Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/10/2026The more you know ... The 4-year running average for the global temperature anomaly is forecast to break the Paris Limit of 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline on November 17, 2026. We'll be covering the moment. Stay tuned! 20359189
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 11/10/2026My latest on Substack. "The first truth about climate metaphors is that no metaphor exists that fully encapsulates how fucked everything is. Yes, the doomsday glacier is a ticking time bomb and the oceans are boiling, but what about coral tipping, what about ESAS and Siberian methane?"climatecasino.substack.comAll the Canaries are Dead!Long live the meta-metaphorical canary! 1620681
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026The long-term rate of CO2 growth is currently at a record 24.35 ppm per decade. Net-zero by 2050? 2070? Ain't gonna' happen. Well, it might. But for another reason. 20291117
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026The more you know. Yesterday marked the 130th consecutive day of record global sea-surface temperatures, with yesterday's temperature 0.21°C warmer than the previous record for October 9th, set way back in 2023. The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on total 2027 fuckery. 14435210
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10/10/2026Tides in Santa Barbara are running 1-2 feet above predicted levels. Why? Thermal expansion due to record ocean temperatures, the Kelvin waves from the current El Nino and tropical storm Rachel. Interesting times are getting even more interesting. tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb... 15338153
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialrockseas @rorr66.bsky.social · 07/10/2026And so it goes … www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...theguardian.comNew Zealand greenhouse gas levels hit record highs threatening catastrophic glacier meltsGovernment report finds the country could be hit with more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as damaging storms and cyclones 193
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 06/10/2026Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine. 53845497
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialAbilu Tangwa. @abilutangwa.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Climatological risk is the weather itself turning more extreme. A warmer atmosphere holds more energy, so heatwaves last longer, droughts bite harder, and fire weather spreads farther. Some recent heatwaves were virtually impossible without human-caused warming. This is not a future scenario. I 14120
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026our 'moment of doom' for Oct. 4, 2026 ~ Fountain alert! "But experts say the severity and duration of this year’s fall heatwave is extreme, and likely to become more common in the future as the climate crisis nudges global temperatures higher." www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...theguardian.comSouthern California swelters as late-season heatwave smothers regionTemperatures expected to hover around 100F in downtown LA and even hotter inland, raising concerns about wildfires 79431
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 04/10/2026The final results are in and 2026 came in 2nd place behind 2023 for the total number of days with global surface temperature above 16.0°C. 2023: 128 days 2026: 126 days Don't fret. There's always next year ... 29555235
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 30/09/2026Breaking News! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly for Sept. 29th came in at 3.18°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. This marks yet another record all-time high and the 123rd consecutive record daily high at 1.1°C above the previous daily record set in 1997. 38792441
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "The latest science confirms that we have breached, that we've transgressed seven of the nine planetary boundaries that regulate the health of the entire planet." www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnpE...youtube.comOfficial Planetary Health Check 2026 with Johan RockströmYouTube video by Planetary Boundaries Science 9297149
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGreenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 14/09/2026www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...thepost.co.nzHow Big Farm lobbyists helped rewrite new RMA lawsDocuments show Federated Farmers, DairyNZ, Beef + Lamb NZ, Fonterra and Horticulture NZ using a private meeting with ministers to push specific changes to the Natural Environment Bill. 032
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGreenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 17/09/2026A letter signed by seven former conservation ministers of different political parties is highlighting "the strong, cross-party support for conservation over successive governments, which these changes to the Conservation Act would overturn". #NZpol #MarchForNature newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/17/e...newsroom.co.nzEx-ministers slam Govt on controversial conservation billSeven former conservation ministers from Labour, National and the Greens demand changes to a bill they say would upset decades of protection 02613
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGreenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 19/09/2026www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3610...stuff.co.nzThousands march in protest of controversial conservation billThousands of people took to the streets of the Auckland CBD on Saturday, in protest of the Conservation Amendment Bill. The Government says the bill would support more effective administration of cons... 0116
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGreenpeace Aotearoa @greenpeace.org.nz · 19/09/2026Updated numbers: 35k marched for nature! More than 35 thousand people joined today’s March for Nature, to demand that the Government scrap the Conservation Amendment Bill. www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/pre... #nzpol #marchfornaturegreenpeace.orgUpdated numbers: 35k marched for nature - Greenpeace AotearoaMore than 35 thousand people joined today’s March for Nature, to demand that the Government scrap the Conservation Amendment Bill. 114152
