iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

...also the Christian Democrats have been steadily losing support. They are now dangerously close to falling below the 5% threshold, which would be an unprecedented event. As the campaign focuses on the duel between the SPD and the AfD, the Christian Democrats continue to lose ground.

The graph shows the long-term polling trend for the Christian Democrats in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the early 2000s, their poll ratings stood at around 40 per cent. Now it is between 6 and 7 per cent, and trending downwards.

121

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

After Saxony-Anhalt, next Sunday's regional vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could be even more devastating for the Christian Democrats. If current trends continue, the SPD may end up in first place, ahead of the AfD. The Greens and BSW are struggling to clear the electoral threshold, but...

The graph shows how the various parties have been polling in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since the last regional election. While the SPD has seen a surge in the polls over the last month, the CDU has been steadily losing support.

11310

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

In diesem in der @pvs-journal.bsky.social veröffentlichten Aufsatz verorte ich Manows Buch "Spaltungslinien" in der Debatte zum Postliberalismus. Der zentralen Annahme, dass rechtspopulistische Parteien heute wirtschafts- und sozialpolitisch links stünden, widerspreche ich. rdcu.be/swtwc7WqF9ta

Titelblatt zum in der Politischen Vierteljahresschrift erschienenen Aufsatz "Ist rechts das neue links? Die postliberale Erklärung des Populismus". Der Aufsatz ist öffentlich zugänglich.

19836

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Seid einfach besser gelaunt, ihr Verzagten. Dann wird es auch wieder. Soziologische Analyse am Limit. SZ, 15.5.2026, S. 9.

050

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

The start was not too shabby 😉.

140

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

In line with the 'credibility revolution', we are thinking about research designs that allow us to get closer to causal effects. Those who use surveys have often turned to survey experiments. At the same time, survey response rates have dropped considerably. Below are the figures for the ESS.

This plot shows average response rates of the European Social Survey. Between 2002 and 2023 the have fallen from 61 to 41 per cent.

This plot breaks down ESS response rates by country. In almost all countries, the rate has gone down over time - in some cases, like Sweden, quite dramatically so.

34014

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

Multivariate analyses confirm the first impression both when we use only one wave of CSES data or all waves (which makes it necessary to use parties' populism scores based on @vdeminstitute.bsky.social's V-Party data as a proxy). The findings also can be reproduces with ESS data. 3/5

This figure shows the regression coefficients of two models indicating that losing has a stronger impact on more populist voters. The bottom part of the figure shows the marginal effect of losing for different levels of populism.

150

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 04/08/2025

This figure gives a first impression of the combined effect of populism and losing based on the fifth wave of @cses.bsky.social data. 2/5

This graph shows the negative correlation between populist attitudes and satisfaction with democracy. However, the negative effect is much more pronounced for electoral losers than winners. In other words, the more populist the attitudes, the more severely losing dampens satisfaction with democracy.

161

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

As @indubioproreto.bsky.social pointed out a few days ago, there is some interesting data from the Federal Returning Office in Germany on the age and gender divides in the general election. A few points stand out: 1) The AfD performs well across all age groups, with the exception of the oldest. 1/3

This plot show how age groups voted in the general election earlier this year in Germany. There are striking differences beween age groups and women and men. Data: Federal Returning Office.

1199

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Great to listen to the keynote by @kai-arzheimer.com. Not only a kind person but also a star of the field! @powimz.bsky.social @ipp-jgu.bsky.social

1224

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 08/06/2025

After missing my connecting train in Brussels, I am finally on my way to the @ecpr-ead.bsky.social conference. I will be presenting joint work with @nilssteiner.bsky.social on the interplay of education and cohorts in explaining differences in satisfaction with democracy. Looking forward!

This figures shows the average satisfaction with democracy for three education groups across different birth cohorts. In younger cohorts, the education gap in satisfaction with democracy is much wider. Based on waves 1 to 11 of the European Social Survey.

0424

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

In contrast, men from younger cohorts with medium and low levels of education are most likely to vote for the radical right. In general, these parties are much less popular among older cohorts and those with high levels of education, especially women. 3/5

The figures show the vote share for radical right parties broken down by six cohorts, women and men, and three levels of education. Support for these parties is higher among younger cohorts, men, and those with medium and low levels of education. Data: European Social Survey, waves 1 to 10.

