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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

What did change in spaces like the SCS & generally the "first island chain" is not the emergence of particular new technologies. But the rise of a navy that uses new & "older" technologies to project power. The nature of sea control in the Pacific changes because of PLAN. /end

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

In the littoral space on the other hand sea control has arguably never been persistent, because innovations such as mines, submarines, AShM etc always put challengers at an advantage, resulting in intermediate sea control where such assets are a threat for decades.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This dynamic IMO is not driven by any technological change, drones or otherwise, but by power balances. Consider that the US maintained this type of sea control only from the second half of the Pacific War, and then, absent any serious naval challenge, into the present time.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

My principal concern is that "sea control" to a large extent in Western thinking is shaped by long-standing stable power ratios ensuring what the text calls "classic sea control - exerted by a largely unchallenged navy for long durations and over wide areas".

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Interesting piece by the esteemed Sean Andrews on the changing character of sea control. This observation echoes to some extent views how modern offensive ground warfare more heavily emphasises raiding. However, I do question the historical evidence base. www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-like-the...

aspistrategist.org.au

Not like the old days: modern sea control will be episodic and local | The Strategist

A new combination of surveillance, drones and precision strike is eroding the old assumption that navies could generate sea control through superior ships, vessels, aircraft and operational skills alo...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Secondly, does that have to be 06FFM? Range, capability & interoperability appeal. Politics do, too. Price & complexity less so. There are other options for real frigates, but end of the day none of them will be a lot cheaper IMO, especially over the long term, so the problem remains the same. /end

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There are two questions. First, whether NZ needs a frigate? I think they do, based on general requirements and the historical track record shaping procurement decisions. Efforts to get frigates on the cheap (such as FFBNW and OPV sold as FFs) never pan out. You do get what you pay for.

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Reposted by Alex Luck

saturnax1.bsky.social @saturnax1.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

#SubWednesday #Submarines 148 Commando Forward Observation Battery training with a German Navy Type 212A-class Batch II diesel-electric/AIP attack submarine of the coast of Scotland. Source: www.instagram.com/p/DeJ2_criPKp/

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

"Colby has dubbed the effort NATO 3.0." Not sure what happened to NATO 2.0, but presumably this new version includes just telling your allies one thing today and the polar opposite tomorrow. 🙃 www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

politico.com

US and Poland near deal for American base with 10,000 troops

The Polish foreign minister announced the effort Thursday, despite a previous Trump administration threat to pull troops from the country.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Am Ende muss man natuerlich beides machen, ie "schnell = FMS", "nachhaltig = national/Euro". Das kann uebrigens auch Lizensproduktion von US-Systemen sein, haben wir bei CH-53 damals nicht anders gemacht. Bzgl F-35 Preis bin ich unsicher, ob da das Triebwerk inbegriffen war.

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Reposted by Alex Luck

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 24/09/2026

A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to temporarily lift a White House ban on journalists from CNN, MS NOW and Politico. Read more: bloom.bg/3VNV8U7 📷️: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Das ist aber m.E. genau die Krux, wo der Artikel ideologisch auf Geisterfahrt ist. Denn die "geknebelte" Spezifikation resultiert in Vertragsdisziplin und verringertem Risiko, fuer den Steuerzahler, und die Einsatzbereitschaft. Stattdessen wird von Unzuverlaessigkeit wg Trump geschwafelt. 🤷‍♂️

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Stattdessen linkt der Artikel sportlich nen Kommentar von Siemtje Moeller, einer Person, die instrumental mitverantwortlich dafuer war, wie mit nationaler Ruestungslobby die Tankerbeschaffung fuer die Deutsche Marine in Kostenexplosion und jahrelanger Verzoegerung endete.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

C-130J und P-8A, beide ueber FMS-"Knebelvertrag" beschafft, gingen puenktlich und ohne dramatische Mehrkosten in den Bundeswehr-Betrieb. Bei nationalen/Euro-Beschaffungen quasi nie der Fall. Wird in der "Recherche" kurioserweise mit keiner Silbe erwaehnt. www.zdfheute.de/politik/f-35...

zdfheute.de

US-Rüstungsdeals: Teure Knebelverträge für die Bundeswehr

Deutschland kauft Kampfjets in den USA. Die vertraulichen Kaufverträge zeigen: Deutschland liefert sich noch mehr der Trump-Administration aus.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

For the first time in the history of the German Navy a female CO will take command of a frigate. Frigate captain/FKpt/Commander Ute Niklas is now CO of F125 frigate Rheinland-Pfalz (F225), taking over from previous CO Benedikt Eichhorn. Images German Navy/Wikipedia.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Immer mal schoen, in den etablierten deutschen Medien namentlich erwaehnt zu werden, wie hier bei "Focus", auch wenn es prinzipiell die Wiedergabe des @twz.com-Artikels ist. Generell auch erfreulich, dass das Thema PLAN aufgegriffen wird, weil weiterhin unterbeleuchtet. www.focus.de/politik/ausl...

