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Reposted by Emily Graham

Adam Terry @adamterryfgf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

We're hiring! @futuregovforum.bsky.social is seeking a new Head of Advocacy & Engagement. We're looking for someone to build networks, spot + secure new opportunities, + advocate for our work to maximise its impact. If that sounds like you, please apply: www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/vacancies/

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Agree scale was missing piece. This was known from start - pilot was never going to deliver at scale needed, but did show a deal was possible & established the principle. Hoping further negotiations with Europe will bear fruit Here's my take - bsky.app/profile/emil...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

At @futuregovforum.bsky.social, we recently published a report on future cooperation between the UK and Europe, ahead of the pilot coming to an end Read in full 👇 www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/ret...

futuregovernanceforum.co.uk

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Top lessons Burnham should take from the pilot to the summit: 1️⃣ Bespoke ‘routes for returns’ agreement is possible & deliverable 2️⃣ Drop '1 for 1' model & focus on fair share - few returns should not equal few arrivals (aim is controlled arrivals not no arrivals) 3️⃣ Make confident case for cooperation

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is hopeful for the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister has been clear that irregular migration will be top of his agenda He's got public permission for this too - our polling shows this, as does @britishfuture.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/brit...

Polling shows strong public support for a ‘routes for returns’ deal with Europe, including:
65% of Labour Progressive Gettables - Voters that Labour lost to other progressive parties but remain open to returning
62% of Labour voters
67% of Labour Right-leaning Gettables - Those voters lost to Labour’s right but who remain open to returning

Polling was conducted online between the 11th and 12th of May 2026 by Convergent Opinion. Convergent interviewed 2369 adults and weighted the sample to be both demographically and politically representative of all Britons. Convergent Opinion is a member of the British Polling Council and can be contacted at: info@convergent-opinion.com

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

As a pilot, media headlines suggesting deal was 'scrapped' due to lack of scale are unfair & misleading The pilot was never going to deliver high numbers, but was to establish the principle & test new approach France would not renew as a bilateral deal & wanted European neighbours to be involved

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

As a pilot, there's plenty that can be learned from this scheme for future delivery 👇

Key lessons for future ‘routes for returns’ delivery
• Take a ‘Test, Learn and Grow’ approach to future delivery,
particularly to understand how to best shift migrant behaviour
and incentives towards regular pathways.
• Invest in awareness-raising of both the opportunity of an
inbound route and likelihood of being returned.
• Establish a cross-sectoral operational working group on the
inbound route with NGOs, UNHCR and French actors to test,
learn and adapt delivery in real-time.
• Establish a dedicated channel for communication within UK
Visas and Immigration (UKVI) for the inbound route.
• Consider a non-detained model in order to overcome limited
detention capacity and scale future returns.
• Build legal processes into the design and timescales to
prevent delays.
• Resolve the issues with identity verification requirements
affecting access to the safe route to the UK for key nationalities.
• Improve the online ‘user journey’ for the asylum seekers
applying from France.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It is also an approach that is pragmatic & principled. 'Routes for returns' deals see the govt offer to share - not shift - responsibility for refugees ⚠️ But this approach only works at scale, something the UK-France deal was never going to achieve as a *pilot*

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Over the last year & bit, 1,500 people were returned to France after crossing Channel & 1,500 were offered a safe route to the UK This combination - routes and returns - is the right one. It not only deters people from irregular journeys, but also diverts by offering an alternative to the smugglers

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It's disappointing that the UK-France 'one-in, one-out' deal will come to an end today, after being extended over the summer Pilot had its issues but it was the right approach - hopeful that govt will seek to build on it as they prioritise cooperation on irregular migration w/ EU later this year 🧵

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Looking forward to today's panel discussion on a migration system that works for Britain with @thefabians.bsky.social 12.45pm at the Bluecoat 👇

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Reposted by Emily Graham

British Future @britishfuture.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

'Can Labour get immigration right?' Join us at Labour Party Conference to discuss, on Tues 29th (10am, ACC) with @oliviabailey.bsky.social @emilyagraham.bsky.social @sundersays.bsky.social Kate Devlin, Whitehall Ed, Independent; + others TBC More details: www.britishfuture.org/event/britis...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

If you’re in Brighton, join us shortly to discuss the future of refugee protection with our fascinating panel 👇 - @maxwilkinson.bsky.social, Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesperson - Vicky Tennant, UNCHR’s Rep to the UK - @angelaafzal.bsky.social, IRC UK - & myself from @futuregovforum.bsky.social

