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Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins will face off in a town hall style debate on Thursday night at 7pm ET. The debate will air on Gray Media stations and their online platforms.

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Michigan Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers will face off in their first debate this Thursday night at 7pm ET. The debate will air on WOOD-TV and its online platforms, as well as nationally on NewsNation.

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Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson will face off in another debate on Thursday night at 8pm ET. The debate will air on WMTW and its online platforms.

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Our forecast now gives Adam Hamilton a better shot at flipping Kansas than Sen. Dan Sullivan has at holding Alaska.

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President Trump attacks Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Truth Social, repeatedly calling him “Mohammed.” Meanwhile, El-Sayed’s chances in our forecast have climbed from 59% on Aug 15 to 74% today. We currently project a 4-point victory.

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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has endorsed Amanda Janoo (D) against GOP Gov. Phil Scott, potentially signaling he sees a competitive race against a once-safe incumbent. Sanders declined to endorse Scott’s Democratic opponents in 2022 and 2024.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/10/2026

NEWS — Governors Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Wes Moore (D-MD) both leave the door open to 2028 presidential runs, declining to commit to serving full terms if re-elected during debates with their Republican opponents.

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10/7 Forecast Update Democrats hit another all-time high in our U.S. Senate model, thanks to generally strong race polls from YouGov released yesterday. 🔵 U.S. Senate: 62.0% (+2.2% vs. last week) 🔵 U.S. House: 85.2% (-1.0% vs. last week)

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/10/2026

Michigan Senator 🚗 As of Oct. 7, 2026 Total mail votes: 248,621 (+125,055) 5.6% of projected final turnout. Estimated share of cast votes: 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed: 60.6–69.1% 🔴 Mike Rogers: 28.4–36.9% Mail votes are usually blue. VoteHub currently rates the race as Lean D.

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Virginia U.S. Senate 🧀 As of Oct. 6, 2026 Total cast votes: 378,498 (+36,851) 12.0% of projected final turnout. Estimated share of cast votes: 🔵 Mark Warner: 62.8–72.4% 🔴 Bert Mizusawa: 27.3–36.9% Early votes are usually bluer. VoteHub currently rates the race as Solid D.

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Wisconsin Governor 🧀 As of Oct. 6, 2026 Total cast votes: 76,371 3.1% of projected final turnout. Estimated share of cast votes: 🔵 David Crowley: 64.3–75.8% 🔴 Tom Tiffany: 24.2–35.7% Mail votes are usually blue. VoteHub currently rates the race as Lean D.

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VoteHub’s 2026 midterm forecast has Jon Ossoff winning 36% of Georgia’s White vote. We estimate Barack Obama won just 20% in 2012. That movement is a major reason VoteHub currently rates Georgia’s Senate race Solid D.

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Michigan U.S. Senate 🚗 As of Oct. 5, 2026 Total early votes: 123,575 (+123,575) 2.8% of projected final turnout. Estimated share of cast votes: 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed: 62.7–70.9% 🔴 Mike Rogers: 26.6–34.8% Mail votes are usually blue. VoteHub currently rates the race as Lean D.

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RACE RATING CHANGE: North Carolina Senate Likely D → Solid D Roy Cooper currently has an 95% chance of winning in our model. His projected margin is 9.6 points.

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RACE RATING CHANGE: Texas Senate Tilt D → Lean D James Talarico currently has an 65% chance of winning. Our model puts his projected margin at 2.4 points, smaller than an average polling error.

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Florida U.S. Senate ☀️ As of Oct. 5, 2026 Total early votes: 141,372 (+48,533) 2.0% of projected final turnout. Estimated current vote share: 🔵 Angie Nixon: 53.9–65.0% 🔴 Ashley Moody: 34.3–45.4% VoteHub currently rates the race as Likely R.

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Sen. Raphael Warnock is hitting four early 2028 Democratic primary states in a midterm campaign swing as presidential speculation grows. He’ll campaign in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan, along with Mississippi, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, per @politico.com.

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RACE RATING CHANGE: Iowa Governor Lean D → Likely D Rob Sand currently has an 81% chance of winning. Our model puts his projected margin at more than 7 points.

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Democrats continue to consolidate their advantage in our House forecast and are now favored in 232 districts. 🔵 U.S. House: 86.4% (+0.8% vs. last week) That’s up from a low of 69.9% earlier this year when Republicans held the upper hand in redistricting.

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NEW — As Florida’s governor race tightens, Byron Donalds has stripped prominent Trump references from his campaign website while highlighting support from Gov. Ron DeSantis, per @wsj.com.

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The generic ballot average keeps moving left, closing in on D+9 after standing at D+4.9 on July 20. That would put the national environment to the left of 2018.

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Corrected version of our graphic:

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South Dakota U.S. Senate Our polls+fundamentals model (pictured below) moved from to Solid R → Likely R. Our forecasted margin is R+14.3 in our Complete model and R+12.1 in our Legacy model.

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Our model projects South Padre Island, which backed Trump by 20+ points in 2024, to come within single digits in this year’s Senate race. The resort town is 64% white and 30% Hispanic. We expect white voters to shift left less, keeping its swing below Texas overall.

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Polls are now closed in South Padre Island, Texas, where Rita Hernandez and Gayle Hood are facing off in a special election to fill the vacant Place 1 seat on the City Council. 597 voters cast ballots before Election Day. Results are expected shortly.

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NEW — Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly says he would consider a mid-decade congressional redraw if elected, arguing Democrats could “claw back four or six congressional seats,” per @politico.com.

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Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) says he will try to block NY-13 Democratic nominee and democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier from taking her seat in Congress over a deleted 2019 post saying she used an American flag as a napkin, per @nypost.com.

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The Kansas Senate race has narrowed rapidly, moving from Solid R to Lean R in our forecast since July. Adam Hamilton (D) now leads by 0.1 points in our polling average. The shift comes as the Senate GOP’s top super PAC moved nearly eight figures into Kansas from North Carolina.

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10/3 Forecast Update Democrats gained in our U.S. Senate model, thanks to generally strong race polls from New York Times/Siena released this morning. 🔵 U.S. Senate: 61.0% (+2.1% vs. yesterday) 🔵 U.S. House: 86.0% (+0.4% vs. yesterday)

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NEW — Senate Republicans’ top super PAC has launched its first TV ad in Kansas, calling Adam Hamilton “two-faced” by blending his face with Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, and AOC, while saying he is anti-white, pro-amnesty, and supportive of trans women in women’s sports.

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Rob Sand has led every poll of the Iowa governor’s race this year, with the three most recent showing him ahead by 12, 9, and 11 points. VoteHub rates the race Lean D, on the verge of Likely D as Sand’s win probability approaches 80%.

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There were 43,714 jobs located in Clark County in Q1 2026, according to BLS data. Our forecast projects Clark County to shift 15 points toward Democrats from 2024 in the Senate race.

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