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The threat is not over on Wednesday. This atmospheric setup ushers this highly anomalous moisture plume into the Northern Plains on Thursday, then into the Upper Midwest on Friday. Here are the latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks & precipitation forecast for Friday (7/7).

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The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks contain a Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) in central AZ & the Sacramento Mnts , with a Slight Risk up to Utah & southwest CO. Residents & folks outdoors & should ensure they have a reliable way to receive flash flood warnings. (6/7)

The result is significant rainfall over portions of AZ & NM that are containing highly saturated soils after multiple days worth of rainfall. These soils are not able to hold much of any additional rainfall, thus exacerbating the flash flood potential. (5/7)

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At jet stream level, by Wednesday evening the right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak will generate exceptional upper-level divergence (vectors pointing outward from AZ) at the same time as these other ingredients are in place. (4/7)

The previous loop also showed 700mb winds, which when utilizing NAEFS, shows meridional winds (N-S oriented) that are above the 99th climatological percentile and aimed at portions of the southern Rockies. Ideal for upslope-enhanced rainfall rates in the San Juan Mountains. (3/7)

These disturbances are escorting copious amounts of tropical moisture northward into an arid & rugged section of the country. The 12Z ECMWF showed precipitable water values that would be the highest observed in the ERA5 database between 1979-2021. (2/7)

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A highly anomalous weather pattern is likely to result in significant rainfall, first in the Southwest today, but then into the Midwest late week. First, a couple upper-level disturbances near Baja will approach the Southwest today, bringing a concentrated source of lift. (1/7)

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

A Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) is in place for south-central Arizona & the Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico today. A Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) is also in place as far north as eastern Utah & southwest Colorado. Scattered to numerous cases of flash flooding are likely.

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The emerging 850mb low is fostering an area of low-level frontogenesis area from eastern PA to the NYC metro. As rich low-level moisture is brought north, it will reach an inflection point on the low's northern flank. Thus the concern for a swath of very heavy rain this evening.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

7 years in the NWS and at WPC today. Looking forward to many more years to come!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Not liking trends on the latest HRRR. Colliding outflows between the DC/Baltimore will trigger strong storms. The area upwind of northern MD (northern WV) was a prime area of training & that same signal could be prevalent as far east as the northern DelMarVa. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC Met Watch

Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Well… not much to be said besides this will be yet another generational flooding event over the TX Hill Country… well over 20+ inches in spots and much more rain is expected through tomorrow, exacerbating catastrophic conditions.

NWS Weather Prediction Center graphic for South-Central Texas Extreme Rainfall. Preliminary observations and rainfall estimates valid Monday (7/13) to Thursday (7/16). Plot on the left is a map of south-central Texas with rainfall totals overlaid in color contours with dark brown and purples indicating greater than 15 to 20 inches of rain. Selected preliminary rain reports include:

Knippa, TX 6 miles NW: 26.59”
Uvalde, TX 10 miles NNE: 21.76”
Kerrville, TX 3 miles NW: 19.48”
Kickapoo Caverns State Park, TX: 16.02”

And more.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Updated Day 1 High Risk had a small expansion a little farther N&W, but not too much change. More rounds of storms expected overnight tonight and into Friday AM.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Latest MPD: Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized additional 3-6" totals still possible. This will result in flash flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the Hill Country." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC Met Watch

Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

The overnight WPC crew upgraded today's Day 1 ERO to a High Risk amid the ongoing catastrophic flooding. Per the Day 1 discussion, "Areas of slow-moving, heavy rainfall are expected to continue beyond 12Z, exacerbating the catastrophic impacts that unfolded across portions of the region overnight."

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

"The river gauge at Center Point has risen 32 feet in 4 hours and is expected to reach a crest similar to July 4, 2025 catastrophic river flood."

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 14/07/2026

Portions of the TX Hill Country witnessed torrential rainfall last night that will continue to unfold through midday. Several counties and have already seen reports of numerous flooded roadways and water rescues. Monitor the latest at weather.gov, and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid from 16Z Tuesday, July 14, 2026, through 12Z Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Risk levels shown are green = marginal risk, yellow = slight risk, red = moderate risk, and magenta = high risk for flash flooding. A high risk area is centered over south Texas near the lower Rio Grande Valley, surrounded by a larger moderate risk region and a broad slight risk extending eastward across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana. Additional slight risk areas are highlighted over portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and along the South Carolina and Georgia coast near Charleston and Savannah. Marginal risk areas extend across much of the Gulf Coast, Southeast, Southwest, northern Rockies, and parts of New England.

