iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I have some backtesting ideas for initial scoping. Like, we have SROI guesses for already-built CIG-funded projects. We can ask how much social value would have been unlocked if the average CIG dollar had the same SROI as a 75th percentile CIG project to scope the value of CIG reform

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Yeah CAYIMBY had some down years on this basis for sure! The one-year-only ex post Social Return on Investment in several years was below the ex ante SROI central estimate. But look at SB35/423 advocacy. SB423's advocacy budget that year paid out >500x SROI *on nonmarket units alone*

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

In NY, we're still at a stage where a symbolic win on state supervision of local control is an acceptable form of "defeat" in 2027 But the ultimate goal is legalizing clean, feasible apartments by right next to transit & downtowns. Even intermediate symbolic steps need a legible path to that goal

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

You can absolutely estimate upper & lower bounds for every parameter. And then check to see if the lower bound is above the hurdle, or if the upper bound is below the hurdle SROI rate If even bad-case scenarios pay out, amazing. If even best-case scenarios can't pay out, you've dodged a time-waster

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I'm curious: If you don't write down what you're doing & why, how can you tell whether TOD or YIGBY or the poorly written dead-mall bill are the right bets for 2027?

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Yeah that's not...that's not how it works.

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

*Project-level* social BCA is fairly mature in USDOT's implementation of Circular A4 for discretionary grants. (Conceptually at least. CG has different parameters for VSL, CO2, etc than USDOT) But a CG transpo vertical won't value individual projects. So we need new surrogate endpoints for welfare

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

It's very hard to know what the future holds But it's also important to check: "If my reforms win, will they do anything?" It's fine when you're starting to work on messaging bills and half-loaf victories! But your long-run goal has to be SB79 etc. A

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I had conceptually similar (albeit more polite lol) questions coming into the interview process for the role, I totally get it. But it's good for me to get a signal that more methodologcal transparency here is valuable. I was afraid nobody would be interested lol

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Even advocacy focused on power-building, coalitions, or pure symbolism, contains an implied bet on what *actual* reform that intermediate win helps you get Writing down the terms of that bet helps make sure you don't accidentally blow years on messaging bills that don't ever yield feasible units!

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Obviously, I've spent my adult life as a think tanker on the grantee side. I know most advocacy is more opportunistic than deterministic But every action a grantee takes *necessarily* contains an *implicit* bet about the feasibility & desirability of that action, whether you write it down or not!

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

CG's surrogate endpoint for social BCA on housing advocacy is indeed the expected # of housing units unlocked in metros with the biggest "Glaeser Wedge" estimates A naive approach to this would indeed be naive. But I will write before YIMBYTown on what the non-naive approach looks like!

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David Schleicher @profschleich.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

❗New Article❗ The Great American Property Tax Freakout! Since 2024, many states have radically reshaped their property tax systems.The changes are an example of a national trend of carving out influential groups from taxation, in this case a majority group: homeowners papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

The Great American Property Tax Freak Out

There has been a lot of news over the last two years, so it is understandable that neither the mass media nor the legal academy has focused on what is happening

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Using TRB's federal manual for transit planning, 40 units per gross acre is the breakpoint at which land use is most supportive of transit. This is physically realistic! Use the live map tools to see for yourself and do your own analysis! tod-primary-tools-tiiny-toggle.tiiny.site

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

New AGF blog: Transit-Oriented Development is a surprisingly underrated way to end America’s housing problems Physically realistic capacity near rail alone is >30M homes. Financially plausible capacity is ~6M to 13M. TOD is not just a boutique or niche idea! open.substack.com/pub/abundanc...

open.substack.com

Transit-Oriented Development is a surprisingly underrated path to ending America’s housing problems

America’s rail systems are still recovering from 2020, and robot cars are coming. Legalize apartments first.

