iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Alaska 0.0% of Ballots Cast: Actual 2024 Result: 🔴 Trump +13.1 Projected 2026 Electorate: 🔴 Trump +10.5

261

TONIGHT — California gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) will face off at 6pm PT in a one-on-one debate. The hourlong CNN debate in Los Angeles will be moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

1194

End of Quarter Net Trump Approval Q1 2025: 🔴 +2.1 Q2 2025: 🔴 +6.7 Q3 2025: 🔴 +10.0 Q4 2025: 🔴 +11.8 Q1 2026: 🔴 +16.0 Q2 2026: 🔴 +17.3 Q3 2026: 🔴 +23.3 Trump's net approval has decreased for seven quarters in a row.

8368

VoteHub U.S. House Forecast Outlook Democrats: 231 🔵 Solid: 200 🔵 Likely: 13 🔵 Lean: 14 🔵 Tilt: 4 Republicans: 203 🔴 Solid: 147 🔴 Likely: 31 🔴 Lean: 15 🔴 Tilt: 10 Tossup: 1 🟡 Tossup: 1

32410

VoteHub U.S. Senate Polling Averages: Democrats currently lead in enough states to flip six seats and hold a 53–46 Senate majority. Our forecast, however, remains more favorable to Republicans in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas among others because of underlying fundamentals.

42610

RACE RATING CHANGE: AZ-01 Lean D → Likely D Amish Shah’s chances of defeating Jay Feely have increased steadily in recent months. This would be a 🔴→🔵 flip.

26716

RACE RATING CHANGE: NM-02 Likely D → Solid D Gabe Vasquez’s chances of defeating Greg Cunningham have risen above 95% in our forecast.

1467

Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton (D) tells @ms.now he would only serve two terms if elected. He would be 74 at the end of a second term.

3444

RATINGS CHANGE — VoteHub's forecast moves the Ohio U.S. Senate race to Lean Democratic, giving Democrat Sherrod Brown a 66% chance of winning. Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024.

27713

9/29 Forecast Update Democrats continue to gain and have again hit all-time high in both chambers today. 🔵 U.S. Senate: 59.4% (+1.3% vs. last week) 🔵 U.S. House: 85.7% (+2.0% vs. last week)

3338

North Carolina 🌲 Early Votes As of Sep 29, 2026 Modeled 2024 presidential vote: 🔵 Harris – 66.9% (+41.2) 🔴 Trump – 25.7% ⚪ Other/new voters – 7.4%

1122

13% of Susan Collins supporters say they want Democrats to control the Senate, per NYT/PPH/Siena, underscoring her longstanding crossover support. Collins also has a history of outrunning polls: by 14 pts in 2020, 10 in 2014 and 8 in 2008. VoteHub currently rates Maine Tilt D.

3279

Ken Paxton pushes back on criticism over his handling of a child predator case: “The criticism has been that I let a child predator out [after serving] one day,” Paxton said. “Well, guess what? They served 60 days.”

8358

In VA-01, early voters so far are moderately bluer than in 2024 and slightly bluer than in 2025. Lower-propensity voters are coming from the bluest areas, an encouraging sign for Democrats beyond simply front-loading turnout. It’s still very early in the EV period.

05112

In our House forecast, Republicans winning the majority is as likely as Democrats winning 247 seats.

2303

Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton tells a forum of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council that data centers will be “a huge economic boon” for Texas, while suggesting rural areas are more appropriate locations for them. “There’s plenty of open space in Texas,” he said.

6189

In VA-02, Republicans are holding up better than elsewhere in VA. Our model shows an electorate similar to 2025, with lower turnout and a more Republican-leaning group of low-propensity voters than in VA-01 thus far. Still, lower propensity voters are from blue precincts.

292

GOP Rep. Tom Kean (NJ-07) says he is suing Gov. Mikie Sherrill for “failing to release the records of the over 6,600 illegal aliens here in NJ who were registered to vote." Kean faces an uphill re-election battle: VoteHub rates NJ-07 Likely D and a projected flip this November.

7281

Paul LePage (R) has a 66% chance of defeating Matt Dunlap (D) in our ME-02 House forecast. Trump won the district by 9.5 points in 2024. Our current estimated margin is LePage +3.2.

284

9/28 Forecast Update After a quiet weekend and Monday of polling, the forecast is little changed from last Monday. Polls were somewhat better for Democrats early last week and Republicans later in the week. 🔵 U.S. Senate: 57.3% (+1.6% vs. last week) 🔵 U.S. House: 84.7% (+1.8% vs. last week)

1226

Roy Cooper (D) leads Michael Whatley (R) by 8.9 points in our North Carolina Senate polling average, in a remarkably stable race. Cooper has cleared 50% in the average, leading 50.3% to 41.4%. That closely tracks our forecasted final margin of Cooper +8.7.

2184

In VA-05, early turnout has been heavily Democratic, especially among lower-propensity voters. That’s an encouraging sign for Democrats in this Lean R district, but it is important to remember it is still early in the Early Voting period.

0316

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is testing the waters for a potential 2028 Senate bid as she also weighs a presidential run, @axios.com reports. AOC is touring upstate New York, meeting with local officials and testing her appeal beyond New York City.

