Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 5 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers and matchups offer value before kickoff. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

My picks went 3-0 last week as the Vikings, Ravens, and Seahawks all came out victorious. My trap game, the Bears, didn't pan out, but congratulations if you went with Chicago despite my trepidation. In the Splash Sports $21M Survivor World Championship pool, Week 4 was comparatively quiet as heavy public sides managed narrow or outright victories. With four teams gone, two teams on a bye, and pools getting smaller, Week 5 is an interesting one. There are no double-digit...

Evaluating offensive line play through a fantasy football lens can uncover matchup advantages that aren’t always obvious from traditional rankings or defensive fantasy points allowed. Each week, we’ll rank all 32 offensive lines, track the biggest movers, and compare those units against the opposing defense’s adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to identify the quarterback, running back, and D/ST matchups most affected by play in the trenches. For Week 5, the Rams, Bears, and Lions...

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 5, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 15 games this week. Let’s get started!

Week 4 was a mixed bag. I was clearly too confident in a Josh Downs breakout game, as he got out-targeted by both Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin. Woof. Hopefully the 38.2 (!) fantasy points from Tetairoa McMillan made up for it. Let’s give some details on how the breakout models work, but the first article of the year has a more thorough walkthrough.

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It’s not pretty, but it’s part of the game. Note: As of Week 4, we are now using 2026 data only for our signature strength-of-schedule metric, aFPA. The higher the rank in parentheses, the better the matchup. Quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals...

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 5, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 15 games this week. Let’s get started! Start ‘Em...

Week 4 was a mixed bag. I was clearly too confident in a Josh Downs breakout game, as he got out-targeted by both Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin. Woof. Hopefully the 38.2 (!) fantasy points from Tetairoa McMillan made up for it. Let’s give some details on how the breakout models work, but the first article of the year has a more thorough walkthrough. About the Breakout Receiver Model The table below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis, and air yards are on the y-axis. The...

Before we get to this week's targets, let's check last week's report card. Tetairoa McMillan, my favorite buy from last week, went off for 14 catches, 192 yards, and two touchdowns, finishing as the WR1 with 45.2 fantasy points. Saquon Barkley, the headliner of the Sell High section, scored 2.0 points and finished as the RB62, leaving early with an injury. I'll take that pair any week. It wasn't all good news, though. D.J. Moore was the WR87 and also left his game early after reaggravating a...

In this space, the weekly targets will range from individual players and positional groups to entire defensive units. IDP leagues are like snowflakes, so if you have specific questions, jump into our subscriber Discord, find the IDP channel, and tag me with any questions you have. Some of you play in leagues where all of these players are already owned, and some of you play in IDP leagues where only 3-4 players are rostered on each team, so the players listed below might not even be on your...

Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings Pat Mayo and Ian Hartitz break down the comprehensive Week 5 fantasy football rankings, tier-by-tier analysis, and crucial waiver wire/streaming targets. They discuss running back workloads (featuring insights on Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson, Will Shipley, and Bucky Irving), wide receiver injury updates (including Malik Nabers and D.J. Moore), and the quarterback landscape (evaluating Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, and the top pickup of the week,...

Four weeks into the season, we're starting to get a much clearer picture of which early-season usage changes actually mean something. That makes the stash process a little easier. We're still looking for players whose roles could expand before fantasy managers fully catch on, but injuries are also creating more immediate openings. Some of this week's candidates could become usable almost immediately, while others are still very much "put them on the bench and see what happens" types....

A full month of football is in the books, so our matchup data is starting to look much more useful than it did when we pieced together Week 1 recommendations with last year's leftovers. 4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) now has four weeks of 2026 results baked in. That's still not enough for matchup data to outweigh everything else, so routes and target-earning will keep driving these decisions, but we can put a little more confidence behind the defensive side of the...

We're back for Week 5 of the streaming defense column here at 4for4, armed with more context and data. The goal, as always, is to identify the top fantasy defenses available on most waiver wires that you can pick up and play this weekend. For reference, we'll be using 50% Yahoo rostership as our benchmark — anything higher will technically be cheating (though it'll probably happen once or twice). Also, the teams will be roughly ordered as I'd rank them for the week, but you can pick and...

Whether you’re into having kickers as part of the fantasy football landscape or are anti-kicker but are here because your league requires you to roster one, 4for4 remains kicker-friendly. I’m here to provide you with the best information possible to find success from week to week. We're without Harrison Butker and Ryan Fitzgerald this week, as both teams will be watching from elsewhere. More Week 5 Streamers: QB | TE | D/ST In order to provide advice you can actually implement,...

We're back for Week 5 of the streaming defense column here at 4for4, armed with more context and data. The goal, as always, is to identify the top fantasy defenses available on most waiver wires that you can pick up and play this weekend. For reference, we'll be using 50% Yahoo rostership as our benchmark — anything higher will technically be cheating (though it'll probably happen once or twice). Also, the teams will be roughly ordered as I'd rank them for the week, but you can pick and...

