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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Texas Storm Chasers @texasstormchasers.com · 27/09/2026

9/27 3:30PM: WPC has already issued highlights for potential heavy rain on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday across Texas. Monday night into Tuesday night still favors the western third of Texas.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

A highly anomalous weather pattern is likely to result in significant rainfall, first in the Southwest today, but then into the Midwest late week. First, a couple upper-level disturbances near Baja will approach the Southwest today, bringing a concentrated source of lift. (1/7)

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

A Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) is in place for south-central Arizona & the Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico today. A Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) is also in place as far north as eastern Utah & southwest Colorado. Scattered to numerous cases of flash flooding are likely.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

The emerging 850mb low is fostering an area of low-level frontogenesis area from eastern PA to the NYC metro. As rich low-level moisture is brought north, it will reach an inflection point on the low's northern flank. Thus the concern for a swath of very heavy rain this evening.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

7 years in the NWS and at WPC today. Looking forward to many more years to come!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Not liking trends on the latest HRRR. Colliding outflows between the DC/Baltimore will trigger strong storms. The area upwind of northern MD (northern WV) was a prime area of training & that same signal could be prevalent as far east as the northern DelMarVa. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC Met Watch

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Well… not much to be said besides this will be yet another generational flooding event over the TX Hill Country… well over 20+ inches in spots and much more rain is expected through tomorrow, exacerbating catastrophic conditions.

NWS Weather Prediction Center graphic for South-Central Texas Extreme Rainfall. Preliminary observations and rainfall estimates valid Monday (7/13) to Thursday (7/16). Plot on the left is a map of south-central Texas with rainfall totals overlaid in color contours with dark brown and purples indicating greater than 15 to 20 inches of rain. Selected preliminary rain reports include:

Knippa, TX 6 miles NW: 26.59”
Uvalde, TX 10 miles NNE: 21.76”
Kerrville, TX 3 miles NW: 19.48”
Kickapoo Caverns State Park, TX: 16.02”

And more.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Updated Day 1 High Risk had a small expansion a little farther N&W, but not too much change. More rounds of storms expected overnight tonight and into Friday AM.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Latest MPD: Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible with localized additional 3-6" totals still possible. This will result in flash flooding and broaden the overall areal coverage of significant flooding that is ongoing to the east and northeast through the Hill Country." www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC Met Watch

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

The overnight WPC crew upgraded today's Day 1 ERO to a High Risk amid the ongoing catastrophic flooding. Per the Day 1 discussion, "Areas of slow-moving, heavy rainfall are expected to continue beyond 12Z, exacerbating the catastrophic impacts that unfolded across portions of the region overnight."

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

"The river gauge at Center Point has risen 32 feet in 4 hours and is expected to reach a crest similar to July 4, 2025 catastrophic river flood."

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 14/07/2026

Portions of the TX Hill Country witnessed torrential rainfall last night that will continue to unfold through midday. Several counties and have already seen reports of numerous flooded roadways and water rescues. Monitor the latest at weather.gov, and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid from 16Z Tuesday, July 14, 2026, through 12Z Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Risk levels shown are green = marginal risk, yellow = slight risk, red = moderate risk, and magenta = high risk for flash flooding. A high risk area is centered over south Texas near the lower Rio Grande Valley, surrounded by a larger moderate risk region and a broad slight risk extending eastward across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana. Additional slight risk areas are highlighted over portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and along the South Carolina and Georgia coast near Charleston and Savannah. Marginal risk areas extend across much of the Gulf Coast, Southeast, Southwest, northern Rockies, and parts of New England.

National Weather Service infographic titled "High Risk Days are a BIG DEAL." The graphic explains that Weather Prediction Center High Risk excessive rainfall outlooks are issued on only about 4% of days but account for a disproportionate share of flood impacts. A pie chart shows that High Risk days account for 36% of all flood-related fatalities, while Moderate Risk days account for an additional 21%. A second pie chart shows that High Risk days account for 80% of all flood-related damages, with Moderate Risk days accounting for another 6%. Statistics cover 2010 through 2022 and include flood, flash flood, heavy rain, and debris flow events while excluding the 2014 Oso, Washington landslide event.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Two High Risks were issued in central TX on dayshift. One for the remainder of today and the other for Wednesday. Overnight flooding is likely. Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

I will be on the dayshift Excessive Rainfall Outlook at WPC the next few days. TX is the focus, but no shortage of flash flood potential from the Sothwest to the Southeast today. Even some pockets of Marginals in MT & New England.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

A High Risk was issued this morning for the Central Gulf Coast. High Risks are not issued lightly & indicate the potential for both widespread & life-threatening flash flooding.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

A dynamic setup on Wednesday with low pressure that is among the lowest observed in the 1979-2021 ERA5 database will overlap with a remarkably strong jet stream aloft, robust low-level jet, & powerful IVT to produce a combination of severe & hydro impacts in the Midwest.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

WPC has initiates Key Messages for the impending heat wave over the eastern half of the U.S..

