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Andrew Small

@ajwsmall.bsky.social
2.2K followers 624 following 32 posts

Asia Director at ECFR. Formerly: European Commission, German Marshall Fund. Posting on China / US / Europe Books, articles: andrewsmall.org

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Reposted by Andrew Small
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 17/06/2026
✍️ New policy brief Europe's leaders understand the challenge China poses to its industry, economy and security. But the EU still responds one tariff, one sector and one restriction at a time. Instead, Europe should turn its system into its power, argues @ajwsmall.bsky.social bit.ly/3SdKSmt
ecfr.eu
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms – European Council on Foreign Relations
The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
With the European Council set to discuss China tomorrow, I have an @ecfr.eu paper out on how to put Europe’s approach on a new footing, leveraging the European system as a strategic asset: ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms – European Council on Foreign Relations
The EU can exploit its system to say no to China—now, and long into the future
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 24/02/2026
Merz’s trip to China is less a bilateral tour than a signal-setting moment: his words and stance will influence whether Europe pivots to a more assertive China strategy or lets Beijing lock in a costly status quo, writes @ajwsmall.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social Full text: bit.ly/4kVtOvQ
bit.ly
Merz in Beijing: A chance to flip China’s “stability” narrative – European Council on Foreign Relations
Problem China will try to use German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s trip to Beijing on February 24 to bolster a narrative of "stability" amid turbulence unleashed
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Byford Tsang @byfordt.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement: We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later. vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
EU-China summit is underway in Beijing. In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day. First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...
news.cctv.cn
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit. Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...
gmfus.org
Just Showing Up
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Reposted by Andrew Small
German Marshall Fund @gmfus.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's ‪@noahbarkin.bsky.social‬, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social‬, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, ‪@ec.europa.eu‬ 🎟️ Register now:
gmfus.org
EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit
Heightened economic and geopolitical tensions mark the state of EU-China trade relations as a summit between their leaders approaches. How are the two parties navigating the global restructuring…
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe. China's exports to the US down 34.52% China's exports to the EU up 12% China's exports to Germany up 21.5% China's exports to France up 24.1% China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Both had hoped to do this with the US…
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Reposted by Andrew Small
Joris Teer @joristeer.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target! My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP. @euiss.bsky.social www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
iss.europa.eu
European Ministers of Defence - Save Europe, invest in mining!
Critical materials are the backbone of modern defence. For Europe's rearmament to succeed, the EU defence ministers must break Beijing's chokehold on these essential resources.
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech: - China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe - Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies. - Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry. - Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
China's trade data for April came out this morning. Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath. EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging 🧵
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
China won't want a significant escalation (few do) but I suspect won’t mind an opportunity to test Chinese against Western weapons systems on India's side. I doubt Beijing will see the Indian strikes as excessively escalatory. A kind of re-run of 2019 would IMO be fine from China’s perspective 9/9
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Further back in time, there was some coordination and complementarity between Chinese and US approaches (see Kargil, Twin Peaks, even Mumbai). But that hasn’t been the case since Uri - now China’s expectation is that US will provide forms of support to India, and it will do likewise for Pakistan
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
China will certainly tilt in Pakistan’s direction though - I expect providing intelligence support and diplomatic support (as we’ve already seen at the UN). This isn’t just about China-Pak relations, but demonstration effect to others that they “look after their friends” 7/9
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
China won’t want to be seen to be too embroiled in Pak response (beyond the unavoidable fact that they will be using Chinese weapons): it's trying to stabilize ties with India now (as with many others) to consolidate China's position to face the US so will tread more delicately than a year or so ago
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
That doesn’t change the fundamental role that Pakistan plays for China as counterbalance / second front pressure on India. And Beijing has never minded a bit of “re-hyphenation” of India with Pakistan- same will hold now at a moment characterized by huge international economic opportunity for India
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
China-Pak ties are far worse than a decade ago. Beijing’s disappointment with CPEC, concerns about failure to protect Chinese nationals, broader unhappiness with Pak internal security landscape, economic & political situation, put relations on a lower ebb (though they don’t dramatize that in public)
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
CPEC did add a new factor: in the early years, as investments surged, China put extra stress on on Pak maintaining stability with India to ensure their economic interests weren’t harmed. But CPEC has stalled and the importance of the economic relationship has dipped again 3/9
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
But: the Chinese kit is much better, and the balance of the weapons systems that Pakistan uses is now far more China-centric (also a byproduct of developments in US-Pak & US-India ties). Old version was low-end plus nukes / delivery systems; new version includes advanced platforms 2/9
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities TikTok admitted hosting European data in China www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...
barrons.com
TikTok Fined 530 Mn Euros In EU Over China Data Transfer
Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting on behalf of the EU, fined TikTok a massive 530 million euros ($600 million) Friday for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from acce...
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs "The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"
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Melissa Chan @melissakchan.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15/04/2025
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d…
ft.com
Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU
