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YARDCG

@yardcg.bsky.social
626 followers 1.9K following 7.1K posts

Australian environmental science student, writer, modder. (He/him) Acronym = Yet Another Roguelike Dev (and) CinemaGoer. DMs blocked by BSky's verification. LB badly incomplete. boxd.it/ciP1z Ascended NetHack. Knowing history changes lives.

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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 4h
Wait...you think Algeria paid for Su-35s and Su-57s - yet didn't bother to buy the missiles which allow those same Su-35s to dominate Ukraine's old F-16s to the point they have to sneak at low heights to do ground attack missions and cannot even hope to strike back? archive.is/h4qJq
"The F-16 pilot highlights the threat posed by Russian fighter-interceptor aircraft such as the MiG-31 Foxhound, Su-35 Flanker, and the Su-57 Felon, the latter being its most advanced in-service combat jet, with a degree of stealth capability.

“They have the ability to be in the combat zone, at high altitudes, waiting for our groups to strike. And unfortunately, we do not have such an opportunity,” he says of the mismatch with the Russian Aerospace Forces.

To counter the threat of enemy missiles, the F-16s are forced to fly lower. “And we also have to use maneuver tactics when enemy aircraft come at us, lock us up, and launch air-to-air missiles at our planes. But regardless of this, with these limited capabilities, we carry out the task. We know that we are taking a risk.”

“When we go to strike targets on the ground, we understand that the guys are sitting in the trenches, it’s hard for them there, and they need our help, and aviation must support them,” the F-16 pilot explains. “Therefore, this is one of the main tasks for us.”"
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 5h
Eh, if there is ONE modern thing which 1939 planes would have an advantage against, it's the kind of drone you are thinking of - literally designed against opponents with zero air force. This Chinese model is likely the most common one in Africa - SLOWER than a Hurricane, no default air-to-air.
Wikipedia list of operators and specifications for CAIG Wing Loong II drone.

Operators

"Algeria — 24 units on order for the Algerian Air Force; they should be fully operational by 2022.
    Bangladesh — Bangladesh Air Force has 24 Wing Loong II UCAVs on order from China (2025).
   China — In service with the People's Liberation Army Air Force since 2018, as GJ-2.
    Egypt
    Libya — In service with the Libyan Air Force that supported the Haftar's forces during the Second Libyan Civil War. Supplied by the UAE.
    Morocco — In service with the Royal Moroccan Air Force.
    Nigeria — Used in Boko Haram insurgency.
    Pakistan — In October 2018, it was announced that Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and Chengdu Aircraft Corporation would jointly produce 48 Wing Loong II UAVs for use by the Pakistan Air Force.
    Saudi Arabia — In service with the Royal Saudi Air Force. Used during the Yemeni Civil War against Houthi militias.
    Somalia - Used in operations against Al-Shabaab.
    United Arab Emirates — Launch customer for Wing Loong II in 2017.
    Côte d'Ivoire — The Ivorian Air Force has acquired 2 units in 2026.

Specifications

Data from Army Recognition

General characteristics

    Crew: None
    Length: 11 m (36 ft 1 in)
    Wingspan: 20.5 m (67 ft 3 in)
    Height: 4.1 m (13 ft 5 in)
    Max takeoff weight: 4,200 kg (9,259 lb)

Performance

    Maximum speed: 370 km/h (230 mph, 200 kn)
    Cruise speed: 200 km/h (120 mph, 110 kn)
    Stall speed: 150 km/h (93 mph, 81 kn)
    Endurance: 32 hours
    Service ceiling: 9,900 m (32,500 ft)"

(For comparison, Hurricane had 550 km/h top speed - and a service ceiling of ~11 km. Obviously, it didn't have the 32-hour endurance, but that won't matter if its goal is point defence.)
110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 14h
So what did the Korean War prove just five years later? It's hard to even conceivably have more supremacy then when "the UN" bombed North Korea to the literal ground. Never mind that even MORE bombs were then dropped onto Vietnam and its neighbours. (For the latter two, with very limited opposition)
"The bombing campaign destroyed almost every substantial building in North Korea. The war's highest-ranking U.S. POW, U.S. Major General William F. Dean, reported that the majority of North Korean cities and villages he saw were either rubble or snow-covered wasteland. Dean Rusk, the U.S. State Department official who headed East Asian affairs, concluded that America had bombed "everything that moved in North Korea, every brick standing on top of another." North Korean factories, schools, hospitals, and government offices were forced to move underground....

In an interview with U.S. Air Force historians in 1988, US Air Force General Curtis LeMay, who was also head of the U.S. Strategic Air Command, commented on efforts to win the war as a whole, including the strategic bombing campaign, saying "Right at the start of the war, unofficially, I slipped a message in "under the carpet" in the Pentagon that we ought to turn SAC lose with some incendiaries on some North Korean towns. The answer came back, under the carpet again, that there would be too many civilian casualties; we couldn't do anything like that. We went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in North Korea anyway, some way or another, and some in South Korea, too… Over a period of three years or so we killed off, what, 20 percent of the population of Korea, as direct casualties of war or from starvation and exposure? Over a period of three years, this seemed to be acceptable to everybody, but to kill a few people at the start right away, no, we can't seem to stomach that"."

Pyongyang, which saw 75% of its area destroyed, was so devastated that bombing was halted as there were no longer any worthy targets.[32][33] By the end of the campaign, US bombers had difficulty in finding targets and were reduced to bombing footbridges or jettisoning their bombs into the sea"
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 16h
Wasting flight hours on a few hundred irreplaceable airframes to go around every airfield in Europe just to bomb stuff that's both harmless to them and costs comparative pennies to replace would be incredibly silly. The UK alone built like 7 of them DAILY - alongside Spitfires, Beaufighters, etc.
"The Canadian Car and Foundry of Fort William, Ontario, Canada, was a major Hurricane manufacturer, producing them from November 1938 after receiving their initial contract for 40 Hurricanes. The facility's chief engineer, Elsie MacGill, became known as the "Queen of the Hurricanes".[26] The initiative was commercially driven, but was endorsed by the British government. Hawker recognised that a major conflict was inevitable after the Munich Crisis of 1938 and drew up preliminary plans to expand Hurricane production at a new factory in Canada. Under this plan, samples, pattern aircraft, and design documents stored on microfilm were shipped to Canada. In 1938/39 the RCAF ordered 24 Hurricanes to equip one fighter squadron, 20 of which were delivered, and two were supplied to Canadian Car and Foundry as pattern aircraft, but one probably did not arrive, while the other was returned to Britain in 1940. The first Hurricane built at Canadian Car and Foundry was completed in February 1940.[26] Canadian-built Hurricanes shipped to Britain participated in the Battle of Britain.[26]

Overall, some 14,487 Hurricanes and Sea Hurricanes were produced in England and Canada.[27] The majority of Hurricanes, 9,986 were built by Hawker (who produced the type at Brooklands from December 1937 to October 1942 and at Langley Airfield, Berkshire from October 1939 to July 1944), while Hawker's sister company, the Gloster Aircraft Company, constructed 2,750. The Austin Aero Company completed 300 Hurricanes, and Canada Car and Foundry produced 1,451.[28] Those shipped to Britain, though, were often incomplete airframes, and about 80% were delivered without an engine."
210
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 17h
The closest thing to that premise actually happening was probably the British bombing Palestinians into submission right around this time - and they still had thousands of ground forces involved. (The garrison was reduced, not eliminated.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936%E2...
"Tegart introduced Arab Investigation Centres where prisoners were subjected to beatings, foot whipping (bastinado), electric shocks, denailing and what is now known as "waterboarding".[1] Tegart also imported Doberman Pinschers from South Africa and set up a special centre in Jerusalem to train interrogators in torture."

