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William Nomikos

@wnomikos.bsky.social
4.5K followers 438 following 488 posts

peacebuilding, climate change and conflict, domestic politics and foreign policy || Assistant Professor of Political Science @UCSB || williamgnomikos.com || Previously @Yale @WashU

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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
SO thrilled that my paper on UN Peacekeeping Operations as climate change adaptation with Patrick Hunnicutt is out in this month's issue of Environment and Security: doi.org/10.1177/2753...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Oof! Credited in the Substack post! If only blue sky had an edit button...
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
This is great analysis of why getting into the diplomatic weeds really matters, from @wnomikos.bsky.social.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I learned from the best :-)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Shout out to my peacekeeping students and @profsaunders.bsky.social for one of my favorite policy ideas to come out of the Trump era: successful diplomacy requires eating spinach.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
On the eve of US - Iran negotiations in Switzerland, I wrote up some thoughts on why it's hard to make peace.
open.substack.com
Is Iran Winning the Peace?
Thoughts on the challenges of negotiating a peace
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
static.klipy.com
Tyrese Haliburton Choke Gesture
ALT: Tyrese Haliburton Choke Gesture
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I'm a Pacers fan who has shared the Haliburton choking meme with several friends over the last week but I feel terrible for the Knicks fans that Trump is going to Game 3. Just terrible.
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Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed. Here's what the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveal about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel. Read the latest from @wnomikos.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/malis-p...
goodauthority.org
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed
What the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveals about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
I wrote about the armed group attacks in Mali for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/malis-p...
goodauthority.org
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed
What the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveals about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Well, this is why you work tirelessly for years on cultivating alliances and building support for even the tiniest military operation.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This is such a fun position.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
As with any Trump admin policy—what is the policy goal here? Phrased another way: if the Trump objective was total and absolute region-wide chaos, would you have done anything differently? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...
nytimes.com
Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
1) Long and vague timeline for operation (Iraq originally also was supposed to last mere weeks) 2) No real end goal, off ramp, or exit strategy at all. This seems like a maximalist war aim war preventively launched at a regime willing to do anything to hold on. @nytimes.com
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
I think this war is an illegal disaster that will just lead to needless deaths but I really, really hope I am wrong and that the future is bright and peaceful for Iranians.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
If the US is at war and under attack, will NATO invoke Article V? Seems pretty clear that it should be in case of war. Perhaps this explains Canada PM’s statement of support? But this is also not a legal war according to domestic or international law so what are NATO allies’ legal obligations?
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
In retrospect, the fact that they tried to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War was a pretty clear sign. This is not a subtle administration.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
I had forgotten! But surely ORHA and CPA was in the works well ahead of time, no? Not sure what’s going on with Venezuela but seems much less involved. I wonder what will happen if Rodriguez pushes back on US. Will Trump follow through on threat. Would he do regime change to ensure access to oil?
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Rubio seems to indicate that there will be some regime change but not sure what the “transition plan” that will include opposition parties will look like. Can’t imagine Rodriguez will be thrilled. The more they say, the more questions I have. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...
nytimes.com
Venezuela Live Updates: U.S. Forces Seize Two Tankers; Rubio Lays Out Plan for Venezuela
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
I thought this was great and very informative. The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
newyorker.com
The Maduro Regime Without Maduro
A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
I thought this was great and very informative. The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
newyorker.com
The Maduro Regime Without Maduro
A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Great point—and I have no idea what the relationship is between the military and the new civilian leadership. I also do not totally understand structure of popular preferences in Venezuela. All of these will shape likelihood of collaboration with the imperial power. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu
Nationalism, Collaboration, and Resistance: France under Nazi Occupation
