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Ben Cahill

@bencahill.bsky.social
1.4K followers 231 following 58 posts

Director, Energy Markets and Policy, CEESA, UT Austin. Energy, geopolitics, Middle East, transitions, methane, LNG, NOCs, running, cocktails.

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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...
barrons.com
The Surprising Climate Story Behind Booming U.S. LNG Exports
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Our conclusion: mending rather than ending federal methane regulations may leave the industry in a better position to meet external demands and market conditions. While you're here, please check out our new website for the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis! www.ceesa.utexas.edu
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers
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jae holzman @jael.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days cc @heatmap.news heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
heatmap.news
Trump Pauses Permitting for All Renewables on Federal Lands
A newly released memo from the Department of the Interior freezes the pipeline for 60 days.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...
cgai.ca
The Co-Evolution of the Canada-U.S. Oil Industry and Possible Implications of Donald Trump’s Re-election
The United States and Canada are the two fastest growing sources of non-OPEC oil production today and, for more than a decade, have made up the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. While supply from the re...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Why Biden’s Farewell Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal
The US on Friday announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump as president.
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Ugne Keliauskaite @keliauskaite.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports -RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels) -weekly LNG imports slightly increased -LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88% -EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15% www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...
csis.org
Experts React: DOE LNG Study Highlights and Implications
The Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on U.S. liquified natural gas exports, offering a comprehensive update on economic and environmental analysis. Experts discuss key highlights a...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
nytimes.com
Transition Live Updates: To Avert Shutdown, Republicans Consider Rejecting Trump’s Priority
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
It's fair to say 2022-2023 was unique. European gas buyers were forced to outbid everyone; unlikely to happen again unless there's an emergency situation. Which leaves standard offtake deals with US LNG projects. Already European buyers have some in place for "paused" projects including CP2.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...
ft.com
Donald Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs
US president-elect warns bloc that member states will face tariffs unless they make big purchases
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Arvind Ravikumar @arvindpawan1.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive). www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Of course. The EPA rule was expressly designed to address the gap between GHGRP inventory data based on engineering-based estimates, vs measured data from satellites & other sources. That's the whole point. Here's a great summary of requirements & significance. eelp.law.harvard.edu/epas-final-m...
eelp.law.harvard.edu
EPA’s Final Methane Rule — Incorporating Advanced Technologies and Emissions Data to Reduce Methane Emissions from the Oil and Natural Gas Sector – Environmental and Energy Law Program
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
The EPA estimates the OOOO b/c rules will reduce methane emissions by 58 million tons between 2024 and 2038. www.epa.gov/system/files...
epa.gov
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
No, you wrote that the Biden admin asked the EU to loosen its regulations, which is not correct. The EU will not issue this "equivalency" exemption for the US unless they're convinced US rules are at least as strong. And on CH4 reductions, the EPA 0000 b/c rules are critical, not just the WEC. 1/2
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
by project promoters, and also compel companies to show how they have considered this study's findings. This is the crux of the issue: how DOE and FERC will have to change their permitting process within the (fairly narrow) confines of the Natural Gas Act. Lots to unpack when the study is published.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
2. Increased LNG exports displace more renewables than coal abroad. It will be important to look at regional breakdown/assumptions. 3. China as largest long term LNG demand source. Not South Asia or SE Asia? 4. Suggestion: future DOE export authorizations consider GHG reductions... (Cont'd)
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...
nytimes.com
‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns
Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
You can read the letter here. This shows how important it is to maintain rather than roll back or weaken US methane regulations. The EU and other LNG buyers will continue to demand better data on emissions intensity. Buyer demands matter. www.energy.gov/fecm/article...
energy.gov
DOE and EPA Letter to European Commission Asking to Initiate Discussion on Regulatory Equivalence for Natural Gas
DOE and the EPA co-signed a letter addressed to European Commission Director-General for Energy Juul Jorgensen, requesting determination of “equivalency” for US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2
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Arvind Ravikumar @arvindpawan1.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
🔴New Paper! Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study! We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months! This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌 #EnergySky
pubs.acs.org
Multiscale Measurements of Greenhouse Gas Emissions at U.S. Natural Gas Liquefaction Terminals
Addressing methane emissions across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is key to reducing climate impacts of LNG. Actions to address methane emissions have emphasized the importance of the u...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...
aol.com
Exclusive: Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s transition team is recommending sweeping changes to cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, compone...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation www.ft.com/content/50ec...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...
agsiw.org
Trump 2.0: Oil Market Implications for the Gulf States