Role of the Royal Air Force

"The Royal Air Force developed close air support into its then most refined form during the Arab Revolt. Air patrols had been found effective in keeping convoys and trains free from attack, but this did not help to expose insurgents to battle conditions likely to cause their defeat.[126] From the middle of June 1936 wireless vehicles accompanied all convoys and patrols.[126] During rebel attacks these vehicles could issue emergency "XX calls" (XX with a coded location), which were given priority over all other radio traffic, to summon aerial reinforcements.[126] Bombers, which were usually airborne within five minutes, could then either attack insurgents directly or "fix" their position for infantry troops. Forty-seven such XX calls were issued during the revolt, causing heavy losses to the rebels.[126] In the June 1936 Battle of Nur Shams British planes attacked Arab irregulars with machine gun fire.

This use of air power was so successful that the British were able to reduce the regular garrison.

In 1936 an Air Staff Officer in Middle East Command based in the Kingdom of Egypt, Arthur Harris, known as an advocate of "air policing",[127] commented on the revolt saying that "one 250 lb. or 500 lb. bomb in each village that speaks out of turn" would satisfactorily solve the problem.[128] In 1937 Harris was promoted to Air Commodore and in 1938 he was posted to Palestine and Trans-Jordan as Air Officer Commanding the RAF contingent in the region until September 1939. "Limited" bombing attacks on Arab villages were carried out by the RAF,[129] although at times this involved razing whole villages."
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 18h
Right - though if Trump did that (which would likely require reoccupying Iraq first, as all the other options are even stupider), China (and MASSIVELY pro-Chinese Pakistan) would do everything in their power to make it fail. Better to bleed the US there now than have its client state bomb you later.
Pew poll results from Spring 2026, captioned "Global views of China are more positive than negative"

Unfavorable/Favorable split of attitudes:

Europe/NATO:

    Canada: 51/44
    The US itself: 71/27
    Hungary: 40/53
    Poland: 41/39
    UK: 52/46
    Greece: 32/55
    Italy: 46/51
    Spain: 39/54
    France: 58/36
    Germany: 64/33
    Netherlands: 59/34
    Sweden: 71/27

Asia/Oceania:

    Philippines: 57/40
    Japan: 88/11
    India: 54/23
    South Korea: 71/28
    Sri Lanka: 11/72
    Thailand: 30/69
    Singapore: 27/73
    Indonesia: 28/72
    Bangladesh: 33/56
    Australia: 67/31
    Malaysia: 25/75
    Pakistan: 7/90

“The Middle East”:

    Israel: 73/19
    Turkiye: 50/43
    West Bank/East Jerusalem: 27/57

Africa:

    Ghana: 29/64
    Nigeria: 17/78
    Kenya: 20/76
    South Africa: 38/52

Latin America:

    Colombia: 23/63
    Peru: 26/61
    Brazil: 40/46
    Argentina: 32/50
    Mexico: 28/59
    Chile: 36/49

37-country median: 39/51

The most notable part for the purposes of this question is the massive support for China in Pakistan.
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 18h
Err; the area of North Vietnam + Laos + Cambodia = France + Belgium. And even without the (European) USSR, UK/Nordics/Eastern Europe are quite hard to reach with such jets from Africa. P.S. By the time of Linebacker, it was 15 years old and did very limited damage. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operati...
"The following day 18 B-52s struck Thanh Hóa's Bai Thuong Air Base. Three more days followed before another strike, this time by another 18 bombers in a pre-dawn attack against an oil tank farm outside Haiphong. They were followed by more than 100 tactical aircraft attacking targets around Hanoi and Haiphong during daylight.[21] Between 6 and 15 April, U.S. aircraft also struck and destroyed the Paul Doumer and Thanh Hóa bridges and the Yên Viên railway marshalling yard. This marked the introduction of laser-guided bombs against strategic targets in North Vietnam. Both bridges had previously been attacked unsuccessfully with conventional bombs and even missiles. The B-52s were then withdrawn from operations in the north and when they returned in June, their missions would be limited to South Vietnam.[31]

By mid-month, nearly all of North Vietnam had been cleared for bombing raids for the first time in over three years. Air Force and Navy commanders and pilots were relieved that Nixon (unlike President Johnson) left the operational planning to local commanders and loosened the targeting restrictions that had hampered Operation Rolling Thunder.[32] Between 1 May and 30 June B-52s, fighter-bombers, and gunships had flown 18,000 sorties against formidable anti-aircraft defenses with the loss of 29 aircraft."
100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 19h
Not *quite* the same thing - but the US had already reduced North Korea to living in dug-outs IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE WAR. While they did down some of the bombers, it was hardly an adequate recompense for hundreds of thousands people and centuries of history erased. Still, they fought on.
"The bombing campaign destroyed almost every substantial building in North Korea. The war's highest-ranking U.S. POW, U.S. Major General William F. Dean, reported that the majority of North Korean cities and villages he saw were either rubble or snow-covered wasteland. Dean Rusk, the U.S. State Department official who headed East Asian affairs, concluded that America had bombed "everything that moved in North Korea, every brick standing on top of another." North Korean factories, schools, hospitals, and government offices were forced to move underground....

In an interview with U.S. Air Force historians in 1988, US Air Force General Curtis LeMay, who was also head of the U.S. Strategic Air Command, commented on efforts to win the war as a whole, including the strategic bombing campaign, saying "Right at the start of the war, unofficially, I slipped a message in "under the carpet" in the Pentagon that we ought to turn SAC lose with some incendiaries on some North Korean towns. The answer came back, under the carpet again, that there would be too many civilian casualties; we couldn't do anything like that. We went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in North Korea anyway, some way or another, and some in South Korea, too… Over a period of three years or so we killed off, what, 20 percent of the population of Korea, as direct casualties of war or from starvation and exposure? Over a period of three years, this seemed to be acceptable to everybody, but to kill a few people at the start right away, no, we can't seem to stomach that"."

