iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Going live at the top of the hour with @ajelenbogen.bsky.social to watch the Japan/Korea RC! www.twitch.tv/ajlvi

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Tomorrow night! Paper magic! From Japan! No props this time, but I am always curious how a new set will come out of the gates. How many new FRA cards will be 5-2 or above? None? 1-2? Which ones? Register your guesses!

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Three days from now, @ajelenbogen.bsky.social will join me at twitch.tv/ajlvi to commentate the Japan/Korea regional championship. Make plans to hang out! - Day 1 stream starts 10am Japan = 1am UTC = 9pm Eastern Friday - Day 2 stream starts 8:45am Japan = 11:45pm UTC = 7:45pm Eastern Saturday

mtgjp announcement of the streaming schedule for this weekend's Regional Championship. Day 1 starts at 10am local time in Japan (= 9pm Friday night Eastern); Day 2 starts at 8:45am local time in Japan (= 7:45pm Saturday night Eastern).

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Happy Friday! www.mtgeloproject.net is updated with Baltimore, Hangzhou, and the MOCS Showcase. Enjoy the prerelease this weekend, then hang out with me and @ajelenbogen.bsky.social for the Japan/Korea RC next weekend! Details early next week.

mtgeloproject.net

MTG Elo Project - MTG Elo Project

An archive of results of the past 25+ years of Magic tournaments, plus player ratings, stats, and data dives.

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Little changes that keep my job "fun", cycle 13 edition: - For some reason all the magic.gg standings started using <td> delimiters rather than <span> - DQs no longer are guaranteed to be taken out of the standings, so I need to manually check them to ensure alignment between magic.gg and Melee

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Just came across a nice little trivia question: has anyone ever faced all eight players who eventually made top 8 in the Swiss? As far as I know, it's happened exactly once in Magic's history: Cedric Phillips played the entire top 8 at the SCG Invitational in Atlanta in 2012.

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Finally for today, I figured out how to tabulate each player's highest ever *ranking*. If you've ever finished an event at 1700 or higher, this will now display in the "summary" tab of your player card.

Second, the histogram/percentile widget on the stats index now actually works and doesn't use dummy data from 2024. ^_^; (The exciting thing here is that now I know how to make *new* stats pages, so there's more to come.)

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MTG Elo Project - MTG Elo Project - Elo leaders

There's three things we can show off today, but more is in the works. First, there's a leaderboard for players with zero pro matches. We get asked for this from time to time. mtgeloproject.net/leaders/amat...

mtgeloproject.net

Highest-rated players, measured either by current or peak rating.

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MTG Elo Project - MTG Elo Project - Blog - 2026 September 15

We're back! www.mtgeloproject.net is updated! - New events: SS Brisbane and SS Houston, and their LTQs - New features!? See the most recent blog post for more details mtgeloproject.net/blog/63/ or keep reading for the highlights 🧵

mtgeloproject.net

Blog post from Tue Sep 15 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

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Part of today's update involves taking the site down for a little bit. We're aware no pages load. Back soon!

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I think today is going to be the day O_O

That's what I've got for now! If there are other things you want me to look at, feel free to make requests.

Everyone else with 4 PT quals from RCs: ANZ @brennancrawford.bsky.social BR Guilherme Medeiros CA Patrick Wu, Liam Kane, @edgarmtg.bsky.social CN Muhan Yu EU Andre Santos JP Kenta Masukado, Yuya Hosokawa, Masataka Hori SEA Justin Chin, Kelvin Chew SA Matias Leveratto TW Samuel Chang

USA players with 4 PT quals: @nalkpas.bsky.social (off 7 RCs!) Corey Burkhart (9 RCs) cftsoc (11) @pg8.bsky.social (11) @makememesnotwar.bsky.social (13) @toothymtg.bsky.social (13) Gabriel Nicholas (13) Dylan Nollen (14) Michael DiBenedetto (14) Kevin Thanakit (16) @arbitraryarmor.bsky.social (16)

The only person with five PT quals is William Araujo, with his five top 8s in Brazil. 25 other players have four PT quals. By region, it's USA 11, JP 3, CAN 3, BR 2, SEA 2, TW 1, EU 1, SA 1, CN 1, ANZ 1, MX 0.

The last stat I've got for you today is PT qualifications. This is based on the stated number of quals from the event (no passdowns). Recent RC final standings list the passdowns, but the first few did not, and I don't have the patience to figure out who was already Q'd.

The six players with 2 RC wins: Pedrio Perrini [BR, cy6 cy8] Noah Ma [JP, ch8 ch11] Guillermo Sulimovich [SA, ch4 cy9] Muhan Yu [CN, cy5 cy11] Jianwei Liang [CN, cy1 cy3] Samuel Chang [TW, cy9 cy12]

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Then there's the question of victories. There are six players who have two trophies on their shelf. (Maybe I should look at "worlds invites" but I admit I don't even remember which regions are top 2 for worlds vs winner only.)

Most RC top 8s by region: TW 6 Sek-Un Kho BR 5 William Araujo SEA 5 Kelvin Chew SA 5 Matias Leveratto CN 5 Muhan Yu MX 5 Javier Castellan JP 4 Kenta Masukado CA 4 Patrick Wu, @edgarmtg.bsky.social EU 3 Andre Santos AU 3 four tied USA 2 seven tied

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Top 8s have a similar "counting stat" problem, since in some regions top 8s get you to the PT where you can play yourself out of future RCs. In other regions, you could top 8 without making the PT, leading to more RC appearances.

