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Ben Bailey

@benfb.bsky.social
477 followers 58 following 292 posts

Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Probably doesn't matter, but I don't really get using Aaron Civale down 7 runs
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It will never cease to amuse me that the NL MVP walks up to an MGMT song
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Aaron Civale in 11 games since his first Cubs appearance this year: 24 IP, 23 K, 6 BB, 0.75 ERA, 2.25 xERA, 2.18 FIP
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Felt like Zeferjahn needed to see a clean inning regardless of how he got there. Maybe notable that he threw majority sinkers after only throwing a couple as a Cub.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Michael Conforto has his hardest and third-hardest hit balls of his season tonight.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Trent Thornton before 7/1: 2.63 ERA, 5.74 xERA, 5.71 FIP Trent Thornton since 7/1: 2.04 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 2.46 FIP 36.8% K% in his last 6 outings with 0 walks Aaron Civale since his first outing with the Cubs: 1.02 ERA, 2.12 xERA, 1.95 FIP
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
David Peterson might be in line for a playoff start if the playoffs started today. His velo was up a tick today and he got a season-high 17 whiffs and 8 strikeouts.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
I'm a bit worried about Michael Busch being a 130+ wRC+ guy again. Never an amazing athlete, his bat and sprint speed have decreased each of the last 3 years. Made strides against lefties this year, but he's not crushing righties. Defense is great, but overall not a traditional 1B profile.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Possibly a random thing, but I wonder if the Cubs tweaked Clay Holmes' cutter. 5" more drop, thrown 3 MPH slower than average this year.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Right up there with Hunter Greene and Dylan Cease for opposing starter performances against the Cubs this season
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Reposted by Ben Bailey
Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
We don't need to pretend Eric Lauer is good, its okay
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Very different roles, but Ryan Rolison's success is one reason I like the Garrett acquisition. If there's one thing I trust the Cubs to do, it's get good results from lefties with fastballs that have natural cut.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Brief deadline takeaways... Jed Hoyer clearly believes in the current Cubs team I don't love giving up Rojas for rentals. I assumed you could get a controllable starter with him as the main piece. If an extension is worked out, it would feel better, even though it's not baked into cost (1/3)
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Braxton Garrett has started a Marlins playoff game more recently than Sandy Alcantara
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Braxton Garrett and Ryan Zeferjahn, the 4 seam fastball horizontal movement reverse leaderboard sort strikes again
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Clearly I did this
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Bateman and Southisene are fun, but they have a combined 6 professional HRs. Easy deal for Gausman.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
If the playoffs started tomorrow, I don't think there's a rumored to be available pitcher I'd want starting more than Reid Detmers. Big question (besides acquisition cost) is how he would hold up for the remainder of the season and in a much more competitive environment.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
In sentences that were never said before this year...how sure are we that George Kirby is significantly better than Emerson Hancock?
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
northsidebaseball.com/news-ru... Bump
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Curious what teams think about Pedro Ramírez compared to Matt Shaw (outside of Shaw's wrist injury). Shaw has pedigree, more game power to this point in the majors, and more positional flexibility, flashing plus defense at three positions, though the bar isn't ideal for a corner OF. (1/3)
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Reposted by Ben Bailey
Matt Trueblood @matrueblood.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Jacob Webb has a new breaking ball—the product of a pitcher with good feel being scooped up by a Tyler Zombro-Tommy Hottovy pitching outfit. Will that make him a good enough leverage arm to let #Cubs focus on their rotation instead this week? northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...
northsidebaseball.com
Jacob Webb's New Pitch Softens Cubs' Need for Reliever at MLB Trade Deadline
He's not a traditional relief ace, but Jacob Webb loves his high-leverage role with the Cubs—and the new breaking ball he and the team engineered has made him viable in it.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
We don't need to pretend Eric Lauer is good, its okay
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Here's my list of above, on, and under the radar controllable starting pitchers I'd look at if I were the Cubs as the trade deadline approaches cubofcoffee.com/a-list-of-co...
cubofcoffee.com
A List of Controllable Starters...