Pyongyang, which saw 75% of its area destroyed, was so devastated that bombing was halted as there were no longer any worthy targets.[32][33] By the end of the campaign, US bombers had difficulty in finding targets and were reduced to bombing footbridges or jettisoning their bombs into the sea
011
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 21h
If a Nazi managed to get directly behind it with one AND if this set of bars got somehow torn off earlier, THEN it gets immobilized. (Or perhaps if it was aimed directly at the track - which could well be suicidal for the Nazi due to backblast.) Still, Panzerfaust didn't even exist in 1939, so...
An Abrams tank photographed from the rear, with a set of bars protecting it from RPG-7-style warheads clearly visible.
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22h
Tbf, if THIS is what France was like in September 1939, I cannot imagine the only other European countries that weren't already supportive of the aggressors (so basically the UK, the Nordics and the Baltics) would have done any better at deploying troops before the fighting was over.
"Despite several partial mobilisations since 1936, during the full mobilisation in September 1939, officers were unfamiliar with their duties, technical experts were simultaneously expected to hand over their vehicles, report to recruitment centres and were also exempt from service as essential workers. Reservists flooded the depots leading to shortages of beds and poor sanitary conditions. The army lacked 150,000 pairs of trousers, 350,000 blankets, 415,000 tents and 600,000 pairs of boots. Recruits often left their centres and returned home or drank excessively as they waited around for someone to take charge and integrate them. This was a disastrous process not too dissimilar from that of 1870, though the main German blow fell on Poland initially and not France.[93]

The French mechanised light and heavy armoured divisions (DLM and DCr) were new and not thoroughly trained. Reserve B Divisions were composed of reservists above 30 years old and ill-equipped. A serious qualitative deficiency was a lack of anti-aircraft artillery, mobile anti-tank artillery and wireless, despite the efforts of Gamelin to produce mobile artillery units.[89][94] Only 0.15 per cent of military spending between 1923 and 1939 had been on radio and other communications equipment; to maintain signals security, Gamelin used telephones and couriers to communicate with field units."
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22h
THIS kind of a technical still ought to have the advantage, though.
Blog's caption: 

"Via Wikipedia, a Libyan technical in 2011, used as a platform for a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft autocannon (normally deployed in a towed configuration, but here mounted on a technical to create a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun)."
030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 22h
Tbf, target tracking would be awful on technicals as well - as this post points out, both of them would basically have to stop to properly fire at each other first. acoup.blog/2025/05/23/c...
"Indeed, the Allies ran accuracy tests (because of course they did) on the M4 Sherman the Crusader Tank and their stabilizers and Tank Archives was good enough to dig up the reports. You can really get a sense of the problem from the table on p. 12 of the report, the table labeled “Stationary Fire, Firing from Halt, Moving Fire with and without Gyrostabilizer.” It records accuracy against a stationary 49 square foot (7×7) target “under the most favourable conditions,” as a ‘probability of hit’ at a given set of ranges:"

Type of Fire	200 yards	500 yards	1000 yards
Stationary	99+%	99+%	99+%
From Halt	99+%	99+%	88%
Moving, with Gyro	82%	46%	19%
Moving, without Gyro	46%	18%	6.5% (est)
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Passenger jets would probably get converted to tankers. Just the five largest airlines in Africa field almost 300 between them. (Some would be smaller and shorter-ranged than others, but all would substantially help to extend fighters' range.) simpleflying.com/largest-airl...
Screenshot of 5 tables from the linked article, which lists the aircraft inventories of the 5 largest airlines in Africa.

"Ethiopian Airlines

Fleet size: 134

Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A350 	20
Boeing 737 	32
Boeing 767 	3
Boeing 777 	20
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	29
De Havilland Canada DHC-8 Dash 8 	30" (this one is crossed out by me, with "turboprop" added to it, because unlike the jets, it cannot fly high enough to avoid getting hit by AA guns.)

"2 Egypt Air
Fleet size: 69
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A320 	8
Airbus A321 	7
Airbus A330 	11
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 777 	6
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	7"

"Air Algerie
Fleet size: 55
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	15 (also crossed out by me as a turboprop)
Airbus A330 	8
Boeing 737 	32"

Royal Air Maroc
Fleet size: 50
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	6 (again, a turboprop)
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 767 	1
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	4"

"5 Kenya Airways
Fleet size: 34
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Boeing 737 	12
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	13"
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
@tankarchives.bsky.social Wait, is that true? I don't recall reading anything about it either from you or any other source. (This post was amazing, though.) www.tankarchives.com/2014/10/pige...
Translation inside the linked post of an archived Soviet document about fighting the Japanese in Manchuria.

"In some cases, pigeons were released 1500-2000 meters from us. They circled around the vicinity and hovered above our column when spotted, marking us for artillery and mortar fire (see p. 27). At the same time, small groups of Japanese suicide bombers moved out in front of us with prepared explosives or mines to destroy our tanks and SPGs."
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
And Mig-29s are deeply inferior to the dozens of Algerian Su-30s and Su-35s (never mind a handful of Su-57s) - but all of that is incredible overkill when AA, helicopters and trainer jets would get the job done - and when bombing factories is more important (with ~100s ex-airliners to refuel them.)
Screenshot of 5 tables from the article listing the aircraft inventories of the 5 largest airlines in Africa. All of the jet airliners can fly further than 1939's fighter jets or AA guns can reach, and so would be functionally invulnerable if converted into air tankers (or even recon planes or bombers, though that would likely be less efficient.)

"Ethiopian Airlines

Fleet size: 134

Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A350 	20
Boeing 737 	32
Boeing 767 	3
Boeing 777 	20
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	29
De Havilland Canada DHC-8 Dash 8 	30" (this one is crossed out by me, with "turboprop" added to it, because unlike the jets, it cannot fly high enough to avoid getting hit by AA guns.)

"2 Egypt Air
Fleet size: 69
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A320 	8
Airbus A321 	7
Airbus A330 	11
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 777 	6
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	7"

"Air Algerie
Fleet size: 55
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	15 (also crossed out by me as a turboprop)
Airbus A330 	8
Boeing 737 	32"

Royal Air Maroc
Fleet size: 50
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	6 (again, a turboprop)
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 767 	1
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	4"

"5 Kenya Airways
Fleet size: 34
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Boeing 737 	12
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	13"
100
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
(Of course, neither Panzer III nor Panzer IV represented the plurality of armor in that invasion - ~2000 Panzer Is and IIs did, which were in fact all vulnerable to .50 cal, never mind the >1,000 Polish 37mm anti-tank guns licensed from Bofors - hence all the losses.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_I
"Poland and the campaign in the west