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 19/09/2026The Climate Casino is taking the OVER on 1.97°C. 1016054
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialClimate News @climatenews.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Houthis just shot down a Saudi F-15 over Yemen. Brand new from Preston Stewart:youtu.beHouthis Just Shot Down a Saudi F-15 Over YemenYouTube video by Preston Stewart 1188
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 16, 2026 ~ Both Sides Now. "Passing 2°C of warming in the second half of the 2030s is therefore very likely, with significant implications for climate policy." drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do...drtomharris.substack.comDimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimatesDisentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate. 19301140
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026'Absorbed Solar Radiation' is the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth that is not reflected back into space as shortwave radiation. Reduced cloud cover, less-bright clouds, melting polar ice and changing vegitation are all contributing to the recent spike. 913250
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGreen Party of Aotearoa New Zealand @greens.org.nz · 02/09/2026New Zealand can no longer rely on fossil fuels. Today’s announcement that Methanex is closing proves that. From 2027, NZ’s largest gas producer will be closing its plant and selling off its gas contracts. 14814
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialRB @rbisrb.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Same As It Ever Was... 329136314225
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/09/2026My most recent Substack post: "We are not just frogs in a pot being brought to a slow boil. We are frogs in a pot with the flame being turned higher every single day." climatecasino.substack.com/p/125-millio...climatecasino.substack.com1.25 Million Hiroshimas per DayAnd why we are more fucked than ever. 1015144
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/09/2026Breaking News! Code: Yikes! The latest Nino 3.4 plume was just released by ECMWF, showing the peak of the current El Nino coming in at about 4.0°C above the 1991-2020 average in December. The previous record monthly peak was 2.8°C in November, 2015. 915464
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialStars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 26/08/2026A civilian geography professor was fired from West Point for pushing back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change.stripes.comWest Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit saysAdam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says. 48977413701
alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Lots and lots and LOTS of Americans voted for DJT and the GOP… 001
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/08/2026Breaking News! Code: y-Axis alert! The latest global preliminary sea-surface temperature for August 23rd blew away the previous record set just yesterday. I had to raise the y-axis to accomodate the new record. Will I have to extend the y-axis again tomorrow? Stay tuned. 33444184
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 05/08/2026Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! El Nino continues to spike towards an all-time record high anomaly, with the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature more than 2.6°C above the 1991-2020 baseline as of August 4th, and more than 1.0C° above the previous August 4th record set in 1997. 34646321
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/07/2026Global sea-surface temperatures just reached their 50th consecutive record hot day and are expected to continue to rise for another month. This is so far beyond 'bonkers' (technical climate science term) that the Climate 8-ball has decided to start drinking early today. 581052536
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/07/2026Here's the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly update, through July 23rd, the 55th consecutive day at a new record daily high, and 0.74°C higher than any previous July 23rd on record. The Climate Casino is taking the Over on 3.6°C (Hausfather's line) and the Under on 4.3°C (CFSv2's line). 1020172
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 25/07/2026Your 'doom quote' for today: "the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90 per cent. The number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less." www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2009/01/27/l...sciencemediacentre.co.nzLovelock: One billion better than nine billion - Science Media CentreIt is a wonderfully philosophical and pragmatic 90 year-old James Lovelock who is interviewed in New Scientist this week. The […] 1511736
alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 21/05/20262026 Halley public lecture www.physics.ox.ac.uk/events/2026-...physics.ox.ac.uk2026 Halley public lectureGuest speaker is cosmologist Professor Matias Zaldarriaga (IAS & Princeton University) 000
alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Sign the petition: Keep Conservation Land in Public Ownership action.greens.org.nz/protect_cons...action.greens.org.nzKeep Conservation Land in Public Ownership 010
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialHugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 10/05/2026People who think that "less growth" means "reduction" are the problem, not the solution. When there were only 50 million (1000 BCE) or 500 million (1650) humans on Earth - nobody claimed that humanity would go extinct unless we grow to 8.3 billion quickly. Humanity can only go extinct by growing. 032
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialHugo @nonviolence.bsky.social · 10/05/2026Humans are genuine misanthropists. www.theguardian.com/environment/...theguardian.comHumanity faces ‘collective suicide’ over climate crisis, warns UN chiefAntónio Guterres tells governments ‘half of humanity is in danger zone’, as countries battle extreme heat 1114
