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Here's a list I bet nobody would have picked out 10 years ago. Wide receivers who were rookies in 2016 and are still active: Tyreek Hill (maybe?) Chris Moore Kalif Raymond Demarcus Robinson Sterling Shepard Laquon Treadwell

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Flacco was surprisingly good last year and Burrow surprisingly not that great when he played. Probably just a one-year blip in both cases.

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Would have to look at blitz rates in these specific games.

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Nope, just uses general opponent adjustment for Bengals. But of course part of the reason he was a disaster was the Vikings D was so good.

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

FTN @ftnfantasy.com · 6h

The good news for Rams fans is that the NFL season is far from over — both @aaronschatz.com & @miketanier.bsky.social believe LA is still one of the strongest teams in the NFC, but not without flaws! Listen in as FTN's fearsome duo explore on the latest episode of Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast 🏈

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There are definitely some anecdotal games that stand out as good defensive games (Falcons in first Penix start in 2024, 34-7 over Giants) but in general defenses don't stand out in these games.

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Quickly looked at this theory. Does not appear to be true in 2024-2025. I looked at every game with a new starter except Week 18. Average defensive DVOA is about +4.0%, and that would be worse if not for an outlier Vikings game in Week 3 of 2025 (-77.4% defense in 48-10 win over CIN).

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Trying harder. I mean, there's a lot we don't know about sports psychology. If you can prove it, it's not the same as momentum. The problem with momentum is that you can't prove it means anything...

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 11h

. @benjaminsolak.bsky.social also has a theory on the latest @minakimes.bsky.social podcast that defenses play better in the first game or two with a backup QB because teammates feel like they've got to make up for the loss of the starter. Hoping to test that in the next couple days.

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I do some DVOA-based wager picks each week for FTN subscribers, and here we go with my picks for Week 4. Go Jalon Daniels! ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoas-fa...

DVOA's Favorite Bets for Week 4 of the NFL Season

The data is accumulating now. Aaron Schatz picks out his five favorite bets for Week 4 based on DVOA.

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Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 30/09/2026

Facebook now has only three types of content: Right-wing antisemitic memes Left-wing antisemetic memes Angine de Poitrine videos

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Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Football Card of the Day: 1980 Topps Vikings Team Leaders The Vikings went 7-9 in 1979 and finished 17th out of 28 teams in points allowed but apparently they weren't popular enough to do cards for any defenders. Paul Krause and Jim Marshall retired before 1980, which is part of the reason.

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

I made a supercut of the 4 Makai Lemon screen passes I could find from the first 3 weeks. Those plays gained -5, -3, -5, and -3 yards. Some Eagles receivers missed blocks. But even to my untrained eye, Lemon's motion in the backfield telegraphs the plays. I think Sean Mannion should scrap them.

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Honestly, I would have to leave. There's no way I'm getting work done after the game.

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When I went to the Cowboys I actually sat in a fan box not in the press box but I definitely need to go back and do the press box.

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Yeah. Pats have a good veggie mix with squash, peppers, and onions, and some mac and cheese usually. But it's tough for veggies.

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Since Jimmy Kempski was last in New England, the quality of the press box desserts has gone way down but they got rid of the terrible post-game pizza and have much better post-game appetizer-like snacks.

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Thank you, and on first glance, he's right about Jacksonville. Alas.

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I enjoy going to different stadiums and try to do it at least once per season. I'll be in Baltimore for the first time when the Ravens play the Jaguars on Thursday night November 4.

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I love stuff like this and would like to read it for the NFL. I think Philly might be the best food of a stadium I've been in the press box for. That doesn't count the SB (aux press box gets crap food) or Dallas (didn't sit in the press box). Pats do give lobster rolls early in the season.

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Here's a table that didn't make it into this week's DVOA commentary. The Falcons have one of the biggest gaps ever between pass and run offense at this point in the season -- the biggest since 2003.

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New DVOA ratings and commentary: 49ers as one of the best teams ever through Week 3, Texans and Rams better than you think, the Patriots' big fall and the Jaguars' rise. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-d...

Week 3 DVOA: San Francisco Keeps Sailing

The 49ers are one of the 10 best teams ever by DVOA after an Arizona win that was much bigger than the final score. Also better than you think: Texans and Rams.

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DVOA Playoff Odds now updated. We give a 13.3% chance for the Super Bowl we call "Chris Berman's Dream" (Bills-49ers) ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LXI

NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LXI based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Matthew Stafford has thrown more pick-sixes than anyone in NFL history. And this isn't random trivia -- he has been uniquely proficient at it, and his record may never be beaten.

lateral-thinking.ghost.io

Matthew Stafford, King of the Pick-Six

Matthew Stafford has thrown more pick-sixes than anyone in NFL history. And this isn't random trivia -- he has been uniquely proficient at it, and his record may never be beaten.

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Just watched the second half of the game and Johnson was phenomenal at scheming open guys.

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Even the most veteran of quarterbacks can misread the coverage.

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What third-string quarterback? That seemed easy.

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OMG this mariachi band doing the national anthem is amazing and an incredibly subversive political statement that I did not expect to come from… Chicago Bears management?

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FTN @ftnfantasy.com · 28/09/2026

The 2000 Ravens weren't really a historically great team until the playoffs and they lost Week 3. The 1985 Bears were at 44.8% after Week 3 which was the best that year but not historically awesome. The 44-0 and 36-0 victories came later in the year.

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Reposted by Aaron Schatz

49ers too powerful for the substation😤

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For you Justin Herbert fans, based on current DVOA the Chargers play the toughest remaining schedule of opposing defenses. The Vikings play the easiest... followed by the Jaguars. (Of course, Houston's defense is likely better than their current rating.)

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I know that I have readers who are critical of Peter for various reasons, maybe the feeling that he represents the establishment, but he is truly one of the nicest people I have met in my 23 years of doing this. Peter Gammons was the same way when I met him.

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I got an early copy of Peter's book and it's really good. It's like a greatest hits of interesting bits of NFL history since the mid-80s. Very much recommended. I was honored that he mentioned me (and Brian Burke and Michael Lopez) as sort of honorable mention in his Top 100 NFL people.

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New Quick Reads: Best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR, highlighted by the two best fantasy players of this season: Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-3-q...

Week 3 Quick Reads: Gibbs and Robinson Shine

It's not very often that two running backs have games as good as Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in the same week. Plus, best and worst players of Week 3 by DYAR.

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After three games, the Commanders are first in run defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA.

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Don’t mess with 199, that’s the Brady pick number.

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There isn't a lot of opponent adjustment this early in the season, so it's not that. By my eye test, he's fine, it's the OL and the WR who are the problem. Which honestly is the same as last year. The Texans offense was better than people thought last year too.

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The Houston offense is almost exactly the same as last year by DVOA! Texans offense 2025: -2.4% (19th) Texans offense 2026: -2.7% (17th) They've lost two very close games and the defense was not as good as last year in Week 1 against Buffalo.

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NFL Week 3 Recap: Contenders Emerging, 0-3 Panic & Biggest Surprises

Join me and @miketanier.bsky.social at noon Eastern to discuss all of the crazy Week 3 results in the NFL. www.youtube.com/live/7DIXCEn...

youtube.com

YouTube video by FTN

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