On 1 September 1939, Germany invaded Poland using seventy-two divisions (including 16 reserve infantry divisions in OKH reserves), including seven panzer divisions (1., 2., 3., 4., 5., 10., "Kempf") and four light divisions (1., 2., 3., 4.). Three days later, France and Britain declared war on Germany. The seven panzer and four light divisions were arrayed in five armies, forming two army groups.[52] The battalion strength of the 1st Panzer Division included no less than fourteen Panzer Is, while the other six divisions included thirty-four.[56] About 2,700 tanks were available for the invasion of Poland, but only 310 of the heavier Panzer III and IV tanks were available. Furthermore, 350 were of Czech design—the rest were either Panzer Is or Panzer IIs.[57] The invasion was swift and the last Polish pockets of resistance surrendered on 6 October.[58] The entire campaign had lasted five weeks (with help of the Soviet forces, which attacked on 17 September), and the success of Germany's tanks in the campaign was summed up in response to Hitler on 5 September: when asked if it had been the dive bombers who destroyed a Polish artillery regiment, Guderian replied, "No, our panzers!"[59]

Some 832 German tanks (including 320 PzI, 259 PzII, 40 Pz III, 76 PzIV, 77 Pz35(t), 13 PzBef III, 7 PzBef 38(t), 34 other PzBef and some Pz38(t))[60] were lost during the campaign, approximately 341 of which never to return to service. This represented about a third of Germany's armor deployed for the Polish campaign.[60] During the campaign, no fewer than half of Germany's tanks were unavailable due to maintenance issues or enemy action, and of all tanks, the Panzer I proved the most vulnerable to Polish anti-tank weapons"
120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Tbf, Panzer III A was NOT brand-new by 1939 - it was a 1937 prototype with 10 models. Even if you include the other 15mm-plated Panzer IIIs, you only get 35-65 out of ~150 by September 1939. Same for Panzer IV by then. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_...
Table from the linked Wikipedia article, which notes that there were only 10 Panzers III A, 10 Panzers III B and 15 Panzers III C, all of which had 15mm armour. There were also 30 Panzers III D, with 30mm turrets but 15 mm hulls. In contrast, 96 Panzers III Es were produced in 1939, all before the invasion of Poland.
120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Uh, synthetic rubber DID exist by then - its production was a major military target! (Of course, diverting 1930s Europe's oil output (already pitiful by today's standards) to make all the rubber synthetic = way fewer operational trucks, tanks, ships and planes.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthet...
"Word War II

"Production of synthetic rubber in the United States expanded greatly during World War II since the Axis powers controlled nearly all the world's limited supplies of natural rubber by mid-1942, following the Japanese conquest of most of Asia, particularly in the Southeast Asian colonies of British Malaya (Malaysia) and the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) from where much of the global supply of natural rubber was sourced.[6] However, production of synthetic rubber was still not sufficient to eliminate the threat that the U.S. would run out of rubber.

During the Allies' Operation Pointblank, bombing targets in Nazi Germany included the Schkopau plant (50,000 tons/yr) and the Hüls synthetic rubber plant near Recklinghausen (30,000, 17%),[8] and the Kölnische Gummifäden Fabrik tire and tube plant at Deutz on the east bank of the Rhine.[9] The synthetic rubber factory in Ferrara, Italy (near a river bridge) was bombed August 23, 1944.[10] Three other synthetic rubber facilities were at Ludwigshafen/Oppau (15,000), Hanover/Limmer (reclamation, 20,000), and Leverkusen (5,000). A synthetic rubber plant at Oświęcim, in Nazi-occupied Poland, was under construction on March 5, 1944[11] operated by IG Farben and supplied by the SS with slave labor from the associated Monowitz concentration camp"
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Very little oil was produced in the Middle East at the time. If this scenario leaves out the USSR and assumes the US also stays out, then most oil would come from Romania, followed by Germany's coal-to-chemicals, Hungary and minor Polish/domestic German production. warhistory.org/article/oil-...
"Oil became a major strategic problem for Adolf Hitler and the Wehrmacht as Germany lost access to overseas imports from 1939. Oil was taken from stockpiles in Poland and the small Polish fields at Borislav-Drogobic...After BARBAROSSA cut off Soviet barter shipments from mid- 1941, the Wehrmacht relied on imports from Rumania and on German domestic and synthetic production—with the latter producing lower-grade fuels from coal in hydrogenation plants. 

For most of the war Germany relied principally on oil pumped from the Rumanian fields at Ploesti. Even at full production, the Rumanian wells supplied fewer than 6 million tons....Total German oil production reached 5.7 million tons in 1941, of which 4 million tons was synthetic. The Germans briefly captured the small Soviet oil field at Maikop, holding it from August 1942 to January 1943. However, most of its facilities and wells were wrecked before the Red Army pulled out. 

...Soviet oil production was 33 million tons per annum prewar. That fell to 18 million tons in 1943, an amount still twice the tonnage available to Germany. As the Red Army advanced westward in the summer and fall of 1944, it overran two small German oil sources, a small number of wells in eastern Poland, and the oil shale of Estonia. Destruction of the Rumania wells and refineries at Ploesti by Western bombing and then Soviet occupation on August 30, 1944, meant that Hitler’s last external supply was the Nagykanizsa field in Hungary....

The Middle East was only just developing its oil capacity prior to World War II. The first well in the Middle East was drilled in Iran in 1908, overnight elevating the strategic importance of that region. Oil was first extracted from Iraq in 1927, Saudi Arabia in 1935, and Kuwait in 1938. But production was low by world standards and transport difficult and easily intercepted."
110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
🔽 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contine...
Wikipedia table of continent land areas and population estimates. I have highlighted the areas of Africa (30,365,000 km2/11,724,000 mi2) and Europe (10,000,000 km2/ 3,900,000 mi2) to make the comparison plain.
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
I did account for that! 🔽 The main issue would really be target acquisition, as otherwise the Pan-African force risks falling into the "bombing to win" trap. (Then again, Africa's 5 largest airlines alone have nearly 300 high-altitude jets, adding recon/airlift.) simpleflying.com/largest-airl...
Screenshot of 5 tables from the linked article, which lists the aircraft inventories of the 5 largest airlines in Africa.

"Ethiopian Airlines

Fleet size: 134

Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A350 	20
Boeing 737 	32
Boeing 767 	3
Boeing 777 	20
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	29
De Havilland Canada DHC-8 Dash 8 	30" (this one is crossed out by me, with "turboprop" added to it, because unlike the jets, it cannot fly high enough to avoid getting hit by AA guns.)

"2 Egypt Air
Fleet size: 69
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Airbus A320 	8
Airbus A321 	7
Airbus A330 	11
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 777 	6
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	7"

"Air Algerie
Fleet size: 55
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	15 (also crossed out by me as a turboprop)
Airbus A330 	8
Boeing 737 	32"

Royal Air Maroc
Fleet size: 50
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
ATR 42/72 	6 (again, a turboprop)
Boeing 737 	30
Boeing 767 	1
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	4"

"5 Kenya Airways
Fleet size: 34
Aircraft 	Fleet Size
Boeing 737 	12
Boeing 787 Dreamliner 	9
Embraer ERJ-190 	13"
120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
I wonder if you ever caught this NYT article. archive.md/ycbXN (I also saw reporting elsewhere - might have been The American Conservative before they went full MAGA, of all things - that Ethiopia managed to have at least 3 drones hover over a single highway 24/7, rotating them around the clock.)
"For Mr. Abiy, the drones arrived just in time.