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Reposted by Emily Graham

Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Looking forward to our event on Sunday at Lib Dem conference. Details below - hope to see you there! We'll be marking the 75th anniversary of the Refugee Convention, and exploring how well our international refugee protection system is upholding up in today's connected, unstable world 👇

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

For refugees, route isn't at all accessible in short or long term - too high a bar. But more important question is ofc how legally & politically sustainable it is. Govt won recent legal challenge, but it'll go to appeal

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I'd also add to your list above of what might be complex & take time to work through, family reunion routes for refugees, including Refugee Family Reunion - links to Art. 8 reforms too, the politics of asylum at the moment, potential for legal challenge etc

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Agree. There's a bit of a gap between committee stage starting & concluding due to recess for Conferences

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

British Future also suggests public consent is sturdy enough for now on key qs, eg arrival numbers at a scale necessary for effective 'routes for returns' deal   Similarly our work w @convergent-opinion.bsky.social found public care about numbers, but care about impact more bsky.app/profile/emil...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Overall, it was welcome to see (& I agree with) British Future's analysis that there is opportunity & permission here for govt to seek expanded 'routes for returns' deal Especially useful insights ahead of the current UK-France 'one-in, one-out' arrangement, which is due to expire next month

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

British Future also found cooperation w Europe bridged those wanting more humane system (safe routes, concern about trafficking & deaths) & those willing to try 'anything that works' Echos prev research that suggests a winning approach for Labour must combine progressive values + effective delivery

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Good to see @britishfuture.bsky.social find public support for a UK-EU 'routes and returns' asylum cooperation in their latest report, published today - especially good to see public openness for new approaches, despite frustrations with situation

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Reposted by Emily Graham

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

If you would like to add your voice to tens of thousands of people thanking RNLI volunteers for their work, 38 Degrees have organised this open letter to express public support (at a time when a hateful fringe have been intimidating & abusing RNLI volunteers) act.38degrees.org.uk/act/rnli-tha...

act.38degrees.org.uk

An open letter in support of the volunteers and staff at the RNLI

This is a disgrace. Brave RNLI volunteers being called scum for risking their lives to save others at sea is just plain wrong. So I've signed an open letter of thanks for the RNLI letting them know th...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

We need more of this approach -addressing the demand for people smuggling With the 'one-in, one-out' scheme due to expire in Oct, @bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social & I have proposed scaling it up into a permanent UK-EU migration cooperation framework 👇 www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/ret...

futuregovernanceforum.co.uk

Rethinking Migration 01 - Future Governance Forum

Cutting the number of small boat crossings is crucial to restoring public trust in government. The next Prime Minister will have three years to achieve a significant reduction in irregular Channel cro...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

While enforcement disrupts supply of people smuggling (less boats, higher costs) there is still a demand for services as people try to reach UK That's why UK-France cooperation on routes & returns matters - it addresses the demand and can divert/deter people into safe and legal routes to UK

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

And as Alexandra Hartman & @moritz-marbach.com points out in their essay for @futuregovforum.bsky.social, should look at smuggling as a market w consumers & suppliers Enforcement doesn't always = less smuggling but impacts pricing & services provided www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/the...

In a standard economic demand-supply model, policy interventions increasing external border enforcement (e.g., increasing penalties for smugglers, increasing efforts to detect smugglers, or increasing the costs of procurement) reduce the amount of smuggling. How much this change shapes whether people decide to hire a smuggler depends critically on the elasticity of demand to migrate to the UK. When demand is highly inelastic (meaning consumers are not very sensitive to price changes), interventions that increase costs will raise the price but only lead to minor reductions in the quantity supplied. Migrants demanding smuggling services might also differ in their price sensitivity. Even
when all of them are similar in their price sensitivity, those that step back first are migrant groups with the highest price elasticity, who are likely to be the poorest among all migrants. Increasing external border enforcement and the resulting cost-pressure might also mean that smugglers turn to cheaper inflatable boats, providing just-enough fuel for a pre-planned route and require more migrants to use the same boat. All of these measures could increase the risk for migrants to drown at sea.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The Home Office has targeted small boat supply chains in recent years (e.g. NCA seized over 500 boats or engines in 2025) so it's not surprising that BBC investigation found that smugglers are running low on dinghies www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Channel smuggling gangs resort to 'mega-dinghies' as crackdown limits small boat supply

Once-rival criminal groups are being forced to work together because of a shortage of small boats, a BBC investigation has found.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The 'mega dinghy' phenomenon is not surprising to those working on this issue While more enforcement means less boats, there's still demand for crossings as people try to reach the UK 🧵