National Weather Service infographic titled "High Risk Days are a BIG DEAL." The graphic explains that Weather Prediction Center High Risk excessive rainfall outlooks are issued on only about 4% of days but account for a disproportionate share of flood impacts. A pie chart shows that High Risk days account for 36% of all flood-related fatalities, while Moderate Risk days account for an additional 21%. A second pie chart shows that High Risk days account for 80% of all flood-related damages, with Moderate Risk days accounting for another 6%. Statistics cover 2010 through 2022 and include flood, flash flood, heavy rain, and debris flow events while excluding the 2014 Oso, Washington landslide event.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Two High Risks were issued in central TX on dayshift. One for the remainder of today and the other for Wednesday. Overnight flooding is likely. Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

I will be on the dayshift Excessive Rainfall Outlook at WPC the next few days. TX is the focus, but no shortage of flash flood potential from the Sothwest to the Southeast today. Even some pockets of Marginals in MT & New England.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

A High Risk was issued this morning for the Central Gulf Coast. High Risks are not issued lightly & indicate the potential for both widespread & life-threatening flash flooding.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

SPC upgraded to a Moderate Risk in northern IL & northern IN, while this moisture-loaded system also poses a flash flood threat, highlighted in WPC's Slight Risk. It is bound to be an active & potentially dangerous day in the Midwest. Have a reliable means for receiving warnings!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

A dynamic setup on Wednesday with low pressure that is among the lowest observed in the 1979-2021 ERA5 database will overlap with a remarkably strong jet stream aloft, robust low-level jet, & powerful IVT to produce a combination of severe & hydro impacts in the Midwest.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

WPC has initiates Key Messages for the impending heat wave over the eastern half of the U.S..

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Today's heavy snow discussion marks the end of WPC's winter weather desk being staffed for the 2025-26 cold season. Just in time for the conclusion of the Central Rockies winter storm! What a season it was in the East. The desk will resume being fully staffed in late September.

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 01/05/2026

We are now hiring early-career meteorologists at most offices across the country! Through an improved, streamlined hiring process, eligible candidates will be entered into pools to be continually considered for vacancies. Interested? Here’s what you need to know: (1/3)

NOAA’s National Weather Service: We Are Hiring! Meteorologist GS-5/7/9 early career positions at Weather Forecast Offices across the nation! Closing September 30. Apply early to increase your chances. See all current openings: https://www.usajobs.gov/Search/Results?k=national%20weather%20service&a=CM54&p=1

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Probably some of the best sundogs I have ever seen.

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...Long Island & into southern New England. Even if totals in lesser amounts come to fruition, strong winds producing whiteout conditions will still cause widespread disruptions. A tough forecast for many. Greatest uncertainty? West of I-95 from northern VA to south-central PA.

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...with at least 600ft in elevation to work with. DC/Baltimore metro areas & closer to the coast will rely heavily on rates during the day & where bands of the developing coastal low occur. That is what is most unclear in these areas. Jackpot likely to be southern/coastal NJ...

...Northeast MD on north & east. Toughest areas are northern VA, northern MD, & southern PA where they are caught in between the transitioning coastal, & maybe half of the available QPF falls during the day Sunday. That favors elevated areas in these locations. ridge lines...

AM thoughts before 12Z guidance comes in- it is possible we never see guidance come into agreement on a uniform solution. Frankly, it is rare that happens anyway. The meteorology says a rapidly deepening mid-upper low off the coast favors areas along & east of I-95 especially...

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Rare late day update to the Key Messages as new guidance continues to trickle in. Confidence is increasing in a highly impactful winter storm Sunday into Monday along the Northeast coast with disruptive snowfall as far inland as the western suburbs of I-95.

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WPC has initiated Key Messages for this impending Nor'easter. While confidence in a storm system have increased, exact details on amounts & resulting impacts remain highly subjected to storm track. Continue to follow WPC's and your local WFO's forecast for the latest.

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I expect some measurable snow in the Mid-Atlantic with areas east of I-95 favored for the heaviest snowfall, as well as N&W of the 500mb low (eastern PA). Think the WSSI-P Minor probabilities (24hr probs 12Z Sun - 12Z Mon, noting that for southern New Englanders) show that well.

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...there is agreement on a 500mb negatively-tilted axis. There's a reason these storms don't happen every winter. Negative tilted storms are hard to come by. Inverted troughs can overperform, but I'd rather be under the deformation axis for heavier snow, & that is still in ?.

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Summary-- I am not sold on how much snow falls. We are not at the final solution & it may be another 24 hours until we have a really good clue. However, given the evolution on these systems, I would anticipate a snow-hole somewhere between the Apps & east of I-95 unless...

The past 5 EC-AIFS ensemble runs have been coming in stronger, but lingering spread in how these vorticity maxima behave remains. There are still quite a few members with snow only via the inverted trough, & some with little at all. It speaks to the lingering volatility.

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Speaking for the DC/Baltimore area- I would rather have that closed 500mb contour either closer to the NC/VA border, or in the GFS case if it is not fully closed, to be negatively titled. In this case, it is still working towards both by 00Z Mon when the storm is already offshore

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Spread in the past 5 EC-AIFS ENS runs has steadily decreased. But where there is lingering spread, it largely comes down to phasing & 500mb trough position & tilt. There is also lingering spread south of Nova Scotia, hinting at ongoing differences in wave separation & confluence.

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An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.

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I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

This is why there remains such exceptional spread in position & intensity of the storm location. Over the last 24 hours, the only thing that increased in confidence is there is likely to be a strong coastal low. Beaches are likely to take a pounding. Otherwise, a lot of ?s remain

Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.

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That TPV is a huge deal. I am also wondering if the anomalously warm Gulf and Southeast Atlantic warm waters play any sort of role in terms of higher heights than what is currently being modeled. Lots of questions, not many answers at the moment.

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