He launched a military campaign in Tigray in November 2020, a year after he won the Nobel Peace Prize, in coordination with the leader of neighboring Eritrea. But his forces suffered a humiliating defeat last summer when Tigrayan rebels forced them from Tigray, then started to push south. By late November the Tigrayans were approaching the city of Debre Birhan, about 85 miles north of Addis Ababa.

But they could go no further. Swarms of drones appeared overhead, striking soldiers and supply convoys, Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a leading Tigrayan commander, said in an interview with The New York Times.

But they could go no further. Swarms of drones appeared overhead, striking soldiers and supply convoys, Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a leading Tigrayan commander, said in an interview with The New York Times.

“At one time, there were 10 drones in the sky,” he said. “You can imagine the effect. We were an easy target.”
120
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
What does 2) change? Brazil already has VERY little "confidence" in Putin (slightly less than in the UK, even) - but uniquely, this is somehow NOT paired with "confidence" in Zelenskyy. And the 30% "confident" in Trump probably all vote Bolsonaro anyway. www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/...
"How views of Trump compare with other global leaders" Pew graphic from spring of 2026. It measures "confidence" in 6 world leaders "to do the right thing regarding world affairs" across 36 countries, with the following results (lack of confidence is first):

Macron: 46/43
Zelenskyy: 52/35
Xi: 53/34
Putin: 65/31
Trump: 76/23
Netanyahu: 74/18

Brazil specifically polls 13% "confidence" in Putin, which is the lowest rating for a world leader there - followed by 18% in Netanyahu, 22% in Xi, 24% in Zelenskyy, 27% in Macron and 30% in Trump. In general, none of Latin American countries have above-water confidence ratings for any of the world leaders in the poll - they usually poll at or below 30%.
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Sapphic Jewish horror tale?! OK, time for my go-to book recommendation on here!
Cover of The Moth Diaries by Rachel Klein, with a large transparent moth across it.
011
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Btw, that was the exact tagline of Eddington.
Eddington poster (the one with a sepia-toned depiction of ungulates falling off a cliff as a metaphor for that film's conflict.)
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Wait, such a tactic only works vs. the civilian ships, right? Wouldn't the EW on military vessels interfere too much with the two-way link?
Nimitz carrier Wikipedia page section screenshot, highlighting its sheer size and the presence of an EW countermeasures suite.
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Mummy had been one of the most consistently profitable post-1980s blockbuster series, so...yeah. Since a film is considered immediately profitable after it grosses >2.5X its budget and an outright flop if it falls <2X, it's been doing better than the X-Men, post-Cameron Terminator or Alien, etc.
Counter-clockwise collage of Wikipedia infobox box office returns for the five "The Mummy" films to date (their names didn't fit, but the release years are included so you can tell which is which.) Essentially, the original grossed 5.2X its budget, the 2001 sequel 4.5X, the China-set threequel from 2008 grossed 2.8X, the failed "Dark Universe" reboot grossed anywhere between 3.3 and 2.1X due to uncertainty in how much it cost, and the fairly cheap Lee Cronin spin-off from this year grossed 4.1X its budget.
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Uh-oh. One of the most prominent USA posters had long argued that social media/"the phones" have been convincing people worldwide that things are worse than they actually are, from ~2010. So many of the British in 2013 believing services which got objectively worse were improving is...inconvenient.
"Many people in the UK think the quality of public services overall have been maintained or improved in the past five years despite government cuts, a poll for the BBC suggests.

More of the 1,031 people surveyed feel bin collections, parks and libraries, schools and bus services have improved than those who think they are worse.

But the responses indicate people think the quality of elderly care, hospitals, police and road maintenance is lower.

Councils say funding remains a concern.

The Local Government Association says overall the results are testament to the resilience of councils, but says that unless finances become sustainable, satisfaction levels will decline.

It is five years since the bail-out of the banks marked a new era of austerity in Britain amid warnings that deep cuts to state spending would see the standard of public services plunge.

But today's poll by ICM, external suggests six out of 10 people think service quality has been maintained or improved."

The poll itself shows that the ONLY public service where a clear majority (~66%) believed it got worse had been road maintenance. For street cleaning and street lighting, the majorities (54% and 58%) believed the quality stayed the same; for most other services, that was the plurality answer. For many services, the number of people who believed it got better slightly outnumbered the number who believed it got worse.
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
HAVING SAID THAT - it is in practice VERY hard to imagine a scenario where the US attacks Israel to protect Palestinians - yet the 220 Egyptian and ~60 Jordanian F-16s somehow sit this out. While they have MUCH older radars than either US or Israeli planes, the maths would still look VERY different.
Wikipedia table of the 62 older F-16s possessed by the Royal Jordanian Air Force, which are their only fighter jet.
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
(And this assumes you are going to pull a carrier out of East Asia and leave Taiwan exposed, the way Trump is doing now. If not, that's 2 carriers = 120 fighters vs. 287). Moreover, US carriers "by default" only carry 12 F-35s, so even with 3, Israel would have 33% more (36 vs. 48).
Wikipedia's "Nimitz-class aircraft carrier" article section on "Carrier air wing".

"In order for a carrier to deploy, it must embark one of ten Carrier Air Wings (CVW).[Note 3] The carriers can accommodate a maximum of 130 F/A-18 Hornets[39] or 85–90 aircraft of different types, but current numbers are typically 64 aircraft. Although the air wings are integrated with the operation of the carriers they are deployed to, they are regarded as separate entities. As well as the aircrew, the air wings are also made up of support personnel involved in roles including maintenance, aircraft and ordnance handling, and emergency procedures. Each person on the flight deck wears color-coded clothing to make their role easily identifiable.[40]

A typical carrier air wing includes 36-48 F/A-18E or F Super Hornets as strike fighters, split between 3-4 squadrons; up to 12 F-35Cs, contributed by a squadron of Navy or Marine aviation; 4–8 EA-18G Growlers for electronic warfare; 4–6 E-2D Hawkeyes for airborne early warning (AEW), 1-3 C-2 Greyhounds used for logistics (to be replaced by CMV-22 Ospreys); and a Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron of 6–8 MH-60R and MH-60S Seahawks and 'Knighthawks', respectively. Marine F/A-18C or D Hornet squadrons are also sometimes deployed in place of F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and/or F-35C squadrons. Future aircraft planned for operation from Nimitz and future classes of aircraft carrier include the MQ-25 Stingray, and two squadrons of F-35C, replacing a F/A-18E/F Super Hornet squadron. Aircraft previously operated from Nimitz-class carriers include F-4 Phantoms, RA-5C Vigilantes, RF-8G Crusaders, F-14 Tomcats, S-3 Vikings, EA-3B Skywarriors, EA-6B Prowlers, A-7 Corsair II, and A-6E Intruder aircraft.[41]"
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Then, the US planes could well have been outnumbered. Israel has 287 fighter jets; a Nimitz carries only 48 (60 in "augmented operations"), with the rest being helicopters + logistics. Since the "rule of thirds" makes it near-impossible to deploy more than 3/11 carriers, that's 144-180 jets at best.
Wikipedia table of Israeli aircraft inventory; 66 F-15s, 173 F-16s and 48 F-35s - a total of 287. 