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Reed Schwartz @reed-schwartz.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Great article in @nyc.streetsblog.org on using land value taxes to fund the IBX. Check out the full report @aarmlovi.bsky.social and I wrote on the value capture mechanism and how much it could raise ($1-3+ billion) here as well: www.niskanencenter.org/new-york-sta...

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

If a hot person sends you this meme does that mean they like you or

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Sacramento is of course doing a great job with local upzonings. But many other cities struggle to implement overly complex state housing laws! SB79's good state-authored default zoning, by contrast, means Sacramento need not do much more than update their web portal to accept SB79 applications

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Sacramento is also *the* poster child for the power of direct state zoning: The city simply accepted the state-authored SB79 code! No huge planning staff time, little implementation capacity needed. One of way to solve the local implementation capacity problem is to just *write the code for them*

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Michael Andersen @andersem.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

It's unusual for me to find a politician that's more YIMBY than I am, but Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek's administration is proposing to essentially replace local zoning on most parcels in the state with the last 4 pages of this document www.oregon.gov/lcd/LAR/Docu...

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

The cycle is completing as foretold

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M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

There was a planning panic over retail banks taking up urban storefronts in the 2010s. Cities started banning them, and Capital One responded by putting cafés in their locations, beginning in Boston in 2014. I learned this from @aarmlovi.bsky.social

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Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 04/06/2026

How much housing is located near the nation's transit? 45% of units are located within a 1/2 mile of bus or rail. But only 10% is near frequent service... and 6% is near a rail station. Our new data tool @urbaninstitute.bsky.social allows you to investigate in detail! www.urban.org/data-tools/h...

Urban Institute's Tracking Transit-Oriented Housing Development tool: https://www.urban.org/data-tools/housing-development-near-transit-by-state-and-urban-area

Data on the share of housing within a half mile of urban rail transit, by state

Access to bus or rail transit in urban areas in Florida

Changes in housing supply, and demographics for Florida urban areas

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

One part of Single Stair's unbelievably fast success since 2021 is that it re-legalizes everyone's favorite old buildings. New "break-up-the-massing" double loaded buildings so often try to emulate them with fake facade divisions and other visual deception But we can just legalize the real thing

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Adrian Pietrzak @zoningwonk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Was this bill specifically written for @aarmlovi.bsky.social?

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

When I started wearing Uniqlo socks as color accents with Chacos & Tevas with flannels or other "LL Bean Boyfriend" outfits, I got a mix of side-eye & compliments Now I'm a pioneer

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Stephen Jacob Smith @stephenjacobsmith.com · 29/05/2026

E24-24, my proposal to raise the IBC’s single-stair apartment building height limit from three stories to four, has passed the final membership vote, and will now officially make it into the 2027 IBC 🎉

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

I am suddenly struck by the conviction that a contemporary dance mix of this song would absolutely rip We are overdue for a Hot 90s Summer youtu.be/4QwZi9-7i5s?...

youtu.be

I Want You

YouTube video by Savage Garden - Topic

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Reed Schwartz @reed-schwartz.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

The LVT was authorized under Cuomo, but it's never been used. Very few people wrote about it before @aarmlovi.bsky.social's article for @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social, with one exception: Then-Assemblymember @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social praised value capture and § 119-r in a Jacobin interview in 2022:

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Reed Schwartz @reed-schwartz.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

New York State just authorized a land value tax that could generate billions of dollars for new transit. For the @niskanencenter.bsky.social, @aarmlovi.bsky.social and I wrote about how the renewal of § 119-r in the FY27 budget could unlock a virtuous cycle of infrastructure delivery in NYC.

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

He hasn't but there's no question he would favor Nithya Raman. She has the YIMBY support and the prog support

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

There are two FDNY chiefs in trouble for this as we speak my friend 😂 Give it a Google, one convicted, the other indicted waiting conviction last I checked

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Mayor Mamdani's housing plan is live! There's big sweeping YIMBY stuff: -Aggressive TOD upzoning -Major permitting reform -Rescuing & transforming NYCHA They're also looking at finer details, like fixing the FDNY inspections that so often delay CofO issuance (& invite petty corruption)

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

There's a workable BTR fix, is the main feature!

