Sign in

Ben Cahill

@bencahill.bsky.social
1.4K followers 231 following 58 posts

Director, Energy Markets and Policy, CEESA, UT Austin. Energy, geopolitics, Middle East, transitions, methane, LNG, NOCs, running, cocktails.

PostsRepliesMedia
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...
barrons.com
The Surprising Climate Story Behind Booming U.S. LNG Exports
280
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers
130
Reposted by Ben Cahill
jae holzman @jael.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days cc @heatmap.news heatmap.news/sparks/renew...
heatmap.news
Trump Pauses Permitting for All Renewables on Federal Lands
A newly released memo from the Department of the Interior freezes the pipeline for 60 days.
612044
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.
030
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...
cgai.ca
The Co-Evolution of the Canada-U.S. Oil Industry and Possible Implications of Donald Trump’s Re-election
The United States and Canada are the two fastest growing sources of non-OPEC oil production today and, for more than a decade, have made up the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. While supply from the re...
072
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Why Biden’s Farewell Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal
The US on Friday announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump as president.
021
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Ugne Keliauskaite @keliauskaite.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports -RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels) -weekly LNG imports slightly increased -LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88% -EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15% www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...
064
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...
csis.org
Experts React: DOE LNG Study Highlights and Implications
The Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on U.S. liquified natural gas exports, offering a comprehensive update on economic and environmental analysis. Experts discuss key highlights a...
120
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
nytimes.com
Transition Live Updates: To Avert Shutdown, Republicans Consider Rejecting Trump’s Priority
010
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...
ft.com
Donald Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs
US president-elect warns bloc that member states will face tariffs unless they make big purchases
030
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Arvind Ravikumar @arvindpawan1.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive). www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
1209
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...
nytimes.com
‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns
Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”
120
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2
230
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Arvind Ravikumar @arvindpawan1.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
🔴New Paper! Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study! We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months! This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌 #EnergySky
pubs.acs.org
Multiscale Measurements of Greenhouse Gas Emissions at U.S. Natural Gas Liquefaction Terminals
Addressing methane emissions across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is key to reducing climate impacts of LNG. Actions to address methane emissions have emphasized the importance of the u...
54916
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...
aol.com
Exclusive: Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s transition team is recommending sweeping changes to cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, compone...
010
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.
020
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation www.ft.com/content/50ec...
0208
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...
agsiw.org
Trump 2.0: Oil Market Implications for the Gulf States
As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.
030
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.
181
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!
150
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
The DOE US #LNG study could be out very soon. Here's what I'll be watching. 1. The conclusions on domestic gas prices. How much could a sharp increase in LNG exports drive up domestic gas prices? And how will domestic prices be linked to international gas market conditions? (Continued)
151
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. They are likely to (for a third time) delay their plans to bring barrels back online, after years of deep production cuts. The focus is on compliance, since Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are producing above target. The US shale boom is still hard to handle for OPEC+.
071
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
A visit from Saudi and Russian leaders ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. Sure looks like they're not happy with Iraq's compliance. More than 300 mb/d over quota for October, according to the IEA. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iraq, Russia, Saudi Discuss Energy Markets Before OPEC+ Meeting
Officials from Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia — three of the biggest nations in the OPEC+ alliance — met in Baghdad to discuss energy markets days before the group’s year-end gathering.
061
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Is Trump serious about 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, or is this an opening salvo to get a "deal"? Either way it's a terrible idea. The U.S. imported 3.89 million barrels per day of Canadian crude last year. (More than 10x U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia, btw).
395
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Stephen Stapczynski @sstapczynski.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Surprising no one, Trump's transition team is compiling an energy package that would 🚢 Approve new LNG export plants 🛢️ Boost oil drilling off the US coast & on federal land 🚗 Repeal tax credits for EV ⚡️ Remove clean power plant standards www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
The package would approve export permits for new LNG projects and increase oil drilling off the U.S. coast and on federal lands.
22315
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
"Drill, baby, drill" is at odds with current industry realities: capital discipline, the price environment, and the depletion of sweet spots outside the Permian Basin. That slogan is really shorthand for: deregulate and build more O&G infrastructure. Which is not as catchy!
061
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Quoted in this Washington Post story. Data centers, AI, and manufacturing mean significant load growth. Gas demand scenarios are changing. That makes it all the more important to cut emissions from U.S. gas production. It's a bad idea to roll back methane regulations! wapo.st/3CHeQHR
wapo.st
AI’s hunger for electric power is threatening U.S. climate goals
The enormous electricity needs of artificial intelligence are driving plans for scores of new fossil fuel plants with decades of expected service life.
063
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Yes. I'm an oil and gas analyst with a strong interest in climate policy. I try to engage with oil & gas X and climate X. The algorithms really messed with visibility and engagement. But at least in my X feed, there is more diversity of views and even (sometimes!) dialogue.
2120
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Important read on priorities for the incoming Senate EPW chair. Covers permitting reform, support for nuclear, IRA methane fee and MERP funding, and more. Looks like a big reconciliation bill is on the horizon. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024...
subscriber.politicopro.com
POLITICO Pro: POLITICO Pro Q&A: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, incoming EPW chair
