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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Badenoch's own seat is safer than in 2024 Badenoch won North West Essex in 2024 with a majority of 2,610 votes over Labour, 4.8 points. The MRP puts her on 32%, ahead of Labour on 24.5% and Reform UK on 22%, a lead of 7.5 points and a 97% probability of holding the seat.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The Survation x 38 Degrees MRP, with fieldwork from the 20th of August to the 4th of September, projects the Conservatives to win 85 seats on 19.7% of the vote, down from the 121 they won in 2024.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

When Badenoch became leader, 78% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would do so again. By last winter that had fallen to 64%, with 30% saying they would vote Reform UK. Averaged across our polls since mid-August, it has recovered to 69%, with 23% going to Reform.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

At the same time, in our poll of the 22nd and 23rd of September, 42% say Kemi Badenoch is doing well as leader of the Conservative Party and 33% say she is not, a net score of +9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Is Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives? The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September In all of our polls since June 2025, they have been between 18% and 21%.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

How did Andy Burnham's conference speech land with the public, and what did they make of the triple lock announcement? Last week @damiansurvation.bsky.social took @andrewmarr.bsky.social through our snap poll on @lbc.co.uk.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

GET THE DATA Survation interviewed 1,548 UK adults aged 18+ on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork: evening of 29 September 2026. Data tables can be downloaded here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

cdn.survation.com

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is the highest vote share we have recorded for Labour since December 2024 and up 10 points from its lowest ever share in February 2026.

Time series chart of Survation’s voting intention polling since the 2024 general election

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 29% (+2) RFM 23% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 9% (-2) GRN 9% (+2) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 1% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 29 September 2026. Changes vs 23/09/2026

Voting intention bar chart showing Labour at 29 percent and Reform UK on 23

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

GET THE DATA Read the full analysis: survation.com/where-will-t... Survation interviewed 1,548 UK adults aged 18+ on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork: evening of 29 September 2026. Data tables: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u... 9/9

cdn.survation.com

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Support outnumbers opposition in every age group, including those most affected: -> 55-64: 61% support, 16% oppose -> 65+: 55% support, 27% oppose 8/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

With the Triple Lock reform set out accurately and the savings hypothecated to a National Care Service, a clear majority back it: 64% support it and 15% oppose: net +49. 7/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

What changes? Pensions still rise by at least 2.5% or CPI inflation, whichever is higher, and keep pace with earnings over time. What goes is the "ratchet" that lets pensions rise faster than wages. The government says the savings will go to pay towards the new National Care Service. 6/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Instant reactions were positive from almost 7 in 10 respondents (69%), compared to 13% who had a negative response, a NET score of +56. 5/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In his speech, the Prime Minister talked about the two things in relation to each other. We showed respondents two excerpts as the main explanatory clips by the BBC yesterday, one on the National Care Service plans and one on the pensions lock adjustment. 4/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The most significant announcements in the speech among those aware of it were the changes to the Triple Lock (mentioned by 50%) and plans for the National Care Service (mentioned by 22%). Read more: www.survation.com/where-will-t... 3/9

survation.com

Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? | Survation

Survation conducted an instant reaction poll of 1,548 UK adults yesterday evening to gauge the public’s reaction to Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech at the...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Of the 55% of the public who had seen or heard something about the speech, 55% have a positive impression vs. 23% negative 2/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? Initial reactions to the PM’s speech in a poll of 1,548 adults in the UK interviewed in the hours after the speech on 29 September on behalf of Mandate Research 🧵1/9

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Reposted by Survation.

LabourList @labourlist.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

⏰️ Starting now at Revolution! 🌹 What can Labour learn from its members? LabourList, @survation.bsky.social and @babelfishnews.bsky.social are launching their latest polling of Labour Party members. Hear the exclusive findings first-hand, with @lucympowell.bsky.social and @dalevince.com🌟

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Reposted by Survation.

Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

If you are headed to the Labour Party Conference and would like to catch up, or just want to be briefed on our pre conference research, go here for details: eepurl.com/F2ohRItFCX

eepurl.com

Latest Data Briefing: MRP, tactical voting and Labour Conference

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Reposted by Survation.

Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Who’s in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility. Survation analyst @pjstock.bsky.social rolls through the changed electoral reality and what that means for looking past the “raw” MRP numbers: www.survation.com/whos-in-seco...

survation.com

Who's in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility: | Survation

In 2024, most top two contests were Labour vs Conservatives – now it’s Labour vs Reform In 2024, almost half of all seats were Labour–Conservative...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Immigration is the biggest source of disunity: the only issue where Reform is more trusted than Labour. Labour holds the issue that unites the country; Reform the one that divides it. Read the full analysis by @vlazarov.bsky.social here: www.survation.com/britain-vote...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Progressive Majority now makes up nine in ten Labour voters, but it isn't one bloc. What's missing is hope, not grievance. Majorities in every segment say politicians serve the super-rich, but: 94% of Trusting Optimists say their vote matters 27% of Struggling Sceptics do 5/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

On the Cost of Living, Labour is ahead, but narrowly. It leads Reform on 15 of 16 policy areas, including the cost of living and the NHS. Yet a fifth to a quarter of people name no party at all on every issue: less a verdict against Labour than a public waiting to be convinced. 4/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

What actually matters is not in dispute. Bills coming down is what would most increase confidence in the government for: Labour voters: 65% Conservative voters: 61% Reform voters: 60% On an issue like this, the contest is over who is trusted to deliver. 3/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Change delayed? Just after the 2024 election, no policy area had a majority expecting things to improve. Two months into Andy Burnham's premiership, optimism has recovered to level with pessimism. But 70% want a bold government, and only 28% say his has been bolder. 2/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

NEW: Britain voted for change. Two years on, Labour is being judged on it. Our poll and MRP for @38degrees.bsky.social finds a country that has stopped feeling better off: Better off than a year ago: 24% → 12% About the same: 29% → 43% Worse off: 43% → 40% Read more: tinyurl.com/3h6249t4 1/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Get the data: Survation conducted an online poll of 2043 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted on between 9 - 10th September 2026 Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

cdn.survation.com

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Burnham's popularity continues, with a +15 NET score in Like/Dislike, with Badenoch second

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

At +5pp, this is Labour's largest lead since Andy Burnham became PM, and the first Labour lead of his premiership to be outside the margin of error.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 28% (+1) RFM 23% (-1) CON 21% (+2) LD 10% (+1) GRN 8% (-2) SNP 2% (=) PC 2% (+1) RB 2% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 9-10 September 2026. Changes vs 28/08/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Get the data: Survation conducted an online poll of 2,149 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 26th-28th August 2026. Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

At 27%, this is the highest Labour score we've recorded yet under Andy Burnham. It's also the highest result for Labour since May 2025, when Labour were at 28%

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 27% (+1) RFM 24% (-2) CON 19% (+1) GRN 10% (=) LD 9% (-1) RB 3% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) PC 1% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 26-28 August 2026. Changes vs 18/08/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Get the data: Survation conducted an online poll of 2004 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 10-13 August 2026. Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Confidence in the UK government ability to address issues has decreased since the July poll. Climate Change has a NET Score of -28, compared to -17 previously Immigration is at NET -47, compared to -30 previously

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

46% of respondents believe Andy Burnham is doing a good job as leader of the Labour party

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Reform retake the lead from Labour this week, rising 2 points since the last poll at the end of July. Labour down 1pt, while the Conservatives are down 2pts

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 26% (+2) LAB 25% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 11% (+1) GRN 9% (-1) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (+1) F/w 10-13 August 2026. Changes vs 26/07/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

See our original Clacton poll here -https://www.survation.com/clacton-by-election-poll-what-do-voters-say-the-election-is-about/

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

See the full results and data here:https://www.survation.com/clacton-unprompted-what-effect-does-the-longest-ballot-ever-have-on-polling/

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

We returned to Clacton this week to sample 100 more respondents, and conducted an experiment on not prompting. Respondents told us, in their own words, who they would vote for. The result - Count Binface's support remained steady at the ~20% level, with Farage showing a slight increase.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Get the data: Survation conducted an online poll of 1012 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 25th - 27th July 2026 Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Labour have taken the lead in the Westminster voting intention for the first time since May 2025, and with their highest vote share in over a year. The Conservatives are up +2 on last week, having remained steady at around 20-21% for most of this year.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 26% (+1) RFM 24% (-2) CON 21% (+2) GRN 10% (+2) LD 10% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (+1) PC 2% (=) OTH 3% (-3) F/w 25-27 July 2026. Changes vs 24/07/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Get the data: Survation conducted an online poll of 2057 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 10th - 14th July 2026 Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

cdn.survation.com

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Confidence in Keir Starmer's ability to address the issues ends with negative scores across all areas.

Bar charts showing positive and negative ratings of Keir Starmer's handling of issues

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