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Free newsletter: When will the AI bubble burst? When the money runs out. Raising debt for AI data centers is becoming untenable, infrastructure break-even points keep getting further away, and many of VC's AI investments look like dead money. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

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If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly premium…

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If you have the Anthropic S-1, please message me at ezitron.76 on signal, i will protect your identity

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 25/09/2026

Reuters got some of the IPO docs. Anthropic is a total dog of a company. Spent $12.6bn to make $4.6bn in revenue in 2025, $7.33bn of which was compute costs. Operating loss of $8bn. Losses getting worse year over year. Amazing stuff www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Summary
Companies
• Anthropic IPO could value the company at more than $2
trillion
• Anthropic lost $42 billion in 2025
• Al lab spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year
• Operating loss widened to $8.06 billion in 2025 from $2.98 billion in 2024
• Execs, industry analysts have expressed concerns over harms of Al tech
Sept 28 (Reuters) - Anthropic is making a massive bet that Al will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.
But the cost to get there will be staggering. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming year, according to the
prospectus.

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Premium newsletter: This is part two to my Hater's Guide To AI debt, a massive guide to how skyrocketing treasury yields, investor anxiety and ever-expanding data center costs have made "AI factories" economically unviable - even if they had demand. www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-...

wheresyoured.at

Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)

The year is 2026, and you are a hyperscaler CEO. You zip up your Patagonia Vest, type UDPATE CALENDER WHERE WHY to your Muse agent, and it tells you that your CFO has sent you an email about…

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Mar Hicks @histoftech.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

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I love that we can run a whole economy on this

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make no mistake: anyone telling you AI is “just like the dot com bubble” or “just like Amazon web services or uber” is beyond misinformed, verging into the realms of actually wanting to know less about the world. It means they have never actually looked at any of the numbers. Or they can’t count.

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Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.com · 27/09/2026

The greatest secret in finance is that nobody knows what they’re investing in and another is that a lot of the “very smart people” with “lots of data” base their powerful “financial models” based on extremely simplistic scenarios, many of them as obvious as “growth continues as it always has”

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Four days ago, a scientist was surprised by the news that Anthropic discovered new virus genes for making DNA. He says he’s been studying them for years—and feeding his data to Anthropic’s AI as part of his own research. Coincidence? Here’s my story. nyti.ms/3VSWayc

nyti.ms

Did Anthropic’s A.I. Really Make a Scientific Discovery on Its Own? (Gift Article)

An expert at the University of Copenhagen said his team had been sharing its research with the company’s A.I. model, Claude, and that its new finding matched their work.

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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 27/09/2026

another day, another bit of evidence that the scientists who willingly hand over proprietary information to AI firms may experience some consequences

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Everyone keeps reaching for the “too big to fail” button because it is fundamentally harder for them to imagine what happens if it’s too big to succeed. The unique conditions in play make a bailout impossible. This is also an ideological bubble to the point I think it creates a schism in society.

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The level of financial misalignment is as bad as I’ve been warning, and you’re going to see headline after headline of stuff I’ve said in the newsletter for years. I say this with both pride and sadness because being right is going to be many layers of horrible.

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David Graeber Institute @davidgraeberinst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

AI has lost the Mandate of Heaven I’m afraid. WSJ saying it’s a “when” the ai bubble bursts. SNL dabbing on their biggest names for being weird. FT says 50% of chips sold in 2026 and 2027 have nowhere to go. Hundreds of billions short on revenue for even 10% ROIC. A disaster.

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This is from, Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology. David Graeber wrote the piece back in 2004.

"It’s not just that anarchism does not tend to have much use for high theory. It’s that it is primarily concerned with forms of practice; it insists, before anything else, that one’s means must be consonant with one’s ends; one cannot create freedom through authoritarian means; in fact, as much as possible, one must oneself, in one’s relations with one’s friends and allies, embody the society one wishes to create."

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The techbros don't want you to see this trailer. Pass it on.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 26/09/2026

I’m increasingly of the belief that we’ve never truly left the Great Financial Crisis. Everything we’re dealing with today started there, and every excess and problem stems from the US government’s failure to contain or eradicate its causes.

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Joined the Times Tech Report to talk about the $200bn+ NVIDIA GPUs sitting in warehouses, and how Oracle issuing a force majeure notice over expected delays to its data center project in New Mexico is a wrench in basically every AI data center debt deal. youtu.be/1CbvhJO8Nfo?...

youtu.be

Hyperscalers are hiding a massive secret about uninstalled GPUs | Ed Zitron

YouTube video by The Tech Report

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 27/09/2026

That’s right

Further reading:
- Oracle feels the force (FTAV)
- US data centres 'are short six NYCs of electricity (FTAV)
— Where's all the AI chips? (Ed Zitron)

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Ars Technica @arstechnica.com · 25/09/2026

While Musk has attacked the film as both a “hit piece” and a “psy op,” it’s been critically well-received thus far.

arstechnica.com

We have a trailer for Musk documentary Elon called a "hit piece"

Oscar-winning documentarian Alex Gibney focuses on the world's wealthiest man.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 25/09/2026

Analysts from UBS, Barclays and Wells Fargo expect — by which I mean they are setting expectations — that Anthropic and OpenAI will account for at least $444 billion of hyperscaler earnings in the next three years. Without that spend, the revenue isn't there. www.wheresyoured.at/concentratio....

