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Victor Shih

@vicshih.bsky.social
3.5K followers 1.3K following 344 posts

Director, 21st Century China Center at UCSD: elite politics, financial markets, debt….of China of course

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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
We are hiring postdocs! Essentially even though this is one announcement, we are looking for a LLM methods postdoc and a IR/IPE of China postdoc. Would love to have you join us for this 2+ yr position apol-recruit.ucsd.edu/JPF04412
apol-recruit.ucsd.edu
Postdoctoral Research Associate – 21st Century China Center
University of California, San Diego is hiring. Apply now!
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
MIIT's priority AI techs 2025 "complex reasoning models, embodied intelligence models, edge-side models; large-scale computing center, multi-cluster computing power scheduling and coordination, computing center energy consumption management 1/n
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Joseph Torigian @josephtorigian.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Best China Books of 2025 @chinabooksreview.com: great list with @emilyzfeng.bsky.social Dan Wang @evadou.bsky.social @patrickmcgee.bsky.social Barbara Demick and others. I just ordered the book by Minxin Pei. Huge thanks to @vicshih.bsky.social for including me chinabooksreview.com/2025/12/18/b...
chinabooksreview.com
Best China Books of 2025 | China Books Review
Identity issues. Migrant stories. Company profiles. Lost daughters. Daddy issues. Our annual round-up of notable books on or from China, nonfiction and literature, nominated by experts.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
So to understand why Zhang Shengmin was promoted despite being associated with some very corrupt people, I would read my book and this 1973 classic www.amazon.com/Chinese-High...
amazon.com
The Chinese High Command;: A History of Communist Military Politics, 1927-71 (Praeger Library of Chinese Affairs)
The Chinese High Command;: A History of Communist Military Politics, 1927-71 (Praeger Library of Chinese Affairs) [William W. Whitson, Chen-Hsia Huang, Lucian W. Pye] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Chinese High Command;: A History of Communist Military Politics, 1927-71 (Praeger Library of Chinese Affairs)
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
“免去李成钢的中华人民共和国常驻世界贸易组织代表、特命全权大使,兼常驻联合国日内瓦办事处和瑞士其他国际组织副代表职务” wait is he purged? Why? www.news.cn/20251020/f64...
news.cn
国家主席习近平任免驻外大使-新华网
国家主席习近平任免驻外大使-
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
China, India, U.S. are arguably the most dynamic ,impactful countries economically and geopolitically. We @21CenturyChina @GPSIndiaCenter are excited to host @tanvi_madan ,@d_jaishankar Evan Medeiros @SusanShirk1 for an indepth discussion. Join us! gps-ucsd.zohobackstage.com/ShiftingTria...
gps-ucsd.zohobackstage.com
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21st Century India Center @gpsindiacenter.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
🌍 Join us next week for an exciting virtual panel discussion with: @dhruvajaishankar.bsky.social, @tanvimadan.bsky.social, Evan Medeiros and Susan Shirk 💻 Moderators: @gpsucsd.bsky.social professors Achyuta Adhvaryu and @vicshih.bsky.social Register ➡️ gps-ucsd.zohobackstage.com/ShiftingTria...
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Well the suspected purge was made public today. It is still shocking because these were the trusted lieutenants Xi put in key positions. Whatever corruption they engaged in, it must have been very bad, or some other factor led to their fall www.mod.gov.cn/gfbw/qwfb/16...
mod.gov.cn
何卫东、苗华等9人严重违纪违法被开除党籍军籍 - 中华人民共和国国防部
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
We @ChinaDataLab and @UCIGCC launch med the China Policy Document Navigator, a first-of-its-kind database giving researchers curated access to thousands of hard-to-find Chinese policy documents. Learn how to use it and register here: chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog/chi...
chinadatalab.ucsd.edu
China’s Science & Technology Ecosystem, Made Searchable - China Data Lab
Viz Blog
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
How do promotion prospects drive patterns of repression in China? @baggottcarter, Jonghyuk Lee, and I find that the most promising officials hesitate to use repression for fear of backlash riots, except for in separatist regions www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.uchicago.edu
Who Represses? Career Incentives and the Geography of Repression in China | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Both sides are overplaying their hands? www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
wsj.com
Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on China, Citing Restrictions on Rare-Earth Elements
President Trump said there was “no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping after the country’s newest restrictions on rare-earth materials marked an escalation in trade negotiations.
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Neysun Mahboubi @neysunm.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Along with our Zhengfawei (soundcloud.com/user-8653541...) colleagues, I've enjoyed a fairly constant on and offline conversation with my friend @vicshih.bsky.social since February 2021, and so it was a delight to continue our chat before a terrific live audience at @fpri.bsky.social yesterday:
youtube.com
How Will Xi Handle the Succession Process?
