iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by @webberweather.bsky.social

Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

New ENSO plot! There's now a scatterplot comparing Niño 3.4 (or RONI) to the ENSO Longitude Index. Good way to tell how east- or west-based it is! So far given an ELI slightly more east than 1997 with similar RONI, it would imply that 2026 is similarly or even more east-based

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

This El Niño event is making the last few strong ones (2015-16 & 2023-24) look like mere child's play. Only 1997-98 holds a candle to this one in the modern era.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Even utilizing the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), the NINO 3.4 region SSTa this year are only being rivaled by the 1997-98 "El Niño of the Century". Our developing "Super" El Niño has exhibited the most remarkable build-up of SSTa since the beginning of the year in the entire satellite era.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

I've updated the Ensemble Oceanic Nino Index (ENS ONI) Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) ENS ONI value of +0.97C was the 9th highest in AMJ since 1850, indicative of a strong El Niño via ranks The latest monthly ENS ONI value of +1.45C is the highest on record for June www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oce...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

How do our low-level zonal wind anomalies over the Indo-Pacific the past few months compare to the onset years of every El Niño since 1950? Almost a perfect match overall. The westerly low-level wind anomalies deep in the Warm Pool are doing a lot of damage already to our current La Nina state

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

The mean Indo-Pacific Warm Pool last month looks similar to what preceded the 1982, 1997, 2006, 2014, & 2018 El Ninos The Warm Pool is plenty strong enough for El Niño later this year Note that 30C SSTs are centered ~160E & extend to nearly the dateline below the equator

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 29/12/2025

Euro weekly 7-day avg precip anomaly fcst for mid Jan (left) vs correlation b/t the CPC’s EP/NH index & OLRa (right) Note the Eq. Rossby Wave ~150-160E in the Eq. Pacific in both images, where 2 anomalous centers of convective heating straddle the equator. That’s usually how you get -EPO in winter

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 12/12/2025

NDJF N Pacific SLPa 1 year before El Nino (left) vs the Euro weekly forecast thru early Jan (right) This year has a classic negative N Pacific Oscillation (-NPO) pattern that often precedes El Nino events in the following calendar year See Vimont et al (2003): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

The ongoing MJO event in the West Pacific has led to a *gigantic* build-up of westerly momentum in the tropical troposphere, w/ GLAAM anomalies approaching 3 sigma! Very El Nino-like

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

TAO buoy subsurface animation for this past month Notice the thermocline is quickly deepening and the subsurface anomalies are beginning to advance eastward over the West-Central Equatorial Pacific.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

The thermocline in the West-Central Eq. Pacific is already responding to the Westerly Wind Burst event & -IOD collapse that occurred earlier this month in association w/ the MJO. A downwelling Kelvin Wave is forming over the West Pacific & will help eventually destroy La Nina in a few months or so.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Had to check myself into the ER last night with some nasty heart palpitations, felt like I was having a heart attack. 😣 Results came back negative fortunately & I feel better this morning w/ the occasional palpitation still Hopefully when I see the cardiologist they can diagnose the issue 🙏

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

The GEFS and Euro AIFS ensembles trying to give me some hope for snow in early December. Surely, this must be a trap.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

The low-level westerly wind burst in the pacific is what’s really driving the MJO into the Western Hemisphere (phase 8) in Dec (left) That to me is a very telling of how hard the atmosphere is pushing the ocean away from La Niña & possibly towards an El Niño state this coming spring or summer

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

The warmest water on the entire planet is sitting ~160E in the Equatorial Pacific & a prolonged Westerly Wind Burst event is about to occur here This will trigger a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave that should destroy La Niña ~3 months from now & begin moving the ocean towards El Niño conditions

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

We might be in a La Niña at the moment, but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño-like with a huge build-up of deep-layer westerly wind anomalies In the grand scheme of things, El Nino is likely knocking on the door 🚪

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

For all my S2S junkies out there, here’s another invaluable tool to add to your arsenal: An annual archive of polar cap geopotential height anomalies going back to 1940 using ERA-5 & a 30-year sliding climatology 👀 hebweather.net/prod/gph_arc...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

Cool study came out earlier this yr looking at the dynamical origins of the extreme 2023 Heatwave in the Desert SW They concluded that the warm Tropical Atlantic was the primary culprit The partial regression analysis (left) & AGCM forcing (right) are pretty telling www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

I still can’t get over how similar this year’s zonal wind anomalies in the tropics are to 1981

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Quietly while La Niña persists, the tropical upper troposphere is becoming very El Niño-like A large build-up of westerly momentum (+U) in the tropics is being supplanted by a West Pac MJO orbit & repeated bouts of positive E Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) fluxing/squeezing +U equatorward

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

The global tropics zonal wind anomalies this year are evolving very similarly to late 1981, which of course preceded a “Super” El Niño event in 1982 Note how this yr & 1981 have a big & slow westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent in Oct-Nov that moved into the Pacific in Dec

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

As you might expect from the very strong -IOD event strengthening La Nina’s footprint globally, this October’s observed pattern has deviated very little from the last 30 years worth of La Ninas over N America

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

The latest Euro weekly forecast thru mid-December is almost exactly what you’d expect for typical a La Niña December over the last 30 years: A faster-than-usual start to winter over the East-Central US with plenty of high-latitude blocking

