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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

ERRATUM: I just realize that the hospital and death data on this chart was "raw" ie not corrected for late reporting The data corrected for late reporting still signals so far in fact a continued increase, not a peak So I killed the thread - Sorry for the confusion

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Also in Taiwan, the covid wave looks comparatively smaller than last year and is now receeding Let me add an interesting point on flu below though 1/2

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Interestingly, Switzerland got hit strongly in June, as much of western Europe north of the Alps / Pyrenees ... but then got hit equally strongly (and much more severely) as its neighbours in the 1st weeks of August The reason is simple 1/2

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Paris only ever came briefly out of tropical nights during the summer ... and surprise-surprise, it saw massive amounts of heat-triggered deaths The levels are almost hard to apprehend

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Other update on heat: England and Wales seem to have had another heat-triggered mortality episode during the week ending mid-August and this despite having already gone through two other such episodes this summer

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Quick update on 2026 heat mortality in France as @insee.fr released deaths up to Jul There was more heat excess in the aftermaths of "end of June" as initially expected and there was continuous heat triggered deaths up to mid-August at least I now come to 11-12k in total 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Quick head up: 2026 will see extreme heat in western Europe and high mortality (probably ~50k) triggered by it, esp in FR, Benelux and GER However, it is unlikely that the mortality will exceed that of 2022, because 2022 was also extreme in Iberia and Italy (which 2026 was less)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I was updating my temperature data for France which I model based on 7 cities including Marseille 2026 is really out of the norm there as well (despite the fact that it did not see the super-high heat that much of France saw at the end of June)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Measles: a look at the rates since 1950 - Vaccine got mandatory in 1963 so unless there is an alternative explanation for the abrupt reduction in 1964-68, the public health assumption has to be that / a highly effective vaccine "killed" the disease / vax should be encouraged no?

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

As measles deaths are a thing in the US, here an annual view by age band (I also show deaths with measles as contributing cause: Per definition, a contributing cause is one where the medic believes that, without out, the person would not have died at that moment so it's a cause of death)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

One thing surprises me in the measles situation in the US / I read everywhere: "no measles deaths so far in 2026" (pre Pennsylvania) / Yet when I tickle CDC wonder, it says: "two deaths (1 in MI / 1 in OH) where measles contributed to the death in 2026" What do I miss?

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Belgium released its mortality data up to end of July What remains intriguing, is that there is no "obvious" sign of mortality deficit after the heat episode among the <65 I would really like to understand what the profile is of these deaths ... Let's hope someone makes a study 1/2

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Germany seemed to have seen a second peak of mortality triggered by heat this summer but there is no sign in the French data despite continued high temperatures (NB: deaths past June are ballpark correct own estimates using the French national mortality surveillance)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Interestingly, the heat wave of early August led to a second peak of mortality in parts of Germany, but one which is much smaller Is it due to - weakened people for whom the 2nd wave was too much? - situational deaths? Without more detailed info, we will never know

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

If you wonder about the paper on excess mortality that got retracted: Here its argumentation why vaccines could be a cause / adverse effects are under-reported / there is no consensus that vaccines do not cause more harm (citation - an opinion piece by a French "alt thinker") ... 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Is this well-known? Look at the blue part: Natural deaths (excl covid)in the young in the US stayed roughly unchanged over the pandemic The "bump" of mortality / starts with the pandemic (and thus not with the vax campaign) / is entirely due to covid and external causes

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

On cancer rates in the United States: It is clear that there is an increase beyond trend of colorectal cancer rates in the <65 However, this is no "gotcha" for those who believe in covid vaccines as cause 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Excess mortality by region during the heat event of June (weeks 25-27) are now really essentially final (I added Berlin and Hamburg which were missing so far) Worst hit: Île-de-France, Saarland and Rheinland-Pfalz No excess: Schleswig-Holstein and Provence-Alpes Côte-Azur 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Just in case "turbo-cancer" is still a thing (it has been a while since I last saw a post), Destatis released death figures by cause up to full year 2025 Here an overview with some trends of annual deaths due to cancer in Germany

