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Emily Graham

@emilyagraham.bsky.social

836 followers 848 following 227 posts

Migration and asylum policy. Plus often human rights & democratic participation. Trustee of Care Rights UK.

Posts Replies Media

Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is hopeful for the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister has been clear that irregular migration will be top of his agenda He's got public permission for this too - our polling shows this, as does @britishfuture.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/brit...

Polling shows strong public support for a ‘routes for returns’ deal with Europe, including:
65% of Labour Progressive Gettables - Voters that Labour lost to other progressive parties but remain open to returning
62% of Labour voters
67% of Labour Right-leaning Gettables - Those voters lost to Labour’s right but who remain open to returning

Polling was conducted online between the 11th and 12th of May 2026 by Convergent Opinion. Convergent interviewed 2369 adults and weighted the sample to be both demographically and politically representative of all Britons. Convergent Opinion is a member of the British Polling Council and can be contacted at: info@convergent-opinion.com

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

As a pilot, there's plenty that can be learned from this scheme for future delivery 👇

Key lessons for future ‘routes for returns’ delivery
• Take a ‘Test, Learn and Grow’ approach to future delivery,
particularly to understand how to best shift migrant behaviour
and incentives towards regular pathways.
• Invest in awareness-raising of both the opportunity of an
inbound route and likelihood of being returned.
• Establish a cross-sectoral operational working group on the
inbound route with NGOs, UNHCR and French actors to test,
learn and adapt delivery in real-time.
• Establish a dedicated channel for communication within UK
Visas and Immigration (UKVI) for the inbound route.
• Consider a non-detained model in order to overcome limited
detention capacity and scale future returns.
• Build legal processes into the design and timescales to
prevent delays.
• Resolve the issues with identity verification requirements
affecting access to the safe route to the UK for key nationalities.
• Improve the online ‘user journey’ for the asylum seekers
applying from France.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

If you’re in Brighton, join us shortly to discuss the future of refugee protection with our fascinating panel 👇 - @maxwilkinson.bsky.social, Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesperson - Vicky Tennant, UNCHR’s Rep to the UK - @angelaafzal.bsky.social, IRC UK - & myself from @futuregovforum.bsky.social

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

And as Alexandra Hartman & @moritz-marbach.com points out in their essay for @futuregovforum.bsky.social, should look at smuggling as a market w consumers & suppliers Enforcement doesn't always = less smuggling but impacts pricing & services provided www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/the...

In a standard economic demand-supply model, policy interventions increasing external border enforcement (e.g., increasing penalties for smugglers, increasing efforts to detect smugglers, or increasing the costs of procurement) reduce the amount of smuggling. How much this change shapes whether people decide to hire a smuggler depends critically on the elasticity of demand to migrate to the UK. When demand is highly inelastic (meaning consumers are not very sensitive to price changes), interventions that increase costs will raise the price but only lead to minor reductions in the quantity supplied. Migrants demanding smuggling services might also differ in their price sensitivity. Even
when all of them are similar in their price sensitivity, those that step back first are migrant groups with the highest price elasticity, who are likely to be the poorest among all migrants. Increasing external border enforcement and the resulting cost-pressure might also mean that smugglers turn to cheaper inflatable boats, providing just-enough fuel for a pre-planned route and require more migrants to use the same boat. All of these measures could increase the risk for migrants to drown at sea.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

While I think this is fair based on the current public debate, it is worth flagging that the HO did consult on the question of whether those with settled status should be eligible for benefits (or if welfare should be reserved for citizens)

As well as considering the responsibilities that are expected of those who seek a permanent life in this country, the consultation also raises the question of what rights are provided as a result. Specifically, it proposes that benefits should not be available to those who have settled status, and asks whether they should instead be reserved for those who have achieved British citizenship.

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Govt has also proposed penalties which would extend the qualifying period - when these are factored in, some migrants will qualify only after 35 years Headline change is "5 to 10 years", but in reality many will wait much longer under these plans

Flowchart of government's earned settlement proposal

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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

Kicking off our @futuregovforum.bsky.social event, ‘Labour, Populism & the Future of Asylum’, to a packed room at #Lab25

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