YouTube video by Foreign Policy Research Institute
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
For folks interested in some speculations about leadership turnover in China, @NeysunM was kind enough to host this conversation @FPRI in Philly m.youtube.com/watch?v=xZ7B...
m.youtube.com
How Will Xi Handle the Succession Process?
YouTube video by Foreign Policy Research Institute
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Neysun Mahboubi @neysunm.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
4th term for Xi Jinping may be likely, but succession is inevitable. What can we glean from current signals & past practice about how that process might play out? I am looking forward to welcome my friend @vicshih.bsky.social to discuss these Qs @fpri.bsky.social on Tue: www.fpri.org/event/2025/h...
fpri.org
How Will Xi Handle the Succession Process? - FPRI Events
Xi Jinping has ruled China for well over a decade now, making him the longest serving official leader of China since Mao Zedong. As the prospect sharpens for
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Will read for sure
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Someone should do a survey experiment on whether and how these model workers still help bolster the party’s legitimacy. Quite a lot of effort is still expended to select and highlight them, like this model rail worker 车菲菲 zjnews.zjol.com.cn/zjnews/20220...
zjnews.zjol.com.cn
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Ok as of now, if you really rely on LLMs for close reading of government regulations, the interpretation will be mediocre to poor. I think Gemini is pretty good for Chinese material but even it misses many things which would be obvious to a trained human analyst
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The Wire China @thewirechina.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
The Wire China is currently seeking applications for a staff writer. Follow the link below to learn more about the position and how to apply.
buff.ly
Open Postions - The Wire China
The Wire China is Seeking Applications for a Staff Writer.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
A very sad day for China studies as we lose one of the great mentors of the field
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Alex Wang @greenlawchina.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Joanna Lewis, Sam Geall, Lauri Myllivirta, I and some others quoted in this Brook Larmer piece on China's global green-tech ambitions. This is part of the focus of my forthcoming book "Chinese Global Environmentalism," out later this year. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/m...
nytimes.com
What Will China’s Green-Tech Ambitions Cost the World?
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CONNECTED on TaiwanPlus @connectedtwplus.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
China’s once-booming property sector is in crisis. Prices are falling, developers are drowning in debt and millions of homes sit empty Political scientist Victor Shih (@vicshih.bsky.social) explains why China’s housing market has failed to recover. 📺 youtu.be/MAPkc1GxUNA
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
Trump unveils $100K yearly fee on H-1B visas in clampdown on legal immigration / lets dramatically slow down the flow of top stem talent into this country. That’s going to end well. And guess what, that will benefit all of our tech competitors
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Wow, the August issue of Contemporary International Relations, a CICIR journal, has an essay entitled "The End of the West" by CICIR vice director Zhang Jian. Provocative and what timing. The full text is on Ai Sixiang oss.aisixiang.com/download/0fe...
oss.aisixiang.com
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
I have had a few chats with @josephtorigian.bsky.social on his book but this one really turned out well and we addressed some core issues about the party and its history www.ncuscr.org/video/the-pa...
ncuscr.org
The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping
Through an examination of the life of Xi Zhongxun, Joseph Torigian sheds light on the power of the Chinese Communist Party and how it affects individuals at its highest levels.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
#APSA2025 if you still read books, you need to come to MacLeod’s Books
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
1/2 Yes, it's "locked in" only in the sense that if China doesn't dramatically change its domestic economy, and if the rest of the world continues absorbing its surpluses, Chinese surpluses will keep growing. They are "locked in" only to the same extent that Japanese trade surpluses in the late...
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Hong Kong: a comeback with Chinese characteristics / yes finance is doing well but you need tourism to come back to generate employment
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... / wait what? The price of labubu won’t go up forever??
bloomberg.com
Pop Mart Shares Fall on Demand Concern, Post-Index Entry Selling
Pop Mart International Group Ltd.’s shares tumbled, reflecting concerns over product demand for the Chinese toy maker and profit taking after the stock’s inclusion into two major indexes.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
You know i actually read an article today arguing that this large surplus is “locked in” for China. I don’t buy it at all b/c all China has to do is erase all export rebates and transfer proceeds to households directly. Of course trade surplus will not disappear but will shrink
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
If there is a unique technology that can extend life, the dictator can use it himself but deny it to other senior leaders. That may not be the optimal strategy though since it would increase incentive for a coup.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
You wouldn’t know it from Vancouver hotel prices 😂😂
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Wow great move by CAC to force AI providers to label generated content across all modes, even AI augmented content. We desperately need something similar here here (but will not get it of course) www.cac.gov.cn/2025-03/14/c...