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Today's heavy snow discussion marks the end of WPC's winter weather desk being staffed for the 2025-26 cold season. Just in time for the conclusion of the Central Rockies winter storm! What a season it was in the East. The desk will resume being fully staffed in late September.

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 01/05/2026

We are now hiring early-career meteorologists at most offices across the country! Through an improved, streamlined hiring process, eligible candidates will be entered into pools to be continually considered for vacancies. Interested? Here’s what you need to know: (1/3)

NOAA’s National Weather Service: We Are Hiring! Meteorologist GS-5/7/9 early career positions at Weather Forecast Offices across the nation! Closing September 30. Apply early to increase your chances. See all current openings: https://www.usajobs.gov/Search/Results?k=national%20weather%20service&a=CM54&p=1

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Probably some of the best sundogs I have ever seen.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

AM thoughts before 12Z guidance comes in- it is possible we never see guidance come into agreement on a uniform solution. Frankly, it is rare that happens anyway. The meteorology says a rapidly deepening mid-upper low off the coast favors areas along & east of I-95 especially...

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Rare late day update to the Key Messages as new guidance continues to trickle in. Confidence is increasing in a highly impactful winter storm Sunday into Monday along the Northeast coast with disruptive snowfall as far inland as the western suburbs of I-95.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

WPC has initiated Key Messages for this impending Nor'easter. While confidence in a storm system have increased, exact details on amounts & resulting impacts remain highly subjected to storm track. Continue to follow WPC's and your local WFO's forecast for the latest.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Spread in the past 5 EC-AIFS ENS runs has steadily decreased. But where there is lingering spread, it largely comes down to phasing & 500mb trough position & tilt. There is also lingering spread south of Nova Scotia, hinting at ongoing differences in wave separation & confluence.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?" Exhibit A--

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

WPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

For those in the NYC market-- I will be interviewed on Fox 5 at 7:15PM about the impending winter storm.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

As Euro ensembles gradually come into better agreement on their swath of heaviest snow, the Euro EFI becomes very useful. It tells us how unusual & extreme a specific weather variable can be based on thousands of reforecasts over a 5-week period centered on that day.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Good morning! Here are the newest Key Messages posted this morning.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

WSO probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding each forecast office's warning criteria are at least 50% from central New Mexico to Long Island. That is one large >80% area from central KY to The Jersey Shore too. Snow will fall, lots of snow, over a large swath of the country.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

For the Northeast, there remains notable spread in the deepening shortwave in the Midwest & the southwest trough for Sunday. Plus lingering uncertainty in the strength/position of the confluent flow over the Northeast. Placement of the heaviest snow/ice, p-type, & timing are still subject to change.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Here are the latest Key Messages for the impending winter storm and the dangerous cold.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Good morning! Here were the latest Key Messages issued eqrly this morning. Increasing area of at least 50% chances for Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel & to some infrastructure) from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic & Carolinas.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

We initiated Key Messages for the impending winter storm late week and the extreme cold. Here they are--

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

It is going to be quite the 5 days on shift at WPC.

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

Decided to do a preview for next week's winter storm potential (not just Northeast, just the setup). Season-to-date, a strong 500mb ridge over the Four Corners & southern High Plains has effectively killed Gulf moisture, illustrated by the northerly 850mb meridional flow anomalies.

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Reposted by Peter Mullinax

Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

The National Weather Service will host an onsite hiring event at the upcoming AMS Student Conference in Houston

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Peter Mullinax @wxmvpete.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

There are plenty of weather highlights in the lead up to Christmas & shortly thereafter for the CONUS, but wanted to give a shoutout to Fairbanks, AK which has been absurdly cold even by their lofty standards. Idc who you are, -35F for a high & -43F for a low on Sunday is brutal.

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