Sign in

Stephen Hoopes

@stephenhoopes.bsky.social
1.6K followers 360 following 779 posts

Fantasy football writer @4for4football.bsky.social with data-heavy game previews. FSWA member. Dynasty and best ball takes with lots of graphs. Goeh bherds 🦅

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 4h
Still have a few Week 4 lineup decisions to make? The box score only tells part of the story. @stephenhoopes.bsky.social digs into usage, efficiency, matchup and game environment across every game on the slate.
131
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I've got KC Concepcion as WR33 in expected HPPR fantasy points/game. But he's underperforming that expectation by 3.5 points/game as he's 1/3 on his deeper targets and hasn't been able to get a YAC TD on those few targets near the opponent's endzone.
242
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I've got KC Concepcion as WR33 in expected HPPR fantasy points/game. But he's underperforming that expectation by 3.5 points/game as he's 1/3 on his deeper targets and hasn't been able to get a YAC TD on those few targets near the opponent's endzone.
242
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Every Week 4 matchup, through a fantasy lens. EPA. Success rate. PROE. CPOE. Usage. Game environment. @stephenhoopes.bsky.social puts the numbers together to show where each offense has an edge and where fantasy managers should be cautious.
151
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
If not now, when, for JaMo?
140
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Three weeks of fantasy points tell us who has produced. @stephenhoopes.bsky.social’ breakout model looks at who should have produced more based on the value of their opportunities. That gap can help point us toward what comes next.
151
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My nuanced thoughts on the Dolphins’ backfield.
080
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Damn it.
012
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Matchup. Usage. Game environment. Efficiency. @stephenhoopes.bsky.social puts it all together each week to help make sense of the fantasy decisions that aren’t obvious from the box score.
131
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Fantasy Football Week 3: Breakout Model Picks
4for4.com
Fantasy Football Week 3: Breakout Model Picks
With two weeks of data, it’s time to look at the breakout WR model for the first time this season. Let’s give some details on how this works. About the Breakout Receiver Model The table below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis. That field position ranges from backed up in your own end zone on the left side to the opponent’s goal line on the right side. And then air yards are on the y-axis. The numbers in the table show the average number of half-PPR fantasy points that a target...
011
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Hoping Ladd plays this week because I have him leading the league in expected points per target among WRs with at least 5 targets.
281
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Hoping Ladd plays this week because I have him leading the league in expected points per target among WRs with at least 5 targets.
281
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Every Week 2 game. Every major fantasy decision. @stephenhoopes.bsky.social breaks down the entire slate with start/sit calls, game-by-game matchup analysis, expected fantasy points, usage trends and plenty more.
4for4.com
Fantasy Football Week 2 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is
Welcome back to Hoopes There It Is! Just like last year, we’re previewing every game in the upcoming week, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. To that end, we’re doing things a little differently this year. Don’t worry, the 40-or-so graphs and tables are staying. But at the top I’ll provide a quick start/sit section that stems from the longer write-ups.
011
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
About 7,000 words and 40 graphs on the upcoming Week 2 slate for @4for4football.bsky.social . It's good to be back. www.4for4.com/2026/w2/fant...
132
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
About 7,000 words and 40 graphs on the upcoming Week 2 slate for @4for4football.bsky.social . It's good to be back. www.4for4.com/2026/w2/fant...
132
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
JP Acosta @acosta32jp.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
It's even better from the endzone angle!
4333
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Besides the Saints crushing everyone in play volume, it kind of looks like I just put all of these teams randomly on the graph. Good to be back lol.
010
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Bobby Football @robpaul.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Ted Cruz on College Gameday talking the Protect College Sports Act and he’s being booed so loudly by the Texas crowd you can barely hear him. The “Ted you suck” chant was louder than him
68317
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I'll be adding matchup values to my weekly Hoopes There It Is column this year. They take into account the strength of both the offense and their opponent's defense. And compares that to every game from 2021-2025 to get a percentile. Here are the Week 1 matchups this year based solely on 2025 stats.
2102
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I'll be adding matchup values to my weekly Hoopes There It Is column this year. They take into account the strength of both the offense and their opponent's defense. And compares that to every game from 2021-2025 to get a percentile. Here are the Week 1 matchups this year based solely on 2025 stats.
2102
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
John Paulsen @4for4-john.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Just ran through a quick mock draft using 4for4's cool new (free) mock draft tool. You can customize size, QB format, serpentine/straight/3RR, rounds, scoring, TE premium, starting lineup, and so on. Really cool: 4for4.com/mock-draft-s...
151
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Alex Vigderman @vigmanoncampus.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
This episode is sort of three parts: 1. State of football analytics: how it's used, are the nerds ruining the game, etc. 2. What's Expected Points Added (EPA), and why is it good/bad 3. How do we evaluate players statistically using EPA If any of those are interesting, check the episode out!
032
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I've been working on capturing the thoughts of The Official App of Sports. Really cooking with gas on the Aaron Rodgers one.
260
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
JM =^D @jm539581.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
OOOF!
11608110
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Come for the graphs, stay for the digs at the Giants. "Matt Nagy was handed the best QB on the planet and returned a league-average offensive finish. Now he gets the chance to work with Jaxson Dart instead. What could go wrong?"
263
