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Andrew Merrifield

@andrewmerrifield.bsky.social
334 followers 3.7K following 42 posts

Former academic, policy analyst, general government dogs-body in South Africa. Got a degree from the Maxwell School/Syracuse...

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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
with all the noise about white domination in South Africa, it is worth looking at the Palma Ratio of inequality... yes, SA was an unequal society under Apartheid, but inequality really sky-rocketed when the ANC took over...
Income inequality for SA and others...
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Lizzy Tish @lizzy-tish.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
Not a single international cargo ship at the Port of Seattle. The port is dead. The last ship from China will dock at a West coast port on the 29th, and the last Chinese ship will dock on the East coast around May 10th. After that, there will be no more shipments arriving from China. We’re screwed.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
FUNDSTRAT tonight: “.. in the last few days, we have had many conversations with macro fund managers. .. A few have quietly wondered if the President might be insane.”
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
I flew in on Xmas day 1984, struggled to get into London (the airline charted a bus) checked into my accommodation only to be told I hadn't booked a meal 24 hours ahead of time, wandered around all day not finding one restaurant open, and had my first meal on the 26th... I remember that Xmas well...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
not an American so I have ben trying to avoid US (Trump/Musk) news as much as possible, but I see the Venezuelans are being booted out - what happened to the Haitians that were supposed to be eating everyone's pets? Did they give up or were they also given the bum's rush? Asking for a friend...
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Roberta Millstein 🌎🌱🐩🏊🏼‍♀🎶🥾 @cepaea.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Anyone who is surprised by this wasn't paying attention. This was always an anti-woman candidate and administration. I hope the women who voted for Trump wake up soon.
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
until the main instruments of patronage (Black Economic Empowerment and Preferential Procurement) are removed...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
The key reason has already been identified by the above quoted authors "these investment projects were increasingly coopted for patronage spending and self-enrichment". There is very little in the budget or any other ANC pronouncement that things will be different this time...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
of exposure to the infrastructure market in South Africa leads me to conclude (based on my many studies of actual delivery) that this promised R1 Trillion will be wasted yet again. However my main point is to wonder why this ANC govt persists with these grand promises. The key reason has already
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
"What happened to the cycle? Reflection on a perennial negative output gap', Theo Janse van Rensburg, David Fowkes and Erik Visser, SARB Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes July 2019. I am sure there are many economists better qualified to comment on ICOR and its future impact, but almost 40 years
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
"It is becoming clearer that these investment projects were increasingly coopted for patronage spending and self-enrichment, a misallocation of capital that has curtailed the efficiency of investment and therefore the country’s longer-term growth potential".
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
SA economy was under extreme duress from economic sanctions and the rise of anti-Apartheid resistance, but the rise in the past decade raises serious concerns about the productivity of future infrastructure investment and to quote one paper I used to write this thread,
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
of capital (amount of Rand/Dollars) to produce one unit of output (normally GDP). SA's ICOR has varied between about 4 and 6 for the past 100 years but in the past decade it has risen to 14. In other words, R14 (or ($14) would add R1 (or$1) to the GDP output. There have been other periods when the
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
in past budgets (almost since 1994), this focus on infrastructure is yet another waste of public resources which will primarily enrich ANC cadres at the expense of the ordinary public. The key to this argument is ICOR or incremental capital output ratio. A simple definition of ICOR is the increment
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
some of the seminal public sector policy documents in 1990s and 2000s. Our minister's speech noted: 'infrastructure is a key pillar of our growth strategy...Public infrastructure spending over the next three years will amount to more than R1 trillion.' I intend to argue that like many promises
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
1/n I don't post threads often as there is little interest outside of South Africa in South Africa, but in light of our recent Budget presentation, I feel inclined to comment. I'm not a public finance specialist, but I have previously considered as knowledgeable about infrastructure and published
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
we cn only hope the 'wheels come off' and someone speaks up...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
thanks for the info - it will be great is someone digs into this story - it would be good to know when those margin calls may trigger...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
again it would be useful if someone who understands financial matters can explain the impact of this decline on the Tesla stock price on the loan conditions that Musk undertook to finance his adventures with Twitter...surely he must be taking some strain?
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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
AOC is probably the most famous Dem in the country and has had a target on her back since Day 1 and she's out there every day bringing the fire. Fuck off if you don't actually want to defend the country and just want to suck up my tax dollars in a cushy job.
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
an interesting article about a much needed response to the Nazi... but it doesn't consider the implications of a decline in the value of Tesla stock on the loans Musk took out to finance some of his businesses including Twitter. Anyone with financial nous know about that?
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Jason Linkins @dceiver.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
gently suggest that everyone who wrote or edited this at the @nytimes.com be gently guided into a career that's not journalism because this is uhhh, real bad
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Notthedarkweb @notthedarkweb.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
wow
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
America expended a lot of blood and treasure to become a world leader and in less than a month Trump and his minions (incl almost the entire GOP) have given that away... China and others (Russia) must be delighted...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
"The privilege to misgovern may be all but universally enjoyed in practice. But it takes some nerve today to espouse it consistently in public" John Dunn, The Cunning of Unreason, more than 20 years old but very relevant today...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