Seven quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards in Week 4, including Joe Burrow and Jared Goff, who topped 400 yards each. However, it wasn’t a big week for touchdown passes. Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers, and Jameis Winston were the only quarterbacks to throw three touchdown passes. Seven quarterbacks had at least two interceptions, including Jacoby Brissett throwing three picks. As we turn our attention to Week 5, bye weeks now come into play. The Chiefs and Panthers will have the week off,...

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen take a final look at NFL Week 4 with a full breakdown of the Falcons-Saints Monday Night Football player prop market. They discuss their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props, highlighting the projections, matchup advantages, and prices that stand out before kickoff. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

I’ll be here each week for a breakdown of the top waiver wire targets and players it’s time to get off your squad. For this year, the recommended additions will be available in more than 60% of Yahoo fantasy football leagues, while the Drop List will consist of players rostered in at least 50% of leagues. Each position group will also include a Watch List. If your league is deeper with larger rosters, this is the spot for you. The Overall Top 10 is prioritized by typical league...

Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up with an NFC South Showdown between the Falcons and the Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Saints are favored by 1.5 points at home with the total set at 47.5 points. The Falcons scored 16 points in two losses with Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand at quarterback, then won 35-14 in Green Bay in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start since last season’s torn ACL. Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards, and Drake London caught...

We're already in Week 5, with bye weeks beginning, with Kansas City and Carolina off this weekend. This is when your depth gets tested, and those stale cross-your-fingers-and-hope-they-figure-it-out assets need to be looked at through a different lens. I always advise being aggressive on the waiver wire early in the year, and that gets tested more in the next few weeks. Anchoring to priors instead of seeing what actually happened is even more dangerous. Subscribe to 4for4 for FREE today...

1I’ll be here each week for a breakdown of the top waiver wire targets and players it’s time to get off your squad. For this year, the recommended additions will be available in more than 60% of Yahoo fantasy football leagues, while the Drop List will consist of players rostered in at least 50% of leagues. Each position group will also include a Watch List. If your league is deeper with larger rosters, this is the spot for you. The Overall Top 10 is prioritized by typical league...

Week after week, NFL stars are continuing to land on the injury report at unprecedented rates. We are using up-to-date research along with my clinical insight as a doctor of physical therapy to understand what the Week 4 injuries actually mean. To keep up to date with current injury content throughout the week, be sure to follow my YouTube channel. Jaylin lane Injury: Ankle Projected Return: TBD Jaylin Lane was injured on a kick return; it looked to be a left...

Prepare for fireworks on Sunday Night Football. If there’s one thing neither of these teams is known for, it is a grind-it-out, defense-first style of football. Since Jared Goff and Dan Campbell took over in Detroit, the team has ranked near the top of the NFL in offensive firepower. Bryce Young has also been hot out of the gate, posting more than 280 passing yards in each of the Panthers’ first three games. The projections for this game are sky-high, and the Vegas-implied total likely...

WEEK 4 NFL CHEATSHEET Pat Mayo is dropping the ultimate NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet. Get the latest on key player injuries, updated fantasy football rankings, DFS ownership strategies, and top Underdog Fantasy props for Week 4. Plus, Alex Blickle stops by to talk DFS leverage and underdog plays, and fill out another Underdog entry to try and give away $1000. Plus, Adam Pranica joins Pat to break down their Circa Millions contest picks. NFL Week 4 Cheatsheet + $1,000 Giveaway & Best Prop...

This hasn't been the best start to an NFL season, to put it lightly, but we are ready to turn that around quickly. It's mostly been a lot of outlier usage that has sunk some of our unders, so I'm trusting the process here. 6 profitable seasons in a row gives you some strength to move forward. Before we get into the plays, make sure to check out Sharpstack. The odds screen is incredible, and the EV tool has been printing on CFB. Get a free 7-day trial here: https://www.4for4.com/...

UFC Salt Lake City puts Natalia Silva's spotless 8-0 UFC run on the line against Wang Cong, a women's flyweight volume machine with a +4.02 significant strike differential. The market prices Silva more confidently than the underlying data does, which makes this a main event worth handicapping closely. In the co-main, rising bantamweight Payton Talbott gets his biggest name yet in former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, testing whether youth and pace can finally close the door on a...

Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings Pat Mayo, Jake Ciely, and Ian Hartitz break down everything you need to know for your fantasy lineup, including major running back updates on injuries (De'Von Achane, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, Jaylen Wright, and Ollie Gordon), wide receiver movement, tight end strategies, and start/sit decisions. Find out where players like Malik Washington, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Drake Maye land in this week's expert positional tiers. 2026 Week 4 Fantasy...

Whether you are interested in turning $1 into $1.80 or $50 into $90, deploying a sound cash game strategy when you are building your lineup for Sunday main slates is crucial. Cash game fantasy grinders can run into pitfalls when they fail to recognize the main goal of cash games is to maximize median and beat, often, a small group of opponents (or maybe just one) in the quest to do so. Ceiling outcomes should be narrowly considered relative to maximizing your lineup’s projectable floor. You...

