Sign in

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

@yarbatman.bsky.social
2.8K followers 313 following 360 posts

I invest in developing economies and study how sanctions are reshaping West Asia and the world. CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. Adjunct Prof at Johns Hopkins SAIS.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Daniel Denvir @danieldenvir.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
A monstrously comprehensive nearly three hour long episode of @thedigradio.bsky.social examining the economic warfare dimensions of the US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s asymmetric response with Aslı Bâli, @yarbatman.bsky.social, and Nicholas Mulder. www.thedigradio.com/podcast/econ...
thedigradio.com
Economic Warfare w/ Aslı Bâli, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Nicholas Mulder
Featuring Aslı Bâli, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, and Nicholas Mulder on the economic warfare unfolding with the US-Israeli war on Iran—and beyond.
411654
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Sune Engel Rasmussen @suneengel.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Interesting piece by @yarbatman.bsky.social who does the math on the Iranian Shahed-136 drones. He concludes the production cost of one Shahed is not $35,000, as is often cited, but roughly $7,000. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
0105
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Geoffrey Hughes @geofffhughes.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Come for the discussion trying to get to the bottom of how much an Iranian drone costs to make and stay for the discussion of how the sanctions regime has fostered a massive and surprisingly nimble domestic manufacturing base in Iran:
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
14023
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Phenomenal World @phenomenalworld.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
“The US and Israel have tried to try to make the conduct of war too ‘expensive’ for Iran. As this war of choice engulfs the region and the global economy, it is imperative to understand how ‘cheap’ a war can now be.” @yarbatman.bsky.social on the Shahed-136 www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
085
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Phenomenal World @phenomenalworld.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
The Shahed-136 is a cheap weapon. But it’s much cheaper than most reports suggest. In this new analysis, @yarbatman.bsky.social compares production costs in the US and Iran to come up with a better estimate for the cost of a Shahed: $7,000. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
094
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Politics Theory Other @poltheoryother.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Fascinating piece in @phenomenalworld.bsky.social by @yarbatman.bsky.social on the actual production costs of the Shahed-136:
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
02411
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Marcelo Rinesi @marcelorinesi.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I don't think it's quite right to say that the Shahed-136 is the AK-47 of states, but it's the analogy that came to my mind when reading this. By @yarbatman.bsky.social via @adamtooze.bsky.social
phenomenalworld.org
Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone
023
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 05/03/2026
The war is jeopardizing the massive flow of energy and goods passing through the Gulf economies.
foreignpolicy.com
The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy
The fallout from conflict in the Gulf will be much bigger than just oil.
11810
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
American Prestige @amprestigepod.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Special - War in the Gulf and the Global Economy w/ @yarbatman.bsky.social Derek speaks with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj about the economic effects of the Iran war. Available for all listeners now! Link in the replies.
174
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
James Ryan @jdryan08.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
More great analysis on Iran’s economy from @yarbatman.bsky.social.
bourseandbazaar.org
What Iran Needs is a New Social Revolution — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Alongside their political rights, Iranians are demanding economic opportunity and social dignity.
1113
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Grand Continent @grandcontinent.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Après plus de trois ans de sanctions, l’effondrement industriel russe n’a pas eu lieu. En ciblant les usines ennemies, l'Ukraine «sanctionne par drones» — seule manière de déjouer la cannibalisation industrielle. @yarbatman.bsky.social explique cette résilience. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/11/2...
legrandcontinent.eu
Russie : les sanctions n’ont pas détruit l’industrie de Poutine
Après plus de trois ans de sanctions contre Moscou, il faut se rendre à l’évidence : l’effondrement de l’industrie russe n’a pas eu lieu. En frappant les usines sur le territoire ennemi, l'Ukraine p...
052
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Thanks for the kind words!
030
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Arang Keshavarzian @keshavarziana.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
This is by far the most thoughtful discussion about the failed diplomacy around Iran’s nuclear program. Reflective and careful, unlike so much of the hot air, vibes, and guess work we are offered. Thanks @yarbatman.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com
Why Sanctions on Iran 'Snapped Back'
Podcast Episode · The Sanctions Age · S2, E10 Bonus · 1h 15m
151
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
American Prestige @amprestigepod.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Bonus - The Death of the Iran Deal w/ @yarbatman.bsky.social Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is back on the show with Derek to break down how the Iran nuclear deal broke down, and where things go from here. Link below ⤵️
171
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
'[Iran] was moving in a better direction, pushed and pulled by 90 million souls yearning for greater security, prosperity and liberty ... Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people.' - @yarbatman.bsky.social
theguardian.com
The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Something was shifting in Iran, but now missiles and the return of foreign interference may tear up the green shoots of progress, says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundatio...
