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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Jameson Taillon’s four-seam fastball shape looks better this year. Unfortunately, it’s slower, his command has been worse, and his changeup is doing something weird. If he can somehow alleviate those things and keep the new fastball shape, it could help him hold down the back of the rotation

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Yearly irrelevant predictions

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 22/02/2026

Good example of a veteran Spring Training outing for Colin Rea--threw all his pitches a couple of times, mostly used his fastball, velo was already around where it was last year

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bregman deal is that the Cubs finally were willing to include deferrals again

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Pitch movement (horizontal) leaderboard strikes again

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

There’s obviously more to it than this, but Caleb Thielbar was one of the best relievers by xERA last year. This is relievers with > 40 IP.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Just delaying the inevitable until Gray and Pallante sign one year deals with the Cubs

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

Here’s a “fun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in “barrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/07/2025

a ton of cut, which is clearly a feature the Cubs look for. Acquiring Coulombe would give them 7 of the top 15 in relative 4S cut this year (and Matt Festa was in the org briefly over the winter). Coulombe is owed ~$1M the rest of the year, so money shouldn't be an issue.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

I've mentioned Michael Soroka a couple times as a good candidate for a SP to get you to October and then move to the bullpen for the playoffs. Unfortunately, his FB velo has now been down 2+ MPH 3 of the last 4 starts, including today. Still intriguing as a reliever, but seems to be wearing down

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

Joe Ryan wins the most amped award so far tonight

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

The slider is a really weird pitch (deathball-ish in movement), and the cutter has a ton of cut to it for its velocity. And, since it's the Cubs, his fastball has a lot of natural cut to it as well. In a starting role, I think you're looking for 4-5 innings of staying off the barrel.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

Chris Flexen won't strike guys out, but his hard contact suppression has been real this year. I'm guessing this pitch mix from his arm angle is why. It will be important to see how the stuff holds up later in games if he's going to make starts, but he's been surprisingly good in a relief role.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

Wouldn't have expected there to be a big change with how recently he signed, but nothing major different with Cabrera in his first outing with the Cubs. More splitter compared to his average but I'm guessing that's because he faced some righties. Interesting to have a 5-pitch mix as a reliever.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

The Cubs' base stealing feels like it's taken a hit recently--they're also facing the three best throwing catchers this year in consecutive series

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 13/04/2025

The best sluggers in baseball

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Something to watch as the Cubs play the Dodgers—they have yet to throw out a base stealer this year. We saw how the Cubs ran on the Rangers this week, and they may have to do similar to win in LA this weekend.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

And, if you're curious, the wRC+ change for all Cubs whose wRC+ changed in the last day after @dszymborski.fangraphs.com's ZiPS update

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Meaningless predictions here before stateside opening day

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

Very cool to see Miguel Amaya's stance change from the first half to the second half on the new Baseball Savant batting stance visuals. We knew he reduced his leg kick, but now we can visualize it.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 22/02/2025

This isn't the best way to look at it, but here is a comparison of Gage Workman and Vidal Bruján across various projection systems, with the presented stat the adjusted offensive stat of choice (wRC+ for all the rest but DRC+ for PECOTA).

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Not surprised the Cubs didn't match 40M AAV for Bregman no matter how short the term. With Pivetta coming off the board the Cubs have budget for any or multiple remaining FAs. Combined with this from the Athletic, I wonder if Robertson and Turner are on the table. www.nytimes.com/athletic/613...

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Here are the projections available on @fangraphs.com for Mark Canha and Justin Turner. WAR isn't worth looking at here, but interesting to see that ZiPS loves Turner compared to OOPSY and there's a smaller spread on Canha.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Here's something interesting I found when looking at the Cubs' pitching staff: their ground ball rate ranked 17th, which was the first time they've been below average since 2014. They long prioritized pitchers who got ground balls, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. (1/1)

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

It really is wild that David Robertson hasn’t lost any velocity at age 39.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Beggars can't be choosers, but I'd be a little hesitant to give Carlos Estévez closer money. He had the best ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP of his career last year, but I can't entirely figure out why. He didn't get much chase, and still got hit hard while not getting many whiffs.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

There's been a lot of talk about how Isaac Paredes' numbers tanked at Wrigley and it wasn't a good park for him, and that might be true...but it wasn't because his fly balls weren't going out like they were in Tampa. He had one homer at Wrigley as a Cub and would've had one at the Trop.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

A couple of other high upside arms that might not cost much in trade: - Reid Detmers (unlikely to be available, but high K upside) - Edward Cabrera (out of options, all Ks and BBs, could relieve) More expensive options: Mitch Keller, Luis Castillo (both unlikely) Dream candidate: Pablo López

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Here's something fun: Kyle Tucker is the third best left-on-left hitter in baseball since 2021 (min. 500 PA). He's 21st in the league against lefties among all hitters and 10th against righties.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Here's all the plays where Michael Busch played 3B for the Cubs

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

Triston Casas is an interesting upside play. I'd be a little concerned that the Red Sox are more open to moving him than some of their prospects, especially considering his injury last year seemingly coming from swinging so hard www.nytimes.com/athletic/545...

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Bubic's fastball has some cut-ride shape to it, too, and his slider gets a ton of movement. The Cubs need a left-handed reliever, and there aren't a ton of good options in free agency. This could be a good place to utilize a prospect like James Triantos.

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

One interesting Cubs target on the Royals? Kris Bubic has only thrown 46 1/3 innings the last two years due to Tommy John in 2023, but he was nasty as a lefty reliever this season. Bubic ranked 12th in baseball in K-BB% for all pitchers who threw at least 30 innings (he threw 30 1/3).

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Ben Bailey @benfb.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

The idea of Yusei Kikuchi as the Cubs' biggest free agent signing of the year isn't exciting, but he would be a great pickup. Kikuchi had the fifth best K-BB% from 8/1 through the end of the season after being traded to the Astros and increasing his slider usage. He also got more grounders.

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