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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

And regardless of how people voted - they expected Labour to win 57% of those who intended to vote Green still expected Labour to win

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Voters also believed that Burnham is doing a better job than Starmer was, with a net +36%

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

While Zack Polanski was not unpopular, he was 13pp behind Andy Burnham, but slightly ahead of Sagal Abdi-Wali Keir Starmer was at -19 favourability in his old seat

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Housing was a top issue for voters, followed by Cost of Living, then Crime and Safety

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Confidence in the government's ability to handle the issues of the economy, NHS and national security have improved since the last poll.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Andy Burnham remains the most liked party leader, at +19 this week, compared to +16 last time.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Following conference season, this is Labour's highest result since December 2024, with the last 5 polls having had them between 27%-30%.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 30% (+1) RFM 24% (+1) CON 19% (=) LD 9% (=) GRN 8% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) RB 2% (-1) PC 2% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Badenoch's own seat is safer than in 2024 Badenoch won North West Essex in 2024 with a majority of 2,610 votes over Labour, 4.8 points. The MRP puts her on 32%, ahead of Labour on 24.5% and Reform UK on 22%, a lead of 7.5 points and a 97% probability of holding the seat.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The Survation x 38 Degrees MRP, with fieldwork from the 20th of August to the 4th of September, projects the Conservatives to win 85 seats on 19.7% of the vote, down from the 121 they won in 2024.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

When Badenoch became leader, 78% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would do so again. By last winter that had fallen to 64%, with 30% saying they would vote Reform UK. Averaged across our polls since mid-August, it has recovered to 69%, with 23% going to Reform.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

At the same time, in our poll of the 22nd and 23rd of September, 42% say Kemi Badenoch is doing well as leader of the Conservative Party and 33% say she is not, a net score of +9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Is Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives? The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September In all of our polls since June 2025, they have been between 18% and 21%.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

How did Andy Burnham's conference speech land with the public, and what did they make of the triple lock announcement? Last week @damiansurvation.bsky.social took @andrewmarr.bsky.social through our snap poll on @lbc.co.uk.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is the highest vote share we have recorded for Labour since December 2024 and up 10 points from its lowest ever share in February 2026.

Time series chart of Survation’s voting intention polling since the 2024 general election

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 29% (+2) RFM 23% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 9% (-2) GRN 9% (+2) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 1% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 29 September 2026. Changes vs 23/09/2026

Voting intention bar chart showing Labour at 29 percent and Reform UK on 23

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Support outnumbers opposition in every age group, including those most affected: -> 55-64: 61% support, 16% oppose -> 65+: 55% support, 27% oppose 8/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Instant reactions were positive from almost 7 in 10 respondents (69%), compared to 13% who had a negative response, a NET score of +56. 5/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Of the 55% of the public who had seen or heard something about the speech, 55% have a positive impression vs. 23% negative 2/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Immigration is the biggest source of disunity: the only issue where Reform is more trusted than Labour. Labour holds the issue that unites the country; Reform the one that divides it. Read the full analysis by @vlazarov.bsky.social here: www.survation.com/britain-vote...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Progressive Majority now makes up nine in ten Labour voters, but it isn't one bloc. What's missing is hope, not grievance. Majorities in every segment say politicians serve the super-rich, but: 94% of Trusting Optimists say their vote matters 27% of Struggling Sceptics do 5/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

On the Cost of Living, Labour is ahead, but narrowly. It leads Reform on 15 of 16 policy areas, including the cost of living and the NHS. Yet a fifth to a quarter of people name no party at all on every issue: less a verdict against Labour than a public waiting to be convinced. 4/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

What actually matters is not in dispute. Bills coming down is what would most increase confidence in the government for: Labour voters: 65% Conservative voters: 61% Reform voters: 60% On an issue like this, the contest is over who is trusted to deliver. 3/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Change delayed? Just after the 2024 election, no policy area had a majority expecting things to improve. Two months into Andy Burnham's premiership, optimism has recovered to level with pessimism. But 70% want a bold government, and only 28% say his has been bolder. 2/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

NEW: Britain voted for change. Two years on, Labour is being judged on it. Our poll and MRP for @38degrees.bsky.social finds a country that has stopped feeling better off: Better off than a year ago: 24% → 12% About the same: 29% → 43% Worse off: 43% → 40% Read more: tinyurl.com/3h6249t4 1/6

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Burnham's popularity continues, with a +15 NET score in Like/Dislike, with Badenoch second

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

At +5pp, this is Labour's largest lead since Andy Burnham became PM, and the first Labour lead of his premiership to be outside the margin of error.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 28% (+1) RFM 23% (-1) CON 21% (+2) LD 10% (+1) GRN 8% (-2) SNP 2% (=) PC 2% (+1) RB 2% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 9-10 September 2026. Changes vs 28/08/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

