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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Cavan Sullivan has the sauce man

Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Top of the West in MLS is legitmately up for grabs. Vancouver has a brutal stretch of games coming up, all on the road. Can a team like Dallas, STL, SJ or even potential new bounce LAFC catch them? Interested to see if Vancouver can keep their #1 seed afloat. That result against DC at home…😬😬

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Almost seems like an ode to the old NHL team the Atlanta Thrashers

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

MdS has absolutely hurt LAFC if you look at the advanced metrics. I saw a commentator on MLS 360 (can’t remember who) said LAFC fans were spoiled for wanting change. Nah man. You have the resources and the talent at LAFC, your style of play has to be better!

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Sounder at Heart @sounderatheart.com · 22/09/2026

We don’t know what the Sounders have planned for the roster beyond this year but we do know they’ll have plenty of flexibility. We asked GAM expert @armankafai.bsky.social to help explain. www.sounderatheart.com/2026/09/soun...

sounderatheart.com

Sounders’ GAM stockpile provides plenty of flexibility

An analysis by a GAM expert suggests the Sounders have the resources to make a big splash in the upcoming offseason.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

We dove into why Seattle’s situation actually is pretty damn good, and is in a better situation to revamp its squad. I didn’t realize it when I was analyzing the roster profiles + GAM at first… but the Sounders could have 5 of the 6 discretionary spots open next season.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

MLS has released another update of its GAM figures. We look into who’s doing great going in 2027 and who isn’t, as the league enters a period of uncertainty with a looming CBA expiration in January ‘28. Who do you think is looking healthy going into the 2027 season?

footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

Fall 2026 GAM Release

Can we get any insights to the future of some MLS teams?

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American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 18/09/2026

We know about the hot hand, but what do we think about hot feet? 😈 @kierdoyle.bsky.social tried to port the hot hand theory over from basketball to soccer and it's maybe sorta kinda a thing www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/9/...

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Normal club would put out a press release saying that this happened by the way.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This is something I just wanted to point out (and shoutout Daniel for clarification) but just because a deal is done doesn’t mean the team gets the money to be used as GAM instantly. They must actually receive the payment before it can be converted; you can’t have money that you don’t have yet

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cata @catabush.com · 17/09/2026

Daniel Job is a really interesting guy and his transfer to FC Dallas raises a lot of questions about process, player evaluation, and league translation. In the closer look, I try to flesh out what a talent eval workflow could look like, and why it's harder than just "this player good."

post-match-report.leaflet.pub

September 16: adjusting the job prior

#bayesianlover

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

Fall 2026 GAM Release

Can we get any insights to the future of some MLS teams?

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David Gass @empiregass.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

STL going to a cup final in 1 window 👀 Revs top 4 in 2 Etc Etc

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

4 windows puts you at the start of the 2028-29 season. Not sure I'd admit this in public, especially with your rival opening a brand new stadium in the city's limits. Understand it may be selling Mehmedi/Hall and using those funds to bring in new players but probably wouldn't say it like this!

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Jon Arnold @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Eric Wynalda's wife wasn't surprised when he told her the news he'd taken a job managing a relegationed-threatened club in Estonia, but he concedes he still probably should've asked her before accepting. I asked the World Cup veteran how, why & ... really? Estonia? www.usatoday.com/story/sports...

usatoday.com

Why is USMNT vet Eric Wynalda coaching in Estonia? He says it's for the future of American soccer

The manager long has criticized the U.S. Soccer establishment and now is working in a tiny European country, hoping to help young Americans who want to find a different pathway.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Was gonna do a post about some metrics that makes Petar Musa my MVP candidate but it's literally "#2 behind Messi" in every offensive metric. He's been incredible... and insane how Messi has just been so good in MLS as he ages on

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Don’t know if this has made it onto here but the Korean Pro Footballers Association is calling for the league to flip from a spring to winter schedule to the European calendar, which would be joining MLS + Japan. This is more due to heat, which again was a bigger point of the JLeague’s reasoning

koreatimes.co.kr

Pro football players' association calls on top league to switch to fall-spring schedule - The Korea Times

The advocacy group for professional football players on Thursday called on the top domestic league to switch to the fall-spring schedule to better...

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Jon Arnold @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Brian Schwake is from Chicago but arrived in Tennessee via Scotland & Spain - with a critical detour in Luxembourg. Now, he's chasing the all-time MLS clean sheet record, pushing for the Supporters' Shield & preparing for another showdown with Lionel Messi & Inter Miami.

usatoday.com

Brian Schwake took the long road to Nashville. Now he's making a USMNT push

The 25-year-old goalkeeper felt leaving for Europe at a young age was his only chance but now is standing out for the top team in MLS.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Which wouldn’t be possible without any of the early work @marcmachado.bsky.social did compiling every GAM trade since 2022

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Tim Hotze @timhotze.com · 03/09/2026

And it still hasn't been announced that MLS has approved the deal, which was sent to them early Wednesday AM. (I think it's coming but.... the terms of this deal have clearly made MLS HQ pause)

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

We’ve talked about it a while on FAM but the an overlooked reason Miami has been able to add pieces the way they have into their squad is because of Meghan Cameron, their director of player personnel. Can see all the salary cap tricks used (including this tidbit from Tom)

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Tim Hotze @timhotze.com · 03/09/2026

@armankafai.bsky.social here's what I was referring to

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Tim Keech @timkeech.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Daniel Job is such a strange story. Standout offensive data in short minutes every year. Everyone says incredible dribbler but liability off the ball. No "football brain". Released on a free. Plays in the second tier and adds goals/assists (at a low level) now he is a $5m player after 6 months.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

