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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 5h

It's just such an odd distinction to repeatedly make. Like discussing whether the pipes or the gas are more important to enable your boiler to function. Economic growth wasn't great before modern state institutions existed....

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 9h

I don't know how much it would cost. I don't know what it would do and wouldn't. What it would protect us from and not. But then, nor do those proposing it know any of that.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 10h

I'm more optimistic. If the UK and the EU both want to go for it then a "big rocks" (euro, Schengen, budget) framework deal can be done and that is sufficient for a referendum then join negotiation following a yes vote.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 11h

I'd assumed Tom Cruise was playing Peter Beardsley. Weird casting.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 11h

To answer whilst in less of a rush- if the EU wants to go down the UK join route then the Euro and Schengen will be on the table (or at least in the fudge category). If they are not then we are likely having an EEA discussion rather than EU discussion anyhow.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13h

Scenario. 1. Labour manifesto commitment. 2. No Le Pen victory (a maybe- nb UK inter-governmentalist) 3. Election victory (perhaps with Lib Dems). 4. Open negotiations 2027, 28 or 29. 5. Framework with no Schengen/euro agreed plus budget outline. 6. Referendum 2030/31. 7. Joining process.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 14h

Excellent @samfr.bsky.social on UK and likelihood of joining the EU. Only thing I slightly disagree on - there is a scenario whereby we vote to join in the early 2030s rather than mid. Lots of "ifs" as with all the scenarios but worth keeping as a scenario. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...

samf.substack.com

The route back into the EU

Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 14h

What it did was build it by focusing in on major population centres and military bases (so didn't just copy across from Israel). I've no idea whether this is a good approach, I was just amused by the symmetry.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 14h

I asked ChatGPT to work out the cost of a British iron dome- let's call it "Britannia Shield" - by applying the capability of the Israeli system plus new tech coming on stream to the UK strategic defence context. It came up with a low ball estimate of £10bn. Spooky that.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Perhaps the innovative market will reverse the ageing process just as it will magically resolve climate change.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

And also, "the state is the problem" risks ending up here.

Kemi Badenoch claims Margaret Thatcher's privatisation of water sector 'a success'

MERIDIAN

|

POLITICS |

CONSERVATIVE PARTY

KEMI BADENOCH

|

①

Monday 5 October 2026 at 7:45pm

Kit Bradshaw

Political Correspondent, ITV News Meridian

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The big risk overshadowing the whole endeavour is that Badenoch ends up stuck fighting Farage for the dwindling pool of voters who think Brexit was a good idea. And, of course, Thatcher was behind the single market. Mostly.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yes, I see "it's state overreach" as a diagnosis as possibly overreach in and of itself....

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

One thing it isn't though is populism. It is a proper intellectual case. The story is very different to Farage's - that all our problems come from elites allowing foreigners to destroy our country. Though there is definite policy overlap (and remember Thatcher played with Powellite themes).

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Perhaps now is the time to pivot from security to dynamism as a political strategy. And that's what the document attempts to do. She might not be wrong- security, control etc do feel increasingly heavy. But the state as the issue doesn't quite feel of the times- despite distrust of Government.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This new document from Badenoch is, in essence, Thatcherism 101. Basically, the problem is state overreach. It does give an intellectual underpinning to her project. But framing the political challenge in this way is far less clear cut than the 70s. Not least after 14 years of Conservative rule.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I also went on the "Wiltshire cycleway" to Salisbury which sounds wonderful. There was lots of signage. Turns out it's a largely negligible effort to get cyclists out of the way of cars rather than vice versa.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Well, they are very misguided. I won't be rushing back there. Just not a pleasant place to spend time- but it should be.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The New Forest is stunning, and yes I was cycling around but some of the roads that are 30mph, 40mph or 60mph are ridiculous. Honestly, how on earth can you have a 30mph High Street in this day and age?

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

So odd. I honestly can't see how anyone on Hampshire County Council could see it as a good way to be.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This weekend I was staying in Lyndhurst in Hampshire. It has a lovely High Street which you can't cross from one side to another even from 8am on a *Sunday* because it has cars back to back at 30mph. Why do people want this?

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

And the one on land banking that house building lobby says clears them. When, in effect, it says "yeah, they land bank but their business model requires them to."