As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Postscript: if you want a summary of the economic, geopolitical, market, and climate implications of US LNG, here's a summary from me way back in January, before the LNG "pause" was announced. www.csis.org/analysis/us-...
csis.org
U.S. LNG Export Boom: Defining National Interests
Battle lines have been drawn over U.S. LNG. Policymakers are grappling with the role of natural gas in the energy transition, the benefits and drawbacks of growing LNG exports, and the value of U.S. f...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress clearly want to end the pause and start permitting projects as fast as possible. But conclusions of this study could complicate those plans, as least for day 1/week 1 actions. (End)
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
4. The comment period. (I assume there will be one, but a 60 day comment period takes us past Inauguration Day). Expect comments from LNG exporters, industry interest groups, environmental orgs, and perhaps LNG consumers who care about energy security above all. The study findings will matter. 5...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
How will DOE accommodate concerns about climate and environmental justice in the context of individual export authorizations? The NGA constrains FERC and DOE authorities. Does DOE reach a sweeping conclusion about how to interpret its authorities? We wrote about this: www.csis.org/analysis/us-....
csis.org
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
On climate impacts, we know about the flaws of Robert Howarth's study (cherry picked data, worst case assumptions). The national labs do serious life-cycle assessments w/more realistic supply chain assumptions. How different will the conclusions be? 3...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
I imagine the study will include scenarios for domestic gas demand, including from data centers, AI, and manufacturing. The DOE has examined these questions in the past, especially in the early days of LNG export authorizations. But price/demand concerns have been rekindled. 2...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iraq, Russia, Saudi Discuss Energy Markets Before OPEC+ Meeting
Officials from Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia — three of the biggest nations in the OPEC+ alliance — met in Baghdad to discuss energy markets days before the group’s year-end gathering.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Tariffs on imported goods could increase customs revenue, e.g. federal budget revenue. But that's effectively via a tax on domestic consumers, not exporters from other countries, because consumers pay higher prices.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Midwestern refiners with facilities configured for mostly heavy Canadian crude don't have great alternatives. They pay more, and pass along higher costs to their customers. So, net loss for consumers, inflationary pressure, bad for consumer spending & confidence. If it happens.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
I'm pretty sure Canadians are taking it seriously!
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).
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Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would 🚢 Approve new LNG export plants 🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land 🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV ⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
The package would approve export permits for new LNG projects and increase oil drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
"Drill, baby, drill" is at odds with current industry realities: capital discipline, the price environment, and the depletion of sweet spots outside the Permian Basin. That slogan is really shorthand for: deregulate and build more O&G infrastructure. Which is not as catchy!
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Quoted in this Washington Post story. Data centers, AI, and manufacturing mean significant load growth. Gas demand scenarios are changing. That makes it all the more important to cut emissions from U.S. gas production. It's a bad idea to roll back methane regulations! wapo.st/3CHeQHR
wapo.st
AI’s hunger for electric power is threatening U.S. climate goals
The enormous electricity needs of artificial intelligence are driving plans for scores of new fossil fuel plants with decades of expected service life.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Yes. I'm an oil and gas analyst with a strong interest in climate policy. I try to engage with oil & gas X and climate X. The algorithms really messed with visibility and engagement. But at least in my X feed, there is more diversity of views and even (sometimes!) dialogue.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Important read on priorities for the incoming Senate EPW chair. Covers permitting reform, support for nuclear, IRA methane fee and MERP funding, and more. Looks like a big reconciliation bill is on the horizon. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024...
subscriber.politicopro.com
POLITICO Pro: POLITICO Pro Q&A: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, incoming EPW chair
In an interview with POLITICO, the West Virginia Republican laid out her priorities, including digging into a permitting rules overhaul and maintaining a focus on helping nuclear power grow.
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Brilliant article on illicit Iranian oil trade to China via ship-to-ship transfers offshore Malaysia. Cool visuals and lots of good details on this regulatory no man's land. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
A burgeoning group of dark fleet vessels operating with impunity on the edge of a major maritime thoroughfare is moving hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned oil — and risking an environmental...
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Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
David Victor: "Trump’s election also necessitates thinking about ways of international cooperation that emphasize actors beyond the federal government, in states and the private sector, that can take outsized roles when Washington turns away from global agendas.." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
How the world will weather Trump’s withdrawal from global agreements
The US president-elect says he will pull the country out of international treaties and partnerships. That need not lead to disorder.
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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Have heard a lot about supporting local infrastructure projects, but we are finding no relationship between voting shifts to Trump and spending per capita on projects from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, or Inflation Reduction Act agglomerations.substack.com/p/the-econom...
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Josh Busby @busbyj2.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Lots to play for.
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