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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 21/09/2026

The US taking a big step towards greater state ownership or control of the economy—a form of socialism—in 2025 is occurring under unified Republican domination of the US government. #PIIECharts

State control of the US economy, or socialism, expanded sharply in 2025 under a Republican White House and Congress

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 04/09/2026

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 02/09/2026

PIIE is (finally) on Instagram! Follow us petersoninstitute for videos, explainers, & more.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 01/09/2026

we were close but had to keep poasting 😔🤙 the research never stops

@piie.com
9.9k followers 55 following 1k posts

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 26/08/2026

Read the China Squeeze paper here: www.piie.com/publications...

PIIE CHARTS
China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 18/08/2026

pssst hey can y'all help us get 10k followers before 1k posts so my economist bosses see a good post:follower ratio thanks

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 11/08/2026

Denmark's economic growth has generally surpassed US growth since before COVID. Since 2020, Denmark has run a cumulative general government fiscal surplus of 18.6% of GDP (positive net lending), while the US has run a general government deficit of 53.8% of GDP. #PIIECharts

Trump wants to make Greenland rich, but Denmark outperforms the US economically

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 04/08/2026

Given unpredictable tariff policy shifts, US corporate executives could be expected to discuss policy changes in their quarterly earnings calls. Analysis shows corporate mentions of Trump's tariffs in earnings calls spiked in spring 2025. Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Mentions of "tariffs" in US company executives’ earnings calls spiked in spring 2025

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 04/08/2026

NEW: US tariffs have failed to significantly reduce US dependence on Chinese goods & services. 💡China's share of bilateral US imports fell by 7 percentage points from 2017-24 while China's share of value-added in US imports fell just 2 percentage points. Read more here: www.piie.com/publications...

Years of US tariffs on China have largely failed to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers
After Trump's first trade war began in July 2018, Chinese inputs were still getting into the US even as US-China trade dropped

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 30/07/2026

The private sector's share of China's 100 largest listed companies by market value continued to grow in 2026, reaching 41% by mid-year. #PIIECharts Notably, of those 100 companies, 27 had never appeared on the list before. Learn more here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

China’s private sector keeps expanding in 2026, while more tech manufacturers climb into the top ranks

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 21/07/2026

For reference, here's the text of the Section:

The language of section 338 is straightforward and without qualifications, other than that discrimination, compared to treatment given to the products of other countries, must be found:
“The President when he finds that the public interest will be served shall by proclamation specify and declare new or additional duties. . .upon . . . products of any foreign country whenever he shall find as a fact that such country . . . discriminates in fact against the commerce of the United States, directly or indirectly, . . . in such manner as to place the commerce of the United States at a disadvantage compared with the commerce of any foreign country.”

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 01/07/2026

The Trump admin has declined to renew the USMCA. It remains in force, but should the agreement end, states face varying risk of losses. 9/10 states with the highest share of exports to Canada & Mexico as a share of the state's total exports voted for Trump in 2024. #PIIECharts

Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 30/06/2026

Since the start of the 21st century, China's value-added export share has grown much larger than its labor-force share, suggesting that China is exporting goods that could otherwise be made in poorer economies where increased manufacturing could support tens of millions of jobs. #PIIECharts

China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 23/06/2026

US states are at different levels of economic risk if the USMCA is terminated & Canada & Mexico impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports. 9/10 states with the highest share of exports to Canada & Mexico as a share of the state's total exports voted for Trump in 2024. #PIIECharts

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 12/06/2026

The Trump admin has made deals called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) with trading partners to adjust tariffs for some concessions. But the ARTs have mechanisms the US may use to control supply chains beyond its borders—& depth & stringency of commitments vary. #PIIECharts

US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 08/06/2026

NEW: If oil prices stay around $120/barrel + sharp rises in LNG, refined petroleum, & fertilizer prices for a year, global growth would slow, with economic effects spread unevenly. Emerging economies would be hit harder than advanced economies. #PIIECharts

Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 19/05/2026

📖Pre-order the book: simonandschuster.com/books/How-to... 📺Join us for the book launch: piie.com/events/2026/...

