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Abigail Gray

@abigaildgray.bsky.social
116 followers 63 following 14 posts

Post Bacc Psychology Research | Intergroup relations, existential psych, LGBTQIA+ research | she/they

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Olivia Guest · Ολίβια Γκεστ @olivia.science · 08/05/2026
Preprinted! Been working on this for ~1 year w wonderful coauthors Nancy & Mark: > Understanding Artificial Neural Networks: Mysterianism about Known Mechanism is Mysticism doi.org/10.5281/zeno... Have you noticed many experts say they don't understand AI? What's going on? 🤯 Let us tell you... 1/
Understanding Artificial Neural Networks:
Mysterianism about Known Mechanism is Mysticism
Olivia Guest1,2, Nancy Abigail Nuñez Hernández3, and Mark Blokpoel1,2
1Department of Cognitive Science and Artificial Intelligence, Radboud University, The Netherlands
2Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition, and Behaviour, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
3Facultad de Estudios Superiores Acatlán-Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
Mysterianism is the idea that human cognition, mind, cannot be understood. Taking this
concept and applying it to known mechanism — such that claims are made that we do not
know how engineered systems, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), work, or that they
constitute black boxes that we can only open with difficulty — is inappropriate at best and
malicious at worst. We do know the mechanistic structure of such models because we designed
and built them. We also do know their functional role (what they are for) as well as the
mathematical function they are asked to approximate (map inputs to target outputs). Because
mysterianist beliefs about known systems, such as ANNs, are often expressed, scientists need
to sit up and take notice. We provide an error theory as to what is going on to help unpick
this metatheoretical blunder. Ultimately, the problem is that ‘understanding’ is not a technical
term in these cases: the word is co-opted for a specific narrative to sell ‘artificial intelligence’
through mystification. All computational systems, from pendulums to databases, will behave
in ways we cannot predict or control — this is not a unique property of ANNs — and experts
do indeed grasp the computational properties of these systems nonetheless.
Keywords: artificial neural networks; mechanism; black box; epistemology; artificial
intelligence; understanding4 GUEST, NUÑEZ HERNÁNDEZ, & BLOKPOEL≈
ANNs are equiva-
lent to or inspired
by humans.
α
≡
ANNs are a black
box or unknowable,
even if opened.
β
≡
Humans are a black
box or unknowable.
γ
Figure 1
Three co-occurring (latent) assertions in the context of con-
temporary reasoning on AI and cognition. While they may
appear to hang together in “reflective equilibrium” (Elgin 2017),
their metatheoretical examination brings their contradictions to
light. Starting from the top, and moving clockwise: 𝛼) represents
the typical assertion of so-called cognitive, neural, or otherwise
biological plausibility or inspiration presented for ANNs; 𝛽) is
the claim we tackle head on here — both in terms of analysing
the constituent terms and in how it relates to the other two
assumptions; and 𝛾) exemplifies a type of mysterianism, which
while not always explicitly expressed, plays a background role
and importantly comes into conflict with the other two claims
in important waysMYSTERIANISM ABOUT KNOWN MECHANISM IS MYSTICISM 11World
?Di
Data?Si
ANN
Figure 3
Not all systems, 𝑆𝑖 relate to their relevant data, 𝐷𝑖 and world
phenomena this way, but ANN models (as many inferential
statistical models) do when used without scientific understand-
ing of the data-generating process or without verbal or formal
theory to match (Guest and Martin 2025b, 2021, 2023). As we
move from left to right above, we move from full understanding
of engineered systems, 𝑆𝑖 to less or even possibly none of the
data, 𝐷𝑖 to the world which can be thought of as the set of
phenomena to be understood.
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
No, a LOT of them think that. Science may be one of the most social forms of knowledge production we have. Arguably it’s at least as social as creative writing. Actual scientists will tell you this. Yet, millions of people think they can do science alone with an LLM.
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
29 scholars reflect on their participation in adversarial collaborations: “Rather than producing a clear 'winner,' the most common outcome was a deeper understanding of the problem space through the integration of opposing perspectives” Open Access: doi.org/10.1007/s111... #MetaSci #Methodology 🧪
There is much enthusiasm, in principle, for adversarial collaborations (ACs), a scientific conflict resolution technique that encourages investigators with clashing models to collaborate in designing studies that test competing predictions. Adversarial collaborations offer the promise of breaking deadlocked debates, resolving disputes, and providing a deeper, more comprehensive understanding of a research domain. In practice, however, adversarial collaborations are more the exception than the rule, and there is almost no evidence on how scholars who have ventured into ACs assess the experience. To understand these perspectives, we surveyed and interviewed 29 scholars who participated in 13 AC projects. The data revealed that interpersonal conflicts were generally minor, that these projects required more upfront effort than typical collaborations, but benefited from high-quality results and more thoughtful post-publication debates. Rather than producing a clear “winner,” the most common outcome was a deeper understanding of the problem space through the integration of opposing perspectives. Although the generalizability of these findings is limited by a sample consisting only of scholars who completed an AC, they nonetheless highlight the value of ACs as a tool for advancing scientific inquiry and offer practical guidance for scholars and journals exploring this approach.