cac.gov.cn
关于印发《人工智能生成合成内容标识办法》的通知_中央网络安全和信息化委员会办公室
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
What are members of congress saying about China? We @21CenturyChina @ChinaDataLab are documenting this in real time via their tweets. Check it out here (but be sure to click on the button with four horizontal lines on the top to get all the features) chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/tweets/
chinadatalab.ucsd.edu
Congressional Tweets on China - China Data Lab - UC San Diego
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
The problem in wages and benefits in China isn’t just what’s written on paper but also that workers have few legal recourse if employers renege on wage promises or do not pay for legally required benefits
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
What is a database of tongue images for? "通过前期采集的约一万个舌象数据"
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tim frye @timfrye.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Look forward to reading and - more importantly for you - to assigning it to my large lecture class on autocracy and democracy in the spring. Congratulations.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Wow I hadn’t realized how huge it was going to be
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Interesting that Russia and the CCP have lower level dialogues on cadre management and anti-corruption. The two political systems are quite different so I am not sure what they can learn from each other www.xinhuanet.com/world/202406...
xinhuanet.com
中共代表团访问俄罗斯-新华网
中共代表团访问俄罗斯-6月22日至26日,中组部副部长黄建发率中共代表团访问俄罗斯,会见俄总统助理米罗诺夫,同俄联邦总统国家公务、干部和反腐败局负责人工作会谈,会见俄共主席久加诺夫,考察俄政府培训机构、俄共媒体和地方党组织,深入宣介习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,就加强干部和党建领域经验交流、推动两国关系深入发展交换意见。
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
New @21CenturyChina note showing Trump tariffs decreasing real income of Americans in all but 3 states. Alaska, Pennsylvania and Indiana will see a yr or more of income growth wiped out. Removing tariffs will give most Americans 500-1k boost in real income chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog/tar...
chinadatalab.ucsd.edu
Tariffs and Wages: The Cost of Trump’s Trade War - China Data Lab
Viz Blog
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
In collaboration with colleague Marc Muendler, we @21CenturyChina are proud to present a note “TARIFFS AND WAGES” showing the harmful effect of tariffs on ordinary Americans. Those in Alaska, Pennsylvania and Indiana will lose a year or more of income growth chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog/tar...
chinadatalab.ucsd.edu
Tariffs and Wages: The Cost of Trump’s Trade War - China Data Lab
Viz Blog
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Actually really interesting
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Half a trillion RMB in reverse repo on one day is pretty massive. The monetary impact is potentially equivalent to 5% of gdp. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
China Boosts Short-Term Cash Injection as Bond Selloff Extends
China’s central bank added a substantial amount of cash into the financial system on Tuesday, in a move that’s seen stabilizing bonds that have come under pressure from investors migrating into equiti...
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
This is the Kotkin podcast we have thirsted for, brought to you by @bumingbai.net podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%...
podcasts.apple.com
Stephen Kotkin:从斯大林的大清洗看今天的习近平
Podcast Episode · 不明白播客 · 08/17/2025 · 2h 6m
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
Liu Jianchao, a senior Chinese diplomat widely seen as a potential foreign minister, has been taken away by authorities for questioning / another person who had impressed Xi … shows observed meritocracy doesn’t always work well, tho the reason may be complex
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
This gives me hope for US China relations since both countries now produce official statistics in the same way, continuing the convergence between the two governments
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
What is Congress and the White House doing about China? No worries the wonderful team @ncuscr.bsky.social is helping us keep track with this new substack ncuscr.substack.com/p/china-and-...
ncuscr.substack.com
China & the Hill: Trade Talks in Stockholm, U.S.-EU Counter China on Minerals, and China Pushes Global AI Governance
U.S.–China trade talks continue in Stockholm as Beijing unveils global AI governance ambitions
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Jeff Wasserstrom @jwassers.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Wow, another great month of events at JF Books in DC, if I lived there I’d definitely want to catch both the comparing gilded ages dialogue between @ewong.bsky.social & @eosnos.bsky.social & the Nan Z. Da talk about her King Lear book (recently published with one of the blurbs from me)
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Joseph Torigian @josephtorigian.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
New podcast: @hooverinstitution.bsky.social Bill Whalen talks to me about my book "The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping" for Matters of Policy and Politics www.hoover.org/research/fat...
hoover.org
Like Father, Like Son? Joseph Torigian On Chinese Governance, Xi Jinping’s Paternal Influence
Examining the origins of Xi Jinping’s thought and ruling style.
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Here is what I think: if all 3 reviewers think a paper is terrible or potentially generated by ChatGPT, the authors should be barred from submitting for 6 months to a year
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Victor Shih @vicshih.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Papers I reviewed today 1. A paper I think is generated by ChatGPT based on the superficial analysis also done by ChatGPT 2. A paper which intentionally or unintentionally omits a key fact which changes the interpretation of the result dramatically. Now I am depressed
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