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Adam Carlson

@admcrlsn.bsky.social
11K followers 95 following 101 posts

Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.

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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Thank you to the 44 people who have donated a combined $15K+ to majority-making Dem House & Senate campaigns over the last few days! Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent. ⬇️
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Ok here’s a link where you can split your donations between the 7 Democratic Senate candidates who will determine the majority: Mary Peltola (AK) Josh Turek (IA) Troy Jackson (ME) Abdul El-Sayed (MI) Roy Cooper (NC) Sherrod Brown (OH) James Talarico (TX) secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
secure.actblue.com
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
While Democrats are favored to flip the House in November, it is by no means a done deal. In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact. secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31). Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026. Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters) DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE) 🔵 55% Platner (+27) 🔵 28% Mills — GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE) 🔵 48% Platner (+7) 🔴 41% Collins 🔵 46% Mills (+3) 🔴 43% Collins
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos) Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions. Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards. Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards. Gray wards are usually competitive.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800 likely Dem primary voters in Maryland (2/8-11) 🚨 🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points Buckle up.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.
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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go! Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
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More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
substack.perfectunion.us
Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins
After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 25/09/2025
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com
Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?
The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Ayyy that’s my poll
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon. More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research! After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Wild story in the WSJ. It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below. But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Oh ok
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
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Matt Holt @mattholt.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there. Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️ www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
CHICKEN COOP — WE NEVER LEFT
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Very early pass at the 2026 House landscape
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
My favorite thing about the late-called California House races (due to vote by mail) is that some Republicans are accusing Democrats are stealing them, yet they think we forgot to steal the presidency and Senate
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
You have got to be kidding me
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Most Americans are paying little-to-no attention to any of the Trump cabinet picks or ensuing drama.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
AOC is our party’s most effective messenger on ~90% of issues, and it’s not particularly close.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
The “just stop doing identity politics” crowd (Yglesias, etc.) really just want that to be the quick fix for the Democratic Party, but it really just reveals how lazy they are in the way they think about politics.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
I have a lot of respect for these folks. Not an easy vote to take, especially since they knew it would pass easily. Especially for Ossoff and Warnock.
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Does anyone remember watching the livestream of the ranked choice voting tabulation of the AK-AL special election in August 2022, where we were literally just watching someone click buttons on their desktop? It was legit thrilling.
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Wendy Siegelman @wendysiegelman.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
The FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, seizing phone, electronics Polymarket recently hired Nate Silver and raised $45 million led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and other funding from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi...
reuters.com
FBI raids Polymarket CEO's home, seizing phone, electronics, NY Post reports
Federal law enforcement agents raided the downtown New York home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on Wednesday, seizing his phone and electronics, according to a story in the New York Post.
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Vance Ulrich @vanceulrich.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
NEW: Michelle Steel's views on gay rights as she loses. MORE LATER!
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
We need to stop listening to the Obama & Clinton strategists We need to stop listening to the Pod Save America bros We need people who aren’t mentally mired in the past We need a new generation of strategists that are big picture innovators that aren’t afraid to take giant leaps into the unknown
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Beginning my deep dive process on the House seats (for both parties) I expect to be top tier targets in 2026. AZ-01 (R-Schweikert) is pretty much built for a midterm Dem flip. ✅ Poor performing incumbent that votes to the right of his district ✅ Very college educated ✅ Very wealthy ✅ Pretty white
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
I’m all for Democrats doing some soul-searching and changing our media/social media/communications strategies to build a more sustainable and successful electoral coalition. But even if we fuck that up (probable/likely) our best strategy for 2026/2028 is likely still gonna be “let Trump be Trump.”
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Big things are happening
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
With AZ-06 now called for Ciscomani (R), based on race projections from AP & DDHQ, Republicans have now clinched 218 seats in the House — giving them a majority & a trifecta There are still 8 outstanding races Republicans will likely end up with 220-222 seats vs. 213-215 for Dems God help us all
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Adam Carlson @admcrlsn.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
Rs are currently on pace to win 220-221 House seats 4 House Rs are reportedly being considered to join the Trump admin: Rogers (AL) Graves (MO) Stefanik (NY) Thompson (PA) If all are nominated & confirmed, that would mean they’d have 0-1 votes to spare until special elections
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