At 27%, this is the highest Labour score we've recorded yet under Andy Burnham. It's also the highest result for Labour since May 2025, when Labour were at 28%

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 27% (+1) RFM 24% (-2) CON 19% (+1) GRN 10% (=) LD 9% (-1) RB 3% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) PC 1% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 26-28 August 2026. Changes vs 18/08/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Confidence in the UK government ability to address issues has decreased since the July poll. Climate Change has a NET Score of -28, compared to -17 previously Immigration is at NET -47, compared to -30 previously

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

46% of respondents believe Andy Burnham is doing a good job as leader of the Labour party

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Reform retake the lead from Labour this week, rising 2 points since the last poll at the end of July. Labour down 1pt, while the Conservatives are down 2pts

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 26% (+2) LAB 25% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 11% (+1) GRN 9% (-1) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (+1) F/w 10-13 August 2026. Changes vs 26/07/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Labour have taken the lead in the Westminster voting intention for the first time since May 2025, and with their highest vote share in over a year. The Conservatives are up +2 on last week, having remained steady at around 20-21% for most of this year.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 26% (+1) RFM 24% (-2) CON 21% (+2) GRN 10% (+2) LD 10% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (+1) PC 2% (=) OTH 3% (-3) F/w 25-27 July 2026. Changes vs 24/07/2026

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Confidence in Keir Starmer's ability to address the issues ends with negative scores across all areas.

Bar charts showing positive and negative ratings of Keir Starmer's handling of issues

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Kemi Badenoch is the most liked party leader, with 36% liking her, vs 32% who do not. Kemi Badenoch +4 (36% like / 32% dislike) Ed Davey -3 (25% like / 28% dislike) Nigel Farage -18 (31% like / 49% dislike) Zack Polanski -21 (21% like / 42% dislike) Keir Starmer -33 (22% like / 55% dislike)

Bar chart showing party leader's positive and negative scores for the question 'To what extent, if at all, do you like the following party leaders'

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Labour and Reform are now tied at 24% each - Labour's highest polling since 20th November 2025, and Reform's lowest since just after the May 2025 local elections

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 24% (-3) LAB 24% (+5) CON 21% (+1) LD 11% (-1) GRN 11% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

Graphic showing Westminster VI with Labour and Reform both at 24%

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

And the mood? Overwhelmingly negative. Of the words people used to describe Brexit, 82% were negative: "disaster," "mistake," "mess" topped the list. 4/5

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

The 2016 coalitions tell different stories a decade on: 🔵 Remain voters: 83% would still vote Rejoin - barely moved 🔴 Leave voters: 70% would stay out, but 1 in 5 (20%) have switched to Rejoin 2/5

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

The pressure is showing in how pubs operate day to day. In the past 12 months: 89% have had to raise prices 75% have cut staff numbers or hours 62% have adjusted heating or electricity use 55% have delayed or reduced owner/manager pay 3/4

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

Rising costs are forcing many pub landlords to prop up their businesses with their own money. In the past 12 months: 48% have dipped into personal savings 33% have turned to credit cards or loans 7% have remortgaged their home 2/4

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

NEW Survation poll of pub landlords on behalf of @greenpeaceuk.bsky.social as seen in @mirror.co.uk 47% of landlords say they're not confident their pub will survive the next 12 months. Of those, 2 in 3 think they've got less than a year left at current costs. 🍺🧵1/4

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Regardless of whether the SNP fall short of a majority or not, a Pro-independence majority is almost guaranteed. This is in spite of an expected majority of Pro-union votes in both the Constituency and Regional List according to the implied vote shares.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Implied vote share from the MRP suggests the SNP leads the Constituency vote by 20 points, and the Regional List vote by 13 points. Constituency Vote: SNP: 39% LAB: 19% REF: 17% CON: 12% LD: 10% GRN: 2% OTH: 2% Regional List Vote: SNP: 29% LAB: 16% REF: 17% CON: 13% LD: 8% GRN: 15% OTH: 2%

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Projected Seats: SNP: 59 (53-64) Reform: 18 (15-20) Labour: 17 (14-20) Greens: 16 (13-18) Conservatives: 13 (10-15) Lib Dems: 8 (6-10)

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Plaid is strongest among younger voters (40%), those in North Wales (31%), those who speak Welsh fluently (52%), and people expressing a strong Welsh national identity (43%). Meanwhile Reform is strongest among male voters (34%), those aged over 65 (37%), and in Mid and West Wales (34%).

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

The coalition that brought Labour one seat shy of a majority in the 2021 election has broken down massively. Only 44% of their 2021 voters intend to vote for the party again this year, while 22% have moved to Plaid and 21% to Reform.

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