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anthonypainter.bsky.social

@anthonypainter.bsky.social
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 12h
Man City hid *£900 million*. The scale of this is extraordinary and they are guilty of all charges. Stripping all titles and a fine at least equal to the deceit would seem appropriate.
The purpose of these schemes was found to have been to artificially inflate the club's revenues, and reduce its costs, by more than £900 million during the affected period, to appear to comply with financial rules. The consequence of this, as the Commission
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Yes, if we truly think "AI is a new species" as Bill Gates appears to then I concede software is more intelligent than us. In fact, bricks and cheese are too.
"This is truly an evolutionary event,” Gates said. “We have created an intelligent species that, in many respects, is already smarter than we are, and over the next several years at kind of exponentially improving level will be insanely smarter than we are.”
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I've just looked at the bar chart for the second time today. I cannot make head nor tail of it.
Mrp forecast
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
So this is fabulous.
Lady in blueLady in blue 2. With hawk man
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
If you are going to add £2bn to the national debt to make an "on your side" point, could I softly suggest doing so by reducing electricity bills that everyone pays and supports energy transition rather than petrol/diesel that impairs it? Whilst much of it goes to retailers anyhow....
1. ED DAVEY PROMISES TAX CUTS TO WOO VOTERS: Ed

Davey wants voters to back the Lib Dems to cut taxes. The centrist leader is making waves at conference by calling on the government to cut fuel duty by 10p, bringing down prices at the pumps by 12p a liter, and get rid of the planned 3p hike in January.

Pumped up. In a Sunday Times interview Davey said taxes
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
At the heart of the argument is this graph which, more than any other, tells the story of manufacturing in the UK over the past decade and a half. Yet, it's as if it doesn't exist. Striking.
UK vehicle production 2000-2026
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'm going to put my neck out here and say there's more than one.
New wild cat species discovered - with only one known living member
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
This is excellent from Gordon Brown. Robert Putnam's The Upswing transplanted to the UK. Change comes from people leaning into civic life and active citizenship again. Manages to evade too much nostalgia and remain future facing. Idealistic but boy do we need some idealism.
The future starts with us- Gordon brown
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Thank goodness we have crypto billionaires to save us from "cartel" politics. They are truly the Bruce Waynes we need.
Dele article screen grab
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Bravo. Now this needs to be a thread that runs through everything. We are shifting to clean energy because these terrible scenes in Stourbridge, Pershore, and Stoke will become ever more frequent if we - acting locally and globally - do not adapt and shift off fossil fuels- relentlessly. Win this.
The Prime Minister also revealed he planned to commission firefighting planes, as used to douse flames in Europe and the US, to combat the spread of wildfires.

He said the country has to "face up" to the "changing climate” and needs to transition to "more clean energy".

Ad
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
@hannahritchie.bsky.social has produced a nifty tool where you can track global production of major crops. Watching these two like a hawk (hops aren't on there). hannahritchie.github.io/world-agricu...
Coffee productionBarley production
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
So my parents' town is on fire. Seems that Google is updating its maps so we can keep track. Which is great. For another day but the anti-net zero lot can hang their heads in shame. Of course, areas where Reform have made recent gains are on fire.
Stourbridge wildfire
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Notable in today's growth figures is the jump in business investment. The "AI is supporting growth" thesis firming up given that it's strongly centred on technology. And the most significant growth sector amongst services (which are driving growth and exports) is ICT.....
Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is now estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2026, and to be 2.7% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the growth are increases in information and communication technology, and other machinery and equipment, especially hardware investment.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Excellent stuff @johnthornhill.bsky.social. I love the way "and morally valuable" sneaked in there as if morality can be abstracted from humanity like code.
Quote in ft article
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Some testimony on prison conditions in El Salvador. A civilised democracy doesn't send prisoners to where this treatment is commonplace.
8. One of the people we spoke with was an 18-year-old construction worker who said that police beat prison newcomers with batons for an hour. He said that when he denied being a gang member, they sent him to a dark basement cell with 320 detainees, where prison guards and other detainees beat him every day. On one occasion, one guard beat him so severely that it broke a rib.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Luckily this "abroad" place doesn't have its own Government, politics, border or law. Can't believe we've missed this solution for so long.
UK politics live

Reform UK would free up jail spaces in UK by sending offenders abroad, claims Zia Yusuf

1m ago
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
And in fact he says that explicitly.
community, you don't have to. BlueSky the app as it stands today isn't going to change. The public part of it is popular, it's growing. So we're not going to mess with that.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Toured Munich and environs by bike today. 25 miles or so and only a few hundred metres on the main road carriageway. There the drivers were accommodating - because they all cycle too (lesson there on including cycling in driving test). Safe. Healthy. *And* reduced congestion. Win-win-win.
Cheers. Munich
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Oh, classy touch this. Just in case you missed the corruption on the first pass- here it is with sirens and lights.
The plan still needs to be passed by a vote of Fifa's 211 member nations. But if approval is granted, Fifa says Thrive Eternal is expected to lead the proposed investor group for FFE.

Thrive is an American venture capital firm founded by Joshua Kushner, the brother of US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared.