In an interview with POLITICO, the West Virginia Republican laid out her priorities, including digging into a permitting rules overhaul and maintaining a focus on helping nuclear power grow.
041
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Brilliant article on illicit Iranian oil trade to China via ship-to-ship transfers offshore Malaysia. Cool visuals and lots of good details on this regulatory no man's land. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
A burgeoning group of dark fleet vessels operating with impunity on the edge of a major maritime thoroughfare is moving hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned oil — and risking an environmental...
072
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
David Victor: "Trump’s election also necessitates thinking about ways of international cooperation that emphasize actors beyond the federal government, in states and the private sector, that can take outsized roles when Washington turns away from global agendas.." www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
How the world will weather Trump’s withdrawal from global agreements
The US president-elect says he will pull the country out of international treaties and partnerships. That need not lead to disorder.
030
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Have heard a lot about supporting local infrastructure projects, but we are finding no relationship between voting shifts to Trump and spending per capita on projects from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, or Inflation Reduction Act agglomerations.substack.com/p/the-econom...
333
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Josh Busby @busbyj2.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Lots to play for.
1298
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
With all the focus on the DOE energy secretary nominee, a reminder that (in budgetary terms) the department mostly does nuclear safety and R&D including the national labs. HT to @liamdenning.bsky.social. ttps://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/doe-fy-2025-budget-in-brief-v2.pdf.
1132
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Allison Good @allisonwgood.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
For my new followers, a treat: Private equity infrastructure fundraising 'roaring back' to power datacenters www.spglobal.com/marketintell... 🔌💡
A GIF map showing planned US transmission projects and datacenter facilities from 2024 through 2033.
3329
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Not an especially promising sign for crude. Term structure (prompt futures spreads charted) continues to steadily erode over the past few months and WTI now drifting dangerously close to contango.
1101
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
New commentary from me in Barron's: Trump's Win is (Mostly) Good News for the Oil Industry. Companies will welcome the "energy dominance” agenda. But on tariffs, the IRA, and even regulations, there will be some friction, especially with the majors. www.barrons.com/articles/tru...
barrons.com
Trump Wants to Boost U.S. Oil and Gas Production. Easier Said Than Done.
President-elect Donald Trump wants to “drill, baby, drill,” but industry is focused on returns, Ben Cahill writes in a guest commentary.
090
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Well worth a read. Structural slowdown in China due to EV adoption, high-speed rail, and property sector challenges that hit diesel demand. China has been the engine of oil demand growth for 20 years. Very hard to replace it from India, SE Asia, et al. www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowi...
energypolicy.columbia.edu
China's Slowing Oil Demand Growth Is Likely to Persist and Could Impact Markets - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %
Get the latest as our experts share their insights on global energy policy.
042
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
First impression: Bluesky is very U.S.-centric. I hope that changes over time. The other site has many flaws but the voices/scope are much more global.
130
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
A reminder that most U.S. crude oil is produced on private land (74% last year, by my reckoning), with regulation partly in the hands of states. Of course, federal regs have a long reach, and approvals for pipelines and export facilities matter to all.
010
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Ironically, this article appears on the very day that I'm having rooftop solar installed! "How to save money with the Inflation Reduction Act before Trump is in charge." wapo.st/4foeBQf
030
Reposted by Ben Cahill
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
BlueSky already has a vibrant energy poster ecosystem but commodities—the raw materials on which these energy systems depend—are comparatively underrepresented. Below is a Commodity Analysts Starter Pack that highlights some great people in this space—give them all a follow! go.bsky.app/8wXWNer
1723442
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
No surprise that the US has started this process. But ask yourself how the EU will respond given Trump’s plans. Gutting the EPA OOOO b/c rules (upstream and midstream sector) would not align with the long term interests of US LNG exporters. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Biden officials ask EU to align methane rules with US to ease LNG flows
President Joe Biden’s administration has asked the European Union to ensure liquefied natural gas shipments that meet U.S. methane regulations automatically comply with Europe’s standards for imports, according to a letter seen by Reuters.
120
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
I'm privileged to work at UT Austin & EEMDL with leading experts on oil and gas GHG emissions. Here's a new white paper summarizing our recent Energy Emissions Modeling and Data Lab event. Lots of insights here on methane science, policy, & LNG market impacts. static1.squarespace.com/static/62e95...
010
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Warning signs. XOM rightly argues that pulling out of the Paris accord again is at odds with big corporate commitments and only sows confusion. On climate issues (and IRA benefits?) Trump world is keyed into views of smaller independents, not the majors. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
010
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Federal oil and gas methane rules are vulnerable after Trump's election. The IRA "methane fee" could potentially be removed w/legislative changes to Sec. 60113. EPA rules (OOOO b/c) could be altered too. The latter would mean serious backtracking on CH4. 🧵 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Biden Forges Ahead With Levy on Methane Despite Trump’s Election
Oil and gas producers in the US will for the first time be required to pay for some of their methane emissions under a regulation the Biden administration is set to finalize Tuesday, according to peop...
100
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
I assume if Trump ratchets up oil sanctions enforcement on Iran, it could take 1 million b/d + off the market in 2025. (On Russia & Venezuela sanctions, could be a wash). But, some (probably misguided) optimism in Iran that Trump may want a "Nixon to China" moment. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/w...
nytimes.com
Iran Debates Whether It Could Make a Deal With Trump
Some in Iran’s new, more moderate government think the result of the presidential election provides an opportunity to make a lasting deal with the United States.
000
Ben Cahill @bencahill.bsky.social · 08/11/2024
DOE plans to publish the LNG export "pause" study soon. Goal is to address concerns about climate, environmental justice, and price/domestic market impacts of LNG exports, & reassess export authorization process. Post-election timing is no surprise. Impact?... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Biden Rushing Study That Threatens to Slow Trump’s LNG Plans
The Biden administration is racing to complete a study that could complicate President-Elect Donald Trump’s plan to immediately approve new liquefied natural gas export terminals, according to people ...
000