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If the Democrats want to stop the Republicans from a supermajority in Nebraska, they need to hold on to all of their seats and flip one of three districts in suburban Omaha, #SD04, #SD12, or #SD18. All are very competitive, so it's possible! SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (FLIP) (ALL)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Found a guy on Facebook who's voting for every single Vermont Republican except for Phil Scott because he's too liberal. His solution? Voting for Democrat Amanda Janoo so they can get a "better" Republican in 2028.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The City of Chicago has officially called for a crusade to smack Ben Shapiro in the head. I will be leading the charge at dawn.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The Montana Democrats have a clear top target this year in the State Senate, #SD29 in Park County/eastern Bozeman. This district not only backed Harris by 2 and Tester by 12, but has no Republican incumbent running thanks to term limits! SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Missouri Democrats are hoping to expand their Senate caucus this year by flipping #SD30, an open, Trump+2 seat covering Springfield. The Dems have a good candidate in State Rep Betsy Fogle, but the GOP does as well in State Rep Melanie Stinnett. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Minnesota Democrats are hoping to win back an ancestrally Democratic district in the heart of the Iron Range in #HD7B next month. It's a Trump+9 district, but elected a Democratic State Rep back in 2022! SLEW RATING: Lean R

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

After losing #HD27 to a Turning Point USA activist in 2024, the Michigan Democrats are hoping that a more favorable environment will lead to them flipping back this downriver district. They have their former State Rep here (Jaime Churches) running! SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Massachusett's #HD8thBristol was a bit of a clustertruck back in 2024. Despite Trump winning it by 12 points, the Democrats held this open seat thanks to three Independents taking over 30% of the vote. This year, it's a 1 vs 1, Democrat vs Republican battle SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The Maryland Democrats are targeting #LD04 in suburban Frederick next month. They have the opportunity to flip 3 House seats and the Senate seat here. With a strong Democratic top of the ticket, it's possible! SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (2/3 House Seats), Lean R (1 House Seat/Senate)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Over in Maine's #HD44, the Independent incumbent there is term-limited. This should mean the Republicans are favored to flip this Trump+5 district right? Well, another Independent is running and getting a lot of the same support the outgoing incumbent got. SLEW RATING: Lean Ind

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Despite the Kentucky Democrats losing their incumbent in #HD95, a Trump+58 district in the heart of coal country, it's still a competitive race there this year. Why? They got former State Senator Johnny Ray Turner (who's really popular here) to run! SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Despite Kansas's #HD41 backing Trump by 17 points, the Republicans have effectively conceded it. Why? A strong Democrat (former State Senator Jeff Pittman) and a Republican accused of abusing her children. The House GOP cut her loose last month. SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Iowa's #SD35 was the first district in the country to flip after Trump got inaugurated for a second term. This Trump+21 district was flipped blue by Mike Zimmer just a week after Trump was sworn in. Now Zimmer has to defend it, a big ask, but possible SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

With the Republican incumbent in Indiana's #SD01 getting demolished in the primary after voting against redistricting, the Democrats have a chance to flip this Trump+7 district in Lake County blue. It's bluer downballot too, which should help. SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Can a Democratic Socialist flip a Republican-held seat in DuPage County? We'll find out in #SD24 as DSA-backed Ben McAdams challenges Republican incumbent Seth Lewis in this Harris+3 seat. Lewis is a rare labor-backed Republican (AFL-CIO endorsed). SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Covering the mighty city of Pocatello, Idaho's #LD29 will be a major battleground this year. This Trump+12 district is more Democratic-friendly downballot, especially in non-Presidential years. SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (Senate), Lean R (House Seat A), Lean D (FLIP) (House Seat B)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

A chaotic three-way race has emerged in Hawaii's #HD14 (Lahaina) between a Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent, a Democrat, and a Green Party candidate who has attracted a LOT of union/progressive support. Pure toss-up here, expect chaos. SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In a year where Georgia Democrats look like they'll do good on all levels, there's one seat in the State House where that might not happen, #HD128 in rural Georgia. This Trump+4 district has trended rightwards in recent cycles and has no incumbent running. SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Florida Democrats can defeat a party-switcher in #HD101, a Trump+3 district in southern Broward County. Republican incumbent Hillary Cassel left the Dems after the 2024 elections, but she's at serious risk of losing this November. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Thanks to a retirement, the Delaware Republicans are at risk of losing yet another Harris-won district, this time in #HD09 in southern New Castle County. If the Democrats aren't flipping an open Harris+15 district this year, something's wrong. SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We’ve got Republicans in Trump+20 districts going negative against their Democratic opponents, what is going on

