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Meh, technical mean revert that is basically done on value, together with TLT. Should get at least one day where everything drops into the next week.

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Long stocks, probably tech for a large rebound. I'll post more details when it's clearer. TLT on the other hand is quite confused right now. Timing will be into year end IMO.

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If we somehow out-rotate a SPX correction once again, around end of next week it will be time to go long regardless of where price is.

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Suspecting some sort of blow up related to AI is happening in the background, but will will clear eventually like the previous one. Unless the bubble is popping completely and we're near an imminent crash, the move in yields should not sustain yet.

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Even though I had 2028 leaps, taking the opportunity to exit TLT for +25% here on the averaged down position. I expect we get a low retest to reenter. Yellow dotted line is previous ATL + 55 EMA in blue. Very strange to see yields popping this much on hot CPI/PPI and retail sales.

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Got delisted for some reason. I'll try to fix it in the next few days.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Hope we finally get some action!

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Thesis is the same. Bounce has been feeble and without meaningful improvements in breadth. We got a technical break in the AI trade. Both are bearish. Holdouts are MAGS & software. No one wants to commit either way before CPI, so likely nothing big happens until Wed. Have to wait and see.

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Tomorrow we kick off earnings with $PEP. If the market's assumption is invalidated maybe we finally get that breadth recovery rally (still with market flatish since it would be rotation out of tech most likely).

10Y in 2015 started rallying in Feb, continued going higher for another month after stocks topped, and remained near highs for another month. By the time stocks hit the bottom in Feb 2016, yields were back were they started.

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May not look like much looking back, but 2015 was a decent bear market. May 21st 2015 - Feb 11th 2016. Five months of sideways before the breakdown. Max draw down of -15.13% on SPX & -20.59% on NYA. Two major down legs.

Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

New ATH with negative positioning breadth (delta), with bearish divergence trend and divergence vs previous high. No precedent for this, but the closest thing to it is 2015. www.bbbeacon.com/market-breadth - public page

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Market still likes Trmpism.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Crypto should pull back as well if/when the market drops. Something like 50% retracement of the entire move on BTC (concurrent with yearly AVWAP at this time). Around 72k. That would be the perfect buy point for the bull cycle.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

$JHEQX JPM collar for Q4/26, expiring December 31st 8105C short 7290P long 6150P short

Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Working again. I guess people were not happy with this change and it broke a lot of indicators 😂

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Nothing extra to add. Bounce in non tech still due and likely to happen. Ideally it plays out next week, then have to reevaluate the multi leg drop probability on Thu-Fri depending on how strong the rebound and breadth are.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

IWM was the only mandatory threshold. The rest are options and might not get them. Maybe something like IWM up - QQQ down for a day for it to happen, but pretty unlikely.

$PEP as well. Capitulated last week into 2025 low demand zone and holding so far. Good chance for bottom in staples $XLP.

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Somehow forgot the image.

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Some other interesting stuff: GOOGL & AMZN close to big support areas (can bounce even before those). MSFT with near identical look with BTC before the recent pump. Coiled into the ribbon, ready to move big either way.

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McClellan Summation Index as extra that I did not cover in the video. Qs entry 724-23, as low as 721 to fill the gap but unlikely. IWM 280-78. SPY 762-60.

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The data feeding this one is no longer free, so it doesn't work anymore. Trading View saw everyone else enshittificating their products and took it as a challenge.

Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Not really. The move was above the daily expected move of SPX, based on the current VIX value. The upside bias came from this.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Nope. Would not touch anything AI related for the next month or so.

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Watching it too. Had that horizontal breakdown but price only went slightly lower and wasn't impulsive. Tends to be a fake breakdown when it happens like this.

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There's also an election angle to this one. Clean energy dumped when Trump won, should surge if republicans lose

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It's a delay until opex, where it has to decide again. So far downside has not been impulsive so the risk is higher of a squeeze IMO. Until we get an impulsive move downside will be muted, and there's no point in positioning aggressively bearish.

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Clean energy names look close to a big move, likely up. $ENPH as example but others look similar. $ICLN & $TAN ETFs as well. $XLU also looking like a hold on the horizontal level. I think we'll get a rotation from fossil fuel energy into clean & utilities. Probably nuclear related stuff as well.

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Some of the semi names retraced their entire surge from May-June and look ready to have a short profit take rally. $ARM $GFS

Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Since most long AI, short something (like software) trades have unwound, it looks increasingly probable that India is due a large catch up bounce. USDINR breaking down $INDA looks like an ascending triangle breakout build up

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Well, the setup is similar to the other major bottoms. We're due the 4y cycle low in Oct as well. IMO BTC goes to the year open before a large pullback.

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Văzdooh @vazdooh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Was looking at it a few weeks back as well, but forgot about it. Looks very good & thx for the reminder.

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Liking $EWZ leaps here again. Commodity based country. $NU as top constituent and had an earnings pop. USD dumping again and should reflect in the BRL pairing soon. It dropped due to election risk (Oct 4th), but will resolve as vol crush regardless of who wins.

I'll add another reason to this one. I've noticed a narrative building on twitter over the past few months, an AI driven "golden age of medicine". I can see this becoming the next AI trade as semis start underperforming. Price going up will do wonders and can see a 6-12 month boom cycle.

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I started buying some stuff today, but will not go more than 30% invested.

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We are at record short on bonds, so can see a multi week squeeze to TLT 85-86 at a minimum (year AVWAP). The later we see the inflationary wave return, the longer this can last. Hike would also amplify, recessionary data can also amplify. 🚀thesis for commodities also validated, possibly even crypto.