that there are 46 (!) precincts out of 2770 units. Impressive, Justice Alito!

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

More thoughts on the Callais decision and Alito's willfully colour-blindness assertion that there could be districts with both Black and Republican majorities. Even one such district would be impossible using counties as redistricting units, but what about precincts (the smallest possible units)?

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

In the 2024 election, there were nine counties that had both Black and Republican majorities, all very close to 50%. All were in the rural Deep South: Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana. (Pop <40,000). Much more likely due to turnout differences than lots of Black voters supporting Trump.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

This is a first approximation - Congressional districts are not based on county units - but Alito imagines the US is somehow like one county with fewer than 11,000 people, rather than one where race and party affiliation are closely linked. Willful colourblindness.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

How likely is it that a district with a Republican majority would also have a majority of Black voters? I compared the presidential results from 2016 and 2020 against the 2020 share of Black population by county. For both elections, there was exactly ONE county like this: Early County, Georgia.

A scatter plot showing the relationship between Republican support and Black population share by counties in the US for the 2016 and 2020 elections.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Alito argues that a district plan driven by partisan gerrymandering is not racially conscious unless (perhaps) one can create an equally partisan plan that also (somehow) has a majority of Black voters.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

After reading Alito's Louisiana v. Callais opinion, has led me to jump back on Bluesky (at least for a little bit). In reading it, I was reminded of something Kimberlé Crenshaw said in a class I took with her at UCLA back in the 1990's: Colourblindness is a disability. In Alito's case, it's willful.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...

nytimes.com

Texas Professor Fired After Accusations of Teaching ‘Gender Ideology’

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...

time.com

Why I’m Resigning from the NSF and Library of Congress

I cannot participate in systems that require dishonesty as the price of belonging.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

This is not bad – with caveats. The CBC’s own forecast range for the LPC (141-217) included the actual results, albeit with much wider range. Increasing the standard deviation for the vote shares in the simulations to 10% from 5% produces ranges that include the actual results.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The model under predicted the NDP (0-3) and over-predicted the LPC (174-202), although combining my earlier guestimate of 7 seats for the NDP with the assumption that these seats would have otherwise gone to the LPC puts the low Liberal forecast at 170.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night. As I had guessed, they did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night, but did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Peak Canada

Kaleigh Rogers @KaleighRogers
One couple at a voting station in Port Credit said they would rather not speak to American media.
They then apologized three times.
10:12 AM • 4/28/25 • 69K Views

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

In contrast, with one or two exceptions, where the LPC and NDP are close, they are fighting for 2nd place behind the Conservatives. The NDP will probably pick up ~5 close races from the Liberals, but it's not going to be a massive shift.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Such a sweep would probably push the Liberals to a massive 200-seat majority. And if the CPC craters, Trump will probably claim he was talking about Carney.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

I am dubious about predicting individual ridings, but it looks like there are about 20 where either the CPC or LPC lead, but are within 5 points of each other. If the Liberals sweep these, they will perhaps have Trump’s intervention to thank (although it’s doubtful much changes at this stage).

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Once the results are in (probably tomorrow), I’ll run the model with the actual vote share to see how the model did this time around. My guesstimate is the LPC with about 185 seats with the NPD ending up with around 7.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Sarah Moser @sarahkmoser.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

Urbanistas out there will enjoy this book on 'Four lost cities' by @annaleen.bsky.social ...a fun read with lots of fascinating detail about Çatalhöyük (in present-day Turkey), Pompeii (in present-day Italy), Angkor (in present-day Cambodia), and Cahokia (in present-day USA)

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

The model forecasts a 100% chance of a Liberal majority government, but a successful NDP defence of its stronghold ridings could conceivably push the LPC into minority territory. The hints of a slight national swing to the NDP would be less relevant than focused attention on key districts. 2/2

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2

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