(The screenshot also captures their 4 AWACS.)
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
That's absolutely NOT what a British Parliamentary inquiry found, for one! web.archive.org/web/20180412...
"Despite his rhetoric, the proposition that Muammar Gaddafi would have ordered the massacre of civilians in Benghazi was not supported by the available evidence. The Gaddafi regime had retaken towns from the rebels without attacking civilians in early February 2011. During fighting in Misrata, the hospital recorded 257 people killed...in February and March 2011. Those casualties included 22 women and eight children. Libyan doctors told United Nations investigators that Tripoli’s morgues contained more than 200 corpses following fighting in late February 2011, of whom two were female. The disparity between male and female casualties suggested that Gaddafi regime forces targeted male combatants in a civil war and did not indiscriminately attack civilians. More widely, Muammar Gaddafi’s 40-year record of appalling human rights abuses did not include large-scale attacks on Libyan civilians.

On 17 March 2011, Muammar Gaddafi announced to the rebels in Benghazi, “Throw away your weapons, exactly like your brothers in Ajdabiya and other places did. They laid down their arms and they are safe. We never pursued them at all.” Subsequent investigation revealed that when Gaddafi regime forces retook Ajdabiya in February 2011, they did not attack civilians.

Muammar Gaddafi also attempted to appease protesters in Benghazi with an offer of development aid before finally deploying troops...If you go back to the American bombings in the 1980s of Benghazi and Tripoli, rather than trying to remove threats to the regime in the east, in Cyrenaica, Gaddafi spent six months trying to pacify the tribes that were located there. The evidence is that he was well aware of the insecurity of parts of the country and of the
unlikelihood that he could control them through sheer violence. Therefore, he would have been very careful in the actual response…the fear of the massacre of civilians was vastly overstated."
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
And now Pakistan simultaneously despises the US over drone strikes and Israel, AND is basically the most pro-Chinese country there is. Compare and contrast. www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/... www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/...
Unfavorable/Favorable split of attitudes towards the US:

Canada: 66/33

Hungary: 38/58

Poland: 43/49

UK: 58/41

Greece: 60/37

Italy: 69/31

Spain: 67/30

France: 70/27

Germany: 71/27

Netherlands: 71/25

Sweden: 80/19

Philippines: 41/59

Japan: 50/50

India: 31/45

South Korea: 55/45

Sri Lanka: 40/42

Thailand: 63/36

Singapore: 66/34

Indonesia: 70/29

Bangladesh: 63/26

Australia: 76/24

Malaysia: 80/19

Pakistan: 81/15

Israel: 19/81

Turkiye: 84/13

West Bank/East Jerusalem: 81/9

Ghana: 22/68

Nigeria: 32/63

Kenya: 35/63

South Africa: 55/35

Colombia: 35/60

Peru: 38/51

Brazil: 43/57

Argentina: 44/44

Mexico: 55/40

Chile: 53/37

36-country median: 57/37

Additional context from the article:


"In many of the countries we have surveyed since 2002 – including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea and the U.K. – positive ratings are at or near the lowest they’ve been.

And although overall ratings for the U.S. are positive in Israel and Nigeria, they are at historic lows in our polling among some subgroups in both countries. Only 19% of Arab Israelis express a favorable view of the U.S., down from 29% last year and the lowest share we’ve measured in any of our Israel surveys. In contrast, 96% of Jewish Israelis have a favorable opinion of the U.S.

Similarly, a record-low 36% of Nigerian Muslims rate the U.S. favorably, down drastically from 73% last year. Roughly eight-in-ten Nigerian Christians (82%) express a favorable view."Pew poll results captioned "Global views of China are more positive than negative"

"Across 37 countries surveyed, a median of 51% have a favorable view of China, while 39% have an unfavorable view.

Opinions are generally positive in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. They are somewhat more negative in Europe and North America.

The most positive – and the most negative – views of China are in the Asia-Pacific region. Nine-in-ten Pakistanis see China favorably, compared with just 11% of Japanese adults.

...These disparate views within the Asia-Pacific region are part of a broader pattern: Views of China tend to be more negative in wealthier countries, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Singapore is a clear exception to this pattern, with both the highest GDP of any country surveyed and a favorability toward China that falls well above the cross-national median."

Additional highlights:

* Greece, Spain, Hungary and Italy are the  European countries surveyed with a slim majority (low 50%) expressing favourable perceptions of China. Poland has a very even 39%-41% split towards unfavourable.

* Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Indonesia all have favourable perceptions of China in the %70s range. In Thailand, it's 69% positive.

* All of the African (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and South Africa) and South American (Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Brazil) countries surveyed have more favourable than unfavourable views of China - often significantly so.

* Sweden, South Korea and Israel are the only countries to dislike as much as the US does (in the low %70s) - although Australia and Germany are not far behind, in the 60%.
030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
> the latter two don't sound bad for what they are Uhh, both Scream 7 and the 6th Scary Movie (an "unnumbered reboot") are already out, and are mostly thought to be some of the worst horror films of this year? I.e. this was notorious for its "pivot to anti-woke" (look at the tagline + the placard!)
2026's Scary Movie poster - tagline "Every Line Will Be Crossed". One of the characters in its cast holds a poster "I'm Woke, so I'm Broke".
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
In a nation-state, the primary identity is nationality, as defined by citizenship. An ethnostate explicitly refuses to define such an identity for fear it would take primacy over ethnic identities. I.e. 🔽
Screenshot of DuckDuckGo (NoAI version) search results

Result 1: "Israeli? There's no such nationality" - The Jewish Chronicle

"Israel's Supreme Court has rejected a petition by a group of Israelis who requested that their nationality clause in the national population records be changed from "Jewish" to "Israeli ..."

Result 2: "No such thing as 'Israeli nationhood,' country's Supreme Court says" - Los Angeles Times

"Oct 3, 2013JERUSALEM -- There is no such thing as "Israeli nationhood," Israel's Supreme Court has ruled, putting to an end a 40-year legal battle but leaving fundamental questions about national identity ..."