Thoughts on the Chicago Cubs after every game
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
"We're willing to trade our young catcher because we have Luis Torrens" is not really a ringing endorsement of the young catcher
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Braxton Garrett doesn't seem to be a priority for the Marlins anymore, and I wonder if (despite competing with each other) the Cubs and Marlins could match up in a trade. Garrett is a softer-throwing lefty with a cut fastball and two breaking balls, a profile the Cubs have worked well with.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Any of these guys would be great, but there's already reporting that Detmers, Soriano, and Webb are not available, Alcantara has been solid but not amazing, would Texas trade Gore right after trading for him…Ryan is the best fit but the Twins may not move him either…
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Lots of talk about how the Cubs are trying to pull the ball in the air too much…they're only 8th in baseball. The month in which they pulled the ball in the air the least was their worst offensive month. Similarly, Nico Hoerner's Pull Air % was highest in March/April and lowest in May.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Velo was down last night, looked uncomfortable, and was visited by the trainer but still finished the inning. I'm sure he said he was fine, but it's a bad look.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
May 2026 was no better than the third-worst calendar month of Dansby Swanson (32 wRC+), Seiya Suzuki (54), and Nico Hoerner (62)'s careers.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
If the Cubs had a superstar hitter like Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez maybe he could carry the team. This is why the Mets and Astros are so good this year. The pitching is an issue, but the hitters who are supposed to hit just have to hit.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Good news and bad news: that single was Bregman's hardest hit ball in 3 weeks.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Joe Ryan is tricky to value with 1.5 years of control left. As far as I can tell, there haven't been many SP that good traded with that much team control in the last few years. The most recent example may be Eflin in 2024, though he had a shorter track record. Better comps Montas or Castillo (1/2)
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
One name I’d be curious about for the Cubs at the 2026 trade deadline is Clarke Schmidt. He’s coming back from elbow surgery and the Yankees already have five solid starters before Gerrit Cole comes back. A six pitch pitcher who can cut his fastball…
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
The Cubs wouldn't be where they are this season without unexpected contributions from their bullpen. I compiled a list of 12 of my favorite unexpected relief outings from the season so far cubofcoffee.com/the-12-best-...
cubofcoffee.com
The 12 Best Cubs Relief Moments of the Season So Far
The Cubs have the best record in baseball at 27-12, despite many pitching injuries. A large part of their recent success has been relievers stepping up and performing way above expectations. Because t...
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Freddy Peralta is probably the fourth most likely Mets starter to be traded to the Cubs at the trade deadline
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
One unique thing about Ryan Rolison is that this year he's throwing three distinct breaking balls as a reliever, to go with a fastball that moves more like a cutter. Don't think he'll maintain this all year, but I think there's something there.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
@cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com I once again have some bad news
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Jameson Taillon Strike %: 2023: 66% 2024: 66% 2025: 67% 2026: 61%
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Great work by Riley Martin today to come in to replace an injured Caleb Thielbar down in the count to Trea Turner with Schwarber and Harper up next and getting out of the inning unscathed. That's a hard spot for anyone, much less a rookie.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Dansby Swanson's home run was the hardest-hit ball of his career.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Sorry @cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Something to note early: after ditching his sinker in his first few appearances, it’s been Edward Cabrera’s primary fastball against righties so far this afternoon
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Cubs need some new Oblique Strategies
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Reposted by Ben Bailey
Meghan Montemurro @mmontemurro.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Shota Imanaga's 26 whiffs tonight vs. the Phillies are the most by a pitcher in MLB this season. Imanaga's 26 whiffs also tie Yu Darvish (Aug. 23, 2020) for the most whiffs by a Cubs pitcher in the pitch tracking era (since 2008).
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
4 hits in the Cubs/Phillies game, 0 on pitches in the strike zone
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Obviously very different roles and it won’t last, but it is very funny that Conforto is outhitting Kyle Tucker
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Jameson Taillon’s four-seam fastball shape looks better this year. Unfortunately, it’s slower, his command has been worse, and his changeup is doing something weird. If he can somehow alleviate those things and keep the new fastball shape, it could help him hold down the back of the rotation
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
What a start to the season for Nico Hoerner after his extension: .333/.453/.548 for a 183 wRC+, third in the majors in base running value, and tied for the league lead in fWAR.
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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
The Cubs’ three backend starters are throwing 20 combined pitch types
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