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 09/05/2026Your 'doom quote' for today: "The last time the earth was four degrees warmer, there was no ice at either pole and sea level was 260 feet higher. There were palm trees in the Arctic. Better not to think what the means for life at the equator." www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-uninha...thriftbooks.comThe Uninhabitable Earth: Life After... book by David Wallace-WellsBuy a cheap copy of The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After... book by David Wallace-Wells. #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The Uninhabitable Earth hits you like a comet, with an overflow of insanely lyri... 69728
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialAbilu Tangwa. @abilutangwa.bsky.social · 09/05/2026Global Deforestation Reality. We still lose 10.9 million hectares of forest every year (2015–2025). That’s an area the size of Portugal annually. Since 1990, nearly 489 million hectares have been lost — mostly in the tropics. 33629
alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 01/05/2026I’m no longer surprised by the degree of humanity’s stupidity and its intent on self-destruction… 010
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 01/05/2026Your 'moment of doom' for May 1, 2026 ~ Another one bites the dust. "Environmental groups became even more alarmed when Reiche announced she would be halting construction of wind and solar farms ... In their place she has proposed erecting new gas plants." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...theguardian.comGermany’s climate U-turn is the worst possible response to the oil shockPrices at the pump have leapt since the start of the conflict – but clinging to fossil fuels will only prolong the pain, says Berlin-based journalist Tania Roettger 99128
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/03/2026Breaking News! Code UFB! Global sea surface temperatures continue breaking daily records, with Mar. 23 having a preliminary SST of 21.141°C, ahead of the previous daily record of 21.118°C set in 2024. This graph shows how fast SSTs are rising compared to pre-2023 temperatures. 771231668
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 24/03/2026Do you have shifting baseline syndrome? Yesterday's global sea-surface temperature was 5.17 standard deviations above the 1982-2011 average (first 30 years of data). The odds of this happening by chance are about 8,500,000-to-1 against (without climate change). 410737
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialGeorge Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 25/03/2026The global food system is systemically fragile in the same way that the global financial system was before the 2008 crash. If it goes it down, we’re looking, as complex societies, at a potential termination event. This week's column. Please read it. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...theguardian.comWe’re letting big corporations gamble with our lives. Act now, or the food could run out | George MonbiotThe fragility of the global food system fills me with dread – and the war with Iran has exposed just how close to collapse it is, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot 471239629
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialThe Physiological Society @physoc.bsky.social · 24/02/2026Tomorrow, we will explore how the UK can strengthen climate preparedness & resilience: 📆 17:30 - 21:30 GMT, 25 Feb 📍 The Royal Society & online Find out more about the #ClimateChange event discussing the latest scientific advice to the government ⬇️buff.lyEnhancing the UK’s preparedness and resilience to climate changeThe Physiological Society is proud to be sponsoring the climate event hosted by The Foundation for Science and Technology. Register now. 032
alastaim.bsky.social @alastaim.bsky.social · 16/02/2026Ironically, in New Zealand, we have had increased heavy rain incidents causing a huge amount of damage…but the agricultural sector- which has been heavily affected- are the last to accept any link with a warming climate. 000
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/02/2026Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 14, 2026 ~ For the rain it raineth every day. "Warmer air can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1°C of warming. This means that when it rains, on average it rains harder. Bigger, heavier downpours become more common." theconversation.com/britains-rel...theconversation.comBritain’s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as expectedAfter an exceptionally wet start to 2026, two climate scientists explain what’s going on. 109236
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialBarack Obama @barackobama.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Today, the Trump administration repealed the endangerment finding: the ruling that served as the basis for limits on tailpipe emissions and power plant rules. Without it, we’ll be less safe, less healthy and less able to fight climate change—all so the fossil fuel industry can make even more money.pbs.orgWATCH: Trump, EPA's Zeldin announce end of scientific basis for U.S. action on climate changeThe Trump administration on Thursday revoked a scientific finding that long has been the central basis for U.S. action to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and fight climate change, the most aggressiv... 20992837811976
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialProf. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 12/02/2026As of Feb. 10, 2026, the planet is tied for 2nd hottest on record, at 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline. The Climate 8-ball says, "El Nino? We don't need no stinkin' El Nino!" 410544
Reposted by @alastaim.bsky.socialMark Histed @markhisted.org · 13/02/2026In terms of what cures are being lost: - Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis - herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis - shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease 435124426138