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alastaim.bsky.social

@alastaim.bsky.social
114 followers 336 following 18 posts
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/10/2026
The more you know ... The 4-year running average for the global temperature anomaly is forecast to break the Paris Limit of 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on November 17, 2026. We'll be covering the moment. Stay tuned!
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 11/10/2026
My latest on Substack. "The first truth about climate metaphors is that no metaphor exists that fully encapsulates how fucked everything is. Yes, the doomsday glacier is a ticking time bomb and the oceans are boiling, but what about coral tipping, what about ESAS and Siberian methane?"
climatecasino.substack.com
All the Canaries are Dead!
Long live the meta-metaphorical canary!
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026
The long-term rate of CO2 growth is currently at a record 24.35 ppm per decade. Net-zero by 2050? 2070? Ain't gonna' happen. Well, it might. But for another reason.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026
The more you know. Yesterday marked the 130th consecutive day of record global sea-surface temperatures, with yesterday's temperature 0.21°C warmer than the previous record for October 9th, set way back in 2023. The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on total 2027 fuckery.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026
Tides in Santa Barbara are running 1-2 feet above predicted levels. Why? Thermal expansion due to record ocean temperatures, the Kelvin waves from the current El Nino and tropical storm Rachel. Interesting times are getting even more interesting. tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb...
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rockseas @rorr66.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
And so it goes … www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...
theguardian.com
New Zealand greenhouse gas levels hit record highs threatening catastrophic glacier melts
Government report finds the country could be hit with more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as damaging storms and cyclones
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/10/2026
Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine.
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Abilu Tangwa. @abilutangwa.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Climatological risk is the weather itself turning more extreme. A warmer atmosphere holds more energy, so heatwaves last longer, droughts bite harder, and fire weather spreads farther. Some recent heatwaves were virtually impossible without human-caused warming. This is not a future scenario. I
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026
our 'moment of doom' for Oct. 4, 2026 ~ Fountain alert! "But experts say the severity and duration of this year’s fall heatwave is extreme, and likely to become more common in the future as the climate crisis nudges global temperatures higher." www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Southern California swelters as late-season heatwave smothers region
Temperatures expected to hover around 100F in downtown LA and even hotter inland, raising concerns about wildfires
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026
The final results are in and 2026 came in 2nd place behind 2023 for the total number of days with global surface temperature above 16.0°C. 2023: 128 days 2026: 126 days Don't fret. There's always next year ...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 30/09/2026
Breaking News! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly for Sept. 29th came in at 3.18°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks yet another record all-time high and the 123rd consecutive record daily high at 1.1°C above the previous daily record set in 1997.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "The latest science confirms that we have breached, that we've transgressed seven of the nine planetary boundaries that regulate the health of the entire planet." www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnpE...
youtube.com
Official Planetary Health Check 2026 with Johan Rockström
YouTube video by Planetary Boundaries Science
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Greenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 14/09/2026
www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...
thepost.co.nz
How Big Farm lobbyists helped rewrite new RMA laws
Documents show Federated Farmers, DairyNZ, Beef + Lamb NZ, Fonterra and Horticulture NZ using a private meeting with ministers to push specific changes to the Natural Environment Bill.
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Greenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 17/09/2026
A letter signed by seven former conservation ministers of different political parties is highlighting "the strong, cross-party support for conservation over successive governments, which these changes to the Conservation Act would overturn". #NZpol #MarchForNature newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/17/e...
newsroom.co.nz
Ex-ministers slam Govt on controversial conservation bill
Seven former conservation ministers from Labour, National and the Greens demand changes to a bill they say would upset decades of protection
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Greenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 19/09/2026
www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3610...
stuff.co.nz
Thousands march in protest of controversial conservation bill
Thousands of people took to the streets of the Auckland CBD on Saturday, in protest of the Conservation Amendment Bill. The Government says the bill would support more effective administration of cons...
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Greenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 19/09/2026
Updated numbers: 35k marched for nature! More than 35 thousand people joined today’s March for Nature, to demand that the Government scrap the Conservation Amendment Bill. www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/pre... #nzpol #marchfornature
greenpeace.org
Updated numbers: 35k marched for nature - Greenpeace Aotearoa
More than 35 thousand people joined today’s March for Nature, to demand that the Government scrap the Conservation Amendment Bill.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 19/09/2026
The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 1.97°C.