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

La Niña is living on borrowed time. The extreme -IOD we're currently seeing (right) is about to collapse because the warm water in the Equatorial Indian Ocean will get flushed into the tropical West Pac at depth over the next month in this MJO event's westerly wind burst (left)

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

This winter seems to be intent on following the cool ENSO/East QBO/solar max paradigm of early winter -AO/-NAO I replicated Gray et al (2004)'s analysis except used SLPa from 20CR & isolated -ENSO (left), which is close to the latest Euro weekly forecast (right) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

Worth mentioning, this year has the 2 main precursors to a -EPO/+TNH ("polar vortex" pattern) dominated winter in place atm as identified by Zhong & Wu (2023). Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & West Pac as well as a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Much like last year, the very warm Tropical Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is going to play a major role in this coming winter. Compare the current global mean SSTa (left) to the Oct-Nov Warm Pool SST [20S-20N, 90-150E] difference for east QBO/cool ENSO winters only (right)

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Reposted by @webberweather.bsky.social

Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa: ↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp ↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite ↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths ↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath ⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

One characteristic of Hurricane #Melissa that'll always stick w/ me is its lack of "classic" eyewall replacement cycles. I honestly can't help but think the environmental +SRH was a factor for that, as this modeling study from earlier this yr showed: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen. 188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Let's play a game of find where local sunset occurred over Hurricane #Melissa

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

After the conclusion of this hurricane season, we need to have a real, serious discussion about the utility and validity of sticking with standard reduction techniques for estimating sustained surface winds from flight level in really intense hurricanes.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

This latest dropsonde in Hurricane Melissa is mind boggling. 185 knot mean winds in the lowest 150m!!! This reduces to about 155 knots at the surface, a good bit higher than the current NHC estimate of 145 kt and actually very much in line with satellite consensus (SATCON)

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Even with all of the structural, intensity, and SST/OHC changes underneath Hurricane #Melissa the last few days, the diurnal cycle still remains undefeated and inevitable

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Holy mackerel, what a dropsonde…. This explicitly supports Melissa being a 145-150 knot hurricane 😳

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Melissa strengthened into a cat 5 hurricane overnight, w/ winds of ~160 mph & central pressure of 913mb. Even more strengthening is likely later today, which may put this storm in pretty rarified air historically for Atlantic hurricanes. Awful situation unfolding for much of Jamaica

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Reposted by @webberweather.bsky.social

EJD @firewxguy.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

This is probably the most tone deaf take I've seen from a professional on wxtwitter and social media more broadly speaking during a natural disaster. Not a good look.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Man tropical weenies are getting trolled hard tonight

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

A renewed bout of intensification is likely ongoing with Melissa as the central dense overcast continues to appreciably cool after sunset. Also noticing the development of an enveloped eyewall lightning (EEL) signature here, often a signature of a high end category 4 or 5 hurricane

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Imho, the structural & intensity changes we‘re currently seeing w/ #Melissa are largely tied to the diurnal cycle. Namely, a radially outward propagating gravity wave causes cloud tops to cool at large radii by the early morning, while the inner core warms. This is precisely what’s happening atm

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data from the current recon mission into Melissa shows that the vortex is vertically stacked up to 15 km w/ the upshear/NW quad being the strongest. This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

While Hurricane Melissa's environment at first glance doesn't seem too favorable for rapid intensification w/ 20-25+ knots of mid-level shear, there's lots of little subtleties here that argue otherwise. Namely: the northerly wind shear vector, deep-layer +SRH, weak inertial stability, & high SSTs.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

If #Melissa finds its way south-southwest of Jamaica in several days, this environment has the highest ceiling for any Atlantic tropical cyclone I can remember. Big, strong, slow-moving hurricanes like what #Melissa may become are when things like Oceanic Heat Content will start to matter a lot.

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

#Melissa has struggled w/ wind shear today & the vortex remains very tilted It's common for weak TCs like #Melissa to struggle in the Central Caribbean, an area of the Atlantic known as the Caribbean "Graveyard" Here's a mini-🧵 on what the Caribbean "Graveyard" is & why it matters here:

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Lol. We better hope that #Melissa doesn't take the western end of the track envelope over the Western Caribbean next week because uhhh yea 👀

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Invest #98L is steadily getting better organized over the SE Caribbean today. Fast low-level trade winds in the Caribbean "Graveyard" are the biggest impediment to development in the near-term. Once #98L gets to ~75W where the trade winds are slower, much more rapid development is likely

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 17/10/2025

It's still early, but the subsurface Equatorial Pacific temp anomalies atm look similar to yrs where La Nina transitioned to El Niño in the following spring/summer The thermocline isn't exceptionally shoaled in the E Pac & the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool has snuck across the dateline at depth

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

I still can’t get over how closely last winter’s mean pattern matched the warm Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) regression pattern in observations & climate model simulations in Kao et al (2024) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

Imho, the real wildcard for seasonal forecasts the next several months (esp late winter & spring) will be: how much does the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool expand eastward? An initially warm Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, east qbo, & pacific meridional mode all favor some +ENSO advancement next spring

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

Much like last winter, another +TNH dominated winter is likely staring us in the face thanks to La Niña & perhaps more importantly, a rather warm Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. It will likely have at least a slightly different flavor this time around though…

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