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Andrew Patrick

@andrewpatrick.bsky.social
143 followers 435 following 28 posts
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
So while we think we are heading toward ~3C today, we could really end up at 4C if we role 6s on the proverbial climate dice. Its more useful to treat climate outcomes as a set of risks – the odds of the world warming by 2C, 3C, or 4C over time – rather than a deterministic outcome.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
These arise from two factors: carbon cycle feedbacks – how the biosphere and ocean's ability to absorb carbon changes as we emit more and the world warms, and climate sensitivity – how the interplay of feedbacks like water vapor, clouds, snow and ice, etc. respond to warming.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
We hear a lot about central outcomes of climate change. For example, under the new "medium" scenario (e.g. current policies continuing), the world warms around 2.9C by 2100. But these numbers mask some massive uncertainties in how the climate actually responds to our emissions.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
The world has made real progress in steering away from some of the darkest climate futures where global emissions doubled (or more) this century. But as David Wallace-Wells and I note in today's NYT, we are not out of the woods yet, and climate uncertainty is not our friend: www.nytimes.com/2026...
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Ember @ember-energy.org · 19/09/2026
Passenger EVs grew from less than 10% of China's new car sales in 2020 to over 50% in 2025 ⚡ The shift is now spreading past cars as electric truck sales MORE THAN DOUBLED in 2024 and again in 2025, reaching 26% of new truck sales. ember-energy.org/lat...
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Canada is on track to warm by 5°C within a generation — but it’s not inevitable. To avoid the worst, Canada must play offence and defence: lowering emissions while adapting to climate change. 👇
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The latest science shows Canada is on track to be 5°C hotter by 2100 if global emissions stay on the current path. Rapid emissions cuts could limit that to ~3.5°C—still unprecedented damage, but a future we can plan for. A 5°C warmer Canada is not.⬇️ ow.ly/zRia50ZNni0
ow.ly
Opinion: We must now prepare for decades of more extreme and damaging weather
A new government report says that Canada can no longer avoid warming weather
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Just did a little search and it looks like the ZEV category here includes the PHEVs. This tool was helpful www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/t...
www150.statcan.gc.ca
New motor vehicle registrations, quarterly, by geographic level
Quarterly data on vehicle registration by fuel type, vehicle type and number of vehicles, Canada, the provinces, census metropolitan areas and census sub-divisions.
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Does hybrid here include plug-in hybrid?
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
NEW: Canada’s emissions are now more than 20 years behind on the country’s 2030 target. Our latest analysis shows the policy choices that have Canada lagging and explains how to get back on track. 👇 440megatonnes.ca/insight/net-zero-c…
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
A landmark scientific assessment shows 🇨🇦 must prepare for a future that is up to 5°C hotter and cut emissions to avoid the worst impacts. Ultimately, the report describes physics, not fate–what happens next depends on us. See our 🧵⬇️ on the findings. Statement: climateinstitute.ca/news/canada-...
climateinstitute.ca
Canada must prepare for a 5°C hotter future and act now to avoid worst impacts: new federal report
Latest scientific assessment shows rapidly cutting global emissions could contain the damage and avoid devastating weather...
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
That will have severe impacts on Canadian communities and the economy. All possible climate futures will mean longer, more intense wildfire seasons, more extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, permafrost thaw and glacier loss. But there’s a big difference between 3.5C and 5C.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
The report shows Canada will be 2.7C warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next 2 decades regardless of emissions. Even in a net zero future, warming in Canada reaches 3.5C. Without GHG cuts, Canada is on track to be 5C hotter, with winters up 10C in much of the North.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 03/09/2026
NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil use | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/P3nHdbA
Line chart showing that China's CO2 emissions dropped in spring 2026 amid the strait of Hormuz crisis.
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Glad you enjoyed it! Victoria's 1st protected lane landed about a year after your last visit. The region has built a lot of AAA lanes/routes since. See here for map - green is already built; blue under contruction; red/black construction starts in 6 mon-1 year umap.openstreetmap.de/en/map/victo...
umap.openstreetmap.de
Victoria region bike and roll map
Includes safe (all ages and abilities or close to AAA standard) bike and rolling routes built or in planning for Victoria-area municipalities. Green are already built; blude are under construction; r...
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
When will China's oil demand peak? Chinese government: Before 2030 Sinopec: By 2027 Reality: it may have happened last year! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
China’s Oil Demand ‘Very Likely’ Peaked Last Year, Sinopec Says
China’s oil demand probably peaked last year, earlier than previous estimates, according to the head of the nation’s top refiner.