How to Win a Trade War
An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy
By Soumaya Keynes and Chad P Bown

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 11/05/2026

NEW: The pattern of declining overdose deaths, after peaking during the Biden administration, calls into question the role of tariffs imposed on China for its role in fentanyl trade by the current Trump administration, Marcus Noland writes. Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Fentanyl deaths started declining before Trump's tariffs in second term, as drug purity was worsening
a. Number of overdose deaths, in thousands, by administration, 2019–25

b. Purity index for fentanyl powder and pills, 2019–24 (January 2019 = 100)

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 17/04/2026

US population growth slowed in 2025, particularly in urban counties, because immigration fell. Read more by @jedkolko.bsky.social: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Urban counties returned to slow growth in 2025

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 10/04/2026

The global economic expansion is set to continue, but the range of possible outcomes has widened. Underlying forces—especially the AI-driven investment cycle—continue to support growth, but the Iran war has introduced new risks. #PIIECharts

War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 09/04/2026

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard discusses this & more at our April 15 event on the realities of economic security: www.piie.com/events/2026/...

The realities of economic security

PIIE spring meetings

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 06/04/2026

🌸IT'S SPRING MEETINGS TIME!🌸 We kick things off with our semiannual Global Economic Prospects event on April 9, then join us April 14-17 for high-level panels & discussions on the euro, AI, trade, & more. Find all event info & register to watch here: www.piie.com/events/sprin...

PIIE spring meetings
Coming up in April 2026 | Watch at piie.com/events
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Thursday, April 9 | 1PM
Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026
Karen Dynan (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
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Tuesday, April 14 | 11AM
PIIE Insider LIVE: Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and optimism for Europe’s future
Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE)
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Wednesday, April 15 | 9AM
Trade 360 degrees: Trade Winds LIVE from DC!
Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (Special Advisor, Indonesia), Adam S. Posen (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Cecilia Malmström (PIIE)
1PM
Central banking for open economies in a changed world
Anna Breman (Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand), José Luis Escrivá (Governor, Bank of Spain), Chang Yong Rhee (Governor, Bank of Korea), Martin Schlegel (Chairman of the Government Board, Swiss National Bank), Patrick Honohan (PIIE)
3PM
The realities of economic security
Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE)
Thursday, April 16 | 9AM
The future economic architecture of the eurozone
Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Carlos Cuerpo (First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Spain), Isbel Schnabel (Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank), Ángel Ubide (Citadel), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
1PM
AI and the imminent transformation of work: New dimensions and analyses
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Anton Korinek (PIIE), Fabien Curto Millet (Google), Caroline Atkinson (RockCreek)
3PM
International imbalances again? Still? Forever?
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Hélène Rey (London Business School), Alan Taylor (Bank of England), Isabel Vansteenkist (European Central Bank), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE)
Friday, April 17 | 9AM
Decentering the dollar: A conversation
Klass Knot (PIIE, Former Governor, De Nederlandsche Bank; Former Chair, Financial Stability Board), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 30/03/2026

Q: Can tariffs replace income taxes? A: Absolutely not. Hear it straight from @kclausing.bsky.social:

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 26/03/2026

NOW: @kclausing.bsky.social is speaking at @whitehouse.senate.gov's Environment and Public Works Committee spotlight forum on the many ways climate change is contributing to the affordability crisis. Read her prepared remarks: www.piie.com/commentary/t... Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/oegvS1R...

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 04/03/2026

The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...

The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 03/03/2026

NEW: US exports to China have fallen sharply, largely due to Trump's trade wars, combined with China's economic problems & policies. Without Trump’s trade wars since 2017, US exports to China would have been ~60% higher in 2025. Learn more from @chadpbown.com: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

US exports to China fell after Trump launched his second trade war in 2025

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/02/2026

Subscribe to PIIE Insider to get our reactions to the Supreme Court ruling that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs: piie.com/subscribe

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/02/2026

The "reciprocal" tariff rates penalize countries that use more intermediate inputs from other countries in their exported products. More here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs heavily penalize countries that use more imported inputs

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 17/02/2026

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 06/02/2026

NOW: Conference examining the the world's worst inflation in 40 years—from COVID-19, exploring supply-side disruptions, demand dynamics, fiscal & monetary policy, & more. Watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/worst-infl…

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 30/01/2026

On February 6, we're holding a conference on lessons from COVID-19 inflation. Register to watch: www.piie.com/events/2026/... Read the project overview: www.piie.com/publications...

