YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 4hWait...you think Algeria paid for Su-35s and Su-57s - yet didn't bother to buy the missiles which allow those same Su-35s to dominate Ukraine's old F-16s to the point they have to sneak at low heights to do ground attack missions and cannot even hope to strike back? archive.is/h4qJq 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 5hEh, if there is ONE modern thing which 1939 planes would have an advantage against, it's the kind of drone you are thinking of - literally designed against opponents with zero air force. This Chinese model is likely the most common one in Africa - SLOWER than a Hurricane, no default air-to-air. 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 14hSo what did the Korean War prove just five years later? It's hard to even conceivably have more supremacy then when "the UN" bombed North Korea to the literal ground. Never mind that even MORE bombs were then dropped onto Vietnam and its neighbours. (For the latter two, with very limited opposition) 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 16hWasting flight hours on a few hundred irreplaceable airframes to go around every airfield in Europe just to bomb stuff that's both harmless to them and costs comparative pennies to replace would be incredibly silly. The UK alone built like 7 of them DAILY - alongside Spitfires, Beaufighters, etc. 210
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 17hThe closest thing to that premise actually happening was probably the British bombing Palestinians into submission right around this time - and they still had thousands of ground forces involved. (The garrison was reduced, not eliminated.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936%E2... 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 18hRight - though if Trump did that (which would likely require reoccupying Iraq first, as all the other options are even stupider), China (and MASSIVELY pro-Chinese Pakistan) would do everything in their power to make it fail. Better to bleed the US there now than have its client state bomb you later. 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 18hErr; the area of North Vietnam + Laos + Cambodia = France + Belgium. And even without the (European) USSR, UK/Nordics/Eastern Europe are quite hard to reach with such jets from Africa. P.S. By the time of Linebacker, it was 15 years old and did very limited damage. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operati... 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 19hNot *quite* the same thing - but the US had already reduced North Korea to living in dug-outs IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE WAR. While they did down some of the bombers, it was hardly an adequate recompense for hundreds of thousands people and centuries of history erased. Still, they fought on. 011
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 21hIf a Nazi managed to get directly behind it with one AND if this set of bars got somehow torn off earlier, THEN it gets immobilized. (Or perhaps if it was aimed directly at the track - which could well be suicidal for the Nazi due to backblast.) Still, Panzerfaust didn't even exist in 1939, so... 010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22hTbf, if THIS is what France was like in September 1939, I cannot imagine the only other European countries that weren't already supportive of the aggressors (so basically the UK, the Nordics and the Baltics) would have done any better at deploying troops before the fighting was over. 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22hTHIS kind of a technical still ought to have the advantage, though. 030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22hTbf, target tracking would be awful on technicals as well - as this post points out, both of them would basically have to stop to properly fire at each other first. acoup.blog/2025/05/23/c... 130
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Passenger jets would probably get converted to tankers. Just the five largest airlines in Africa field almost 300 between them. (Some would be smaller and shorter-ranged than others, but all would substantially help to extend fighters' range.) simpleflying.com/largest-airl... 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026@tankarchives.bsky.social Wait, is that true? I don't recall reading anything about it either from you or any other source. (This post was amazing, though.) www.tankarchives.com/2014/10/pige... 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026And Mig-29s are deeply inferior to the dozens of Algerian Su-30s and Su-35s (never mind a handful of Su-57s) - but all of that is incredible overkill when AA, helicopters and trainer jets would get the job done - and when bombing factories is more important (with ~100s ex-airliners to refuel them.) 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026(Of course, neither Panzer III nor Panzer IV represented the plurality of armor in that invasion - ~2000 Panzer Is and IIs did, which were in fact all vulnerable to .50 cal, never mind the >1,000 Polish 37mm anti-tank guns licensed from Bofors - hence all the losses.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_I 120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Tbf, Panzer III A was NOT brand-new by 1939 - it was a 1937 prototype with 10 models. Even if you include the other 15mm-plated Panzer IIIs, you only get 35-65 out of ~150 by September 1939. Same for Panzer IV by then. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_... 120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Uh, synthetic rubber DID exist by then - its production was a major military target! (Of course, diverting 1930s Europe's oil output (already pitiful by today's standards) to make all the rubber synthetic = way fewer operational trucks, tanks, ships and planes.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthet... 010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026Very little oil was produced in the Middle East at the time. If this scenario leaves out the USSR and assumes the US also stays out, then most oil would come from Romania, followed by Germany's coal-to-chemicals, Hungary and minor Polish/domestic German production. warhistory.org/article/oil-... 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026I did account for that! 🔽 The main issue would really be target acquisition, as otherwise the Pan-African force risks falling into the "bombing to win" trap. (Then again, Africa's 5 largest airlines alone have nearly 300 high-altitude jets, adding recon/airlift.) simpleflying.com/largest-airl... 120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026I wonder if you ever caught this NYT article. archive.md/ycbXN (I also saw reporting elsewhere - might have been The American Conservative before they went full MAGA, of all things - that Ethiopia managed to have at least 3 drones hover over a single highway 24/7, rotating them around the clock.) 120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 12/10/2026What does 2) change? Brazil already has VERY little "confidence" in Putin (slightly less than in the UK, even) - but uniquely, this is somehow NOT paired with "confidence" in Zelenskyy. And the 30% "confident" in Trump probably all vote Bolsonaro anyway. www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/... 130
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Sapphic Jewish horror tale?! OK, time for my go-to book recommendation on here! 011
