iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Hot off the press! A new, open access article in Political Geography, "What's in a name?" written with a former student (Lily Martin) and @excubs.bsky.social (Juliet Johnson) about removing "Providence Plantations" from Rhode Island's official name in 2020. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Nouvelle prévision basée sur un sondage Léger du 31 août (presque identique au sondage Pallas Data du 29). Le PQ est proche de la majorité et le PLQ semble avoir une nette avance sur la CAQ. Peu de changement pour le QS et le CPQ.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Merci à @joffre.bsky.social d'avoir repéré une erreur flagrante dans mes prévisions. (Dans mon code, j'avais inversé les chiffres du vote libéral de 2022 : 41,4 % au lieu de 14,4 %.) Cela a amené le modèle à sous-estimer fortement le nombre de sièges libéraux. Voici le graphique corrigé pour Leger.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Stop the presses! Thanks to @joffre.bsky.social for identifying an obvious error in my forecast. (In my code, I transposed the digits of 2022 Liberal vote as 41.4% rather than the correct 14.4%.) That led the model to severely under-predict Liberal seats. Here's the corrected graph for Synopsis.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Le sondage Léger du 24 août indiquait un appui plus important à la CAQ que le sondage Synopsis réalisé quatre jours plus tard. Ces résultats confèrent à la CAQ une confortable majorité.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

The next Quebec election is October 5 so it's time to fire up the swing model again. This is based on the 28 August poll by Synopsis, which is more favourable to the CAQ than other recent surveys. Based on it, the CAQ and PQ are neck-and-neck but no party is likely to win a majority of seats.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

More thoughts on the Callais decision and Alito's willfully colour-blindness assertion that there could be districts with both Black and Republican majorities. Even one such district would be impossible using counties as redistricting units, but what about precincts (the smallest possible units)?

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

In the 2024 election, there were nine counties that had both Black and Republican majorities, all very close to 50%. All were in the rural Deep South: Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana. (Pop <40,000). Much more likely due to turnout differences than lots of Black voters supporting Trump.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

This is a first approximation - Congressional districts are not based on county units - but Alito imagines the US is somehow like one county with fewer than 11,000 people, rather than one where race and party affiliation are closely linked. Willful colourblindness.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

How likely is it that a district with a Republican majority would also have a majority of Black voters? I compared the presidential results from 2016 and 2020 against the 2020 share of Black population by county. For both elections, there was exactly ONE county like this: Early County, Georgia.

A scatter plot showing the relationship between Republican support and Black population share by counties in the US for the 2016 and 2020 elections.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Alito argues that a district plan driven by partisan gerrymandering is not racially conscious unless (perhaps) one can create an equally partisan plan that also (somehow) has a majority of Black voters.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

After reading Alito's Louisiana v. Callais opinion, has led me to jump back on Bluesky (at least for a little bit). In reading it, I was reminded of something Kimberlé Crenshaw said in a class I took with her at UCLA back in the 1990's: Colourblindness is a disability. In Alito's case, it's willful.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...

nytimes.com

Texas Professor Fired After Accusations of Teaching ‘Gender Ideology’

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...

time.com

Why I’m Resigning from the NSF and Library of Congress

I cannot participate in systems that require dishonesty as the price of belonging.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Peak Canada

Kaleigh Rogers @KaleighRogers
One couple at a voting station in Port Credit said they would rather not speak to American media.
They then apologized three times.
10:12 AM • 4/28/25 • 69K Views

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

Once the results are in (probably tomorrow), I’ll run the model with the actual vote share to see how the model did this time around. My guesstimate is the LPC with about 185 seats with the NPD ending up with around 7.

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.

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Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest

Sarah Moser @sarahkmoser.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

Urbanistas out there will enjoy this book on 'Four lost cities' by @annaleen.bsky.social ...a fun read with lots of fascinating detail about Çatalhöyük (in present-day Turkey), Pompeii (in present-day Italy), Angkor (in present-day Cambodia), and Cahokia (in present-day USA)

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

The model forecasts a 100% chance of a Liberal majority government, but a successful NDP defence of its stronghold ridings could conceivably push the LPC into minority territory. The hints of a slight national swing to the NDP would be less relevant than focused attention on key districts. 2/2

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 26/04/2025

Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

No student has shown up to my office hours, so I ran one more set of simulations, with the Nanos Research / CTV-Globe and Mail. This poll – along with one from Liaison Strategies / NEPMCC – has the largest difference between the LPC and CPC (43% to 37%). 1/2 newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/po...

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Poll Tracker

If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from Éric Grenie...

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

The Angus Reid results have the Liberals averaging 190 seats and the Conservatives 129, with no simulation producing a minority government. The forecast has the Bloc with a solid 21-22 seats share and the now-familiar dire results for the NDP ( 1 seat or less).3/4

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

I ran the simulations with polls at the extremes. Angus Reid has the LPC at 44% and the CPC at 39% while Mainstreet Research has both at 40%. Caveats: the former uses a much larger sample size and the CBC ranks it as more reliable. 2/4

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

The first set of post-debate polls are out and on average they don’t show much change. There is perhaps a 0.5% move in favour of the Conservatives relative to the Liberal Party, but not enough to change the forecast of a Liberal majority. 1/4

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

There were no dramatic moments in the debates – other than the Canadiens qualifying for the playoffs (Go Habs Go!) – so it seems unlikely that we will see much movement in response to them. At this point, it is the Liberal’s election to lose. 3/3

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

The model continues to forecast a comfortable majority for the Liberals, averaging 198 seats, with a 20% chance of cracking the 200-seat ceiling, and no chance of falling below a majority. 2/3

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

The polls have narrowed *slightly* in the past week, but basically they are all within the margins of error of prior ones. Nonetheless, it is a good time to lay down a marker before the effects (if any) of the debates show up. 1/3

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

The current polls + the 2025 boundaries give the LPC a favourable seat-vote ratio (1.33); the CPC has a slightly negative one (0.98). It’s much worse for smaller parties. Even with the adjustment, the FPTP district system favours the Liberals; redistricting was not a Conservative gerrymander. 6/6

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

That is not to say that the Commissions created partisan gerrymanders in favour of the CPC. The seat-vote ratio in 2021 created a massive advantage for the LPC – they got many more seats with fewer votes than the CPC. 5/6

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Under the current boundaries, the LPC averages 200 and the CPC 125. In short, the 2022-2023 adjustment favours the Conservatives, but not enough to give them a majority. The old boundaries are slightly better for the other parties as well, but the effects are not large. 4/6

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

I ran the model using the 2021 boundaries (338 constituencies) with today’s CBC polling averages (10 April) to see what the likely outcome would be under the old system. The LPC averages 207 seats while the CPC averages 111. 3/6

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Boundary Commissions adjusted the borders of constituencies in every province in response to these seat additions and to population change (as measured by the 2021 Census). Although the Commissions are strictly non-partisan, these changes could have partisan effects. 2/6

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Prof. Benjamin Forest @benjaminforest.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

The polls in Canada are not moving much so it’s a good time to talk about the effects of the 2022-2023 redistribution that modified Federal constituency boundaries. Parliament added five seats to the Commons, raising it from 338 to 343. Alberta got 3 more, while Ontario and BC got one each. 1/6

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