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

New movement & negotiations on the federal housing bill this afternoon... x.com/i/status/205...

x.com

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

What an excellent editorial building on the academic urban economics literature to translate for the general public. Kudos @maragay.bsky.social & the whole NYT board

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Not yet a *deal* on federal housing bill, but a bipartisan House response to the Senate version! It includes fixes to the Build To Rent ban and avoids eliminating key bipartisan provisions like the Build Now Act We will see what the Senate response is but it's a provisional sign ROAD is back!

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Tokyo further heightens the contradictions of the profit-focused version of the Homevoter Hypothesis: In the highest-demand parts of the US, the homevoters prioritizing "Boomer suburb vibes" are not just hurting renters, they're costing *themselves* billions of dollars of land value

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Tokyo shows structures can be affordable if you stack enough of them on pricey land. It also shows that YIMBYism will not crash land markets or impoverish land-rich homeowners in attractive areas

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

New AGF blog: Tokyo is the world's most affordable megacity--and they're still permitting homes at many times the pace of NYC, London, Paris Yet land prices are still very high! A 1-acre suburban home in Chiyoda would cost over $100M before you nail the first board open.substack.com/pub/abundanc...

open.substack.com

Tokyo land is still >$85 million an acre

What will happen to the highest-priced metro housing markets after YIMBYs achieve realistic housing abundance?

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

New housing episode with Jamie Rubin! This headline is more negative than the content--we talk about everything the mayor's extremely talented housing team is doing right, too Click for the doombait, stay for the optimism 👇 www.vitalcitynyc.org/alex-armlovi...

vitalcitynyc.org

The Cost of Freezing the Rent

The limits and distortions of Mamdani’s core housing cost control strategy

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Protect Bridgeport Bicyclists @stevevance.net · 19/04/2026

A lesser known part of the BUILD plan in Illinois is to stop requiring parking for smaller and medium size homes (regardless of transit proximity), adaptive reuse into housing, and ground floor businesses in mixed use developments Read Jonathan’s 🧵 about why doing that matter so much

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

┳┻| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| _ ┻┳| •.•) (Yonah is back) ┳┻|⊂ﾉ ┻┳|

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Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 17/04/2026

This research provides concrete evidence that, as @aarmlovi.bsky.social has argued, large-scale upzonings—enabling very substantial density in areas with high demand—can indeed attract very large amounts of new housing, beyond what we would expect otherwise.

abundanceandgrowth.org

Zoned Capacity Is Like an Artificial Oil Deposit

Why cities can claim they have room for thousands of new homes on paper and still not build them

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Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 17/04/2026

When NYC rezoned Brooklyn's Gowanus neighborhood to allow high-density residential uses along a cleaned-out canal, it hoped to attract thousands of new housing units. That's exactly what it got, new research comparing upzoned areas to similar, non-upzoned areas shows: www.urban.org/research/pub...

New residential buildings in Gowanus. Source: https://www.crainsnewyork.com/real-estate/boom-times-continue-major-new-gowanus-projects/

Upzonings in New York City produced substantial increases in housing supply. Source: https://www.urban.org/research/publication/how-big-upzonings-affect-housing-supply

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Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 15/04/2026

How do upzonings impact housing supply? In brand-new research published today @urbaninstitute.bsky.social, we show that big upzonings in New York City & Philadelphia had large, statistically significant effects on supply & permitting with several years of reforms. www.urban.org/research/pub...

Neighborhood scale upzonings increased housing production in many NYC neighborhoods

Upzoned block faces saw significant increases in housing unit permits in Philadelphia

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Alex Armlovich @aarmlovi.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I'm less than a quarter Hungarian but when you do the haircut...

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