FWIW Job is smashing the Norwegian second division. Seen some metrics that look really good for him even at that level. I’m just curious to see if it’ll translate to anything this season specifically. Coaches often are hesitant to add new signings to the rotation in in the midst of a playoff push

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Of course MLS gets hosting priority (and @timhotze.com basically made the case why for this)

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Really, really hope that they make MLS teams go play away when they enter the cup like they do in Germany. USL fans would pack the stadium to watch their team try to take down an MLS side. Often times, we see MLS teams play in either stadiums that isn’t their main one or amongst really small crowds

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Joseph Lowery @joeclowery.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

👀 Sources: MLS is fully returning to the U.S. Open Cup. All 27 U.S.-based MLS teams will participate in a revamped version of the country's longest-running soccer competition 🏆 Reporting with @benwright.bsky.social for @backheeled.com ⤵️

backheeled.com

Sources: MLS to return all of its teams to the U.S. Open Cup

All 27 U.S.-based MLS teams will return to a revamped version of the country's longest-running soccer competition.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Isn’t this the complex situation where the Union get 50% of whatever he was sold for but that’s also split between NYCFC/Red Bull?

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Boy that Sunday Night Soccer was a rollercoaster

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Alright, yall got me to stop being lazy. Here are some realistic changes I’d make to the MLS Roster Rules, with my reasoning and an example at the bottom. Enjoy everyone:

open.substack.com

Simple, yet effective: Changing the MLS Roster Rules

I've seen and heard a lot of ideas, but there doesn't need to be a complete overhaul for big change

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

LAFC score more than one goal challenge

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Bradley Carnell not playing Neil Pierre and Cavan Sullivan is looking insanely stupid game after game. I really don’t get the thought process and to see how they’ve playing now is incredible

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Dejan Joveljic has been apart of two cash for player trades in MLS. That by itself isn’t weird, but the fact that both trades have come as surprises in certain aspects makes it a talking point. We dive into the trade what it means for both the Sounders and Sporting Kansas City.

footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

Analyzing another Dejan Joveljic trade

Every time Joveljic is traded, he’s caused plenty of debate. What’s the situation this time?

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

As we mentioned when the rumor with VAN came out, Crew will waive him. Revs will bid up to an amount they want to pay. The difference is what the Crew will buyout. I think technically you could go through waiver order but it’ll be the same logistical steps Waive -> Buyout remaining

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

This is very funny when you see this all together

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

Analyzing another Dejan Joveljic trade

Every time Joveljic is traded, he’s caused plenty of debate. What’s the situation this time?

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Tim Hotze @timhotze.com · 25/08/2026

Cupps is going on loan to the 2nd div in Scotland to a team that has real financial constraints, so it's really about minutes. Asked Andrew Gutman, whose 1st pro deal was w/Celtic, yesterday about what he thought Cupps could learn in Scotland. Here's what he said.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Curious if anyone has any insight, but the Scottish barrage of MLS signings has been very interesting because it isn't starters. It's CJ Fodrey, Jacob Murrell, and Christopher Cupps. Wonder what they're seeing here, or is it just saying hey, the level of MLS is better so we want a piece of that

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I can’t really recall, but have we seen a team like SKC where new ownership has flipped the team when it comes to spending in this drastic of a way?

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American Soccer Analysis @americansocceranalysis.com · 23/08/2026

Did you watch the Sounders last night and are wondering about all the Tacoma kids who played? Excited about Cavan Sullivan? Do we have the article for you. @kierdoyle.bsky.social tried to figure out how good MLSNP kids actually are. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/8/...

americansocceranalysis.com

Replication Project-ish: Projecting MLS Performance based on MLS Next Pro Data — American Soccer Analysis

By Kieran Doyle In 2022, Daniel Dinsdale and Joe Gallagher of Stats Perform (the artist formerly known as Opta) released an arXiv of a paper titled “ Transfer Portal: Accurately Forecasting the...

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Eric Quill saying this and then subbing on Petar Musa down 4-0 at half time seems pretty wild?

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

The collective response I’ve seen from this tweet has been “Holy shit”. Monster in league offer from SKC for Nico Fernandez. This isn’t your mom’s Sporting Kansas City

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Jason Davis @davisjason.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

My guy @armankafai.bsky.social came by last night to help me figure out the proposed MLS playoff format and run through storylines for a few Americans in Europe. New episode of The Best Soccer Show. open.spotify.com/episode/1Jwi...

open.spotify.com

MLS Plans Weird Playoff Format, Americans Abroad Excitement

The Best Soccer Show · Episode

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Jason Davis @davisjason.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

It's last minute notice, but The Best Soccer Show is live in 18 minutes to talk about MLS playoff formats and lots more with me and @armankafai.bsky.social. Come by. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIqK...

youtube.com

MLS Playoffs Stucture, Americans Abroad Excitement Levels

YouTube video by The Best Soccer Show

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Yes I know the answer is “money” but you really don’t need 2/3 of the league qualifying for the post season. Just trim this number down to 16 and you can keep the double chance format. 1-8: Play for a spot in the QF. 9-16: Single elimination Then you just keep going as is. Why do we need 20?

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

For anyone who was wondering “What if your DPs were all on the defensive side?” It looks Iike we’re getting closer to that experiment in Philadelphia

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Petar Musa FC with a banger when Dallas had nothing and Austin was gaining momentum.

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The MLS availability report is a joke. Kaick listed as out on the report and now is on the bench. What is the point of this report?

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Arman Kafai @armankafai.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

This is some absolute great analysis from Nate, who’s been cranking out some good content lately. The point of contact zones was super interesting to me; how close are teams contacting the ball in relation to the goal (which seems trainable). Highly recommend the read

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