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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Unusual UK energy prices today: electricity at a low 14p/kWh, gas at over 10p/kWh. So a very low electricity:gas price ratio of 1.38. The heat pump crowd will be happy

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Cost today of charging a Kia EV3 at home: 6p per mile (21p/kWh, without a time-of-day tariff) Cost for a petrol Kia Sportage: 19p per mile (156p/L) With average 7,100 mileage: EV saves £900/year

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

An easy step people could think about is reducing warming aviation contrail effects above the Atlantic / Greenland, which we know can be done at very low cost by just tweaking a minority of flight paths

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Worrying armchair learning about Gulf LNG production: there's almost nowhere to store it; it's hard to turn off; and it's slow to turn back on

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

Here is the Government's new animal welfare strategy: www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

Animal welfare strategy for England

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

It's been a busy season of budget analysis for me. I will now be a lot quieter for a while: listening, reading, fact-finding, pondering. Happy holidays!

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...

adamcorlett.com

Don’t Panic: Britain is not broken – adamcorlett.com

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

There is almost no trace of the Budget on bbc.co.uk/news – presumably HMT will count that as a win

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

The number of children in poverty has probably hit new record highs this year, but will be significantly cut in 2026-27. New government projections: www.gov.uk/government/p...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

The 'High Value Council Tax Surcharge' is a big step to making annual property tax more proportional to value. Most homes already pay higher rates than mansions will. Unlike Council Tax it will be based on recent values, with five-yearly revaluation(?), and will be paid by owners not occupiers.

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Jonny Marshall @jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation

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Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September. In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze. This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.

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Ant Breach @antbreach.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how? Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

It's *possible* the Budget could be very green: 🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas 🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises 🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support 🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping 🟢 Help lower interest rates

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Keyless car theft devices selling online for £20,000, BBC finds

It is not illegal currently to own the gadgets but the government has promised to ban them.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...

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Sam Dumitriu @samdumitriu.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

This is rhetorically the most pro-building govt ever, but housebuilding has ground to a halt and Heathrow still expect their planning app to cost £800m to produce. The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing. www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...

samdumitriu.com

Rhetoric vs. Reality

Slogans won’t get Britain building again

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Clearly tax rises and May elections will be hard for Labour, but don't be 100% gloomy: there is also very likely voter-friendly news ahead on falling inflation, price caps, immigration and interest rates - and a fair chance that the 2026 budget could show 'our plan is working, here are some rewards'

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Clear conclusion from a new Animal Welfare Committee report about the main way pigs are killed: "Exposure to high concentrations of CO2 in commercial systems causes pigs to suffer pain, respiratory distress and fear... its use should be prohibited." www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

Opinion on the welfare impacts on pigs of high concentration CO2 gas stunning and of potential alternative stunning methods

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Combining a couple of thoughts from this, perhaps a good way to do electoral reform (and what LDs should have demanded in 2010) is an (Irish-style) two-stage process where an independent Citizens' Assembly ponders the best system and then their choice is put to the rest of the public in a referendum

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

It is surely much easier to make this change now – while most voters are not directly affected – than in 5 or 10 years' time. Majority support on both the left and right.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

Today's Bank of England outlook continues to support the idea that the OBR's March wage forecast is too low – despite the coming productivity downgrade. e.g. OBR forecast 2.3% pay growth for 2026, but the Bank and businesses they talk to expect ~3.5%. This matters a lot for the fiscal outlook.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 06/11/2025

This sounds promising: grappling with a big long-term tax issue. Though the suggested scale would be similar to the £200 EV VED rise that happened this April. And if the VAT 'pavement tax' were abolished at the same time, that might offset most of this cost for drivers without home chargers.

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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this? We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity: @nestauk.bsky.social

nesta.org.uk

Tax-free electricity

A proposal to remove most taxes on electricity to reduce bills and promote clean heating

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Not disagreeing with John's broader thesis here but I don't think this fact is true (& we can't trust the related rankings either). I think the UK top 10% are definitely better off than in 2000. The difference might be that this international data doesn't correct top incomes like domestic sources do

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

The Chancellor didn’t talk about tax reform this morning, but ideally the Budget would grapple with a range of longstanding tax problems. Here are 5 of the biggest challenges… www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

resolutionfoundation.org

Black holes and consolidations • Resolution Foundation

This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook ...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

On the subject of how many households are "net recipients", this new chart of ONS data suggests that indirect taxes have plummeted. But I suspect this is mostly due to this survey missing more and more spending each year - rendering any related time series fairly useless.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Taxes on the typical salary are now 55% higher than on self-employment income - a record gap. You're better off taking a self-employed role even if it's ~13% less productive. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

What are the politics of this for Labour? Given strong public opinion, is animal welfare a cheap, easy way to show centre/left voters it is making a difference, while making life awkward for any opponents tempted to say that this is all woke nonsense? (Particularly once inflation weakens.)

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Martin Gould @martinvgould.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

A striking quote in Bloomberg from the president of the World’s Poultry Science Association, an industry group, about modern meat chickens:

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

Real incomes for lower-income households have likely fallen this year, but a 6.2% rise in UC standard allowances next April should contribute to better news in 2026-27

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

In today's stats, UK monthly inflation was 0%. Inflation since April has been at an annualised rate of 1.9%, slightly lower than in May-Sept 2019 (when there was no inflation problem).

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Many of the people Katie Lam is threatening with deportation are entitled to vote in general elections, as Commonwealth or Irish citizens

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Ahead of the Animal Welfare Strategy, I wrote to my MP to encourage ambition. #EndTheCageAge, roll out mandatory labelling, and end the fur trade. adamcorlett.com/2025/10/20/l...

adamcorlett.com

Labour’s Animal Welfare Strategy should be decisive – adamcorlett.com

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

Surely it's unlikely that VAT on gas will be cut. It would be such a missed opportunity to improve the UK's damagingly high electricity to gas price ratio. There's no shortage of ways to cut electricity bills, to help all households. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

How much we should spend on PIP is one thing, but I think there's a good case that Motability's tax breaks are weirdly distortionary. It buys new cars without paying CO2-linked VED, or most VAT, and then sells them on after a few years. That's why 1 in 5 new cars now go through Motability.

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 17/10/2025

I laughed about Huel being “spiritually bad.” I also wish one could just trust media outlets that break news about supposedly troubling contamination to not lean into the story at the cost of scientific accuracy.

thebsdetector.substack.com

Huel is Fine

Breaking down the issues with Consumer Reports' investigative reporting on lead levels in protein supplements

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

The Government has already said that “subject to negotiations, we intend to expand the UK ETS to include emissions from international voyages”, like the EU. This news adds to the case for doing that – and HMT could even score ~£0.4bn a year for it at the Budget. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Landmark global shipping deal abandoned under US threats

President Trump intervened in the talks calling the deal a

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

It would cost £5 billion to keep freezing Fuel Duty, by 2029. It would cost £4 billion to take social levies, environmental levies and the Carbon Price Support off electricity bills and slash public EV charging VAT. Which is the better option?

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