361

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

We show that there are huge differences in voting behaviour between cohorts, women and men, and education groups across Europe. Educated women from younger cohorts are the strongest supporters of Green parties, while the less educated are less enthusiastic. 2/5

The figures show the vote share for Green parties broken down by six cohorts, women and men, and three levels of education. Support for these parties is higher among younger cohorts, but the differences between education groups are also highest among them. Data: European Social Survey, waves 1 to 10.

150

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

That's what we do: We read stuff and we learn things.

619020

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Hier im Überblick das Wahlverhalten nach Alter und nach Tätigkeit anhand der Daten von @infratestdimap.bsky.social. Ohne die Über-60-Jährigen sähe es für Union und SPD noch finsterer aus:

3157

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

One thing seems certain about Germany's general election on Sunday: for the first time, the former "Volksparteien" (catch all parties) will receive less than 50% of the vote. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are particularly weak among younger voters, so this trend is likely to continue. (1/2)

The graph shows the combined vote share of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in Germany against the sum of all other parties. In the 1970s these two parties won more than 90% of all votes, but on Sunday they are predicted to fall below 50% together for the first time.

28031

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Die Ausgangslage vor der #bundestagswahl ist inzwischen recht klar: Wenn 2 der 3 kleineren Parteien an der 5-Prozent-Hürde scheitern, reicht es für eine schwarz-rote Regierung. Merz, Söder, Klingbeil und Pistorius werden sich auf eine Koalition verständigen können. (1/2)

Die Abbildung zeigt die prognostizierten Ergebnisse der Parteien bei der Bundestagswahl mit der Schwankungsbreite. Daten: wahlrecht.de

22712

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Sometimes you gotta teach the classics. AI-generated images are a neat way of getting the message across. In this case, the book is (you guessed it) "Bowling Alone".

The AI-generated image shows a sad person in a bowling alley wondering where everyone is. She is alone and no one wants to join her. It alludes to Robert Putnam's book "Bowling Alone".

3170

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Here are the rank correlations for combinations of years. The ranks change over time, but it is not the case that poor areas have become high turnout areas. The underlying pattern is one of increasing social inequality between neighbourhoods.

A matrix of correlations for voter turnout in 83 urban districts in the city of Bremen.

030

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Another look at the "law of dispersion": In the German city of Bremen, the turnout rates of different neighbourhoods in Bundestag elections have diverged quite dramatically over the past four decades.

38426

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

"Contesting the Rules of the Game?" Looking forward to this great workshop co-organized with @clandwehr.bsky.social! A great group of scholars at a beautiful location.

062

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 11/11/2024

Which book am I going to discuss in class? #polisky

The picture shows a woman with a grim expression while casting her vote. She thinks of sharks.

140

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 07/11/2024

In class today, I talked about elitist thinking about democracy (can you guess the book?), which seemed almost like a comment on the US election - though I still reject that understanding of democracy.

The picture shows a smiling Hobbit who casts a vote.

020

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 07/05/2024

On my way to Lüneburg to present a joint paper with Jonas Wenker on "Losers' Dissent." Voters with more populist attitudes who lose elections are significantly less satisfied with the way democracy works than non-populist losers.

Depending on their level of populism, the graph shows how satisfied winners and losers are with the way democracy works. Data: CSES.

030

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 06/05/2024

It was wonderful to have Noam Lupu as a speaker at @powimz.bsky.social in Mainz. He presented his work with Nick Carnes on "keeping workers off the ballot." I very much look forward to reading the book they are working on.

043

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 15/01/2024

Last Thursday we had the pleasure of hosting @lhaffert.bsky.social in Mainz. Lukas gave a great talk about trade-offs in the 🇩🇪 electoral system. With increasing fragmentation, you can't have proportionality and district representation at the same time without enlarging parliament.

Lukas Haffert giving a presentation in Mainz.

180

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 18/12/2023

I am looking forward to presenting my joint work with Jonas Wenker on 'Losers' Dissent' today. Let's see what the sociologists say.

Poster with talks at the sociology department.

091

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 15/12/2023

Three great talks in the last 8 days. Eva Krick, Paula Jöst and Theresa Bernemann really kicked it!

0114

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 12/12/2023

I re-read Massey's article on the effects of segregation and put his data into figures. They show that for a given number of poor blacks and whites, the poverty rate in some neighbourhoods rises sharply with racial and class segregation - with severe negative consequences for those who live there.