Conference
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
February 6, 2026
PIIE

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 29/01/2026

Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts

Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/01/2026

The private sector's share of the top 100 listed Chinese companies by market value grew to 40% in the second half of 2025, driven by high-profile technology firms amid China's artificial intelligence boom. #PIIECharts

China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy”

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 24/12/2025

Average US tariffs on China: 47.5% Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9% Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4% Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5% #PIIECharts

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 23/12/2025

Make sure you're subscribed to our flagship newsletter PIIE Insider to receive our latest work, exclusive analysis, & more straight to your inbox: www.piie.com/subscribe

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 15/12/2025

UPDATED: As of September 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $179 billion, contributing just 9.6% of the projected federal budget deficit. Learn more: www.piie.com/research/pii...

Figure 3
Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit?
Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Sep 2025
$178,821,673,016
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025
$1,865,000,000,000
#PIIECharts
Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts
PIIE
Notes: Cumulative tariff revenue is the total of monthly calculated duties estimated by USITC since January 2025.
Source: Congressional Budget Office.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 04/12/2025

Learn more here: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Trump's tariff relief on groceries and food products

$35 saving per US household annually

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 02/12/2025

David Fishman joined Policy for the Planet to discuss with @mdebolle.com how China has used renewables & low-carbon energy to bolster its grid & what the US & other countries can learn from its expansion. Listen wherever you get podcasts.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 01/12/2025

UPDATED: Through August 2025, tariff revenues since January 2025 totaled $149 billion, contributing just 8% of the projected 2025 federal deficit. Learn more from our tariff revenue tracker here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

Figure 3
Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit?
Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Aug 2025
$149,281,378,669
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025
$1,865,000,000,000
#PIIECharts
Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts

Notes: Cumulative tariff revenue is the total of monthly calculated duties estimated by USITC since January 2025.
Source: Congressional Budget Office.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 25/11/2025

The reductions in tariffs on food imports save US households an average of $35 per year. Learn more: www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economi…

Trump's tariff relief for certain food and agricultural products averages $35 per US household

Total annual tariff reduction:
$4.6 billion

Average savings per US household:
$35

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/11/2025

UPDATE: Average US tariffs on China: 47.5% Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9% Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.5% Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Last updated November 10, 2025

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 19/11/2025

Arvind Subramanian & coauthor Devesh Kapur's book "A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India’s Development Odyssey" was featured in @financialtimes.com list of best economics books of 2025! 🎉 Check out the whole list here: www.ft.com/content/c44a...

A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India’s Development Odyssey by Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian (HarperCollins)
In this compelling book, Kapur, a distinguished political scientist, and Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government, analyse India’s modern history. They note that after independence in 1947 India “embarked on four major development transformations: rebuilding the State, forging a nation, developing the economy and reconstructing society . . . Crucially, this was to be undertaken under . . . universal franchise-based democracy.” This was a colossal undertaking. How did it do? My answer would be “far better than it might have and not as well as it could have ”. To work out your answer, read this book.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 17/11/2025

NOVEMBER 20: @chorzempa.bsky.social joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss the US-China AI race—compute power, differences between US & Chinese models, export controls, & more. Subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get podcasts & register to watch live here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

PIIE Insider LIVE
November 20, 11-11:30 AM ET
Register at piie.com/events

The US-China AI race
Featuring Martin Chorzempa
Senior Fellow, PIIE

Hosted by
Anjali V. Bhatt
Communications Manager and Research Fellow, PIIE

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 07/11/2025

"Trade wars screw up other things." Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 06/11/2025

"It sends no real signals of value or use." Senator Rand Paul told us what he thinks about the trade deficit.

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 30/10/2025

Total real US goods imports from the world sharply increased in early 2025, likely due largely to importers frontloading goods before tariffs took effect. By July 2025, as tariffs were enforced, cumulative US real goods imports were ~10% above January-July 2024 level. #PIIECharts

The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico

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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 29/10/2025

As Trump kicked off his trade war this year, some economists predicted a drop in US goods imports. The US did import less from some, notably China, but imported more from others, such as the EU & Mexico, in January-July 2025, compared with the same period last year. #PIIECharts

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