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Today’s National Adaptation Strategy update shows little evidence that Canada is meaningfully reducing climate risk. As this summer’s catastrophic wildfires have shown, the country needs to act urgently. Our full statement👇 ow.ly/QNv050ZzyS5
ow.ly
National progress report shows Canada is not prepared for the climate risks ahead
Three years into its National Adaptation Strategy, Ottawa has little evidence it is reducing climate risk and should urgently focus and accelerate work to protect Canadians from fire, heat, floods, and other climate impacts.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Tyler Olsen @tyolsen.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I've been scrounging around for this stat for years and BCWS just.... posted this out there
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Michelle Cyca @michellecyca.com · 12/08/2026
pretty irresponsible headline given how prevalent arson conspiracies and misinfo are & how many people will not click through to learn that there have been 14,856 fires since 2016 & this figure represents 3.6%.
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
corrected post This is our climate change reality. BC is at the sharp end of the climate change spear in terms of fire in Canada. Graph below shows annual area burned in BC 1950-2026. Top 6 years have been since 2017 and BC has experienced more area burned during 2017-2026(red) than 1950-2016(green)
annual area burned in BC 1950-2026. Recent years data from ciffc
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Another active fire day in BC but what scares me is the lightning forecast. Expect lightning in BC for the next 9 days. It is bone dry in parts of BC so if we see the lightning, we could see many new fire starts. ECMWF lightning density maps for Monday and Tuesday.
ECMWF 12-hr lightning density forecasts for BC on Monday Aug 10.ECMWF 12-hr  lightning density forecasts for Tuesday Aug 11
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Oh The Urbanity! @ohtheurbanity.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Here’s total yearly ridership. This is from 2023 --- most of these systems have grown, but the 2025 numbers are still generally similar regarding relative performance I think. nacto.org/wp-content/u...
Station-based bike share ridership, 2023
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Oh The Urbanity! @ohtheurbanity.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Just so everyone knows, Toronto is still the #3 bike share system in the US and Canada — by total trips or trips per bike. It’s not quite Montreal or NYC but BikeShareTO is still very much a success story!
Bike share systems by trips per station-based bike per day, 2023
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Chris Istace 🇨🇦 @stasherbc.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Saw this photo from yesterday of the free bike valet service yesterday in #VictoriaBC for the free Canadian Snowbirds performance over the ocean along Dallas Road. Wow #YYJ you are doing the #cyclinglife great, setting an example for the rest of #NorthAmerica let alone #Canada. #gobbybike #bikesky
Hundreds of cyclists using the bike valet in Victoria BC
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Snowbirds helped push +5,500 bike trips across the Johnson St Bridge yesterday
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
"By 2030, Rhodium expects total carbon emissions to fall by 26% to 29% below the 2005 baseline; by 2040, the range swells from a 27% reduction (essentially flat emissions through the 2030s) to a 41% reduction."
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
International Energy Agency @iea.org · 30/07/2026
Despite a challenging backdrop for the global car market, electric car sales rebounded sharply in Q2 2026. Record quarterly sales in 50 countries have lifted the outlook, with EVs now expected to account for 29% of all cars sold this year 👉 iea.li/4pPLITc
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
It's happening... pretty fast! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Andrew Patrick @andrewpatrick.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
"Only about a fifth of Canada’s burned area over the past four decades was even inside forest regions that have ever been actively managed. You cannot have a fuel-buildup from forest mismanagement in a forest you were never managing."
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Roy Symons // Rolling in the City @roysymons.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
How Far Ahead Are the Dutch? How Far Do We Still Have to Go? Answers within… www.rollinginthecity.ca/blog/how-far... #netherlands #bicycles #cycling #streets
rollinginthecity.ca
How Far Ahead Are the Dutch? How Far Do We Still Have to Go? — Rolling in the City | Streets | Bicycles | Photography
The BC Bicycle Infrastructure Index was part 1 you might say, to see where the BC municipalities are in their journey. Many of them are near the start of that journey, some are further into it, but ho...
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canary Media Inc. @canarymedia.com · 19/06/2026
May was a huge month for solar power. For the first time ever, the U.S. got more power from solar than coal plants across a whole month. www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/…
canarymedia.com
Solar beat coal on the US grid in May — a new milestone
It’s the first time that's happened across an entire month, and it comes despite the Trump administration’s efforts to reinvigorate coal and hamper solar.