focus.de

Neue Satellitenbilder aus Huludao bestätigen erstmals den Pumpjet-Antrieb eines mutmaßlichen chinesischen Atom-U-Boots des Typs 095

Neue Satellitenaufnahmen aus Huludao zeigen erstmals deutlich den Pumpjet-Antrieb und das X-förmige Heck eines mutmaßlichen chinesischen Atom-U-Boots.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Leistungsdaten sind immer schwer einzuschaetzen. Ich warne davor, Faehigkeiten neuer Designs wie Typ 095 zu unterschaetzen. Der Entwurf ist radikal fortschrittlicher als das, was man von China frueher kannte. Just FYI, die aktive chinesische SSN+SSBN-Flotte liegt inzwischen jenseits von 12 Booten.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"...a wider 2027 defense budget proposal totaling approximately 8.07 trillion Argentine pesos (roughly $5.3 billion) (...) remains outpaced by domestic inflation recorded between budget cycles." The glass remains near empty for Argentinian defence deals. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

navalnews.com

Argentina Eyes New Submarines and Frigates

Argentina plans to acquire three submarines and two frigates under its 2027 budget, aiming to rebuild critical capabilities and secure financing.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The AI czar according to AI.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Wie der Artikel schreibt, ist das eher nachrangig, wenn man in Friedenszeiten von jetzt auf gleich die Produktion hochfaehrt und dann schnell verbraucht. Wenn man aber im Konflikt mit einem Gegner steht, der eben diese benoetigten kommerziellen Komponenten baut & exportiert... 🙃

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Wichtiger Diskussionsbeitrag von @frhoffmann.bsky.social. Hinzuzufuegen waere auch noch, dass die kostenguenstigen Systeme von "Start Ups" erst am Anfang einer Entwicklung stehen, die bisher auch gewisse supply chain-Abhaengigkeiten IMO ungenuegend beruecksichtigt. www.hartpunkt.de/nicht-entwed...

hartpunkt.de

Nicht entweder-oder: warum moderne Deep-Strike-Arsenale verschiedene Flugkörperklassen brauchen

Am 17. August vergab die US-Marine an Raytheon einen Auftrag im Wert von 22,9 Milliarden US-Dollar mit einer Laufzeit von sieben Jahren, um die Produktion der von Schiffen und U-Booten abgefeuerten To...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Just when I put up this thread, @twz.com added a new image in their reporting, which all but confirms this is indeed a Type 095A (ie the longer variant). It also has a new detail on the bow which may well be the actual VLS on this design. TBC. www.twz.com/sea/chinese-...

twz.com

Chinese Next-Generation Submarine Developments Spotted In New Satellite Imagery

A Chinese submarine now taking shape at Bohai Shipyard has a number of significant features and offers new insights into China's undersea ambitions.

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Reposted by Alex Luck

Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Bisher keine Stadt gesehen, wo #Solaranlagen so verbreitet sind wie in #Damaskus; dort wurden sie in den Kriegsjahren wichtiger Baustein zur energetischen Resilienz.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

...necessarily the case. The new image does not clear things up. Proportions remain difficult to measure just going off that one picture. This is where open source imagery "analysis" quickly reaches its limits. Therefore, as often, we need to await further info before jumping to conclusions. /end

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We've seen both versions side by side in previous satellite imagery at Bohai, courtesy of @type36512.bsky.social/Karotasu on X. The Type 095A, produced by Bohai & Jiangnan in Shanghai, is overall longer than the Type 095, leading some to suggest it is an SSGN. However, I dont think thats...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Also interesting to see is we still have no clue about the forward dive planes, beyond the fact that they must be bow-mounted (instead of being on the sail, like on preceding PRC-developed submarines). Finally, we dont know for sure which variant we are looking at here, ie Type 095 or Type 095A.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Importantly, we still dont know whether & where the design has a VLS (despite the graphic in the NN article above). There is a large rectangular space that _may_ be a VLS, though IMO more likely its related to propulsion (ie the reactor compartment). Other details were known, ie X-tail and pumpjet.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Generally speaking there are no new revelations about the configuration of what observers dub Type 095/09V and its likely related variant, the Type 095A. Recall, Bohai launched the sole Type 095 in February this year (a story I happened to "break", for a change). www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

navalnews.com

Chinese Type 09V Next Generation SSN Appears At Bohai

Chinese shipbuilder Bohai this week moved the first Type 09V new generation nuclear powered attack submarine into the launch bay at Huludao.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We have a new image, courtesy of Janes, of a recently produced next generation SSN in drydock at Bohai (paywalled link to article below). A few remarks on what the image tells us, and more notably, what it does not. www.janes.com/defence-inte...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

"...people will remain essential where warfare demands contextual judgment, intuition, interaction with civilians and accountability for life-and-death decisions." Which arguably affects larger parts of warfare than often appreciated in drone-discourse. www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-only-rob...

