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William Nomikos

@wnomikos.bsky.social
4.5K followers 438 following 488 posts

peacebuilding, climate change and conflict, domestic politics and foreign policy || Assistant Professor of Political Science @UCSB || williamgnomikos.com || Previously @Yale @WashU

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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
SO thrilled that my paper on UN Peacekeeping Operations as climate change adaptation with Patrick Hunnicutt is out in this month's issue of Environment and Security: doi.org/10.1177/2753...
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
This is great analysis of why getting into the diplomatic weeds really matters, from @wnomikos.bsky.social.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
On the eve of US - Iran negotiations in Switzerland, I wrote up some thoughts on why it's hard to make peace.
open.substack.com
Is Iran Winning the Peace?
Thoughts on the challenges of negotiating a peace
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I'm a Pacers fan who has shared the Haliburton choking meme with several friends over the last week but I feel terrible for the Knicks fans that Trump is going to Game 3. Just terrible.
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Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed. Here's what the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveal about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel. Read the latest from @wnomikos.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/malis-p...
goodauthority.org
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed
What the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveals about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
I wrote about the armed group attacks in Mali for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/malis-p...
goodauthority.org
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed
What the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveals about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Well, this is why you work tirelessly for years on cultivating alliances and building support for even the tiniest military operation.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
This is such a fun position.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
As with any Trump admin policy—what is the policy goal here? Phrased another way: if the Trump objective was total and absolute region-wide chaos, would you have done anything differently? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...
nytimes.com
Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
1) Long and vague timeline for operation (Iraq originally also was supposed to last mere weeks) 2) No real end goal, off ramp, or exit strategy at all. This seems like a maximalist war aim war preventively launched at a regime willing to do anything to hold on. @nytimes.com
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
I think this war is an illegal disaster that will just lead to needless deaths but I really, really hope I am wrong and that the future is bright and peaceful for Iranians.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
If the US is at war and under attack, will NATO invoke Article V? Seems pretty clear that it should be in case of war. Perhaps this explains Canada PM’s statement of support? But this is also not a legal war according to domestic or international law so what are NATO allies’ legal obligations?
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
In retrospect, the fact that they tried to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War was a pretty clear sign. This is not a subtle administration.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
I thought this was great and very informative. The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
newyorker.com
The Maduro Regime Without Maduro
A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali
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Christopher Clary @claryc.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Mali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...
goodauthority.org
The Islamist siege in Mali, explained
A closer look at the current Malian instability, and the limits of international peacebuilding.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award! The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book. 👇 Access links
William Nomikos, author of Local Peace, International Builders, holding a copy of the book and a plaque for the APSA Experiments Section Best Book Award.
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Graeme Blair @graemeblair.com · 01/12/2025
New data release from the Deportation Data Project: Every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention nationwide between September 1, 2023 and October 15, 2025. deportationdata.org/news/2025-12...
deportationdata.org
Deportation Data Project
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
“It feels illegal.”
media.tenor.com
a woman in a red shirt is looking at another woman
ALT: a woman in a red shirt is looking at another woman
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie with the word the in orange
ALT: a man in a suit and tie with the word the in orange
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
I have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Very clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Good luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear. Keep it up everyone!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Gelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Just casually dropping in people like Lina Khan as transition co-chair. I think Mamdani isn’t listening to the people who said he can’t/won’t do the things he talked about. Looks like he’ll try!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The big question for me is what percentage of Trump voters in 2024 did or did not vote for the Republican in this election. The question is more about non-voters who stayed home rather than voters that chose an alternative candidate. Does anyone have that data?
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 05/11/2025
Mamdani: "We can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves. After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him."
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
I’m just so happy to see so many different Americans in the greatest city in the world being so excited about politics. POLITICS!!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
McPherson does a good job contextualizing Trump/Venezuela but headline writer should probably not use “unprecedented.” From the piece itself: “From 1915 to 1934, for example, the U.S. invaded and then occupied Haiti and may have killed as many as 11,500 people.” And that’s just one example!
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Ultimately the difference between Dems and GOP is that when the Dems got power in the 21st century, they passed huge and important policy bills instead of making institutional changes that would lock them in power for the next quarter century. Probably a little short-sighted in retrospect.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
Wait what’s happening?
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
For all my Santa Barbara-based connections: here is a great place to go this week to donate, volunteer, and just help out as the Federal government chooses to cut SNAP benefits: foodbanksbc.org
foodbanksbc.org
Home | FoodBank
Welcome to the Foodbank of Santa Barbara County. Our mission is to transform hunger into health with fresh produce, nutritious groceries and nutrition education for all, from pre-schoolers to older ad...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
They just don't care about democracy or accountability or anything like it.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
This is an open call for starting a civil war. It’s a little weird he is on TV saying this, as if there isn’t an internal mechanism by which he can inform ICE.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
I think that’s right—Trump has shown that the constitution has failed in one of its critical goals: restraining a would-be king. The judicial and legislative branches and states seem relatively powerless against the power of a determined executive. Not sure what else is left.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Lost in the gold: Trump, donors, and friends (?!) paying for ballroom. What? Between this and suing the Justice Department, we are entering into some wild levels of corruption here.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
It’s a new international system. I hope we like it—this is what’s now there.
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Yvan Guichaoua @yguichaoua.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Sahel convos shifting quickly to the "day after" scenarios. After the fall of Bamako. Not a silly possibility anymore. Western capitals visibly don't care
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Big lead for Prop 50 in a new CBS/YouGov poll: 62% yes, 38% no. www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
I know time travel is technically impossible but pretty sure I just went back to 2010 after hearing the Björk/Dirty Projectors at the top of this excellent 60 songs episode on Vampire Weekend @harvilla.bsky.social open.spotify.com/episode/4aaX...
open.spotify.com
“A-Punk”—Vampire Weekend
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
The end of American democracy as we knew it is already here. It’s about clawing it back now.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
It’s just not fair at this stage. Wow Zohran.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Combined with growth in targeted violence from paramilitaries, our current moment beginning to look a lot like the end of the 19th century.
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William Nomikos @wnomikos.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Excited to talk about peacebuilding today. If you're around come join. If not, there is a Zoom option I believe.
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