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Văzdooh

@vazdooh.bsky.social
179 followers 42 following 3.2K posts

www.bbbeacon.com

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
If we somehow out-rotate a SPX correction once again, around end of next week it will be time to go long regardless of where price is.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 15/10/2026
Even though I had 2028 leaps, taking the opportunity to exit TLT for +25% here on the averaged down position. I expect we get a low retest to reenter. Yellow dotted line is previous ATL + 55 EMA in blue. Very strange to see yields popping this much on hot CPI/PPI and retail sales.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Thesis is the same. Bounce has been feeble and without meaningful improvements in breadth. We got a technical break in the AI trade. Both are bearish. Holdouts are MAGS & software. No one wants to commit either way before CPI, so likely nothing big happens until Wed. Have to wait and see.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Tomorrow we kick off earnings with $PEP. If the market's assumption is invalidated maybe we finally get that breadth recovery rally (still with market flatish since it would be rotation out of tech most likely).
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
10Y in 2015 started rallying in Feb, continued going higher for another month after stocks topped, and remained near highs for another month. By the time stocks hit the bottom in Feb 2016, yields were back were they started.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
New ATH with negative positioning breadth (delta), with bearish divergence trend and divergence vs previous high. No precedent for this, but the closest thing to it is 2015. www.bbbeacon.com/market-breadth - public page
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Market still likes Trmpism.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - October 4th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
$JHEQX JPM collar for Q4/26, expiring December 31st 8105C short 7290P long 6150P short
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Working again. I guess people were not happy with this change and it broke a lot of indicators 😂
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Nothing extra to add. Bounce in non tech still due and likely to happen. Ideally it plays out next week, then have to reevaluate the multi leg drop probability on Thu-Fri depending on how strong the rebound and breadth are.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
IWM was the only mandatory threshold. The rest are options and might not get them. Maybe something like IWM up - QQQ down for a day for it to happen, but pretty unlikely.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
$PEP as well. Capitulated last week into 2025 low demand zone and holding so far. Good chance for bottom in staples $XLP.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
$MCD capitulation
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - September 26th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The data feeding this one is no longer free, so it doesn't work anymore. Trading View saw everyone else enshittificating their products and took it as a challenge.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - September 20th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - September 14th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - September 3rd
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
There's also an election angle to this one. Clean energy dumped when Trump won, should surge if republicans lose
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Clean energy names look close to a big move, likely up. $ENPH as example but others look similar. $ICLN & $TAN ETFs as well. $XLU also looking like a hold on the horizontal level. I think we'll get a rotation from fossil fuel energy into clean & utilities. Probably nuclear related stuff as well.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Some of the semi names retraced their entire surge from May-June and look ready to have a short profit take rally. $ARM $GFS
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Since most long AI, short something (like software) trades have unwound, it looks increasingly probable that India is due a large catch up bounce. USDINR breaking down $INDA looks like an ascending triangle breakout build up
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - August 28th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - August 21st
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Liking $EWZ leaps here again. Commodity based country. $NU as top constituent and had an earnings pop. USD dumping again and should reflect in the BRL pairing soon. It dropped due to election risk (Oct 4th), but will resolve as vol crush regardless of who wins.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
I'll add another reason to this one. I've noticed a narrative building on twitter over the past few months, an AI driven "golden age of medicine". I can see this becoming the next AI trade as semis start underperforming. Price going up will do wonders and can see a 6-12 month boom cycle.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
A large contraction of the bearish equity thesis that I could never reconcile has been that is comes in sync with a bullish bonds thesis. Shouldn't a drop in yields be supportive of stocks? With today's treasury announcement we get to see what happens, and it will likely push stocks higher.
home.treasury.gov
Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End
Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9, 2026WASHINGTON, D.C. —The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date.###
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Got me looking at $PFE, and it's very very nice.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The most volatile market that goes nowhere. IMO continues until end of month. A small Mag7 rebound should be starting tomorrow for the next rotational theme.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - August 16th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Reposted by Văzdooh
Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
econlab.substack.com
Cracks in the AI thesis
Fable uptake falls below expectations
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
static.klipy.com
Diablo D2
ALT: Diablo D2
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Reposted by Văzdooh
Derek Thompson @dkthomp.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
New pod: THE GREAT AI DATA CENTER REBELLION AI has become an enormous part of the US economy, driving as much as one-third of economic growth. But politically, AI has never been more unpopular And AI's builders are totally wrong about why Americans hate them. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJga...
youtube.com
Why Americans Hate Data Centers | Plain English
YouTube video by Plain English with Derek Thompson
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
For $AMZN we had the earnings spike which was not in the plan. If if this to remain valid we should see MAG7 start to slide again starting today.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Using $MU instead. Hasn't been invalidated yet. In theory we have another 5-8% upside by Monday.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Out.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
1/5 SPX behavior in mid-term years in the August - October interval: 2022 Aug 16th - Oct 13th - 41 market days Final leg of the 2022 bear market for -19.28%. 2018 Oct 3rd - Dec 26th - 57 market days This one started late, but lasted longer, and did -20.18%
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Did not play out as imagined so no buy. Because there was no capitulation I think it just goes sideways-down without a major squeeze. Likely similar to CBRS, but weaker due to constant lock up releases moving forward.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Best read of the last few months.
x.com
Whitney Baker (@TotemMacro) on X
The Upsidedown
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Cut with a small profit for safety. Not liking the vibe in the market. Everything fading, energy up, yields up, USD up. Feels very much like war escalation news is coming.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - August 6th
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
$CLF lagging HRC. Last few times when HRC prices were here it tended to be in the 18-20 range (at 12 now). Constructive technical setup.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Starting to look at $SPCX. It has earnings today and lock up expiration starts on Thursday. $ASTS & $RKLB are just following it. There is also the $WARP ETF. Logic is that lock up will give us a print under 100, shorts will cover and it squeezes to 150 over 2 weeks for IPO AVWAP tag.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Will start adding to $DRAM today. Should be full position over 2-3 days. To hold until opex week then reassess.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
$CVNA looks like a failed H&S breakdown into major horizontal support. Confirmation and breakout of the downtrend give it a target of 120. Had what looks like a financed call spread yesterday as well (66 long, 80 & 36 short). If H&S break down realizes 25-30 target.
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
youtu.be
Market Review - July 31st
YouTube video by Vazdooh
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
My take on FOMC is that the bond market is overreacting to a nothing burger. Warsh seems to be preparing something for Jackson Hole, which the market will likely interpret as hawkish. Buying more long term TLT today (Jan 2028).
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
편히 쉬세요
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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Before you ask, no dip buys before FOMC and the big earnings this week. Market is in a "sell first, ask questions later" mood.
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