4487

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has a 57.4% chance of winning re-election over Aaron Ford (D) in our forecast. Looking at polls and fundamentals alone, Lombardo’s chances rise to 60%.

376

Florida 🍊 Governor Mail returns as of Sep 26, 2026 Modeled estimated votes so far: 🔵 David Jolly – 1,051 (67.7%) 🔴 Byron Donalds – 486 (31.3%) <1% of mail ballots requested have been cast; over 2M have been requested. We forecast a final contest margin of Donalds +6.4.

1183

Florida 🍊 U.S. Senate Mail returns as of Sep 26, 2026 Modeled estimated votes so far: 🔵 Angie Nixon – 1,021 (65.7%) 🔴 Ashley Moody – 517 (33.3%) <1% of mail ballots requested have been cast; over 2M have been requested. We forecast a final contest margin of Moody +9.7.

3256

In the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race, Chris Pappas (D) leads John E. Sununu (R) by 5.3 points in our polling average. Pappas has led all three polls conducted this month by margins of 5 to 8 points.

14010

Florida GOP gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds declines to support state limits on data center development, telling Fox News permitting decisions should remain at the local level. “We are not going to preempt local governments. We are not going to override local governments.”

3176

RACE RATING CHANGE: CA-06 Likely D → Solid D Richard Pan’s chances of defeating Kevin Kiley in the redrawn Sacramento-area CA-06 have risen above 95% in our forecast.

46715

The early 2028 Democratic presidential primary landscape has been remarkably consistent recently. Kamala Harris continues to lead the field by 11 pts, followed by Gavin Newsom. Jon Ossoff is the exception, approaching 10% after barely registering in the polling average in July.

6145

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) by 3.3 points in our Senate polling average. Rogers has led in just 1 of 9 polls conducted this month.

36313

President Trump says he will hold two Florida rallies with GOP gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, while pushing back on reports Donalds is distancing himself. Trump said Donalds would “lose” if voters believed he had “dropped” him.

9326

House Democrats are preparing a sweeping oversight agenda if they win control of the House, with investigations focused on Trump, his family, and his administration, per @apnews.com. Potential probes span several committees; Democrats say impeachment of Trump or Cabinet officials is on the table.

84915

SC-01, rated Tilt R in our forecast, is currently a 51–49 race between Jenny Honeycutt (R) and Nancy Lacore (D). Our demographic model shows Lacore dominating among Black voters by 78 points, while Honeycutt still wins white voters comfortably by 20 points.

2145

Wisconsin 🧀 Governor Mail requests as of Sep 25, 2026 Modeled margin if all returned: 🔵 David Crowley – 171,517 (62.4%) 🔴 Tom Tiffany – 100,550 (36.6%) ~10% of mail ballots requested have been cast. We forecast a final contest margin of Crowley +6.2.

33511

New Hampshire Governor Forecast: 🔴 Ayotte +10.9 Modeled vote if all absentees returned: 🔵 Cinde Warmington – 3,653 (54.8%) 🔴 Kelly Ayotte – 2,940 (44.1%) We expect Gov. Ayotte to win NH’s Election Day vote, which accounts for the vast majority of ballots cast, by double digits.

1134

Georgia 🍑 U.S. Senate Mail returns as of Sep 25, 2026 Estimated votes so far: 🔵 Jon Ossoff – 68 (67.3%) 🔴 Mike Collins – 32 (31.7%) About 93k ballots have been requested. We forecast a final contest margin of Ossoff +9.5.

3508

JD Vance’s favorability has barely moved since February. The vice president’s net favorability remains around -11 in our polling average, notably stronger than President Trump’s.

4161

VoteHub Gubernatorial Forecast Ratings 🔴 Lean R: FL, KS, TX 🔴 Tilt R: NV 🟡 Tossup: GA 🔵 Tilt D: OH 🔵 Lean D: AK, IA, WI All other states have ≥80% probability.

1214

Trump’s net favorability has fallen to an all-time low in our polling average, now sitting at -20.4.

1369

VoteHub U.S. Senate Forecast 47: NH – 88% 🔵 48: MI – 73% 🔵 49: ME – 64% 🔵 50: AK – 65% 🔵 51: OH – 63% 🔵 (Tipping Point) 52: TX – 63% 🔵 53: IA – 58% 🔴 54: KS – 76% 🔴 55: NE – 77% 🔴 56: SC – 86% 🔴

3297

The Trump administration is considering building a baseball park in Grand Teton National Park at the request of MLB, per @washingtonpost.com.

234228

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 93, says he is concerned about Rob Sand (D) becoming governor: “I don’t plan on dying in office, but if I did, I don’t want a Democrat governor choosing my successor.” VoteHub rates the Iowa governor’s race Lean D, with Sand at a 77% chance of winning.

5017128

FL-27 Forecast Breakdown by demographic: Hispanic voters: 🔴 R +19 White voters: 🔵 D +7 Estimated margin: 🔴 R +4

284

Alaska 🐟 U.S. Senate Mail requests as of Sep 25, 2026 Modeled margin if returned: 🔵 Mary Peltola – 16,156 (59.1%) 🔴 Dan Sullivan – 10,925 (39.9%) We forecast a final contest margin of Peltola +2.5.

1378