aspistrategist.org.au

Not only robots: warfare will still need humans | The Strategist

Future warfare won’t be entirely robotic. Yes, people will gradually disappear from battlefield environments where speed, endurance, distance, precision or physical danger overwhelmingly favour use of...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Most of my writing for NN & other outlets aims for subject matters you can revisit a few times over many years. It's great to see other contributors adding this sort of content, as the global writer base of NN can provide a significant spectrum of expertise on the same platform.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

A little bit of promotion for the new "feature" segment at @navalnews.com. I'm very enthusiastic about this addition, as it provides a more dedicated space for long(er) form analysis that doesnt chase day to day events, but rather looks at the big picture. www.navalnews.com/category/fea...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I revisit this theme now & then because of a trend in article pitches advocating "affordable mass" constituted of FAC (or now their USV equivalents) instead of "expensive, prestigious" larger combatants. Which is IMO a fallacy lacking a sound real world- operational basis.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Another illustration of the move away from smaller FAC to larger missile corvettes filling the same basic requirement. Of course a case can be made that the Veer-class NGMV replaces was technically already a (small)( corvette (Pr 1241/Tarantul-variant). www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

navalnews.com

Cochin Shipyard Lays Keel for Indian Navy's First NGMV - Naval News

Cochin Shipyard has laid the keel for the Indian Navy's first Next Generation Missile Vessel (NGMV), marking a major milestone for the stealth corvette program.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Thank you, appreciate the nice feedback!

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Ich mag ja eher Sachen, die schwimmen. Aber ist halt trotzdem wichtig, so ein bissel. 🙃

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

China's bemerkenswerter Aufstieg zu einem der innovativsten Entwickler fuer Kampfflugzeuge der naechsten Generation ist in Europa & Deutschland weiterhin unterbeleuchtet. Fuer @hartpunkt.bsky.social habe ich mal den aktuellen Stand aufgearbeitet. www.hartpunkt.de/mit-vollem-s...

hartpunkt.de

Mit vollem Schub in die Zukunft – chinesische Kampfflugzeuge der nächsten Generation

Weltweit gewinnen die Bemühungen von Luftstreitkräften zur Entwicklung von Kampfflugzeugen der nächsten Generation an Dynamik.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

I think there are other naval services elsewhere that could employ this size of USV far better. Greece comes to mind, or other states with lots of cluttered islands & adequate (ie distributed) maritime infrastructure. The issue for Australia remains the size of the patrol area and scarcity of ports.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Which leads me to what I think is a misperception of the requirement. A useful patrol design needs to tick boxes of reasonably high mobility, reasonable surveillance capability and ease of operations. Virtually all USV designs in existence today fall short in these regards. /end

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

A more appealing solution could be USVs transportable by motherships, expanding those vessel's patrol range/area. However, embarking adequate designs will impose certain design penalties, calling for large, bespoke carrier designs (ie not every OPV will be able to deploy them).

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

...infrastructure to deploy them. If "conventional maritime access is difficult", you will very likely struggle to move them close enough to an adequate drop off point with a C-17, too. Furthermore, the RAAF C-17 pool is a precious asset already burdened with lots of tasks.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

A range of 1,500 NM in naval terms is tiny. It is approximately the same as previous generation missile FAC for littoral waters such as the Baltic, Med or cluttered chokepoints such as various SEA straits. While the mobility aspect seems tempting, you still need land-based...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Unsurprisingly, given my track record, I disagree with the view that vessels like Sea Archer are useful for Australian naval requirements. There is a reason industry procudes these designs on their own coin. They are cheap & rather low performance. www.aspistrategist.org.au/industry-is-...

aspistrategist.org.au

Industry is building the capability and industrial base northern Australia needs | The Strategist

Last week in Darwin, I saw an example of what Australia needs more of: industry investing in sovereign capability before Defence has written the requirement or issued a tender. I watched Leidos’s Aust...

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The situation for AORs of course is only part of a larger picture for renewed construction, including further designs. Notably submarine support vessels of the Type 927 (ONI Dakai class, 830 in pic) and one other design (ONI Dafeng, not sure on real designation, 840 in pic).

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

After going through a a hiatus for several years, something I commented on before, China now appears to be determined expanding its replenishment capacity in line with modern requirements. The Type 903 fleet grew by at least 50%. Large AOR (previously Type 901) have now doubled.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It was near inevitable to happen, but the second new very large AOR for PLAN is in an advanced stage of assembly now at COMEC Guangzhou. The first hull (3rd pic) was recently launched and is presently fitting out. All images via @type36512.bsky.social/KAROTASU), X.

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Alex Luck @alxluck.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The P-1 is routinely cited in general interest debates as MPA candidate for Western navies. While undoubtedly an intriguing design, a dubious logistics & modernisation footprint caused by a small sole operator fleet of a design not certified abroad was always a major concern.

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