Result 3: "Is there such a thing as an 'Israeli' people? Supreme Court says no" - Israel Hayom

""Israeli" describes citizenship, not nationality in an ethnic sense, court rules • Petitioners seek "Israeli" ethnicity to be listed in government registry, but court claims there is insufficient evidence to suggest such a group exists."
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
People tend to be rather ignorant of how much stuff Egypt already possesses - and how well it could synergize with the Iranian strengths if they ever ended up even temporarily allied with regards to opposing Israel. See the 🧵 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
Screenshot of a Wikipedia table of Egypt's estimated 2000 tanks - 1300 of which are M1A1 Abrams, nearly half of which are in the process of receiving additional upgrades.
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The Gracchi? As described by @bretdevereaux.bsky.social ... acoup.blog/2025/01/17/c...
"He now breaks clearly with the mos maiorum and plans to take his law directly to the people against the advice of the Senate. Octavius is obviously a problem – he’ll veto anything Tiberius Gracchus tries to do – so Tiberius Gracchus introduces a law to depose Octavius from office. The Roman Republic doesn’t have anything like impeachment, there is no framework to remove someone from office. Instead, the way the Republic works is that all of the offices are held for short duration (one year) and while tribunes and office holders with imperium are immune from prosecution while in office, they can be prosecuted the moment they leave office for any crimes they committed. There is no framework for booting out a tribune like this; the remedy in the customary Roman system is to make sure the next year you elect tribunes who support the idea and try to pass it then. But that remedy doesn’t work for Tiberius Gracchus.

So Tiberius Gracchus passes the law deposing Octavius and then has him dragged from the speaker’s platform (the rostra) and now we have a problem. Because of course Octavius’ supporters are going to view this law itself as illegal and invalid: tribunes are, you will recall sacrosanct, so it’s not clear they can be deposed and it is very clear they cannot be assaulted or dragged. Violating the sacrosanctity of a tribune is, at least notionally, a capital offense and a severe violation of religion...Of course, Tiberius is also a tribune, so you can’t attack him now, but once his year is done, you are probably planning to haul him in to court and let a jury decide if what he did was legal or not.

In any case, with Octavius removed, Tiberius passes his land reform bill. The law provided for a three-man commission to handle the assessment of what public land was held in excess and then to hand it out. Tiberius Gracchus names as those commissioners himself, his brother and his father-in-law...
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Please read the whole thing! Required climate action ALSO includes A LOT of messing with agriculture/forestry - and though not *required required*, every billion invested into international climate finance is likely to be far more effective, geopolitically speaking, vs it going into weapon systems.
"The government’s emissions reductions targets for the buildings sector are not aligned with the Paris Agreement. Due to limited federal measures to regulate building energy use and emissions, the decarbonisation of the sector will likely heavily rely on electrification. Without further efforts to reduce building envelope energy use and emissions, this dependency will put increasing pressure on the power sector and its decarbonisation.

The agriculture sector lacks a clear decarbonisation objective and, while the IRA allocates funding to boost conservation programmes, the act’s measures do not seem to meaningfully reduce sectoral emissions and even include funding for livestock production. The US has neither developed or implemented any regulations to address emissions from animal production, nor has it meaningfully encouraged dietary change. Such demand-side changes could result in large mitigation impacts in the US, which has one of the highest rates of meat and dairy consumption in the world.

Net forest sinks are threatened by land conversion, increasing demand for timber products, and more frequent natural disturbances from climate change. The IRA increased funding for the National Forest Service and other programmes that support the preservation of carbon sinks and nature-based climate mitigation activities, but logging efforts are nevertheless set to increase.

Aside from strengthening its sectoral policies and targets and reducing fossil fuel exploitation and exportation, the US should address gaps in its international climate contributions:

    Increase international climate finance contributions and cease funding fossil fuels abroad. The Biden Administration is still far from reaching its pledge of USD 11.4bn/year. In FY2023, only USD 1bn was appropriated for climate finance by the US Congress. The US also broke its commitment to stop financing fossil fuels abroad when the American EXIM lent USD 100m to Indonesia to expand an oil refinery in May 2023."
000
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
So, since it's currently at ~3%, where does the extra 1-2% come from in this scenario, and what would it actually be doing? I.e. in hindsight, pretty sure the Actually Existing Cold War spending could have been considerably lower, since a lot of it just ended up flattening Southeast Asia.
"CBO: U.S. Federal spending and revenue components for fiscal year 2024"

In 2024, total outlays accounted to 23.4% of GDP. Of those, ~3% is defense, 3.3% is discretionary non-defense spending (veterans' benefits, transportation, education, "certain health programs", "certain income security programs", etc.), 5% is the mandatory social security spending, ~3% is Medicare, 2.1% is Medicaid, 1.3% is income security (SNAP, foster care,etc.) and 2.6% in "other mandatory spending" (apparently mostly to do with federal employees' retirement benefits). Net interest had also amounted to 3.1% of GDP.

In contrast, total revenues were at 17.1%, with 8.4% from individual income taxes, 5.9% from payroll taxes, 1.8% from corporate income taxes, and 0.9% from other (estate taxes, excise taxes, customs duties, etc.)

Perhaps most notably - net interest payments would have already grown substantially as a fraction of GDP by now - they were at 3.1% when they amounted to $881 billion, but they now exceed a trillion annually.
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Careful; some say you are doing "political blood libel"! "“What we are exposed to, Israel has suffered thousands of times from terrorist groups, such as Hamas and other factions that Israeli citizens know well,” Youssef Ezzat, an advisor to RSF commander...Daglo told Israel’s Kan broadcaster."
"Israeli artillery seen with RSF forces
The possession of advanced weaponry heightens concerns about its potential for future acts of violence.
by Kazim Abdul

October 7, 2023 - Updated on April 30, 2024
in Missile & artillery Systems	

Video footage has emerged of Israeli-made LAR-160 light artillery rockets being used by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan against the Sudanese army. The RSF is a paramilitary force that is at war with the Sudanese government.

The LAR-160 is a 160mm caliber multiple rocket launcher that can fire up to 26 rockets at a time. It has a range of up to 45 kilometers and can be used to attack a variety of targets, including infantry, armor, and artillery."
030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I did mention the long tail of sea level rise in other threads! It is VERY long, though; ice sheets literally melt over millennia. I.e. West Antarctica is almost certainly doomed already, but by 2500 we *probably* won't lose much more than Thwaites and Pine Island. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping...
Large and extensive table of global tipping point characteristics. Can be read by following the link.
110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Imprecise quote. "That level [30 ⁠billion metric tons] of [energy-related CO2] emissions in 2050 implies global temperatures could rise between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius" - doesn't say by WHEN. On the IPCC graph, 30 gigatons from energy (+ half as much from land) is the middle line = ~2.7C in 2100
A line chart of how the annual CO2 emissions are projected to change across five IPCC scenarios - taken from the Summary for Policymakers of the first instalment of the sixth Assessment Report, published in 2021. We are currently believed to be following the middle line.
110
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
(Admittedly, not all of them are saying that about climate change - "Camp of the Saints"-style fantasies are also in there, as are other causes. The plurality does, though - particularly the young.) Either way, are you going to pay attention now, and consider how all that fits into your theories?
A table showing that in basically every country, age is inversely correlated with the belief in civilizational collapse, with under-35s generally at the highest level of belief (going as far as 83% in Italy!) and over-65s the lowest. (Though in Italy and France, the majorities of over-65 anticipate civilizational collapse as well, at 59% and 62%.)