Top negotiators met in Washington on Monday to discuss how to remove so-called reciprocal tariffs
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas: - The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods - Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum - Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...
ft.com
Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US or Chinese communications tech
FCC chair Brendan Carr urges ‘western allies’ to pick Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet company
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Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu · 08/04/2025
Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang. We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues. Read-out ↓ europa.eu/!FtFk49
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Katja Bego @katjabego.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard. nos.nl/artikel/2560...
nos.nl
DNB maakt zich zorgen over Amerikaanse invloed op pinbetalingen
Pinbetalingen kunnen gebruikt worden als drukmiddel omdat ze via Amerikaanse bedrijven lopen. "Onwenselijk", noemt DNB dit risico.
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Europe risks "being less able to decide our own future and increasingly pushed around by large economic, technological and military blocs seeking to gain advantage over us". Think this will be the underlying concern informing EU China policy in the new landscape. "Rapprochement" is not an option...
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China Digital Times @chinadigitaltimes.net · 19/03/2025
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?” "I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."
chinadigitaltimes.net
Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?”
Following China’s unannounced naval exercises off the coast of Australia late last month, there has been a noticeable increase in Chinese social media content promoting the invasion (or “nabbing/seizi...
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Helpful initial assessment of some of the early moves from China to take advantage of the USAID vacuum
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Great scoop from the FT: EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies. This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV
on.ft.com
EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies
Investigation comes as Viktor Orbán has attracted large Chinese investments to his country
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Xi Jinping, “angry” about the Li Ka-shing port deal, “had originally planned to use the Panama port issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Trump administration”, Li “acting against Beijing’s interests”: www.wsj.com/world/china/...
wsj.com
Exclusive | China’s Xi Is Angered by Panama Port Deal That Trump Touted as a Win
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is angry about a Hong Kong company’s plan to sell Panama Canal ports to a U.S.-led group, in part because the company didn’t seek Beijing’s approval in advance.
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Beijing’s line to Europe is - you have a Trump problem now, so should be more conciliatory to us; will aim to see what they get for nothing and try to exploit the situation, not make any gestures
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
(NBC News) - Some U.S. allies are considering scaling back the intelligence they share with Washington in response to the Trump administration’s conciliatory approach to Russia, four sources with direct knowledge of the discussions told NBC News. @nbcnews.com
nbcnews.com
As Trump pivots to Russia, allies weigh sharing less intel with U.S.
Members of the so-called Five Eyes spy alliance, as well as Israeli and Saudi officials, fear the identities of foreign assets could inadvertently be shared with Moscow.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Good overview from Germany’s SPD finance minister Jörg Kukies of the sorts of sums unlocked by Germany’s fiscal Zeitenwende if implemented:
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc. "We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament." "This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
A report commissioned by the German defense ministry says Beijing could purposefully delay wind projects, harvest sensitive data and remotely shut down turbines if given access to wind farms. www.politico.eu/article/chin...
politico.eu
China could blackmail Germany via wind turbines, report warns
A government-backed analysis seen by POLITICO argues Beijing could remotely shut down wind farms unless Germany bans its suppliers.
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Nahal Toosi @nahaltoosi.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
NEW: I gained some insight into the Trump/DOGE plans for the State Department. They’ve even asked the Pentagon to rank embassies. www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
politico.com
Here’s what to expect from Trump’s State Department
Plans call for fewer embassies, cuts to programs to build goodwill abroad and more focus on immediate U.S. interests.
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Great thread from Finbarr on Chinese efforts to woo Europe amid transatlantic train-wreck; but bottom line at the end: "overcapacity doesn't go away because Trump is in the White House" and China's backing to Russia is no less of a problem for European security either (even more of one, if anything)
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Full text of President von der Leyen's speech in India, push to complete FTA; supply chains; security and defense partnership / defense industrial cooperation; connectivity; "not a time to place limits on our cooperation", and lots of US / China / Russia subtext... ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
Speech by President von der Leyen: ‘The Consequential Partnership: Reimagining and realigning EU and India ties for today's world'
Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure to be back here in India for such a landmark occasion for the EU-India partnership. Returning here, now for the third time as President of the Commission,
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Nina Jankowicz @ninajankowicz.com · 26/02/2025
“95% of NED’s funding is directly appropriated by Congress & is not considered foreign assistance. This funding therefore was not subject to the executive order freezing foreign assistance…However, despite being exempt, access to these funds has been inexplicably cut off” www.ned.org/statement-on...
ned.org
Statement on NED’s Funding Disruption and Program Suspensions - NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY
NED is unable to access its Congressionally appropriated funds, which sustain nearly all of its grantmaking and operations.
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Trump’s administration sketches out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs on China, and resumes talks with Dutch, Japanese on ASML / Tokyo Electron: curbshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/trump-administration-seeks-more-restrictions-on-china-tech-weighs-nvidia-curbs
bloomberg.com
Trump Team Seeks to Toughen Biden’s Chip Controls Over China
Donald Trump’s administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry, an early indication the new...
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Andrew Small @ajwsmall.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Useful list of the kind of pretend concessions Moscow could offer to Washington on China to give advocates of closer US-Russia ties political cover. Also worth noting that "undermining European competitiveness" is seen as a positive sell to the Trump administration too
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