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Climate News @climatenews.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Houthis just shot down a Saudi F-15 over Yemen. Brand new from Preston Stewart:
youtu.be
Houthis Just Shot Down a Saudi F-15 Over Yemen
YouTube video by Preston Stewart
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 16, 2026 ~ Both Sides Now. "Passing 2°C of warming in the second half of the 2030s is therefore very likely, with significant implications for climate policy." drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do...
drtomharris.substack.com
Dimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimates
Disentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026
'Absorbed Solar Radiation' is the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth that is not reflected back into space as shortwave radiation. Reduced cloud cover, less-bright clouds, melting polar ice and changing vegitation are all contributing to the recent spike.
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Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand @greens.org.nz · 02/09/2026
New Zealand can no longer rely on fossil fuels. Today’s announcement that Methanex is closing proves that. From 2027, NZ’s largest gas producer will be closing its plant and selling off its gas contracts.
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RB @rbisrb.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Same As It Ever Was...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/09/2026
My most recent Substack post: "We are not just frogs in a pot being brought to a slow boil. We are frogs in a pot with the flame being turned higher every single day." climatecasino.substack.com/p/125-millio...
climatecasino.substack.com
1.25 Million Hiroshimas per Day
And why we are more fucked than ever.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/09/2026
Breaking News! Code: Yikes! The latest Nino 3.4 plume was just released by ECMWF, showing the peak of the current El Nino coming in at about 4.0°C above the 1991-2020 average in December. The previous record monthly peak was 2.8°C in November, 2015.
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Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A civilian geography professor was fired from West Point for pushing back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change.
stripes.com
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Lots and lots and LOTS of Americans voted for DJT and the GOP…
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/08/2026
Breaking News! Code: y-Axis alert! The latest global preliminary sea-surface temperature for August 23rd blew away the previous record set just yesterday. I had to raise the y-axis to accomodate the new record. Will I have to extend the y-axis again tomorrow? Stay tuned.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/08/2026
Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! El Nino continues to spike towards an all-time record high anomaly, with the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature more than 2.6°C above the 1991-2020 baseline as of August 4th, and more than 1.0C° above the previous August 4th record set in 1997.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/07/2026
Global sea-surface temperatures just reached their 50th consecutive record hot day and are expected to continue to rise for another month. This is so far beyond 'bonkers' (technical climate science term) that the Climate 8-ball has decided to start drinking early today.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/07/2026
Here's the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly update, through July 23rd, the 55th consecutive day at a new record daily high, and 0.74°C higher than any previous July 23rd on record. The Climate Casino is taking the Over on 3.6°C (Hausfather's line) and the Under on 4.3°C (CFSv2's line).
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 25/07/2026
Your 'doom quote' for today: "the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90 per cent. The number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less." www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2009/01/27/l...
sciencemediacentre.co.nz
Lovelock: One billion better than nine billion - Science Media Centre
It is a wonderfully philosophical and pragmatic 90 year-old James Lovelock who is interviewed in New Scientist this week. The […]
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
2026 Halley public lecture www.physics.ox.ac.uk/events/2026-...
physics.ox.ac.uk
2026 Halley public lecture
Guest speaker is cosmologist Professor Matias Zaldarriaga (IAS & Princeton University)
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Sign the petition: Keep Conservation Land in Public Ownership action.greens.org.nz/protect_cons...
action.greens.org.nz
Keep Conservation Land in Public Ownership
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Hugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
People who think that "less growth" means "reduction" are the problem, not the solution. When there were only 50 million (1000 BCE) or 500 million (1650) humans on Earth - nobody claimed that humanity would go extinct unless we grow to 8.3 billion quickly. Humanity can only go extinct by growing.