Fifa sources have told BBC Sport there has been no discussion over Infantino, or anyone else, becoming chief executive of FFE.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Yes, this is right. It will also need nurses, carers, business managers, customer relationship managers, teachers, public service administrators. In fact, the relational economy is where the big growth *and* volume of work will be. We need to be more comfortable in the skin of a service economy.
Writing in the Times, Burnham said: "In the age of Al, practical and technical skills haven't become less valuable - they've become more valuable than ever. Britain will need brilliant engineers, electricians and cybersecurity experts more than ever before.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
And this from an excellent piece in the FT this am rather sums it up. Responsible media and public discourse does not assign AIs human motivation and characteristics. They are computer systems. Which is different on every level. And what is going on is the AI cos abdicating responsibility.
more than they are built. One of Anthropic's defining pieces of research appears in a paper entitled "On the Biology of a Large Language Model”. This is highly misleading: LLMs do not have any biology at all, because they are not alive. But in reading Anthropic's paper one is invited quietly to forget this; the word "metaphor" does not appear in the article.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Oh, look, ChatGPT did it. No it did not. OpenAI did it. ChatGPT was *designed* to do it. "Without permission". Yet: "Two new versions of ChatGPT, designed to be master hackers, broke out of a supposedly secure test environment." Right, *designed* to be a hacker so it hacked! Duh.
Commentators and analysts took to their podcasts and social media accounts to guess which cyber crime group or nation state hacker might be behind it.

Then on Wednesday, nearly a week after Hugging Face raised the alarm, the true culprit was unmasked.

It was ChatGPT.

The Scooby-Doo-style reveal was made even more bizarre - and worrying - because OpenAl said its bot did the whole thing on its own, without permission.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Whoever designed this Times front page has a dark and wicked sense of ironic humour. Hyper-sensitivity to predictable technical challenges of energy transition. Meanwhile, Europe burns.
Times front-page combining net zero scare story with photo of Europe burning
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
How's reindustrialisation going in the US? The country pursuing a mercantilist policy of tariff and trade coercion in order to reindustrialise. Well, badly. Jobs declining in almost every manufacturing sub-sector.
Jobs decline in US manufacturing
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
We're just at the end of your last ten year plan. Not gonna lie, the results ain't that great.
DAVID FROST

I too have a 10-year plan – but unlike Burnham's, mine works
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Thank goodness for trees and hedgerows. This is Worcestershire! Could be a Spanish landscape without the tree/hedge preservation.
Worcestershire at height of Summer
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Here is one micro AI UK start/scale up business with 10 employees. Spending $100k a month on US hyperscalers. The greater the adoption, the greater the offshoring of production (and jobs). Imagine this scaled across UK high value services, HE, manufacturing and digital sector...
Despite the efficiency gains, he worries that so much value is getting shipped to the US giants rather than being generated at home.

His company spends more than $100,000 a month on AI services, he adds.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
If young people turn to AI rather than social media, the outcomes are unlikely to be great. We have to think about the psychological conditions of modern society. Not knee jerk policy: everything in the round.
It might be that, given Al's sycophancy, and with responsible design, it could be palliative. Yet the fear has to be that dependence on AI agents will actually separate young people further from their social lives - it is ultimately a purely individualistic experience in “conversation” with a machine. That doesn't sound at all good in the medium term.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A "public affairs" boss of a manufacturing firm referring dismissively to Miliband's "personal ambitions" re net zero. The ignorance and arrogance is off the scales. It's a global agreement and has been UK law for almost two decades- tightened by the Conservatives. Because it's damn serious.
"I suspect there is relief,” said a public affairs boss at a large British manufacturer who is in the latter camp. “I can't see how it would work" with Miliband at the Treasury because of his "personal ambitions in terms of net zero", the boss said.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Perhaps it's about social media enabled bullying at school? That *seems* right. And yet, incidence of bullying hardly seems to have shifted. Perhaps it's something lower level? Who knows- we haven't really looked at it systematically. We just have narratives.
Incidence of bullying
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
And then there's.... school. Something is going badly wrong at school. I don't necessarily buy into the popular narratives here- eg exam stress. And school is where peer issues also reside. Sleep affects it too (and social media may be driving deprivation). But a more serious look is needed.
Collapsing satisfaction with school
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
And whilst we're on big factors. Covid just seems to be largely ignored in the policy debate. But clearly it's a massive factor (not necessarily the disease itself but the wider societal/institutional impacts).
COVID impacts on mental health, learning disabilities, autism
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
By the way, prevalence of physical conditions (stomach ache, backache, dizziness etc) have also increased over the time period. Could they be linked somehow? Eg we know that childhood obesity has been creeping up (and this is also linked to deprivation)
Increase in physical issues
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
By the way, prevalence of physical conditions (stomach ache, backache, dizziness etc) have also increased over the time period. Could they be linked somehow? Eg we know that childhood obesity has been creeping up (and this is also linked to deprivation)
Increase in physical issues
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Secondly, it shows that all psychological conditions have been rising for quarter of a century. There is an acceleration in the smartphone era- especially girls. It's clear though that there are other factors driving increases given the time series. And it's flatter if we exclude post Covid.
Global rise in psychological complaints with English data plotted too.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A few weeks ago an interim independent review into mental health was published. It hasn't yet concluded on causes of what is undoubtedly a mental health crisis. But it had interesting data. Firstly, this on self harm. Which shows we have been seeing a consistent and concerning increase since 2000.
Self harm data
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Diane Abbott is absolutely right isn't she? Part of protecting democracy is protecting elected representatives. Social media is right at the heart of the corrosion of public life. And platforms that harm should be confronted.
*Diane* Abbott,  the mother of the house, said at one point she was getting more abuse and threats than all other female MPs. She said the situation had got a lot worse since she first became an MP. And she blamed social media companies. She went on:

We need to find a way to make some of these online companies more accountable for the threats and the violence that they allow on their platforms.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Glancing through the IS again two years later: 1. Successful development strategies have usually shielded developing domestic sectors while gaining access to others' markets. We are doing the opposite (esp in AI). 2. This feels completely inadequate:
vi) Nurture the UK's Digital and Technologies economy responsible for building our sovereign capability in the most strategically important areas, £670 million to drive the development and adoption of quantum computers in the UK, £500 million delivered through the Sovereign Al Unit, and a new programme of Al Growth Zones.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Totally genuine
Overton window
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Yes, I mean he doesn't even mention it in his list of achievements! He does say this though....
د

say. And I freely admit that one of the failings of my Government has been our struggle to boil the good work we have done into a simple and accessible vision for Britain's future.

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
On AI.
Technologies such as generative AI enter the societal bloodstream. They become part of the semantic structure of society – how we understand ourselves and others – which changes our culture and democracy, influences our national security, and shapes our ability to provide genuinely public services. We ignored this when it came to social media – foolishly and we are now paying the price in terms of corroded culture, mental health, and democracy.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
And yet, there you are Terry, there you are. Posting.
terry christian @terrychrist.... 24m

:

Replying to @lisanandy and @MFIJake

Yep full if crayon eating knobheads and bots

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66

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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Admiring the heroic levels of cognitive dissonance of the 3200 who liked this - whilst merrily remaining on the "abuse and misinformation" platform...
Lisa Nandy MP

@lisanandy

Follow

I've decided to leave this platform and my Department will too.

A platform originally designed for free speech and expression now favours abuse and misinformation over meaningful debate.

It isn't healthy for our democracy or our communities and I don't want to support it.

4:56 PM

02 Jul 26

1.1M Views

359 Reposts

2,378 Quotes

3,292 Likes
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The biggest issue is not planning. Yet again. Quite remarkable that housing delivery is trailing the May, Johnson and on current delivery Sunak Governments. The private sector can't deliver what's needed. The state has to act at much greater scale.
As a result, the government is currently tracking below both the May and Johnson governments for total new homes delivered, and is below the run rate of the Sunak government, let alone what would be needed for 300,000 a year. It appears slogans and red caps aren't enough to counteract inflation and interest rates.
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
This would be a cracking appointment. James Purnell as Chief of Staff. Quite apart from his political experience, he's actually run things.
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Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

Follow

EXCLUSIVE:

Andy Burnham is expected to appoint a former Blairite cabinet minister who is one of his oldest political allies as his chief of staff as he seeks to overhaul No 10

James Purnell, who served as pensions minister, culture secretary, and work and pensions secretary in the New Labour governments of Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, is the frontrunner for the role, The Times has been told
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
We will need somewhere between an *additional* 600k to 1m care workers over the next decade due to retirement, increased demand and people leaving the sector. Are we sure targeting overseas care workers with new citizenship restrictions is sensible? And as for Home Office cost-benefit analysis...


For Adult Social Care, each year, we estimate an average of 40,400 workers needing to be replaced within priority occupations in the sector. Over the 10-year period of 2026 to 2035, the total estimated replacement demand is 404,000 workers. This increases the total demand for workers. When combining this with total additional employment demand to 2035 (281,300), the total demand for workers in Adult Social Care is 685,000.

However, this estimate of replacement demand for Adult Social Care could be a substantial underestimate. DHSC estimate (using Skills for Care data) that the number of staff leaving the "care worker" occupation alone in 2024/25 was greater than 100,000.

For Health labour market projections estimate an average of 67 800 workers each year
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Yes, it is. It truly is. BBC firing on all political cylinders again.
Is it mad to imagine that other big names from the past - David Miliband or, even Ed Balls -might abandon New York and the breakfast TV sofa, and fancy a comeback too?

Just as there are compelling reasons for Labour
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
People don't want fascism. They want change. Labour has two years to show what real change looks like. This is it now. Last chance.
Makerfield result
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
London is scarred by Brexit but resilient. Industrial Britain, the manufacturing heartlands, the red wall, have been absolutely poleaxed. You think the politics align with that? Not a jot.
Impact on Brexit services v goods
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
And here is your periodic reminder of the most common occupations in Labour's most marginal seats. (You can see the full analysis in my Substack linked in bio). Who are they speaking to/for?
Most common occupations in Labour marginal seats
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