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Boris Johnson (UK covid inquiry): "I was under the impression that not killing your pop is the primal objective of a gov" Sec Kennedy (yesterday): "Constitutional rights are more important than public health" This shows how base principles not science drive a pandemic response

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

A quick warning about this RKI chart from its heat mortality surveillance which puts heat deaths at ~9,000 so far in 2026 Per RKI's own recommendation, it is best not to use this as its model is currently significantly underestimating heat mortality (which is closer to 16k) 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

@insee.fr released France's daily deaths up to 30/6 so I was curious for Paris (one of the regions hardest hit by the heat in Europe) The impact is "beyond": On Friday 26/6, Paris saw more deaths than on any day during pandemic, incl during its huge wave 1

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

@statistik.at released weekly deaths up to 12/7 which confirms my preliminary estimates (based on retro-engineering weekly deaths from EUROMOMO's z-scores - it's remarkably accurate!) Austria got "severely hit" (I come to 500 excess deaths) but nothing like Belgium, France and Germany

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

UKHSA released a preliminary assessment of the heat impact on England this morning It estimates the excess at 2,800 for both the May and June event Sparing you the details but this is broadly in line with what I expected (remember, this is for England, I did England and Wales)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Here is my thinking on the Fauci saga a) He doesn't seem to realize that "convinced XYZ to close schools" is a political not a scientific action b) This lack of awareness is probably why he had this extraordinary stupid idea to hold a running agenda on his office PC 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

With the release by ONS this morning, the death occurrences estimates for England and Wales are now "firm" enough (+/- 100) for an assessment 1) The June wave led to 2,000-2,500 excess deaths with no "negative excess" afterwards, ie these are not only frail people "dying 1-2 weeks earlier" 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Germany now starts to release (still preliminary) daily deaths by Federal State for period of the June heat wave I was curious about the Saarland, the worst hit region in western Europe during the heat wave Well, it looks as if a bomb hit it ... 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

The papers in Belgium relay the fact that "Belgium was the worst hit country during the heat wave in Europe" That's correct but is the result of the fact that all its geography was under the impact If you look by region, you see that parts of Germany and France fared far worse 1/2

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

@insee.fr released its death data via Eurostat up to 12/7 which also allows a view by age by Region The impact on Paris is truly "beyond"... Look at the 15-44, three events stand out since 2013 - The Terrorist attack of Nov 15 - Wave 1 of covid in Apr 20 - The heat wave of Jun 26 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

I was able to retro-engineer deaths from EUROMOMO z-scores to remarkable accuracy and get good estimates for Italy and Austria So here is a picture of weekly % excess* in heat weeks by country in Western Europe It shows how much FRA, GER and BEL stand out in June 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

France released two interesting documents recently - Excess mortality by Département (by Santé Publique France) - Heat Warning by Département (by Météo France) I allowed myself to plot two charts next to each other I know the link ... but it remains striking

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

@statbel-en.bsky.social released the Belgian death data up to 5/7 and, as in France, the heat wave had a huge effect on the 45-64 age band In fact, this age band saw higher weekly deaths than at any moment of the pandemic (and probably since WWII) A few more comments below 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

@santepubliquefrance.fr published a very interesting report on the heat mortality during the June heat wave in France 1) Most deaths happened at home 2) All age bands were affected (worst was 45-64!) 3) Excess was focused geographically (where the heat was the most intense)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

We start to get some indication of the impact of the June heat wave in England+Wales: ~2,000 up to 3/7 Take this as an order of magnitude: Death occurrences take ages to stabilize in England and Wales and the 2,000 is based on a statistical correction tool so can still be off

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Unsurprisingly, Germany also saw excess mortality in the w/e 12/7: The ultra-heat may have been over by 1/7 but Germany continued to see heat wave level temperatures after that Eventually, this heat event will lead to 16-18k deaths, ie a level not far off the mega-event in France in 2003 ...

