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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

7 Senate Races Where Your Donations Can Make the Biggest Impact: secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...

secure.actblue.com

Chip in!

Show your support with a contribution.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

26 in ‘26: House Races Where Your Donations Can Make the Biggest Impact: secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...

secure.actblue.com

Chip in!

Show your support with a contribution.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I’m not gonna spam you all with pleas for fundraising (we all get enough of that) but I’ll re-up these links every so often in case they got lost in the shuffle.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Thank you to the 44 people who have donated a combined $15K+ to majority-making Dem House & Senate campaigns over the last few days! Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent. ⬇️

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Ok here’s a link where you can split your donations between the 7 Democratic Senate candidates who will determine the majority: Mary Peltola (AK) Josh Turek (IA) Troy Jackson (ME) Abdul El-Sayed (MI) Roy Cooper (NC) Sherrod Brown (OH) James Talarico (TX) secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...

secure.actblue.com

Chip in!

Show your support with a contribution.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

I did a similar exercise in 2024 and we raised over $118K from 648 contributions (netted out to just shy of $5K per campaign). My goal is to collectively raise $250K this cycle (just shy of $10K per House campaign on this list). Idk I think we can do it.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

It's always important to show your work. Below is the spreadsheet with all of the information that I used to inform my decision making for these 26 Dem House campaigns, with lots of pretty (overwhelming?) conditional formatting, because why not. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

docs.google.com

26 House Democrats To Donate To In '26

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

And I've turned off the setting that automatically shares your email and phone number with the recipient campaigns. It'll ask you if you want to share your contact info (don't do it!) so you don't get hit with all those annoying emails and texts.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Even if you can just give $26 — $1 per campaign — it helps en route to critical mass. Whether or not you are able to donate, please share with others. If you don't want to donate to all of the campaigns, or want to donate to some campaigns more than others, you can customize that very easily.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

While Democrats are favored to flip the House in November, it is by no means a done deal. In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact. secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31). Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026. Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Platner has outperformed Mills in general election matchups against Collins in the last five publicly released polls: Emerson: 🔵 Platner +7 🔵 Mills +3 OnMessage (R): 🔵 Platner +2 🟡 Tie Quantus (R): 🔵 Platner +7 🔴 Collins +2 Pan Atlantic: 🔵 Platner +4 🟡 Tie UNH: 🔵 Platner +11 🔵 Mills +1

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

In general election matchups vs. Collins, Platner outperforms Mills among 13 of 17 subgroups, the exceptions being: 4-Year College Grads — Exact tie Women — Mills does 0.3 points better than Platner Democrats — Mills does 1 point better Age 70+ — Mills does 2 points better

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

The last three non-partisan and independent polls of the Democratic primary: Emerson: 🔵 Platner +27 (55-38) Pan Atlantic Research: 🔵 Platner +7 (46-39) UNH: 🔵 Platner +38 (64-26) — Average: 🔵 Platner +24 Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Dem Primary Crosstabs: Men: 🔵 Platner +41 Women: 🔵 Platner +18 Democrats: 🔵 Platner +24 Indies: 🔵 Platner +33 Age 18-39: 🔵 Platner +36 Age 40-49: 🔵 Platner +20 Age 50-59: 🔵 Platner +48 Age 60-69: 🔵 Platner +20 Age 70+: 🔵 Platner +14 Platner also leads across every level of educational attainment

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Platner is the only one of the three candidates with a net positive favorability rating. If you re-calculate favorability among only those who have heard of each candidate: Platner: 🟢 52.5-47.5 (+5) Mills: 🔴 43-57 (-14) Collins: 🔴 40-60 (-20)

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters) DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE) 🔵 55% Platner (+27) 🔵 28% Mills — GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE) 🔵 48% Platner (+7) 🔴 41% Collins 🔵 46% Mills (+3) 🔴 43% Collins

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos) Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

High turnout in the open seat Dem primaries in IL-07 (touches 23 wards in central/South Side/West/Northwest Sides) & IL-09 (touches 7 wards in the Far North/North Lakefront) is very important for Stratton to run up the score in Chicago — necessary to offset expected deficits downstate.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Kelly is more likely to pull from Stratton citywide, but her congressional district only touches five wards (4, 5, 7, 9, 10 — the last of which is majority Latino and expected to favor Raja).

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions. Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards. Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards. Gray wards are usually competitive.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

And here are the full region definitions:

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

🔵 68% think the MD Senate should vote on the map the House of Delegates passed, which would flip one seat to Dems, giving them a 8D-0R map (the Dem-led Senate, led by Senate President @SenBillFerg, is currently refusing to hold a debate or a vote on it)

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800 likely Dem primary voters in Maryland (2/8-11) 🚨 🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points Buckle up.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.

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Reposted by Adam Carlson

MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go! Almost to the finish line folks! ✊

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Reposted by Adam Carlson

More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.

substack.perfectunion.us

Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins

After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

Lastly, Eric Adams’ (and Jim Walden’s) name will remain on the ballot. Absentee and early mail ballots started going out in the mail over a week ago. So Cuomo’s people will need to do some sort of public education campaign to NOT to vote for Adams for the low engagement voters.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

So the question for them becomes — does my disdain of Cuomo outweigh my fear of a Mamdani mayoralty? Or maybe I just like Sliwa and want to vote for him even knowing he has no path to victory?

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

But a lot of Rs simply don’t like Cuomo. Despite some chicanery with the IDC, he signed a lot of progressive legislation when he was governor (gun control, gay marriage, eliminating most cash bail, etc). And many Rs still resent his handling of COVID (vaccines, lockdowns, etc).

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

Sliwa is still very popular among Republicans, conservatives, Trump voters & Staten Islanders Polls in the coming weeks will tell us if that support starts to collapse & shift toward Cuomo (i.e. if Sliwa voters start to think of this is a two-person race & want to stop Mamdani)

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

With Sliwa all but certain to stay in the race (he said he turned down seven-figure offers to drop out), Cuomo’s best strategy moving forward is to convince Sliwa voters that they are wasting their vote — and essentially helping Mamdani — if they vote for Sliwa instead of Cuomo.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

But more impactful than movement in the polls is money. Cuomo’s people expect tens of millions of dollars to flow to his campaign/super PACs in the home stretch from anti-Mamdani donors But Adams frequently cited fundraising troubles, so it’s unclear if that’ll come to fruition

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

Here are the polls from September for the full field and the three-way field. The ones that are highlighted tested both scenarios. Sliwa exiting the race was always going to be more impactful than Adams leaving the race, but Sliwa isn’t going anywhere.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2025

I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

open.substack.com

Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?

The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Very tough to run for third consecutive Democratic term in the statehouse, and Sherrill is not exactly a world beater of a candidate. And to his credit, Ciattarelli has run a pretty disciplined campaign.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Ciattrelli hasn’t cracked 43% in an independent poll He has a path, but he’ll have to scratch and claw his way to adding any extra percentage points on his way to 50% It’s doable, but it would require a major fumble by Sherrill down the home stretch give who the undecideds are

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Thank you so much to @dwbeard.bsky.social, @davidnir.com & guest host @joesudbay.bsky.social for having me on! Listen here: Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0Mtu... Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

y.bsky.social

Bluesky

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

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