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Arman Kafai

@armankafai.bsky.social
1.7K followers 421 following 1.6K posts

Trying to be the first MLS Cap Guy Current: 🚙 Data Analyst Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas ☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 6h
Quill learned pretty quick that he has to play ugly soccer. The team was excellent in defending the boxes in their win over Seattle, especially at the end of the match
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 20h
I’ll need to double check but I wouldn’t be shocked if the LAFC game *helped* that number because they got scored on 3 times instead of 4 lmao
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 20h
I just did a double take and had to verify this. Per @americansocceranalysis.com, Austin FC has the second-highest GD-xGD in MLS this year at 14.4 (#1 is Nashville at 30.62). Usually, those numbers would throw you into a playoff spot that you overperformed. No, it has them fourth to last in MLS
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
No idea. Maybe the coaching staff is trying to be lowkey? Genuine just getting info wrong? It’s bizarre to me that a team can not list players on their injury report the day before a game and then they just don’t travel and don’t make the bench. Why put anyone on there then lol
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
FC Dallas has been basically stretching the truth on their injury report the whole year for whatever reason. I mean this is bizarre at this point
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Honored to be mentioned in this piece. But seriously, it’s great to see that can look forward to avoiding really poor technical games on the pitch by removing a decent chunk of the summer matches
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American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 14/10/2026
Been a lot of chatter about how the upcoming MLS schedule change is going to affect play on the field. @kierdoyle.bsky.social decided to look exactly how. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/10...
americansocceranalysis.com
Winter Is Coming — American Soccer Analysis
For reasons unbeknownst to me, the algorithm decided to surface a lot of people talking about the upcoming change in the MLS schedule for the 2027/28 season. Maybe it’s the crisp fall air, the departu...
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
That can only last for so long. And it's surprising because the team can sit in a low block, but for example, on Saturday Urhoghide, a CB, is up in the opposing team's box tied 2-2. A draw is good away... just take the points. Quill's done an excellent job but what is the evolution of this team?
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It wasn't just the CLT game. A lot of the games are masked by great individual moments but RSL away, SKC home are a couple of examples where the game flipped after Dallas jumped out ahead and the team just kept getting hammered. They can't control games. Their way of control is attack
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It basically allows Dallas to cover its deficiencies; not the greatest technically in the middle and plays to its strength in its forwards. He's done an excellent job, but it seems like he struggles to have a Plan B.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It's really interesting how Quill has reinvented himself as this direct coach. For reference, here's where Dallas sits per @catabush.com. Look at where his New Mexico United was. It'd probably be closer to that middle glob of teams in MLS. Instead, Dallas is one of the most direct teams in MLS
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
If they did, they did a shit job of cheating
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
2 games in and a point gained. Tough game against red hot STL before Austin and Colorado.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
You gotta figure out a way to put Izoita on the pitch man. He looks really good in the limited minutes! Like I said last week, one of my players to watch for in the future
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David Beffert @dbeffert.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
#RCTID
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Kieran Doyle @kierdoyle.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
We saw this in MLS. Pressing falls off a cliff in the summer. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2022/7/...
americansocceranalysis.com
When and How MLS Teams use Defensive Pressure — American Soccer Analysis
In May, I took a look at pressing data , trying to assess where teams had shifted from last season to this one. Considering most places where MLS is played are experiencing summer weather, I figure...
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Because it’s a less active window across the world. Like the genuine activity level is lower in winter than in the summer for European clubs who are picking off MLS talent
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
All due respect to MLSNP but why is this graphic so shitty quality?
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Been looking more into MLS Next Pro and a guy who excites me is Eric Izoita. Metrics seem very good and I was telling @jeremypeterman.bsky.social he seems to be an awesome profile. Gonna need to keep my eyes on him closely
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Tim Hotze @timhotze.com · 08/10/2026
The J-League circulated this slide deck ahead of the schedule change, calling it the "valley curve" for performance in midseason where heat made performance drop vs the "mountain curve" in European leagues. aboutj.jleague.jp/seasonreview...
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The Dynamo sold Jack McGlynn on Sept. 1. Their npxG is the 3rd lowest for any team in its last 5 games, just ahead of MTL and ATX. They already weren’t a team that produced much but selling of McGlynn for sure makes that even worse. It’ll be nice not have seasons derailed due to summer transfers
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Very random question: Do we have physical data on games in extreme cold/colder temperatures vs extreme heat/hotter games? Is there any literature? I’m curious because both the K League and J League mention heat as a reason to changing their schedules but MLS never mentioned it
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Photo one is Quill and photo two is Estevez. Yes, Estevez’s weighted age continuously grew YoY but if that’s the case then Quill has to be held to the same standard right? And at that point, is it a refusal to play the academy kids or just that both do not believe they are good enough to contribute?
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
It’s been a huge problem for a while now. Tough to say who Dallas is developing from their academy. It seemed as if the club wanted to go back its roots with Quill but even he’s playing lineups that are the same age as what Estevez played (who many fans claim stifled the pipeline)
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Justin Ellis limping on his run for his goal was hilarious
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
It had to be Cavan right?