Abstract. Does nationalism produce resistance to foreign military occupation? The existing literature suggests that it does. Nationalism, however, also can lead to acquiescence and even to active coll...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Agreed! So not entirely clear that FIRC research applies, right? I’m working out thoughts in real time but I think @jeffcolgan.bsky.social is right to frame as return to imperialism. Also agree with @dhnexon.bsky.social bringing in Lake indirect rule book here. goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...
goodauthority.org
Trump made a clear choice: return to petro-imperialism
Trump made a clear choice: return to petro-imperialism. To understand what just happened in Venezuela, look at oil politics and U.S. foreign policy.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Absolutely—for FIRCs. Is this a FIRC? What’s a comparison case? It’s not Panama or even Libya. Is literally anyone in the regime besides Maduro different? So many of the mechanisms rely on things like the military turning on the new regime or the bureaucracy being nonexistent.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
I’m thinking of Reo Matzuzaki’s book and specifically his discussion of Japan in Taiwan. What if Venezuelan elites (military and gov) collaborate? www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
cornellpress.cornell.edu
Statebuilding by Imposition by Reo Matsuzaki | Hardcover | Cornell University Press
How do modern states emerge from the turmoil of undergoverned spaces? This is the question Reo Matsuzaki ponders in Statebuilding by Imposition. Comparing Taiwan and the Philippines under the colonial...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali
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Christopher Clary @claryc.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Mali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...
goodauthority.org
The Islamist siege in Mali, explained
A closer look at the current Malian instability, and the limits of international peacebuilding.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
🎧 Interview with @yangyangzhou.bsky.social and @alanjacobs.bsky.social on @scopeconditions.bsky.social: www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/how... 📺 Recording of book talk at @stanfordcisac.bsky.social with introduction by Steve Stedman: youtu.be/IPbFKR_eEco?...
scopeconditionspodcast.com
EPISODE 3.5: How the UN Keeps Peace Among Neighbors, with William G. Nomikos — Scope Conditions Podcast
Today on Scope Conditions, what’s the secret to successful peacekeeping? We often think of civil conflict as being driven by organized, armed groups – like rebel militias and state armies. But as our...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
📕 Local Peace, International Builders is available OPEN ACCESS for download @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org: doi.org/10.1017/9781... ➡️ The supplemental book website is here: www.williamgnomikos.com/local-peace
doi.org
Local Peace, International Builders
Cambridge Core - UN and International Organisations - Local Peace, International Builders
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award! The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book. 👇 Access links
William Nomikos, author of Local Peace, International Builders, holding a copy of the book and a plaque for the APSA Experiments Section Best Book Award.
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Graeme Blair @graemeblair.com · 01/12/2025
New data release from the Deportation Data Project: Every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention nationwide between September 1, 2023 and October 15, 2025. deportationdata.org/news/2025-12...
deportationdata.org
Deportation Data Project
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
“It feels illegal.”
media.tenor.com
a woman in a red shirt is looking at another woman
ALT: a woman in a red shirt is looking at another woman
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie with the word the in orange
ALT: a man in a suit and tie with the word the in orange
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
I have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Very clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Good luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear. Keep it up everyone!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Gelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Just casually dropping in people like Lina Khan as transition co-chair. I think Mamdani isn’t listening to the people who said he can’t/won’t do the things he talked about. Looks like he’ll try!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
In case you were wondering what the US was doing 👇
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Thinking of all my Malian friends and colleagues right now. (5/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
It really doesn’t have to be this way—I just wrapped up a two-year field project on social trust in Bamako and the experience was so encouraging for the future of building interethnic communities in Mali. This is a resilient group of people. (4/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
But for one reason or another—domestic politics, funding cuts, international politics, misinformation, and geopolitics among them—the international community invested in the wrong interventions, didn’t invest in the right ones, or both. So now we are here. (3/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
The international community truly failed the people of Mali. There were important interventions and programs in Mali that really worked and made people’s lives better. I have three chapters in my book about some of them! (2/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The big question for me is what percentage of Trump voters in 2024 did or did not vote for the Republican in this election. The question is more about non-voters who stayed home rather than voters that chose an alternative candidate. Does anyone have that data?
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 05/11/2025
Mamdani: "We can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves. After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him."
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