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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 7h

Brownback endorsement might be the thing that seals the deal for Marshall losing

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 10h

There's several hundred thousand former students out there, we aren't all MAGA chuds

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 12h

Trevor Knight post shoulder injury?

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 13h

Honestly great call from the haters

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

So once again, unless I'm misunderstanding, the take-home appears to be "senate polls aren't biased because they track with these other polls that I'm assuming aren't also biased". Not trying to be combat or snarky!!!

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, this question doesn't seem to be addressed in the article? The analysis hinges on the assumption that the aggregate approval rating data (which is modeled from national polls) is accurate

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Do we think that approval rating polls and candidate polls have different biases/ sources of error/ non-response rates?

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Probably not directly comparable polling

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Hey @schnorkles.bsky.social should we doom about Maine or is polling just being weird

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Unfortunately Cape May County is a relatively small part of the CD, so even if he flips it and runs up decent numbers (which would already be a huge accomplishment), that's not nearly enough even compared to the 2025 Sherrill vote here

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

People are also mad about the huge Vineland data center, Van Drew is tied to that. Mullock is a good candidate , I'm not getting my hopes up but I think there's a chance

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Tired: keep the filibuster Wired: abolish the filibuster Inspired: win 60 seats

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Russell Moore makes a great point in "Losing Our Religion" that many Christian Nationalist types, if they were truly honest with themselves, really worship a pagan strength/ war god like Thor or Ares, but they subconsciously cloak that belief in Christian imagery

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Rowan mentioned!!!!!!!!!! I went to a game last year and felt like I was fully embracing the Sicko lifestyle

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Speaking as an Aggie - two year moratorium at least

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

You'll never guess the flaw in the "build the whole passing game out of Craver" plan!

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Kiffen is such a baby. No snap no flag there

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Do we think last year was "authentic Elko", this year, or somewhere in between?

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Exhibit Number 3,751 that Andy Kim is one of the best senators

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

No lie I would happily take a Yordan triple crown and give up eking out a division title and getting rocked in the wild card

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

A Waymo trying to navigate St Paul neighborhoods after 3 feet of snow sounds like hell

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Reposted by @windhover39.bsky.social

MPR News @mprnews.org · 22/09/2026

At a public hearing this week, the Minneapolis City Council will hear feedback on a proposed ordinance that would require a “human monitor” behind the wheel of autonomous vehicles.

mprnews.org

As Waymo test-driving continues, Minneapolis considers autonomous vehicle restrictions

Some council members want to require driverless taxi companies to have a human monitor in the driver’s seat, citing safety concerns and potential job loss for Uber and Lyft drivers.

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Sand is going to win this with Ossoff numbers

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Promoting Wiggins instead of plucking a mid-major OC was asinine

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Preemptively dreading how much Kiffen will enjoy next week

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Going back in time to 2008 and telling high school me that one day the standard for Aggie football will be a top 15 team and I'll be disappointed with just bowl eligible

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Honestly this is the game we deserve for having Hegseth on campus

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Feels like a mentality shift of "telling the story of this single book" rather than a true adaptation, and especially an adaptation that is coherent with the series. "Setting Julius Cesar or King Lear in modern day vibes", which can be done well, just a different thing

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

I joked to someone that 70% of the cadets are more mature than him. Obviously some morons that probably loved having him there (cough E1 Squadron 17 ect), but I assume by and large it was mostly indifference to annoyance

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Weirdly this post is somehow even blanker than the KS senate one @proptermalone.bsky.social

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I never understood why we assumed they'd maintain their offensive identity after Ben Johnson left - it was their whole thing and now it's in Chicago

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Polls are starting to look like @gelliottmorris.com should add a supermajority odds tracker to his model

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I genuinely wonder what percentage of voters pull the lever for him assuming he's Tom's son

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

But how else will people send a message about trans rights to the Senate candidate whose opponent is currently attacking him for being too pro-trans rights? I am a very smart and sincere political operator and not at all a Russian bot

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

My guess is this particular take is missing from the news cycle partially because there is no evidence to support it, but there is very possibly some research on this that I'm missing

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Sperate from the moral question of if it's right or wrong (which should be the first question) - is there any empirical evidence that this is true in a general election (Democratic primaries are a whole different question) or is this just something you feel should be true? Genuine question.

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Which is disappointing, because I feel like that's what also made Nate Silver hard to follow, and I had high hopes that Morris would be more data-driven

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Even so that's too big of a conclusion - for example, one can't disprove that Sand would be up by 10 if he took Turek's stance on immigration. I doubt that's true, but it's intellectually dishonest to try and isolate a single variable in a single race like this without the right dataset

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Unless there's something I'm missing, this looks like punditry, not data analysis.

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

How are you pulling out that particular variable, versus something like Sand's track record as State Auditor?

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Not that I'm out here to defend Barron, I just think dumping on empathy like this is bizarre so I'm curious if there's a knot he's twisted himself in. He's always struck me as more "anti-anti" that full-bore fascist

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I've seen that floating around here second hand, so I haven't engaged with it directly. But it seems to me like Barron is conflating of really sentimental sympathy with empathy. As opposed to Vance's mangling of ordo anoris to crap on charity, which seems like the harder fascist line

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

This seems right. I was taught that there is an important distinction between"sympathy" and "empathy", and it seems to me like he's gesturing more at an extreme version of sympathy

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Is this partially a weird semantic thing, where he (probably from Twitter brain) means "avoiding hurting people's feelings" when he says empathy?

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windhover39.bsky.social @windhover39.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Especially for things like generic ballot, where a ton of organizations of varying quality are constantly putting out polls, it's only really worth tracking movement in a high-quality average fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

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