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
What a ball from Alex Freeman man. Just a great ball into space that Reyna can do something with
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Cavan Sullivan has the sauce man
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Top of the West in MLS is legitmately up for grabs. Vancouver has a brutal stretch of games coming up, all on the road. Can a team like Dallas, STL, SJ or even potential new bounce LAFC catch them? Interested to see if Vancouver can keep their #1 seed afloat. That result against DC at home…😬😬
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Almost seems like an ode to the old NHL team the Atlanta Thrashers
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
MdS has absolutely hurt LAFC if you look at the advanced metrics. I saw a commentator on MLS 360 (can’t remember who) said LAFC fans were spoiled for wanting change. Nah man. You have the resources and the talent at LAFC, your style of play has to be better!
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Sounder at Heart @sounderatheart.com · 22/09/2026
We don’t know what the Sounders have planned for the roster beyond this year but we do know they’ll have plenty of flexibility. We asked GAM expert @armankafai.bsky.social to help explain. www.sounderatheart.com/2026/09/soun...
sounderatheart.com
Sounders’ GAM stockpile provides plenty of flexibility
An analysis by a GAM expert suggests the Sounders have the resources to make a big splash in the upcoming offseason.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
We dove into why Seattle’s situation actually is pretty damn good, and is in a better situation to revamp its squad. I didn’t realize it when I was analyzing the roster profiles + GAM at first… but the Sounders could have 5 of the 6 discretionary spots open next season.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
MLS has released another update of its GAM figures. We look into who’s doing great going in 2027 and who isn’t, as the league enters a period of uncertainty with a looming CBA expiration in January ‘28. Who do you think is looking healthy going into the 2027 season?
footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
Fall 2026 GAM Release
Can we get any insights to the future of some MLS teams?
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American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 18/09/2026
We know about the hot hand, but what do we think about hot feet? 😈 @kierdoyle.bsky.social tried to port the hot hand theory over from basketball to soccer and it's maybe sorta kinda a thing www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/9/...
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Normal club would put out a press release saying that this happened by the way.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is something I just wanted to point out (and shoutout Daniel for clarification) but just because a deal is done doesn’t mean the team gets the money to be used as GAM instantly. They must actually receive the payment before it can be converted; you can’t have money that you don’t have yet
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cata @catabush.com · 17/09/2026
Daniel Job is a really interesting guy and his transfer to FC Dallas raises a lot of questions about process, player evaluation, and league translation. In the closer look, I try to flesh out what a talent eval workflow could look like, and why it's harder than just "this player good."
post-match-report.leaflet.pub
September 16: adjusting the job prior
#bayesianlover
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
MLS has released another update of its GAM figures. We look into who’s doing great going in 2027 and who isn’t, as the league enters a period of uncertainty with a looming CBA expiration in January ‘28. Who do you think is looking healthy going into the 2027 season?
footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
Fall 2026 GAM Release
Can we get any insights to the future of some MLS teams?
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David Gass @empiregass.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
STL going to a cup final in 1 window 👀 Revs top 4 in 2 Etc Etc
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Also, an MLS rebuild shouldn't really take 4-5 windows. You have the international market; you don't need to pray for a draft pick or a lottery.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
4 windows puts you at the start of the 2028-29 season. Not sure I'd admit this in public, especially with your rival opening a brand new stadium in the city's limits. Understand it may be selling Mehmedi/Hall and using those funds to bring in new players but probably wouldn't say it like this!
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Jon Arnold @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Eric Wynalda's wife wasn't surprised when he told her the news he'd taken a job managing a relegationed-threatened club in Estonia, but he concedes he still probably should've asked her before accepting. I asked the World Cup veteran how, why & ... really? Estonia? www.usatoday.com/story/sports...
usatoday.com
Why is USMNT vet Eric Wynalda coaching in Estonia? He says it's for the future of American soccer
The manager long has criticized the U.S. Soccer establishment and now is working in a tiny European country, hoping to help young Americans who want to find a different pathway.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Was gonna do a post about some metrics that makes Petar Musa my MVP candidate but it's literally "#2 behind Messi" in every offensive metric. He's been incredible... and insane how Messi has just been so good in MLS as he ages on
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Don’t know if this has made it onto here but the Korean Pro Footballers Association is calling for the league to flip from a spring to winter schedule to the European calendar, which would be joining MLS + Japan. This is more due to heat, which again was a bigger point of the JLeague’s reasoning
koreatimes.co.kr
Pro football players' association calls on top league to switch to fall-spring schedule - The Korea Times
The advocacy group for professional football players on Thursday called on the top domestic league to switch to the fall-spring schedule to better...
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Jon Arnold @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Brian Schwake is from Chicago but arrived in Tennessee via Scotland & Spain - with a critical detour in Luxembourg. Now, he's chasing the all-time MLS clean sheet record, pushing for the Supporters' Shield & preparing for another showdown with Lionel Messi & Inter Miami.
usatoday.com
Brian Schwake took the long road to Nashville. Now he's making a USMNT push
The 25-year-old goalkeeper felt leaving for Europe at a young age was his only chance but now is standing out for the top team in MLS.
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Which wouldn’t be possible without any of the early work @marcmachado.bsky.social did compiling every GAM trade since 2022
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Also thanks for flagging this down!
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Of course! Yeah I’d be shocked if there wasn’t an extension much like what we saw with Rusnak/Cubas. Seems like that’s the path for a lot of players to shed the potential tag
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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
They 100% hit the cap
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