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Sportsbook-implied points per game for the full season (x-axis) and specifically during the fantasy playoffs (y-axis). I periodically need a reminder to not load up on teams in the bottom-left corner.
030
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Patriots were the only team without a single dropback in a 3-TE set last year. Lots of teams just had a handful. The Rams of course had 132 lol.
010
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Having some fun with this Underdog game. Now just 17 coin flips away from $1M.
110
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Thanks to everyone that has checked out my best ball Chrome extension! Sim-based player recommendations right on your Underdog draft. Takes into account team and playoff week stacking, with settings adjustable by tournament. Coolest thing I've ever made. chromewebstore.google.com/detail/hoope...
171
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Alex Vigderman @vigmanoncampus.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Check out this week's @sportsinfosolutions.com Off the Charts Football Podcast, where we talk route concepts! More visual info threaded below. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/r...
podcasts.apple.com
Route Concepts Research
Podcast Episode · Off The Charts Football Podcast · July 30 · 41m
233
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Thanks to everyone that has checked out my best ball Chrome extension! Sim-based player recommendations right on your Underdog draft. Takes into account team and playoff week stacking, with settings adjustable by tournament. Coolest thing I've ever made. chromewebstore.google.com/detail/hoope...
171
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I've been working on a cool (free!) tool for Underdog best ball drafters. A Chrome extension that overlays on your Underdog draft (computer and Chrome only). Uses my projections and sims to suggest picks, accounting for team and Week 15-17 stacking. chromewebstore.google.com/detail/hoope...
chromewebstore.google.com
Hoopes Overdog - Chrome Web Store
Live Monte Carlo tournament-equity recommendations overlaid on your best ball draft.
131
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I've been working on a cool (free!) tool for Underdog best ball drafters. A Chrome extension that overlays on your Underdog draft (computer and Chrome only). Uses my projections and sims to suggest picks, accounting for team and Week 15-17 stacking. chromewebstore.google.com/detail/hoope...
chromewebstore.google.com
Hoopes Overdog - Chrome Web Store
Live Monte Carlo tournament-equity recommendations overlaid on your best ball draft.
131
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Sam Hoppen @samhoppen.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Is yards before contact an offensive line stat? Less than we treat it like one. I took a deep dive on a stat that we may have been reading wrong, using a couple of different modeling techniques to explain why. You can read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️
4233
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
The Coachspeak Index @coachspeakindex.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
#Colts HC Shane Steichen on Josh Downs’ involvement in the 2026 offense: “Getting him involved any way we can, whether it’s in 12 personnel — obviously, he plays a lot in the slot in 11 personnel. But just trying to find different ways to get him the ball.”
061
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Sim to season
030
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
We’re off and running at the Dallas live draft! #SFB16
160
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
4for4 Fantasy Football @4for4football.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Two dozen profiles are up site-wide, with more coming every day Submissions from: @wyattbff.bsky.social @stephenhoopes.bsky.social @rotomikebarner.bsky.social www.4for4.com/articles/aut...
054
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
If you're looking for a Bhayshul Tuten article that's mostly about Chris Rodriguez, boy do I have good news for you! www.4for4.com/2026/preseas...
051
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
If you're looking for a Bhayshul Tuten article that's mostly about Chris Rodriguez, boy do I have good news for you! www.4for4.com/2026/preseas...
051
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
All of the cool kids are excited about Rhamondre Stevenson this year (there's no way that's true).
040
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I genuinely think he's the only one.
120
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Had some fun with this one. I think the odds Downs hits his ceiling boils down to one question. How far can he move in the top-right direction of the graph below?
160
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
John Byrne @byronchenko.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Decided to look in to more to look for consensus/outlier takes for #SFB16 and found it really interesting! Thank you @brewpython27.bsky.social @fantasyalarm.bsky.social @wyattbff.bsky.social @rotowirenfl.bsky.social @stephenhoopes.bsky.social for having freely accessible projections/rankings up!
2102
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
I'm feeling increasingly confident that we'll see Josh Downs play on the outside more this year. That won't take much since only 14.5% of his career routes have been outside, according to SIS. But beyond just getting that alignment, we'd also like to see an expanded route tree outside.
120
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
This won't surprise anyone, but a RB's TD rate is highly correlated with where on the field they get the ball. Among 65 qualifying RBs, Sean Tucker led the league in TD rate last year. His average attempt was the 12th closest to the opponent's endzone. Bucky Irving was 63rd and 55th in those stats.
140
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Nathan Jahnke @ffnatejahnke.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"And I'm personally guaranteeing a 32.5% TPRR for (Colston Loveland for) the entire 2026 season. " - Stephen Hoopes
121
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Colston Loveland is currently my most-drafted player on Underdog. Among 26 qualifying TEs, Loveland was 5th in targets per route run during the regular season. The biggest issue was that he was 22nd in routes per game. Fortunately, we saw those routes spike in the last few weeks of the season.
152
Reposted by Stephen Hoopes
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
What do we actually care about for our fantasy RBs? Well, their ADP and FP per game last year are crucial. Beyond that, though, we generally want them scoring TDs, catching the ball, and generating explosive runs. Let's use Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson as examples.
181
Stephen Hoopes @stephenhoopes.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
What do we actually care about for our fantasy RBs? Well, their ADP and FP per game last year are crucial. Beyond that, though, we generally want them scoring TDs, catching the ball, and generating explosive runs. Let's use Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson as examples.
181