1176
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Ishaan Tharoor @ishaantharoor.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Something was shifting in Iran, but now missiles and the return of foreign interference may tear up the green shoots of progress, says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundatio...
196
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
"Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people. They did not want this war and they were pushing their leaders to avoid it." Important read from my friend @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Something was shifting in Iran, but now missiles and the return of foreign interference may tear up the green shoots of progress, says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundatio...
1159
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Hafsa Halawa @hafsahalawa.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
It’s neither far fetched nor conspiratorial to consider that ultimately, *this* is the underlying reason Netanyahu chose to strike now: The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Something was shifting in Iran, but now missiles and the return of foreign interference may tear up the green shoots of progress, says Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundatio...
1176
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
This is a great piece from @veenaa.bsky.social on the prospects for civil nuclear cooperation between the US and Iran. For a new US-Iran deal to be transformative, it will require the two sides to find areas for deep technical cooperation, like nuclear energy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/22/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Could Iranian Nukes Be a Business Opportunity for the U.S.?
The Iranian foreign minister dangles U.S. investment in reactors as a win-win.
192
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Spoke to @sgreports.bsky.social about why Iran’s leaders are pursuing nuclear talks even if they believe they can “resist” Trump’s maximum pressure. It’s the pace of development that matters. Under sanctions, Iran is being left behind by its regional peers. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
On streets of Tehran, Iranians describe daily struggles and cautious hopes
Washington Post interviews with people across Tehran offered a rare window into the lives and economic frustrations of the country’s urban middle class.
1112
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action. This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods. This one big step could make a big difference.
182
Reposted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Anna Jordanova @jordanovaan.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Many thanks to @boursebazaar.bsky.social ( @yarbatman.bsky.social and Henna Moussavi) for publishing!
032
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Trump’s promise to lift sanctions gave Syrians hope for relief in a dire economy. But lifting sanctions is just the first step towards rebuilding Syria. As Nancy Ezzeddine writes, policymakers must see sanctions relief as “an entry point, not an end point.” www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
Sanctions Relief Won't Suffice for Syria’s Teetering Economy — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
To rebuild Syria’s broken economy, Western policymakers must treat the moment of sanctions relief as an entry point, not an endpoint.
150
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
Bill Luers was a fundamentally optimistic diplomat and I admired him for it. He once told me that optimism is what kept him in his profession "for so many decades." It is also what drove his remarkable work on US-Iran relations. He will be missed. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/11/u...
nytimes.com
William H. Luers, Diplomat Who Backed Czech Dissident Leader, Dies at 95
093
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
As the Taliban tries to attract foreign investment, it's pitching Afghanistan as a regional transit hub. In this analysis for @boursebazaar.bsky.social, Nargiza Umarova looks at the range of road and rail projects being pursued by Afghanistan's neighbors. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
Afghan Authorities Accelerate Push for Road and Rail Projects — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
As the Taliban government pursues an assertive policy to enhance Afghanistan’s logistical infrastructure, interest in the country’s role as a southern transit hub is gaining momentum across West Asia.
161
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
My thoughts on how the US and Iran can make deeper economic relations a cornerstone of a new nuclear deal. Iran presents a unique opportunity for Trump. It is a major economy with which the US could run large and persistent trade surpluses. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
How Trump Can Strike Gold for America in Iran — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Trump loves gold. If he remains pragmatic and focused when it comes to Iran, he could strike gold in several ways.
141
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Iran is a uniquely large and open market for American exporters—perhaps the last major economy in the world where the US could reasonably overtake China as an industrial partner. My reflections on how a new nuclear deal can be a *business* deal for Trump: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
How Trump Can Strike Gold for America in Iran — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Trump loves gold. If he remains pragmatic and focused when it comes to Iran, he could strike gold in several ways.
050
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Iraq's Sudani met with Syria's al-Sharaa today. The meeting marks the latest step as Iraq begins to adjust its Syria policy, cautiously extending a hand to the new leadership in Damascus. Francesco Schiavi details the factors shaping Iraq's Syria policy. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
Iraq Begins to Adjust to Syria’s Post-Assad Reality — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Iraqi leaders must assess if their new Syrian counterparts can be reliable partners and whether deeper political and economic cooperation can be pursued.