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
This chart continues to be one of my fave
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
⚡ NEW REPORT⚡ Clean power can give Canada a competitive edge in the global race for investment in major industrial projects—but only if the country transforms how it plans and builds its electricity systems. ⬇️🧵 climateinstitute.ca/reports/powe...
climateinstitute.ca
Powering industrial growth with clean electricity grids
Power Play points to four areas the federal government can take action on to help Canada gain competitive advantage in the race for ...
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 12/06/2026
The world has warmed by around 1.4C since 1850. It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
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Reposted by Andrew Patrick
Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Great news in Ontario!⚡️ 🔋Battery storage projects won all 640 MW of IESO’s latest capacity contracts, beating out gas at some of the lowest prices in recent procurements. Every project is 50%+ Indigenous-owned. news.ontario.ca/en/release/1...
news.ontario.ca
Ontario Newsroom
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Max Fawcett @maxfawcett.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
This is now two consecutive auctions where battery storage has outcompeted and outclassed gas-fired electricity -- in Ontario, of all places. It might be time for some folks to update their priors on the cost of battery storage.
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The shares of both gas and coal in the global electricity mix have declined in recent years, as renewables have risen. Check out the latest analysis from @ember-energy.org ⬇️
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International Energy Agency @iea.org · 26/05/2026
In 2020, EVs made up just 4% of all car sales globally. Their share rose to 25% in 2025 – and is set to grow close to 30% this year. And by 2035, even without any new policy announcements, EVs could account for about half of global car sales 👉 iea.li/49UkWCh
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John Hanger @jrfhanger.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Good morning with good news: EV truck sales in China doubled in 2025 & were 25% of truck sales! Global sales of EV heavy trucks tripled. EV medium truck sales rose 65%. Europe's EV truck sales rose 40%. EV trucks were 9% of global market. iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/14a32... #energysky
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Canadian Climate Institute @climateinstitute.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Indigenous Peoples from coast to coast to coast are addressing housing & climate issues with innovative solutions. Join us and @indigclnenergy.bsky.social tomorrow at 1pm ET for the Advancing Indigenous Healthy Energy Homes webinar 🏠 to learn how federal policy can support progress. Register below!
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Kathryn Harrison @profkharrison.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
"the MOU slightly improves industrial carbon pricing relative to its current status in Alberta – but goodness, that’s a low bar. The losses offset the gains, because the MOU cements a low level of stringency around industrial carbon pricing across Canada for the foreseeable future.
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Dale Beugin @dalebeugin.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
New from @enveco.bsky.social @rjcsmith.bsky.social and me in the Globe: "The newly announced Alberta-Canada Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) implementation agreement locks in incremental climate progress for Canada. If that sounds like we’re damning it with faint praise, that’s because we are."
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/05/2026
We also cannot rule out higher-warming outcomes. The CMIP7 medium illustrative scenario has a median of 2.8C, but a 5-95% range of 2.1C to 3.7C and a ~2% chance of 4C+ warming once you include climate sensitivity and carbon cycle uncertainties. 8/11
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/05/2026
This tracks with other independent estimates. Climate Action Tracker's "policies & action" projection has fallen from 3.6C in 2015 to 2.6C in 2026, around ~1C of progress. The IEA saw similar pre-Paris baselines around 3.5C and ~2.4-2.9C today. 6/11
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/05/2026
The right counterfactual isn't RCP8.5. It's the full range of baseline scenarios, which averaged ~3.5C of warming by 2100. Today's medium scenario lands closer to 2.8C. That's ~0.7C of avoided warming from policy + technology. Not the full 1.7C difference from RCP8.5, but still huge. 5/11
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/05/2026
Two things can be true: • RCP8.5 was never a realistic "business as usual" scenario • The world has made real progress bending the emissions curve down Glen Peters, Piers Forster, and I explain in a new article: www.theclimatebrink.... 1/11
theclimatebrink.com
On the death of RCP8.5
We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it
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Sara Hastings-Simon 🇨🇦 @shastingssimon.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
ah yes - good point that I missed - not only is delay delay, because of inflation it actually means even lower effective prices. bsky.app/profile/jaso...
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 15/05/2026
TLDR: this agreement does not maintain a path to net zero by 2050
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Adam Radwanski @aradwanski.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
“Oil Sands Alliance is committed to advancing the Pathways carbon capture and storage project provided the necessary regulatory and fiscal terms are in place.” As in, if there are no regulations and the governments pay for the whole thing.
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