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Both good questions - I’m not sure, and while I’d need to re-read the consultation paper, I don’t think it goes into any detail or answers either of those qs… I could imagine some groups being exempted potentially but just speculating at this point

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

While I think this is fair based on the current public debate, it is worth flagging that the HO did consult on the question of whether those with settled status should be eligible for benefits (or if welfare should be reserved for citizens)

As well as considering the responsibilities that are expected of those who seek a permanent life in this country, the consultation also raises the question of what rights are provided as a result. Specifically, it proposes that benefits should not be available to those who have settled status, and asks whether they should instead be reserved for those who have achieved British citizenship.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Correction: should read 40% reduction in arrivals to Europe in first 5 months of 2026

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Useful thread, and good to reflect on progress on key issues like boats/hotels What's not reflected in stats, however, but is of real consequence is the asylum appeals problem - bsky.app/profile/emil...

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Reposted by Emily Graham

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

A very clear exanple of a national media outlet always looking for an UP/spike/high headline (with immigration down, asylum down, boats down, hotels down). Settlement at +5 years is up after 2021-24 migration peak www.thetimes.com/article/7f2a...

thetimes.com

Number of migrants applying to settle in UK at 16-year high

Reforms set to be introduced this autumn by Shabana Mahmood will double the time migrants must wait to obtain indefinite leave to remain

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

I hope the Home Sec's announcement on a new Community Sponsorship scheme offers new energy to the safe routes agenda, including the potential of offering communities across UK greater role in refugee welcome But it looks like it'll be small scale to start

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

It's also disappointing to see that the numbers of refugees arriving via safe and legal routes has continued on a downward trend - 29% decrease across Ukraine, BN(O) & resettlement schemes, and family reunion Only 488 refugees arrived through the UK's flagship Resettlement programme, a 45% decrease

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Refugee Council's @jonfeatonby.bsky.social estimates that as a result of the suspension, around 20K refugee families will have been prevented from applying to reunite bsky.app/profile/jonf...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

While today's stats show continued grants of refugee family reunion cases (12.9k), it's worth remembering that these are cases that were already in the system before family reunion was suspended in Sept '25 Suspension was intended to be temporary until Spring this year, but remains closed

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

It's also worth remembering that the 30m core protection status was part of package of reforms, including a 'Work & Study' status which was intended to recognise refugees who contributed, including access to family reunion (otherwise suspended). But this has not yet been introduced.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Today's stats also show some of Home Sec's other reforms coming into play - 1,708 people granted 30 months protection This shift from 5y grant of protection to 30m is unlikely to result in higher rate of return (see Denmark) but will have significant consequences for integration & ££ to taxpayer

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Home Sec is set to make significant, controversial reforms to asylum appeals process in new bill, but it remains unclear & contested if these will make difference in tackling appeals What is most needed are lower cost but less politically exciting solutions, eg improving quality of decisions

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

As context, most people receiving asylum support (incl in hotels) were waiting on an asylum appeal 40K people awaiting initial decision & 93K receiving asylum support (end of June '26)

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

We know that many rejections at initial decision will be overturned at appeal - @sonial77.bsky.social's investigation of asylum appeals is v helpful for this. It's not enough to clear initial decision backlog if it just feeds appeals backlog - need right decision, first time

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Asylum appeals backlog is bigger problem for govt - in 2025, 80K were waiting on appeal, far more than tribunal has capacity for HMCTS stats give some insights here, but as @jonfeatonby.bsky.social points out, HO hasn't in recent yrs bsky.app/profile/jonf...

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Asylum backlog clearance isn't only good for hotel numbers, so it's good to see sustained progress on the numbers of people receiving an initial decision - 56% fewer people waiting for initial decision But this hides a more complex picture with the asylum appeals backlog

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Even just on basis of numbers, I remain sceptical about the extent to which large sites offer a solution to question of asylum accommodation – 89K people needing accommodation & 1.1K currently in large sites

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

On hotels, the numbers show govt making progress, with a 50% fewer people being accommodated in hotels than at end of June 2025 This looks like it’s mostly down to backlog clearance, rather than a shift to other forms of accommodation, including large sites (eg military bases)

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Might not have guessed that small boat arrivals were falling from press, but there's been plenty of focus on number of people travelling on a single vessel, which has increased again This isn't surprising considering enforcement efforts. But it does increase the risk of an already dangerous journey

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

On small boats, arrivals are down 23% in YE June 2026, with more recent months, showing a more positive trend – 44% fall in first 7m of 2026 One question is to what extent this is down to govt intervention versus wider factors, eg arrivals to Europe (down 50% in first 5m of '26) & weather

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