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen welcome John Hyslop back to Move The Line for a full breakdown of the NFL Week 4 player prop market. The trio discusses their favorite passing, rushing, and receiving props across the slate, using projections, matchup data, and Prop Drops to identify the numbers and prices that stand out before kickoff. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan | John: http://x.com/sloprules Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We've added a handful of really talented analysts to the team this season, so make sure to get into our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays don't make it into this article due to time constraints. Join, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience. This new bet tracker can...

Week 4 brings a 12-game main slate on Sunday, kicking off at 1 p.m. ET, and both sites are again featuring Millionaire Maker contests. JAX/CIN carries the highest total on the slate at 51.5, with the Bengals favored by 2.5, and NE/BUF and DAL/HOU follow at 48.5, with the Bills favored by 7.0 and the Texans by 3.0. KC/LV and DEN/SF sit at 47.5, MIA/MIN has the lowest total on the slate at 38.5, and the Bills carry the highest implied team total at 27.75, with the Bengals and Ravens (27.0),...

Short on time setting your DFS lineups? These quick positional rankings cover the top skill players on both FanDuel and DraftKings for the week. I'll publish the first look each Friday morning, then update by Sunday morning to reflect injury news from Friday practices and Saturday travel reports. Think of these rankings as a snapshot of how I see the slate shaping up, along with the players I expect to have exposure to in my own lineups. FanDuel DFS Positional Picks Quarterbacks [...

Last week I threw a little shade at the number of teams having to start backup QBs in Week 4, and apparently that train of thought was just outright misguided. The backups came through in spades , as not only did the three I pointed out last week cover their spreads, they outright won. Case Keenum came in from a multi-year starting hiatus to down the Eagles with a 110 passer rating. Marcus Mariota more or less lucked his way into a 33-31 win against a typically very stout Seahawks...

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 4, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 16 games in the week. Let’s get started!

Two losing weeks in a row do not feel great. Alas, we press on. It was a pretty exciting week of NFL football; 12 one-score games in total on Sunday. We learnt a little bit more about who we can trust and who we should be wary of. I like to wait four weeks typically before jumping to bigger conclusions. Another 1-2 week; not great, but let’s recap. Week 2 Recap (1-2), Overall (5-4): How TreVeyon Henderson couldn’t get to 12 carries after amassing eight in the first half, I...

This week's historical revenge takes us back to 1941 during WWII. Devastated by her husband’s death on the Eastern Front, Mariya Vasilyevna Oktyabrskaya sold all her belongings to buy a Soviet T-34 battle tank. She named it “Fighting Girlfriend” and drove it directly into combat, becoming a legendary tank ace who crushed anti-tank guns and braved heavy artillery fire to get her revenge. Revenge is always on the minds of those done dirty, and not all NFL players who changed teams were...

Lookahead lines offer a glimpse into how bookmakers value teams before the week begins, unaffected by recency bias that can set in after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening, after the previous week's games are complete. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor, for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The...

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC North Showdown between the Steelers and the Browns at Huntington Bank Field. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Steelers are favored by 2.5 points on the road, with the total set at 38.5 points. The Steelers beat the Falcons 20-13, lost 20-3 in New England, and then beat the Bengals 30-27 on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against Cincinnati after throwing one touchdown pass in the first two games. Rico Dowdle (toe)...

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 4 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers and matchups offer value before kickoff. Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plans Watch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJ Join the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4 Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFL Connor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Evaluating offensive line play through a fantasy football lens can uncover matchup advantages that aren’t always obvious from traditional rankings or defensive fantasy points allowed. Each week, we’ll rank all 32 offensive lines, track the biggest movers, and compare those units against the opposing defense’s adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to identify the quarterback, running back, and D/ST matchups most affected by play in the trenches.

About a quarter of the field in the Splash Sports $21M Survivor World Championship got eliminated courtesy of Green Bay and Seattle last week, as the chalk choked for the second straight week. They are offering second-chance Week 3 contests, so get back in there if you were one of the casualties. We have the assistance of Sharpstack's EV Tool to guide us through this process, highlighting the win percentages of each NFL team and the optimal path, plus the option of a custom one if you...

Evaluating offensive line play through a fantasy football lens can uncover matchup advantages that aren’t always obvious from traditional rankings or defensive fantasy points allowed. Each week, we’ll rank all 32 offensive lines, track the biggest movers, and compare those units against the opposing defense’s adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to identify the quarterback, running back, and D/ST matchups most affected by play in the trenches. For Week 4, the Lions, Bears, and Vikings...

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 4, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 16 games in the week. Let’s get started!

Three weeks into the season, we have just enough information to be dangerous. It's the point of the year when fantasy managers start believing they know exactly who their players are. The guy who opened with two big games is a league winner. The guy who has disappointed three straight weeks is a bust. Neither is usually true, and that gap between perception and reality is where trades get won. Each week this season, I'll be here to highlight the most notable players to Buy Low or Sell High,...

We’re back again looking at the breakout model picks after Week 3. Let’s give some details on how this works, but the article last week has a more thorough walkthrough. About the Breakout Receiver Model The table below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis, and air yards on the y-axis. The numbers in the table show the average number of half PPR fantasy points that a target in that specific bucket earned in 2025.