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Thanks to retirements/running for Governor, the Connecticut Democrats have two big flip opportunities in the State Senate in #SD28 and #SD36. Both districts backed Harris by nearly 20 points and are incumbent-less in a blue year. SLEW RATINGS: Likely D (FLIP) (Both)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It is taking everything in my willpower not to laugh when people act like breaking a poll embargo is akin to murder

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

2022 electorate was 44% college grad too according to the CNN exit poll

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

tfw you run a campaign entirely on being anti-Zohran Mamdani when the President comes in support of Mamdani

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The Colorado Democrats can create a supermajority in the State Senate if they flip #SD30 in northern Douglas County. By flipping this Harris+2 district and one State House seat, the Colorado Dems will have supermajorities in both chambers! SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Can a former NFL Punter get elected to the California State Assembly? Well, that'll happen if the Democrats flip #AD72 in the Huntington Beach area. They're running former Minnesota Vikings punter/liberal activist Chris Kluwe in this Trump+3 district. SLEW RATING: Lean R

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Arkansas's #SD13 is a suburban seat covering the northern suburbs of Little Rock. It's currently held by the Republicans, but term limits have made it an open seat. It's a rare district that swung to the left from 2020, going from Trump+4 to Trump+1. SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

If the Arizona Dems want to win control of the legislature, they'll need to win #LD13, a Trump+1 district covering the suburban city of Chandler. All the seats are open this year and it has backed Democrats further down the ballot. SLEW Senate/House Seats Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I'm sorry, WHOMST has Talarico winning in Texas?

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

With the current Coalition-aligned Republican incumbent leaving for the State Senate, the Coalition is hoping to hold Alaska's #HD05. This Trump+13 district in the Kodiak area saw an Independent beat out a Republican by 22 points in the primary. SLEW Rating: Likely Coalition

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The Alabama Democrats have a chance to expand their State Senate caucus by flipping #SD02 in Huntsville this year. This open, Trump+0.5 seat is more Republican-friendly downballot, but an overall blue environment should be enough to flip it blue. SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

With the Delaware Dems favored to flip #HD09 this year thanks to the GOP incumbent retiring, there's only one double digit Harris-district Republican left running, Michael Smith in #HD22. He's strong in this Harris+16 district, but could definitely get caught up in the blue year

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

As I mentioned in today's edition of the SLEW, I do have an exciting announcement! Starting next month, I'll be previewing all of the competitive state legislative races throughout the country! I'll also be giving out my final ratings both here and in newsletter form!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

And here it is in chart form. Listen, we're in September at this point. The time is running out for Republicans to even get close to Trump 2024 margins among Hispanic voters in Nevada. Not only could this endanger Governor Lombardo, it probably shuts them out of both chambers!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Nevada! With Democratic-favored maps, national rebounding among Hispanics, and the potential for regaining the Democratic trifecta, the Nevada Democrats look pretty optimistic going into November.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

2021 saw a very interesting race for City Council in Minneapolis, specifically the race for the 2nd Ward in east Minneapolis. Green Party incumbent Cam Gordon lost his seat to Democratic Socialist Robin Wonsley, who narrowly defeated a DFL candidate in the final round of RCV

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I gotta say, the whole "Charlie Kirk Effect" was the biggest nothingburger I've ever seen in my years of following elections. This was from a special election in Minnesota about a week after it happened where the Democrats underperformed by 5 points. They then proceeded to belt the GOP in November.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

One of the more interesting US Senate races in 2014 happened in South Dakota. The seat was open that year, which was won by Mike Rounds. He only won with a smidge over 50% though, as a Democrat and former Republican Senator Larry Pressler (as an Indy) combined for almost 50%.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It's another Democratic Socialist win on the local level, as the Bernie Sanders-backed State Representative David Morales has unseated incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley in Providence by a healthy margin

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Is there something you want to tell us Republicans?

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

FWIW, it does look like Shaheen will win in #NH01 over Sullivan. Sullivan has been underperforming in the Manchester area. By the way, check out the amount of votes cast in places like Bedford & Goffstown. These were once ruby red Republican, but Dems are outvoting Republicans in both!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The candidates for state legislature in New Hampshire tonight include: -The treasurer of a bitcoin nonprofit -A Satanist anti-police bitcoin fraudster -A Republican incumbent who might be the most anti-Semitic candidate running this year (see below)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Happy Labor Day! In 2022, Illinois voted on establishing a Constitutional right to collective bargaining. It passed statewide easily, but it even won DuPage County. Once the most reliably conservative county in Illinois, it backed the Workers' Rights Amendment by six points!

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