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
My friend and colleague Remco Heesen once told me study of social epistemology of science made him "less trusting of any particular scientific paper but more impressed by science as a whole." I honestly think that's the right lesson to draw. But I think holding both attitudes doesn't come naturally.
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
great article—give it a read!
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Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 12/06/2025
NSF is rejecting near-perfect applications for DEI-related projects on the grounds that they don't fit administration priorities. And I worry that the administration's goal isn't just to stop DEI research but to push the scholars doing this work out of academia, since tenure often hinges on grants.
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Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 22/05/2025
International students upend their lives to join American science, bringing their novel insights that drive innovation. Now, they are being illegally targeted by Trump, because Harvard won't back down. Classic bully behavior. We Stand Up for International Students. www.npr.org/2025/05/22/n...
npr.org
Trump administration revokes Harvard's ability to enroll international students
International students make up more than a quarter of Harvard University's student body. Harvard says the government's actions, which could cut off a major revenue stream, are "unlawful."
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Daniel Gilbert @danielgilbert.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
Since 1954, "The Handbook of Social Psychology" has been the field’s most authoritative reference work, and today is the launch of the 6th edition with 50 new chapters by 100 leading scholars. Best news? The HSP is now an open-access public resource—free to read, download, and share. the-hsp.com
Cover of the Handbook of Social Psychology 6th edition 2025
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Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD @elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
There’s been some “advice” coming from some quarters for scientists not to focus on DEI-related funding cuts. I wholly reject this concept. Cutting programs designed to reduce science and healthcare disparities is as detrimental to science as anything else, both morally and functionally.
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Evan Torner @guyintheblackhat.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
There is a false dichotomy drawn between "the ivory tower" and "the real world," and I'm here to report that in a post-industrial society, your real-world economy absolutely hinges on the university. University towns are factory towns. Universities drive economic activity, not the other way around.
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Pam Davis-Kean, PhD @umpamdk.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
These are important points. Univ. of Michigan is the 3rd largest employer in Michigan. Due to stable jobs and good benefits, people with all educ. backgrounds have jobs. So do places UM buys from.
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Jennifer Richeson @jaricheson.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
“This hollowing out [of NSF] … has material consequences for which research questions get asked, which datasets get produced, which knowledge gets produced, and which perspectives shape our understanding of pressing societal challenges.” time.com/7285045/resi...
time.com
Why I’m Resigning from the NSF and Library of Congress
I cannot participate in systems that require dishonesty as the price of belonging.
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
i’ve used ERIC for both my own research and especially as a library ref worker helping students find resources for writing papers. ERIC getting shut down will be so detrimental on so many levels
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Sherrilyn Ifill @sifill.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Our Librarian of Congress was terminated by the Trump Admin yesterday despite her exemplary service. Dr. Carla Hayden is a librarian non pareil - an historian, researcher, & dedicated public servant. Fear of Black excellence cannot erase her accomplishments or the gift of her service. #Blacksky
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Michael W. Kraus @mwkraus.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
I am teaching my phd writing workshop course this quarter, question: are there any words/phrases said to you by an advisor/mentor that stuck with you, were memorable, or particularly helpful? If so please reply below!
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
as i’m writing up a manuscript right now this is clearer then ever, and it’s remarkable to see things that took up so much intentional thought make up one line in the final paper
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
Very useful set of guidelines for conducting social psychology lab experiments by @eddiehj.bsky.social, @davidamodio.bsky.social, and colleagues. Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Few quotes follow…
Table 1
Summary Guidelines for Conducting Lab Experiments in Motivation and Emotion
___________________________________________________________________________
Pre-Manipulation Setup
•	Consider physical environment on the way to the lab room
•	Consider physical environment of lab room (e.g., cameras, mirror, room size, social)
•	Create a plausible cover story
•	Be mindful of the psychological state of participants at the start of experiment