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

And also.... bsky.app/profile/andr...

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Having listened to the Griffiths interview this morning. The proposals basically mean: - Few houses will be built outside of urban England. - What will be built will be high end, low amenity, fossil dependent, isolated, poor quality. - Infrastructure will come at a huge environmental cost.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

And if you need an explanatory document over something so sensitive it's time to have a word with yourself.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yes, on top of everything else, it's breathtaking incompetence.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

His refusal to confront this and call it out from the off is precisely what has led here. And his leadership is already doomed. As are the Greens unless they radically shift direction.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The UK becoming one big fossil fuel fired data centre for US hyperscalers with a few isolated housing developments with no local amenities scattered around them is certainly a vision. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Tories to pledge to scrap Environment Agency and Natural England

Shadow chancellor will also promise to scrap affordable homes regulations as part of strategy to refocus on growth

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

From time to time, for some psychological reason, there is a significant proportion of every population who like to cosplay the victim, take revenge on their fellow citizens and dish out some collective punishment. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

theguardian.com

Brazil’s presidential race goes to second round as Flávio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Lula

Far-right challenger and son of disgraced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro put in a stronger than expected showing, with Lula calling the result ‘unexpected’

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It's also about their close social circle.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Yes, we shouldn't want the tax system to incentivise "bung the excess in a pension and avoid the cliff edge". But it's about priorities.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

There are lots of things in the tax system that need resolving but often they come at a high political or economic capital cost. Property taxes, capital gains, etc. There are lots of other things to spend scarce political capital on. Not sure the £100k cliff edge is a good choice.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In our clear economic interest. In our security interest. The public are broadly behind it. Against: something, something about division (ie angry right wing people will spit in a camera on tiktok). It will be a fight but we've got a responsibility here. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

theguardian.com

Half of UK wants to rejoin EU and backing it could drive up Labour vote, megapoll finds

Exclusive: Findings will bolster those in No 10 who want to negotiate on re-entry but some senior figures remain wary

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

A cost of living policy win: sort out this nonsense. Plus with insurance. It should not only be the obsessives who get a good deal.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Who could have predicted opening doors to zealots and racists would lead here? If only there were a recent historical example to have learned from.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

When you look at it: the NHS adopted tech developed through US and Israeli military and law enforcement aligned to a US administration that is weaponising dependence. Staggering when you consider it.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Now this is what take back control looks like. And Manchester has created a data and logistics health stack that doesn't rely on Palantir and superior to it. No reason why this can't happen across all UK public services. For security. And frankly decency. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

giftarticle.ft.com

Andy Burnham searches for UK alternative to Palantir

Prime minister’s ‘buy British’ push triggers hunt to find replacement for controversial US tech group awarded health service and defence contracts

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Reposted by Anthony Painter

Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

NEET time series by age (16-17 is ONS seasonally adjusted, other age-groups 4-quarter moving average).

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Whatever the deal the antis will pull some egregious nonsense so it might as well be "24 hours to save the pound". Pro-join have to go through the firewall either way. 2 is too risky economically for us even if long-term benefits.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yes, really good prompt. That also shows that the 2010s decline was due to lower pregnancy/higher education rates in the group not the wider changes to welfare, apprenticeships etc. The male rate is incredibly persistent.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yes, it's a go to. And clearly ineffective. Young people haven't just randomly decided to become lazy all of a sudden.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So this just misses the point entirely. Likely impact will be short-term before shunting the problem elsewhere in the system - like the mental health system with associated costs, when it will end up costing the welfare system more in the medium term. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Conservatives pledge 'tough love' benefit rules for under-25s

The party says it would bring in new work requirements for young people claiming Universal Credit.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

1. Milburn's analysis is right- there is a *systemic* issue and, indeed, there has been for some considerable time. 2. The current particular issue is related to Covid and mental health. So support (mentors, coaches, health professionals, volunteering) better than hard welfare conditionality.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The NEET rate basically hasn't changed for the whole of this century (except post-GFC and post Covid). It's been the same with tougher welfare sanctions and weaker. More apprenticeships and fewer. Higher employer national insurance and lower. I draw two conclusions from this....

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yes, it needs to be at the point of the process where the critical issues have been resolved in principle.

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