That spike in costs comes from Stephen Ju of UBS’ estimates, and even if you think that’s a little high, I would estimate that the $250 billion of commitments made by OpenAI alone on Microsoft Azure will likely mean Microsoft is expecting tens of billions more than $52.5 billion in FY27 and beyond.

I also need to express how much more money this is than these companies are already spending on compute.

In 2025, OpenAI spent (per my own reporting, assuming 50% of sales and marketing was compute expenses) a little over $29.5 billion on compute. Per The Information’s reporting, it spent $12.1 billion (with no affordance for sales and marketing) in the first quarter of 2026, and while we don’t know how much it spent in Q2 (when revenues grew by $1 billion quarter-over-quarter), it’s fair to assume that it’ll spend another $12 billion or so a quarter for the rest of the year, for a total of $48.4 billion, which is less than the $50 billion it said it expected to spend on compute in 2026.

Per Barclays and UBS, OpenAI is projected to spend $15 billion on AWS and $12.5 billion on Google Cloud in 2027, with Wells Fargo estimating it will spend $22.9 billion for the first two quarters of 2027 making it reasonable to assume at least $45 billion, for a total of $72.5 billion… which, even then, seems a little low based on what it’s already on track to spend in 2026.

Then you have to add in another $30 billion from Oracle’s $300 billion, five-year-long deal with OpenAI, which the Wall Street Journal reports is expected to drive $30 billion in revenue starting in 2027, though my own research found that it could be more than $50 billion or $60 billion

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Benn Jordan @bennjordan.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It would've been easy to bash Flock in Senate today, but the reality is that this crisis would've not happened had there been any form of regulation or guard rails. So, let's demand them. And let's vote with the same ferocity we post with.

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@iwriteok.bsky.social Declaring force majeure on the podcast

Finance | Corporate Finance
Oracle Cites 'Force Majeure' to Shield Itself on Controversial
Data Center

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The Hidden Recession Beneath The AI Bubble w/ Paul Kedrosky | Better Offline

Had Paul Kedrosky back on the show to talk about how AI is distorting the bond markets to the point that it’s changing the price on US Treasuries, how AI data center economics don’t make sense, and the troubling things he’s hearing out of Anthropic. youtu.be/7boszzOAeJw?... Linktr.ee/betteroffline

youtu.be

YouTube video by Better Offline

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Timnit Gebru @timnitgebru.blacksky.app · 24/09/2026

I'm gonna do a recap of this week when I get a breather because the hype DDOS strikes daily 🙄 As for the whole CRISPR Dario "discovery" announcement:

Fome @at_fome

I work in CRISPR discovery research. This is one of the most exaggerated nothing-burgers ever and would be laughed out of the room if a human scientist attempted to publish something like this. (cont.)

quote tweeting Min Choi (@minchoi)

This is wild.

Claude just found something humans missed.

It spotted a hidden repeat pattern in raw bacteriophage DNA...

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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Force Majeure is generally used as a kind of “act of god” measure for energy companies when wars or weather makes it impossible to deliver service. In this case Oracle is using it as a means of saying it shouldn’t pay in the event the data center isn’t ready. It is completely unprecedented.

Oracle Corp. is moving to shield itself from racking up expenses on a massive data center being built in New Mexico, adding a fresh wrinkle to a project beset by opposition and regulatory setbacks.
The technology giant sent the project's developer, a unit of Blue Owl Capital Inc., a notice citing force majeure, according to people familiar with the situation. Rather than trying to walk away as the site's main tenant, Oracle is attempting to put off payments should the data center dubbed Project Jupiter get derailed and fail to come online in 2028 as planned, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters.

Even if the force majeure notice is intended as a precautionary step to win some wiggle room, it risks alarming lenders backing the project.
The debt tied to the development is already trading at stressed levels, below 90 cents on the dollar, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
A group of about 20 banks provided an $18 billion loan to help fund the construction of the data center campus, one of several mega-debt deals that have helped bankroll the AI infrastructure boom.
The notice also stands to raise questions yet again about the resilience of data center leases.
Contracts often include a clause allowing customers to back out if service doesn't begin as scheduled. Earlier this year, Alphabet Inc's Google agreed to pay Elon Musk's SpaceX for computing power through mid-2029, for example, but reserved the right to terminate if it didn't gain access by a certain date.

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$ORCL - ORACLE SHARES FALL 5.4% PREMARKET AFTER REPORT CO SENDS 'FORCE MAJEURE' NOTICE TO NEW MEXICO DATA CENTER DEVELOPER

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Man standing in front of big neon sign that says “is that good?” As the crowd chants the same. Art by Mattie lubchansky

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Larry Ellison when he needs to pay a data center lease

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