maybe I am reading your maps wrong but South Africa (and Southern Africa) have some of the highest rates of gender based violence in the world with 35.5% of women 18 years or older reporting gender violence and or sexual assault (link: hsrc.ac.za/media-pack-f...).
hsrc.ac.za
Media pack: First South African National Gender-Based Violence Study, 2022 - HSRC
Human Sciences Research Council released and handed over the First South African National Gender-Based Violence Study, 2022 to Minister Sindisiwe Chikunga on 18 November. This pivotal study provides insights into GBV prevalence, risk factors, and impacts across South Africa, forming a foundation for targeted solutions. As the custodian of women, youth, and disability matters, the
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 31/01/2025
I just want to say for the record that when the history books are written centuries from now, I believe the election of Donald Trump in a free and fair election in 2024 will go down as one of the most senseless and self-destructive own goals in human history
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
excuse my ignorance (not an American) but the Teamsters chose to sit out (and not endorse any candidate) the most consequential US election in history... should anyone care what happens to them now? They dug their own grave...
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Prof. Elaine Chalus @profelainechalus.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
As a result, there will be more unwanted pregnancies, more women & girls who have suffered rape will be forced to bear children, & more lives ruined. But Trump doesn't care. #Shame www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
reuters.com
Trump uses executive power to reinstate anti-abortion pacts
President Donald Trump on Friday used his executive authority to restore U.S. participation in two international anti-abortion pacts, including one that cuts off U.S. family planning funds for foreign organizations if they provide or promote abortions.
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diego@estupido.fyi @estupido.fyi · 04/01/2025
planners should be like catholic priests but instead of celibacy they're just not allowed to have a car
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DAPPER DON DHARSHI @dapperdondharshi.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Elder explaining life
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Debbie Northway 🇦🇺🦘🐨 @debbienorthway.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
America
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Ada Palmer @adapalmer.bsky.social · 17/03/2024
In Medellín, a city of 2.5 million people in Colombia, the Green Corridors urban restoration project has planted 880,000 trees and 2.5 million plants, reducing pollution and bringing temperatures down by 2 degrees C. #ShareGoodNewsToo reasonstobecheerful.world/green-corrid...
reasonstobecheerful.world
How a Colombian City Cooled Dramatically in Just Three Years
With “green corridors” that mimic the natural forest, the Colombian city is driving down temperatures -- and could become five degrees cooler over the next few decades.
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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Denver gave people experiencing homelessness $1k/month. A year later, nearly half had housing. They also had fewer ER visits, nights spent in a hospital, and jail stays. The report estimates that this reduction in public service use SAVED the city $589k. www.businessinsider.com/denver-basic...
businessinsider.com
Denver gave people experiencing homelessness $1,000 a month. A year later, nearly half of participants said they had housing.
Participants in Denver's basic-income program reported having more-secure housing, though results were similar in the trial and control groups.
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David Frum @davidfrum.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
It's disheartening that in an age where knowledge has never been more accessible - the United States is about to be governed by an administration so primitive and ignorant as to believe that tariffs are good and that vaccines are bad.
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
fuck the NYT - they got Trump re-elected - I subscribe so I can read articles like this but their log in just hangs - it makes me think I should join the exodus and stop supporting these Trump enablers...
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Mel Andrews @bayesianboy.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
posting a picture to present some 'zen' on the timeline...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
do you think it will matter - Ramaposer has shown little inclination to follow any advice if it is not from the ANC. The big difference between him and Mbeki, who, despite his blindness on many issues, at least could engage intellectually with such advisors. Remember R'poser on the Eskom war-room!
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
more analysis by academics and policy researchers. What SA presents at the moment is a case-study, or perhaps a natural experiment, as to how seemingly progressive policies can end up failing. The easy answers are not there for grabs and understanding will require some deep level mining for answers!
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
worthy of much analysis. It is normal to blame Apartheid and colonialism (and neo-colonialism), but are there factor internal to the development of the post-Apartheid polity that can better explain the specific trajectory? Depending on interest, I will try give some explanations, but SA needs much
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
of course, this picture of decline is not always apparent to tourists (and journalists who are often just tourists) and those seeing the ANC govt strut its stuff on the world stage (normally for causes unrelated to SA's and Africa's own needs and challenges). How SA ended up here is of course ...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
similar to many war zones. Inequality in amongst the highest in the world, poverty and hunger is rampant and it is unsafe with around 80 people being murdered and perhaps 120 women or children being raped a day. Govt services, the initial focus of post-Apartheid govt have all but collapsed...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
some who follow SA politics would know that the 2nd decade saw massive upheavals in the ANC and these translated into growing instability and incapacity in the state. The 3rd decade has seen further political upheaval and the acceleration of state incapacity. As a consequence, SA now has conditions
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
anyway, post 1994, many of those who had participated in the pre-1994 policy work ended up working in or for the state either as officials or as consultants. I was both. The 1st 10 years was a period of growth and maturity for most in government but the seeds of our decline were already being sown.
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
There were also outer groups dealing with labour issues, macro-economics and criminal justice etc...
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
initiatives around housing. Initially a lot of post-Apartheid policy work was about dealing with the key social issues, Education, Health, Housing, Transport that had disadvantaged black South Africans due to Apartheid.
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Andrew Merrifield @andrewmerrifield.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
3/n as early as 1990, when the ANC was unbanned, the struggle shifted internally from trying to overthrow the state to learning how to govern it. The ANC's 1992 "Ready to Govern" was a hopeless exaggeration, but we did not know enough to know how far off we were. I participated in several policy...
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