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Hugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Humans are genuine misanthropists. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Humanity faces ‘collective suicide’ over climate crisis, warns UN chief
António Guterres tells governments ‘half of humanity is in danger zone’, as countries battle extreme heat
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/05/2026
Your 'doom quote' for today: "The last time the earth was four degrees warmer, there was no ice at either pole and sea level was 260 feet higher. There were palm trees in the Arctic. Better not to think what the means for life at the equator." www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-uninha...
thriftbooks.com
The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After... book by David Wallace-Wells
Buy a cheap copy of The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After... book by David Wallace-Wells. #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The Uninhabitable Earth hits you like a comet, with an overflow of insanely lyri...
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Abilu Tangwa. @abilutangwa.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Global Deforestation Reality. We still lose 10.9 million hectares of forest every year (2015–2025). That’s an area the size of Portugal annually. Since 1990, nearly 489 million hectares have been lost — mostly in the tropics.
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Jada Jones @jadajones57.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
I’m no longer surprised by the degree of humanity’s stupidity and its intent on self-destruction…
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 01/05/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for May 1, 2026 ~ Another one bites the dust. "Environmental groups became even more alarmed when Reiche announced she would be halting construction of wind and solar farms ... In their place she has proposed erecting new gas plants." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Germany’s climate U-turn is the worst possible response to the oil shock
Prices at the pump have leapt since the start of the conflict – but clinging to fossil fuels will only prolong the pain, says Berlin-based journalist Tania Roettger
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Civilisation’s active suicide continues…
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/03/2026
Breaking News! Code UFB! Global sea surface temperatures continue breaking daily records, with Mar. 23 having a preliminary SST of 21.141°C, ahead of the previous daily record of 21.118°C set in 2024. This graph shows how fast SSTs are rising compared to pre-2023 temperatures.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/03/2026
Do you have shifting baseline syndrome? Yesterday's global sea-surface temperature was 5.17 standard deviations above the 1982-2011 average (first 30 years of data). The odds of this happening by chance are about 8,500,000-to-1 against (without climate change).
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
The global food system is systemically fragile in the same way that the global financial system was before the 2008 crash. If it goes it down, we’re looking, as complex societies, at a potential termination event. This week's column. Please read it. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
We’re letting big corporations gamble with our lives. Act now, or the food could run out | George Monbiot
The fragility of the global food system fills me with dread – and the war with Iran has exposed just how close to collapse it is, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
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The Physiological Society @physoc.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Tomorrow, we will explore how the UK can strengthen climate preparedness & resilience: 📆 17:30 - 21:30 GMT, 25 Feb 📍 The Royal Society & online Find out more about the #ClimateChange event discussing the latest scientific advice to the government ⬇️
buff.ly
Enhancing the UK’s preparedness and resilience to climate change
The Physiological Society is proud to be sponsoring the climate event hosted by The Foundation for Science and Technology. Register now.
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alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Ironically, in New Zealand, we have had increased heavy rain incidents causing a huge amount of damage…but the agricultural sector- which has been heavily affected- are the last to accept any link with a warming climate.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/02/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 14, 2026 ~ For the rain it raineth every day. "Warmer air can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1°C of warming. This means that when it rains, on average it rains harder. Bigger, heavier downpours become more common." theconversation.com/britains-rel...
theconversation.com
Britain’s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as expected
After an exceptionally wet start to 2026, two climate scientists explain what’s going on.
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Barack Obama @barackobama.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Today, the Trump administration repealed the endangerment finding: the ruling that served as the basis for limits on tailpipe emissions and power plant rules. Without it, we’ll be less safe, less healthy and less able to fight climate change—all so the fossil fuel industry can make even more money.
pbs.org
WATCH: Trump, EPA's Zeldin announce end of scientific basis for U.S. action on climate change
The Trump administration on Thursday revoked a scientific finding that long has been the central basis for U.S. action to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change, the most aggressiv...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/02/2026
As of Feb. 10, 2026, the planet is tied for 2nd hottest on record, at 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline. The Climate 8-ball says, "El Nino? We don't need no stinkin' El Nino!"
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Mark Histed @markhisted.org · 13/02/2026
In terms of what cures are being lost: - Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis - herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis - shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease
"Moderna's CEO announced the company will no longer invest in new Phase 3 vaccine trials for infectious diseases: 'You cannot make a return on investment if you don't have access to the U.S. market. Vaccines for Epstein-Barr virus, herpes, and shingles have been shelved.”
9:12 AM
Feb 12, 2026
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