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Wait, such a tactic only works vs. the civilian ships, right? Wouldn't the EW on military vessels interfere too much with the two-way link? 010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The Mummy had been one of the most consistently profitable post-1980s blockbuster series, so...yeah. Since a film is considered immediately profitable after it grosses >2.5X its budget and an outright flop if it falls <2X, it's been doing better than the X-Men, post-Cameron Terminator or Alien, etc. 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Uh-oh. One of the most prominent USA posters had long argued that social media/"the phones" have been convincing people worldwide that things are worse than they actually are, from ~2010. So many of the British in 2013 believing services which got objectively worse were improving is...inconvenient. 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026HAVING SAID THAT - it is in practice VERY hard to imagine a scenario where the US attacks Israel to protect Palestinians - yet the 220 Egyptian and ~60 Jordanian F-16s somehow sit this out. While they have MUCH older radars than either US or Israeli planes, the maths would still look VERY different. 101
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026(And this assumes you are going to pull a carrier out of East Asia and leave Taiwan exposed, the way Trump is doing now. If not, that's 2 carriers = 120 fighters vs. 287). Moreover, US carriers "by default" only carry 12 F-35s, so even with 3, Israel would have 33% more (36 vs. 48). 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Then, the US planes could well have been outnumbered. Israel has 287 fighter jets; a Nimitz carries only 48 (60 in "augmented operations"), with the rest being helicopters + logistics. Since the "rule of thirds" makes it near-impossible to deploy more than 3/11 carriers, that's 144-180 jets at best. 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026That's absolutely NOT what a British Parliamentary inquiry found, for one! web.archive.org/web/20180412... 010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026And now Pakistan simultaneously despises the US over drone strikes and Israel, AND is basically the most pro-Chinese country there is. Compare and contrast. www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/... www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/... 030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026> the latter two don't sound bad for what they are Uhh, both Scream 7 and the 6th Scary Movie (an "unnumbered reboot") are already out, and are mostly thought to be some of the worst horror films of this year? I.e. this was notorious for its "pivot to anti-woke" (look at the tagline + the placard!) 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026In a nation-state, the primary identity is nationality, as defined by citizenship. An ethnostate explicitly refuses to define such an identity for fear it would take primacy over ethnic identities. I.e. 🔽 120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026People tend to be rather ignorant of how much stuff Egypt already possesses - and how well it could synergize with the Iranian strengths if they ever ended up even temporarily allied with regards to opposing Israel. See the 🧵 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of... 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026The Gracchi? As described by @bretdevereaux.bsky.social ... acoup.blog/2025/01/17/c... 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Please read the whole thing! Required climate action ALSO includes A LOT of messing with agriculture/forestry - and though not *required required*, every billion invested into international climate finance is likely to be far more effective, geopolitically speaking, vs it going into weapon systems. 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026So, since it's currently at ~3%, where does the extra 1-2% come from in this scenario, and what would it actually be doing? I.e. in hindsight, pretty sure the Actually Existing Cold War spending could have been considerably lower, since a lot of it just ended up flattening Southeast Asia. 100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Careful; some say you are doing "political blood libel"! "“What we are exposed to, Israel has suffered thousands of times from terrorist groups, such as Hamas and other factions that Israeli citizens know well,” Youssef Ezzat, an advisor to RSF commander...Daglo told Israel’s Kan broadcaster." 030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I did mention the long tail of sea level rise in other threads! It is VERY long, though; ice sheets literally melt over millennia. I.e. West Antarctica is almost certainly doomed already, but by 2500 we *probably* won't lose much more than Thwaites and Pine Island. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping... 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Imprecise quote. "That level [30 billion metric tons] of [energy-related CO2] emissions in 2050 implies global temperatures could rise between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius" - doesn't say by WHEN. On the IPCC graph, 30 gigatons from energy (+ half as much from land) is the middle line = ~2.7C in 2100 110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026(Admittedly, not all of them are saying that about climate change - "Camp of the Saints"-style fantasies are also in there, as are other causes. The plurality does, though - particularly the young.) Either way, are you going to pay attention now, and consider how all that fits into your theories? 020
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Will, I have been telling you since LAST YEAR that you REALLY ought to consider how a French poll from just BEFORE Covid found that out of the US, the UK, France, Italy and Germany, only the latter DIDN'T have a majority saying "global civilization" is likely to collapse (usually "within 20 years"). 250
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026To be fair, that is...an extreme position. Compare and contrast with this paper which looks at a world of about 6C in 2500 (projecting that a climate policy causing ~3.5C by 2100 will end up with that much by then). It's not remotely fun, but it's really not extinction either. 041
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Wait, to clarify - don't those "inference margins" imply model operation itself (sans training) is profitable now? www.forbes.com/sites/peterc... (Though, not sure it comports with whatever the index below is meant to measure; token costs "collapsed"....to ruinously unprofitable late-2025 levels?) 030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Thought-provoking 🧵 (I.e. got me wondering if the toll in Hiroshima could have been a lot smaller if there had been a subway...which led to me learning their tram network restarted operations 3 DAYS after the bomb - AND that these two are still kept in service!) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshi... 020
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Did Putin also make a Jordanian militant invade Dagestan at the same time and tell the media the bombings are great? Do you even know there was a practically identical bombing of a military family housing in Dagestan a week earlier, and another one in Rostov? web.archive.org/web/20201021... 000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026I mean...THIS is what so much of the American public believed in the gatekeeper era. Is this what we are being nostalgic for? www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ghos... Moreover, this is a notable point. 🔽 110