031
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about… The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...
071
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Last month, @boursebazaar.bsky.social convened Syrian civil society actors, sanctions experts, and European officials for an important workshop. In this piece, my colleague Nancy Ezzeddine explains what was discussed and why Syria must remain a priority. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...
bourseandbazaar.org
Prospects for Syrian Civil Society Remain Dim While Sanctions Linger — Bourse & Bazaar Foundation
Without tangible sanctions relief, Syrian civil society organisations will struggle to play a meaningful role in the country’s constitutional reform, local governance, or transitional justice efforts.
071
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the US-Iran talks. I explained that Iran is looking at recent moves by the US administration, such as the critical minerals deal pushed on Ukraine, and recognizing that Trump wants a business deal, not just a nuclear deal. www.newsweek.com/iran-leader-...
newsweek.com
Iran leader open to US investment in win for Trump
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says that American "investors are welcome to invest in our country."
051
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back! I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou. Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes. www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...
020
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
When the Iranian FM describes Iran's economy as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for US companies, he's cribbing from a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report. MGI concluded Iran had "the potential to add $1 trillion to GDP and create 9 million jobs by 2035." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Iran’s foreign minister: The ball is in America’s court
Iran is ready for indirect negotiations with the United States. A solution to the crisis is within reach.
031
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Until recently, everyone was concerned about the unrivaled US capacity to wage economic war, but a minority of countries were targeted. Now Trump is waging economic war on everyone. The global response to US economic coercion is no longer limited by a collective action problem.
093
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter. In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales. From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...
2206
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
25. Doing so allows China to focus on the real and tangible bounds of domestic industry, developing technologies and supply chains that augment its hard power. The US has confused money with capital. The money may stay American. The capital will be Chinese.
000
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
24. If the US wishes to limit the domain of economic competition with China to the imaginary and intangible bounds of global finance, focusing on currencies and reserves, China will abide.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
23. That's not an outcome China wants! So it makes sense for China slow roll de-dollarization, lulling the US into a false sense of security. They will tinker with anti-dollar policies, but will remain enmeshed in the global dollar system to give the impression of containment.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
22. Were China to more assiduously pursue anti-dollar policies, and if these policies led to a weakening of the global position of the dollar, it might actually jolt US officials out of their self-delusion that they can "beat" China with economic weapons.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
21. Even so, US officials remain convinced of the power and efficacy of their economic weapons, in part because the US dollar remains dominant... Even China continues to buy US treasuries and use the dollar in its foreign trade.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
20. Meanwhile, no US admin appears capable of pursuing true industrial policy because of the short-term thinking inherent to US electoral politics (tyranny of the term limit) and the financialized economy (tyranny of the financial quarter). No five year development plans here!
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
19. On the other hand, the US is adopting protectionist policies to try and bolster US industry. These policies are undermining US global leadership and even straining relations with allies.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
18. US officials are certainly worried about Chinese industrial capacity and innovation, but their response is pretty ideal for China. On one hand, the US is doubling down on export controls, which are proving ineffective at stopping Chinese innovation.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
17. Reason #3: US policymakers still think their economic weapons are working. This is exactly what China wants. The national security establishment in the US remains blindly committed to economic coercion.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
16. Plus, the factories that produce ships, cars, drones, and semiconductors can produce real weapons. For China, the choice between industrial power and financial power is an easy one. China is making huge strides in its industrial capacity and technological sophistication.
110
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
15. Sure, China understands that the dominance of the dollar gives the US extraordinary extraterritorial power, instrumentalizing ties between global banks. But China sees its industrial policy developing a corollary to that power, through complex and attenuated supply chains.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
14. China wants to be the country that can build the most ships, the most cars, the most drones, the most semiconductors, and the most advanced versions of all of these technologies, even if it means other countries use dollars to buy Chinese goods.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
13. Chinese authorities could pour more resources in developing anti-dollar policies, but this would essentially require moving towards a more financialized economy. Such a shift is inconsistent with China's use of industrial policy as a flywheel for hard power.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
12. Reason #2: China is focused on developing its power in what it considers the "real economy." When it comes to the real economy, US export controls have failed to slow the pace of Chinese innovation.
100
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
11. These experiences have showed that there is limited US resolve to pursue economic warfare. Trump's latest tariffs may mark a new extreme, but already there is growing domestic discontent about the costs of those policies. China will let the US test its own limits of resolve.
100