(France is also the main exception to the linear trend, as there it's the 35s-64s who believe in civilizational collapse the most, and the under-35s are slightly more optimistic than over-65s - but their level of belief is still at 59%.)
020
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Will, I have been telling you since LAST YEAR that you REALLY ought to consider how a French poll from just BEFORE Covid found that out of the US, the UK, France, Italy and Germany, only the latter DIDN'T have a majority saying "global civilization" is likely to collapse (usually "within 20 years").
A bar graph from that French poll. According to it, 35% of the French, 29% of the Italians, 22% of the Germans, 19% of the Americans and 18% of the British said that they anticipate a collapse within 20 years. (And a comparable fraction in each country anticipates that it would happen in "30 to 50 years".)
250
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
To be fair, that is...an extreme position. Compare and contrast with this paper which looks at a world of about 6C in 2500 (projecting that a climate policy causing ~3.5C by 2100 will end up with that much by then). It's not remotely fun, but it's really not extinction either.
Predictions of where monthly Universal Thermal Climate index would exceed 38 C (currently only seen in the hottest deserts) by 2100, 2200 and 2500 under the optimistic, realistic and pessimistic (worse than present-day trends) climate scenarios. India gets those conditions for around a month by 2100 under the stronger two scenarios, and China's coast does not get there until 2200-2500.
041
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Wait, to clarify - don't those "inference margins" imply model operation itself (sans training) is profitable now? www.forbes.com/sites/peterc... (Though, not sure it comports with whatever the index below is meant to measure; token costs "collapsed"....to ruinously unprofitable late-2025 levels?)
"Model providers serving consumers suffer lower margins than business-focused companies. OpenAI, at roughly $25 billion of annualized revenue, is estimated to run about a 33% gross margin — dragged down by consumer ChatGPT, which charges a monthly rate regardless of how much is consumed.

Anthropic — which gets about 80% of its $30 billion run-rate from enterprise use — saw inference margins climb from 38% to over 70% during 2026 due to the popularity of Claude Code, according to SemiAnalysis"
030
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Thought-provoking 🧵 (I.e. got me wondering if the toll in Hiroshima could have been a lot smaller if there had been a subway...which led to me learning their tram network restarted operations 3 DAYS after the bomb - AND that these two are still kept in service!) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshi...
Caption of this Wikipedia image: "Hiroden cars 651 and 652, which both survived the atomic bomb.[1] As of June 2025 both cars are still in service."
020
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
What do you have against Nathalie Emmanuel?!
Still from the IMBD promotional video "Nathalie Emmanuel: More Than Just Missandei".
010
YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Did Putin also make a Jordanian militant invade Dagestan at the same time and tell the media the bombings are great? Do you even know there was a practically identical bombing of a military family housing in Dagestan a week earlier, and another one in Rostov? web.archive.org/web/20201021...
"Russian/Eng/Nat

Islamic rebel leader threatened on Sunday to unleash a campaign of terror against Russia.

He made these threats while speaking to reporters in his hide-out in the mountains of Chechnya.

A Jordanian born warlord that goes by the name of 'Khattab' commanded a several thousand-strong invasion force of Islamist rebels into neighbouring Dagestan a few weeks ago is aiming to create a pure Islamic state.

His reasons for the move were clear and simple.

SOUNDBITE: (Arabic)

"Russian troops are committing genocide against muslims in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Bosnia. We came here to protect our brothers in faith.

SUPERCAPTION: Khattab, Rebel leader

In the past days, as Russian troops took over the rebel's strongholds in Dagestan, Khattab ordered his troops to retreat to Chechnya.

From there he warned that from now on his groups will carry out terrorist acts in the heart of Russia.

SOUNDBITE: (Arabic)

"Even the Israelis are no committing the crimes against Muslims on the scale of the Russians in Dagestan. All the world is witnessing the genocide that is going on in Dagestan. There is no other choice than to fight."

SUPERCAPTION: Khattab, Rebel leader

Khattab endorsed a powerful explosion that destroyed an apartment building in Moscow on Wednesday killing at least 98 people and injuring hundreds.

SOUNDBITE: (Russian)

"From now on we will not only fight against Russian fighter jets, tanks and such. From now on they will get our bombs everywhere! Let Russia await our explosions blasting through their cities! I swear we will do it!"

SUPERCAPTION: Khattab, Rebel leader

But he stopped short of claiming responsibility for it.

Russian investigators say the most probable cause of the explosion was a bomb with the equivalent power of at least 200 kilograms of TNT ."
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YARDCG @yardcg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I mean...THIS is what so much of the American public believed in the gatekeeper era. Is this what we are being nostalgic for? www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ghos... Moreover, this is a notable point. 🔽
"Despite the overwhelming evidence that Calley had personally killed numerous civilians, a survey found that nearly four out of five Americans disagreed with his guilty verdict. His name became a rallying cry on both the right and the left. Hawks said Calley had been simply doing his job. Doves said Calley had taken the fall for the generals and politicians who’d dragged America into a disastrous and immoral conflict. In newspaper articles around the world, one word became entwined with Calley’s name: scapegoat.

Within three months of the verdict, the White House received more than 300,000 letters and telegrams, almost all in support of the convicted soldier. Calley himself received 10,000 letters and packages a day. His military defense counsel, Maj. Kenneth Raby, who spent 19 months working on the court-martial, told me Calley received so much mail that he had to be moved to a ground-floor apartment at Fort Benning where the deliveries didn’t have to be carried up the stairs."

Text just outside the screenshot: "Some of Calley’s supporters went to great lengths. Two musicians from Muscle Shoals, Alabama, released a recording called “The Battle Hymn of Lt. Calley,” which included the line, “There’s no other way to wage a war.” It sold more than a million copies. Digger O’Dell, a professional showman based in Columbus, Georgia, buried himself alive for 79 days in a used-car lot. Passersby could drop a coin into a tube that led down to O’Dell’s “grave,” with the proceeds going toward a fund for Calley...Indiana Gov. Edgar Whitcomb ordered the state’s flags to fly at half-staff. Gov. John Bell Williams of Mississippi said his state was “about ready to secede from the Union” over the Calley verdict. Gov. Jimmy Carter, the future president, urged his fellow Georgians to “honor the flag as Rusty had done.” Local leaders across the country demanded that President Nixon pardon Calley."
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