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Here a preliminary (ie qualitative not quantitative) picture on the June heat excess by region It paints a hotspot composed of central-eastern France, the south of Belgium (Wallonia), and central-western Germany with Luxembourg and Grand Est (France) as (low) outliers 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Hmm... After Netherlands yesterday, now France seems to hint at a (heat) mortality rebound in the week ending Jul 12, after respite in the week before NB: hint, not clear message as it's based on highly incomplete data It would put the total excess at ~7,500 so far 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

An update on the heat wave in Germany with estimates for the week ending 5/7 by Federal State Clearly, the impact of the heat wave was not uniform It hit above all the central-western States, ie Saarland (>100% excess...), Rheinland-Pfalz, Hessen, and Nordrhein-Westfalen

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

As England now saw an equally high number of days with max temp >30°C in 2026 as in the historic "hot" year 1976, this may be a good moment to remind everyone that heat waves did also cause spikes of deaths back then #nothingnewunderthesun (bad punt intended)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Destatis released almost final death data up to 5/7 for Germany (there will be some minor correction upwards from reporting delays for the last days) The heat wave generated ~12,000 excess deaths vs. the ~2,500 daily expected before the heat wave I added some perspective on this below 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Off-topic quiz for the statistics minded Just heard on BBC breakfast on no-low alcoholic drinks / A poll found that 45% people do "zebra striping" (alternate alc's and nolo's) / No-lo represent 2% of pub sales Q: What is the ratio of dark to white stripes on an English zebra?😀

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

It doesn't look as if England saw any meaningful excess mortality in 2026w26 It's based on very incomplete registrations but even taking into account past outliers, the excess will not be really big A few thoughts though 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

And finally, an update on France where @santepubliquefrance.fr updated its data / My estimate of last week is confirmed (ie 5,000) / To this one needs to add another 1,500 in the week ending 5/7 / So the heat wave at the end of June will have lead to approx 6,500 heat deaths in France

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

@rivm-nl.bsky.social updated its death mortality today for the Netherlands Plotting their figures into my charts indicates that the heat episode led to 1,000 heat deaths This would be markedly less (pro-rata) than in Belgium, France or Germany

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

@sciensano.be released an analysis of the heat mortality in Belgium at the end of June It upped its initial estimate of heat deaths to 1,750 (similar to the toll Belgium saw in the Aug 2020 heat wave) I scrapped the death data into my tool: How deaths suddenly spike is simply phenomenal

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Reposted by Jean Fisch

Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

ADDENDUM: I think this chart with daily deaths during summer from 2000 to 2026 actually shows best how exceptional the heat mortality has been at the end of June 2026 in Germany (thx to @benfire71 over on twitter for asking the question of summer deaths and triggering the idea for the chart)

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

The German Stats Offfice (Destatis) just released death data up to 28/6 for Germany These are preliminary (and will still increase a bit) but already now a) Germany saw over 7,500 excess deaths in the weeks ending on 21/6 & 28/6 b) Jun 28 saw more deaths than any day the pandemic in Germany 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

The topic is critical in excess mortality analysis: An analysis by underlying cause is bound to fail because the underlying cause is often not what will trigger the moment of death But I have read this paper twice: I don't see anything except assumptions and speculations 1/

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

@santepubliquefrance.fr released its mortality surv update up to 28/6 based on electronic death certificates I developed a while ago a toy tool to deduce all weekly deaths that is "good enough to 3-5%" Ballpark death toll linked to the heat episode end of June will be 5,000 in France

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Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

Also England saw a big heat wave and there are debates about whether "it's bigger than 1976" The big difference are the minimal daily temperatures, which have been way higher than anything seen in 1976 1/2

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