On the other hand, pure attendance is kind of interesting in its own right. 103 players have attended at least one RC in each cycle, too many to list. By region: USA 21 CN 16 CA 15 ANZ 10 TW 10 JP 9 BR+SA 8 (combined as of cy10) EU 7 SEA 5 MX 2

RC win% leaders, min 5 RCs 78.6% (44-12) Guillermo Sulimovich [SA] 76.2% (32-10) Emmanuel Ramirez [MX] 75.0% (63-21) Daniel Weiser [USA] 74.6% (50-17) William Bossaneli Araujo [BR] 74.6% (50-17) Edgar Emmanuel Rangel Paez [MX] 74.1% (43-15) Albert Budisanjaya [SEA] 73.9% (34-12) Rei Sakano [JP]

Winning percentage is a natural next place to look, but there's an awkward balance here because if you do well at RCs, you may get on the PT train and then stop attending RCs. So let's set the cutoff at 5 events, rather than 9 or 12.

RC match wins leaderboard: 132 @arbitraryarmor.bsky.social 130 Robert Seder 127 Ryan Mullins 114 @edgarmtg.bsky.social 113 Kevin Thanakit, Michael DiBenedetto 111 Ryan Hayes 110 Julius Fan, Slater Claudel, @sambogue.bsky.social, Matt Xu 109 Liam Kane, Joshua Willis 108 Zachary Aymie

There are several axes on which we can look at this. Pure wins will be biased in favor of US/Canada as they've had cycles with two events. All 21 of the players with 100+ wins are USA or Canada. (Compare: there have only been 122 rounds played in Taiwan total, counting top 8s!)

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

We're four years into the current OP system. Before the next round of Regional Championships start, let's try to answer the question: who has the most impressive resumes at RCs?

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Wow, today is the 10-year anniversary of the Elo project. Thank you all for all of your support over the past decade! I'm taking next week off (9/7—9/14) and hope to get some much-overdue work done on the site. I won't overpromise, but I hope *something* cool comes of it. =p

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Going live briefly at www.twitch.tv/ajlvi as an internet test (first stream from new house!), planning to play some Threes!, maybe some Balatro or Celeste depending on how things go.

twitch.tv

ajlvi - Twitch

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Flavor fail alert: The Black Arrow doesn't just win you the game against Form of the Dragon.

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Finished my first pass at player resumes for the players on the Hall of Fame ballot. Open to doing more if people have other numbers they're interested in; feedback welcome. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

2026 Hall of Fame resumes

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Getting the HoF ballot correct has been a fun little challenge. - 2009-2012 MOCS was cut to top 2, but the top 4 earned a top finish. - Figuring out "top 4" in double-elim Arena brackets is a mess. - Oh, I don't have any record anywhere of the 2HG PT.

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Plenty of people played one event, won it, and are done for now. Paul Green went from lost finals --> won next event undefeated. Guilherme seems to have done the opposite, oddly enough.

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Someone asked on the other site for a list of everyone who has won a Limited Championship Qualifier. I believe this list is complete as of today (26.07.31).

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

The Elo project is updated tonight with PTMSH + all five Amsterdam PTQs+LTQs + Brussels LTQ + a 100k event from Australia + 10 of the 19 MOCS Showcases. As always, more soon! Devoting most of my efforts to HOF stats over the next few days.

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Never going to miss an opportunity to show off the Savage Punch that @ajolipa.bsky.social painted for my cube.

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Three times now I thought I was ready for a site refresh and then realized there was another event to add (in this case, the Brussels LTQ). Hoping to get this curated today so I can refresh the site tonight. Then back to work on HoF stats.

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Ah damn. As far as I can tell, the most recent 11 events only have results on Discord somewhere. Was hoping you might be able to invite me so that I could grab them, or you might know someone who could.

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

@rhythmik.bsky.social Hello! Any chance we could talk re: recent MOCS results? DMs are open here / discord: ajlvi would also work.

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

- Sixteen players have appeared in all twelve PTs. - Eleven of these players have appeared at all three Worlds too. - Five of these players are 12/12 on PT day 2s. - Only two (Javier Dominguez and Eli Kassis) are 15/15 making day 2 when counting worlds. Full data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

We refreshed the Elo Project tonight; the next refresh will happen after MC Amsterdam. Shoutout to @pg8.bsky.social for going 15-1 over two LTQs to ascend to #1!

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

We bought a townhouse and moved in today! (Yes, if we were just a couple weeks faster, we would have avoided the flood.) My desk did not survive the move, so I won't be setting up my desktop for a couple days. Another Elo hiatus ;_;

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

One box that got wet in the flood held all my NES and N64 games. I'm going to have to clean and test all of them to see whether they still work. Fun stream idea? 🤔

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

Refresh complete! The site should be up to date including all RCs + LTQs from the previous cycle, as well as SS Chiba and Arena Championship 12. Let me know about corrections!

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

I should be able to get the Elo Project refreshed tomorrow evening. Thanks for being patient!

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

This may be where I have to admit that this panel never was fully hooked up and has values that are like a year out of date. =p When we fix this to use live data I'll make sure the column headings get sorted out too. Thanks! ^_^

ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

WLW WWL LWL to miss day two today. For better or worse I could see myself run hot in my wins and then made game-losingly bad decisions in my losses. So it felt like things lined up for me and I just threw =/

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ajlvi @ajlvi.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

Yep, opp was playing Excruciator and had literal zero targets. For both mana efficiency and High Noon reasons, the otherwise-wasted mana plus rhe tempo hit meant I believe it was better to get it out of my hand to improve future Riddlers.