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Ryan J. McComb

@bayespr.bsky.social
51 followers 12 following 38 posts

Data Science Fellow @VoteHub.com

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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...
mccomb.ca
Every Map Everywhere All at Once
Good Algorithms Finish First: ten thousand exact neutral maps of a state in two seconds on a laptop, about a hundred times faster than redist.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Here are both racing in real time on the same MacBook Air. Every square is one map! Shoal finishes in 2.3 seconds; redist is under 1% of the way there.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...
mccomb.ca
Every Map Everywhere All at Once
Good Algorithms Finish First: ten thousand exact neutral maps of a state in two seconds on a laptop, about a hundred times faster than redist.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Props to the whole team. This is the most futuristic way to view early voting data — we model the early vote in real time, and you can see it all live. Thanks to our friends at L2 Data!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
lowk it would mean about a 13.15 shift to dems, off of SHAVE data at least, you may be using some other estimate of environment from 24
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Super excited to have done a bit of research and worked on this over a few weeks! We're going to need a lot more GPU hours until we can fully determine the extent of how predictive satellite modeling is, but it is interesting to say the least!
ryanmccomb.substack.com
Geography is All You Need
With the recent launch of Google’s WeatherNext 3 and some incredibly cool research out of Google DeepMind on AlphaEarth, which compresses satellite imagery into a 64-dimensional vector embedding, I’ve...
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/09/2026
As of today, our forecast gives Democrats a 76% chance of flipping the House and a 47% chance of taking the Senate. The two are highly correlated: Republicans keep the Senate 99% of the time they hold the House, and Democrats take it 62% of the time they flip the House.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 18/06/2026
If a forensic accountant saw these numbers, they'd probably open an investigation. But they're looking at ordinary donations. Why do ActBlue and WinRed contributions fail Benford's Law, a famous test for financial fraud? New analysis from @bayespr.bsky.social votehub.com/2026/06/18/a...
votehub.com
Are the Campaigns Cooking the Books?
A 90-year-old fraud test flags American campaign finance as full of anomalies. What looks like fraud is just good user interface design by ActBlue and WinRed.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 08/04/2026
VoteHub projects Clayton Fuller to win the Georgia U.S. House District 14 general election.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/04/2026
NEW — Democrats are poised to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with turnout set to decide the margin in a low-salience race. We break down what to watch tonight. Read our full preview by @bayespr.bsky.social 👇 votehub.com/2026/04/07/w...
votehub.com
Wisconsin Spring Election Preview
Democrats are favored to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with margin hinging on turnout.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
sickkkkkkk!!!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
thanks man!!! hope you enjoy, its a pretty lean machine!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Hey, is that me? :) evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/e...
evanstonroundtable.com
ETHS student aims to forecast 9th District Congressional race using betting market data - Evanston RoundTable
As the Democratic primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky ramps up in its final weeks, an Evanston Township High School student is developing
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
IL9.org MODEL!! yay! After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇 Model: il9.org/odds
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Yes, this trend I saw was based off of her surprising support with "very liberals" who we thought as higher propensity in the model.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
why? I’m interested.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Official #IL09 Forecasting thread! Let's keep it here 👇
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
I wish there was data as granular, but no dice finding anything so far.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Hmmmmmm.....
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
**BTW, I don’t have an active ACCT (as it is illegal). This was someone’s account that I used to take a screenshot while out at dinner.**
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
We also increased the weight given to the midpoint and Order-Book weighted aspects, resulting in a significantly more accurate overall perspective on the race. This is IL9.org at its best!!!
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
this has like become the unofficial thread of IL-09 forecasting and data, I love it :)
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Currently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish! Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇 IL9.org
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Sick stuff, if you wouldn’t mind, could you share the methodology you used? I would love to be so enlightened :)
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Matthew Eadie @mattheweadie.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09 👇🏼 Super cool stuff il9.org
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Yes, when I was originally trying to build a model I was gonna use data from the 2022 IL-1 race which was a quite similar
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter. Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949. (there was a small break in 63’)
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter. Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949. (there was a small break in 63’)
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Thanks!! No offense taken :)
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
I genuinely hope we get more, but I am doubtful of more than one more high-quality poll. Also, no one has any clue what this district will look like (from a turnout by precinct perspective) bc it’s been so horribly boring and uncompetitive.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
I understand. #NJ11 markets were criminally overpriced, even on election night. However, the polling for this race has been Sh** other than the DFP poll that had crosstabs, but that was so long ago it’s not useful anymore.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
manifold.markets?r=SmVyb21lSF... here's a link if you want, or I could make the market. Tbh, it’s a very niche thing, so open interest might be low if you or I make one.
manifold.markets
Manifold
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
polymarket.com/event/il-07-... low volume and Bid-a-Spread is hugeeeee but not a bad option
polymarket.com
IL-07 Democratic Primary Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarket
View real-time odds on "IL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" as of February 7, 2026, and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
i was thinking of trying this for raja and stratton
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Yeah, I mean this model could be applied to basically every house and Senate race or primary. I looked around and IL7 lacks PMs in general (eg. the quick search I made though a few sites didn’t yield any results:) I could make a market on Manifold or suggest one on Kalshi too, wouldn’t be too hard.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
I was working on a model, but I have subsequently put it on the back burner. As was seen in #NJ11, don't always trust the PMs; however, I would rather not scrounge for data from semi-similar sources to bootstrap a model with IL-1 (2022) Jackson race data as a benchmark, but I digress.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 06/03/2024
On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
A graphic shows the Republican delegate count entering Super Tuesday. Donald Trump has 273 and Nikki Haley has 43. To win the nomination, 1,215 delegates are needed. There is a map that shows how many delegates are at stake in each of the 15 states that are holding primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, including Virginia, Vermont, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 20/01/2024
What is clear?
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/01/2024
The computer screen looks really cool and I wanna use it in the background for my profile because I can never get a picture that good!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/01/2024
Yeah that’s perfect. Thanks.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/01/2024
I came over from your Threads post. Could you send me the picture for the background of your account profile? I really love it.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
Hi Verge!!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.
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