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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Unusual UK energy prices today: electricity at a low 14p/kWh, gas at over 10p/kWh. So a very low electricity:gas price ratio of 1.38. The heat pump crowd will be happy

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Cost today of charging a Kia EV3 at home: 6p per mile (21p/kWh, without a time-of-day tariff) Cost for a petrol Kia Sportage: 19p per mile (156p/L) With average 7,100 mileage: EV saves £900/year

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

FWIW, I can see that my (UK) mobile bill has gone down from £10pcm in 2019 to £8pcm now, for a better service

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

But worth noting the previous chart ends in 2035, and if exponential growth continued beyond that then the result might be surprisingly different by 2050?

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

An easy step people could think about is reducing warming aviation contrail effects above the Atlantic / Greenland, which we know can be done at very low cost by just tweaking a minority of flight paths

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Worrying armchair learning about Gulf LNG production: there's almost nowhere to store it; it's hard to turn off; and it's slow to turn back on

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

Here is the Government's new animal welfare strategy: www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

Animal welfare strategy for England

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

We have pipped them on population though very similar. I think they're slightly ahead on GDP per capita, but only slightly, with UK median household income actually higher. They live a bit longer but are a bit less happy...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

It's been a busy season of budget analysis for me. I will now be a lot quieter for a while: listening, reading, fact-finding, pondering. Happy holidays!

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Yeah, though my point about size was that it can be easier to have very high GDP/head if you are a small population: you only need one or two successful niches - but that doesn't go as far with 10x as many people

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

We are richer than ever and there are only two countries that are both as rich per person and as populous as the UK: the US and Germany. While America might be richer, we live longer and equally happy lives – and even the safest US state has a higher homicide rate than London.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 30/11/2025

Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...

adamcorlett.com

Don’t Panic: Britain is not broken – adamcorlett.com

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

There is almost no trace of the Budget on bbc.co.uk/news – presumably HMT will count that as a win

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

The number of children in poverty has probably hit new record highs this year, but will be significantly cut in 2026-27. New government projections: www.gov.uk/government/p...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

I think people should be more confident than before the Budget, even if still suspicious bsky.app/profile/adam...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Hopefully a 1p Fuel Duty rise in September is a good way to break the taboo, and there's no Budget before then. It is less of a fiscal fiction than it has been, but we'll see... And maybe the approach of small, quarterly, automatic increases could be continued beyond 2026-27, instead of annual jumps

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

The 'High Value Council Tax Surcharge' is a big step to making annual property tax more proportional to value. Most homes already pay higher rates than mansions will. Unlike Council Tax it will be based on recent values, with five-yearly revaluation(?), and will be paid by owners not occupiers.

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Jonny Marshall @jonnymarshall.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation

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Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

💥 Govt says fuel duty to *go up* from next September. In the past the OBR has assumed that fuel duty would start to rise after a one-year freeze. This time, the govt has said explicitly that it will only be frozen for five months, and will start increasing it after that.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

To be optimistic, I don't think this year's £200 VED rise for EVs has deterred buyers?

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

It sounds like this Budget won't cut VAT on public EV charging, but will launch a review that might lead to doing it in Budget 2026

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Today I learned that NOx pollution from vehicles (esp. old diesels) and boilers interferes with insect scent. Yet another reason to electrify everything.

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Ant Breach @antbreach.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how? Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

It's *possible* the Budget could be very green: 🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas 🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises 🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support 🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping 🟢 Help lower interest rates

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

At the pessimistic end of the scale, at this point it's also totally possible that the Budget could just: 🔴 Cut gas costs more than electricity costs 🔴 Raise taxes on EVs to fund Fuel Duty cuts

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

A very worthwhile use of AI would be to work out when something on video footage was worth notifying the police (and owners). In future, 30 seconds into this, the police could already be aware, drones dispatched, number plates flagged and maybe even the car bricked. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Keyless car theft devices selling online for £20,000, BBC finds

It is not illegal currently to own the gadgets but the government has promised to ban them.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

This is a common take, but I think it rather depends on whether the changes are adding new unevenness to the tax system OR smoothing over existing unevenness

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

One likely extra reason for this £50k bump is that the basic rate of dividend tax is only 8.75% – 25 points lower than the higher rate of 33.75% – so company owner-managers will plan their finances around that.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

To be pedantic, that's not true of changing salary sacrifice: that's about National Insurance relief

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

And no-one over the age of 15 should be in education?

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Sam Dumitriu @samdumitriu.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

This is rhetorically the most pro-building govt ever, but housebuilding has ground to a halt and Heathrow still expect their planning app to cost £800m to produce. The problem is there's a massive gap between what Labour say they want and what they're doing. www.samdumitriu.com/p/rhetoric-v...

samdumitriu.com

Rhetoric vs. Reality

Slogans won’t get Britain building again

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Further info here: bsky.app/profile/clea...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Worth noting that part of the story here seems to be that the IEA has been pressured by the US to highlight a more favourable fossil fuel scenario: bsky.app/profile/drsi...

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Yes, I am making a big assumption that they step in to ensure bills fall rather than rise in April (via electricity cuts, hopefully)

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I'm not sure employer NI pension relief is a good way to direct >£20bn a year, but even if it is then it seems strange to deliver some of that in a really bureaucratic way that is random across employees, excludes the lowest paid and is harder for small businesses.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Clearly tax rises and May elections will be hard for Labour, but don't be 100% gloomy: there is also very likely voter-friendly news ahead on falling inflation, price caps, immigration and interest rates - and a fair chance that the 2026 budget could show 'our plan is working, here are some rewards'

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Ok, but then the >£20bn a year of employer NI pension relief (IFS calls it "extraordinarily generous") must be worth questioning in the short and long term

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I don't think the £100k trap is very relevant to the salary sacrifice rumours, as you can still put more money into your pension (to avoid the trap) without SS. And the status quo has random horizontal inequity between different workers based on whose employers have grappled with SS admin

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I don't really get the idea that big tax rises for everyone are very sensible but that broadening the tax base slightly - particularly among high earners - is intolerable. HMG needs to raise a lot of money, and this bit of pension tax relief is very generous and very uneven.

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Clear conclusion from a new Animal Welfare Committee report about the main way pigs are killed: "Exposure to high concentrations of CO2 in commercial systems causes pigs to suffer pain, respiratory distress and fear... its use should be prohibited." www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.uk

Opinion on the welfare impacts on pigs of high concentration CO2 gas stunning and of potential alternative stunning methods

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Yeah, I think the most plausible related change at this budget would be something on childcare at £100k

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

Having done some modelling on this, I think that would still be a big net tax cut, unfortunately. Much bigger rate rises / threshold cuts are needed to make it add up - which is surely why HMT hasn't done it so far

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

I think a middle band would be nice, but it doesn't matter too much (you're no worse off when you become a higher rate payer). Crazier thing is the 62% band from £100-125k, and other oddities

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Two reasons to focus Budget tax rises on non-wage income. 1. Tax rates on wages have long been higher than for other income. 2. The employer NI rise was a big tax wedge rise for most employees: even if non-wage taxes go up by 2p in April, wages would have had the biggest 2024-2026 effective tax rise

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

A relevant question is whether they are covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (unlike car fuel). If they are, there's less argument for fuel duty. If they aren't, that seems unfair. (In practice I think some are and some aren't.)

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

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Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

Based on the latest rumours, they could get ~£20bn from a combo of 2p basic rate tax switch, straight 2p rise for all higher incomes and a threshold freeze extension

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