This figure shows how different levels of racial and class segregation lead to different poverty rates in 16 (stylized) neighbourhoods. With higher segregation, poverty becomes more concentrated. Based on Massey, Douglas S. (1990): American Apartheid. Segregation and the Making of the Underclass. In: American Journal of Sociology 96 (2), S. 329–357.

030

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 08/12/2023

Just had the privilege of listening to a terrific talk by @theresabernemann.bsky.social on regional differences in AfD support. Great work!

1122

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 03/12/2023

This week's lecture is about why the US is such an unequal country. These books suggest that the answer has to do with a weak labour movement, the absence of a socialist/social democratic party, a narrow understanding of deservingness and racial discrimination.

Book covers of six books that deal with social policy in the United States.

091

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 27/11/2023

Another way of looking at the same trends. The median for "liberal" and "very liberal" respondents is the highest category.

001

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 20/11/2023

The German Political Sciene Association (DVPW) awards the prize for the best dissertation to Sara Gebh. Congratulations!

040

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 18/11/2023

I am very happy to have received a copy of our book 'The Democratic Regression'. It is a translation from the German version and offers a political explanation of the rise of authoritarian populism. polisky

Cover and back of the newly published book "The Democratic Regression" by Armin Schäfer & Michael Zürn.

1275

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 14/11/2023

Perceptions of the conservatism of the US Supreme Court depend heavily on how conservative respondents are themselves. Conservative respondents see SCOTUS as only 'somewhat conservative' or 'middle of the road', while liberals see it as 'conservative' or 'very conservative'. cces.gov.harvard.edu

The figure shows the perception of the US Supreme Court based on respondents ideological self-placement. The more liberal respondents are, the more conservative the they think SCOTUS is. Data from the Cooperative Election Study 2022.

192

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 10/11/2023

Take a look at these recent findings from the American Values Survey by @prripoll.bsky.social. 33% of Republicans agree that "true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country". Scary, in a country with so many guns. www.prri.org/wp-content/u...

The bar chart shows the percentage of U.S. Americans who agree to the statement that "true American patriots may have to resort
to violence in order to save our country". Source: https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/2023-AVS-Presentation.pdf

174

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 07/11/2023

I'm teaching an introductory course on data visualisation with R. Let's see if we can recreate this figure in session three. 🤔

The figure shows the share of female and male MPs in the German Bundestag per party.

130

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 28/10/2023

This term I am teaching a course on US politics and society. In one class, we are looking at 'deaths of despair'. The difference in life expectancy between the US and other rich democracies is staggering. People in Australia or Switzerland now live almost 7 years longer than people in the US.

This figure shows the difference between life expectancy in the US and the average of 21 rich democracies (mainly European countries, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada). Over time, the gap is widening dramatically.

23210

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 23/10/2023

For a presentation, I looked again at the ResPOG data to see how many reforms in Germany are implemented (ignored) despite two-thirds of the population opposing (supporting) them. In 42% of these cases, the Bundestag is not responsive. If we lower the bar to 55% support, the share is 47 percent.

This figures shows how many reform proposals are implemented in Germany when two thirds of the citizens either support or oppose the reform.

052

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 28/09/2023

"Who speaks for manual workers? Unequal congruence in the 2017 German Federal Election". No party is doing a great job, as Marie Kübler's recently published West European Politics article suggests: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

The figure shows the difference in opinion congruence between workers and MPs vs civil servants and MPs (left side) and between workers and MPs vs business owners (right sight). MPs' view are more in line with higher social classes.

The figures shows the opinion congruence between workers and MPs from six German parties for 10 items.

062

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 26/09/2023

But even more interesting is the additional breakdown by gender. Female MPs in all parties except the AfD are much more in favour of descriptive representation not only of women but of all groups than their male colleagues. 2/2

This figures show five graphs that show the support for descriptive representation among MPs by party and gender.

1160

Armin Schaefer @arminschaefer.bsky.social · 26/09/2023

For an unpublished manuscript, Claudia Landwehr and I surveyed German MPs to find out which groups they felt deserved to be represented. The differences between the parties are quite stark. From left to right, MPs become less supportive. 1/2

This figure contains five graphs that show on a scale from 1 to 7 how much German MPs support descriptive representation based on gender, class, ethnicity, age and sexual identity.

45316