Experimenters/Confederates
•	Ensure consistency between multiple experimenters/confederates
•	Compare effect of multiple experimenters statistically
•	Keep appearance/clothing consistent
•	Be cognizant of informal/formal style of interacting
•	Note differences in physical attractiveness
•	Track emotion and personality variables of experimenters
•	Keep blind to condition

Independent Variables (IVs)
•	Use a strong IV – aim for a psychological sledgehammer
•	Be careful that IV is not so strong that participants ignore DV
•	Ensure multiple IVs are similar in strength
•	Check effectiveness of manipulation and appreciate its complexity
•	Pre-test to insure IVs are the same psychologically in different times and places
•	Avoid experimenter demand
•	Avoid confounds

Dependent Variables (DVs)
•	Create sensitive DVs
•	Consider challenges with self-reported effort 
•	Consider challenges with self-reported emotion
•	Be aware that the order of presentation of variables might influence results
•	Pretest

Applying Guidelines to Replications
•	Consider the benefits of conceptual replications for theory testing
•	Select studies for replication that have a reasonable chance of being replicated
•	Note that expectations of non-replication influence researchers and outcomes
•	Use exact original method when replicating a specific effect
•	Test correlations that logically follow from experimental hypotheses if possible
•	Insure participating labs in projects follow instructions of the study coordinators

Data Management
•	Take steps to avoid errors i…
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Liz Neeley @lizneeley.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
We *must* protect the National Museum of African American History and Culture.
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
“Our teaching and research only matter under general conditions of freedom and dignity. These conditions do not exist under the threat of arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, deportation, or suspension of medical care. “ Worth the read!
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ACLU @aclu.org · 07/03/2025
BREAKING: In response to our lawsuit, the National Endowment for the Arts will no longer force grant applicants to certify that they won't promote "gender ideology." This is a big step toward defeating the NEA's unconstitutional censorship.
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Max Kozlov @maxkozlov.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
“It’s extremely alarming that grants that have been vetted by the scientific community and deemed important and impactful to understand the world are now being cancelled because of political ideology,” says @lkfazio.bsky.social. “This is direct censorship of scientific research.”
nature.com
Exclusive: NIH to terminate hundreds of active research grants
Studies that touch on LGBT+ health, gender identity and DEI in the biomedical workforce could be terminated, according to documents obtained by Nature.
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Alondra Nelson @alondra.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Excellent 🧵 on this evening's NIH announcement of a dramatic reduction in indirect rates for research institutions, which amounts to a generational restructuring of the US research and development ecosystem. These cuts are effective immediately, not just for new grants but for existing ones.
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Alt CDC (they/them) @altcdc.altgov.info · 01/02/2025
The entire archive of CDC datasets can be found here. HUGE shoutout to data archivists- this work is important 👏🙌🏻 archive.org/details/2025...
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
i’ve used the YRBSS several times for school projects and the fact that it’s just GONE is insane—and so so concerning
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
"I encourage researchers to take risks and submit daring work to Social Psychology, even when they fail or might fail in the future." Editorial from @akfetterman.bsky.social, the new Editor-in-Chief of Social Psychology (@socpsyjournal.bsky.social). doi.org/10.1027/1864...
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Bitsy Perlman @bitsyperlman.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
It's such a weird thing to hear the news and think "that's bad, but also I have a paper about (an aspect) of that" Funding delays are really not great for people who work in science. Funding delays of > 30 days lead to: - 40% increase in scientists exiting US labor force - 20% decrease in wages
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Dave Levitan @davelevitan.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
The NIH gets >50,000 applications for its primary grant type every year and it’s already so cash strapped that the success rate has only recently crept back over 20 percent. You could triple the NIH budget with money the Pentagon loses in the couch cushions and find plenty of worthy science to fund.
Chart showing the 50k-plus applications to NIH r01 grants every year along with the funded grants down around 10k and the success rate at about 20%
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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
“In practice, the question that is answered true or false in confirmatory scientific research is ‘do scientists adequately understand the theoretical hypothesis and associated research methods to reliably make accurate verifiable predictions?’” dx.doi.org/10.1037/met0... #Methodology #MetaSci 🧪
Falsifiable research is a basic goal of science and is needed for science to be self-correcting. However, the methods for conducting falsifiable research are not widely known among psychological researchers. Describing the effect sizes that can be confidently investigated in confirmatory research is as important as describing the subject population. Power curves or operating characteristics provide this information and are needed for both frequentist and Bayesian analyses. These evaluations of inferential error rates indicate the performance (validity and reliability) of the planned statistical analysis. For meaningful, falsifiable research, the study plan should specify a minimum effect size that is the goal of the study. If any tiny effect, no matter how small, is considered meaningful evidence, the research is not falsifiable and often has negligible predictive value. Power ≥ .95 for the minimum effect is optimal for confirmatory research and .90 is good. From a frequentist perspective, the statistical model for the alternative hypothesis in the power analysis can be used to obtain a p value that can reject the alternative hypothesis, analogous to rejecting the null hypothesis. However, confidence intervals generally provide more intuitive and more informative inferences than p values. The preregistration for falsifiable confirmatory research should include (a) criteria for evidence the alternative hypothesis is true, (b) criteria for evidence the alternative hypothesis is false, and (c) criteria for outcomes that will be inconclusive. Not all confirmatory studies are or need to be falsifiable.
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Kevin M. King @kevinmking.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
The basic principle is that reviewers are tired, they're rushed, they're reading your and 10 other grants on top of their normal workload. Anything you can do to make it easy for them will help. Here's a list of my suggestions.
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Abigail Gray @abigaildgray.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Had a great time at #ABCT2024 presenting my poster on death anxiety in LGBTQ+ college students! It was great seeing all the wonderful research in the room:)
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