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Mid-year fundraising snapshot: Progressive-backed nominees in competitive seats trailed their GOP opponents (many of them incumbents) by an average of $690,000. They'll be looking to raise a lot more or attract outside spending down the stretch.

So, will they win in November? Unsurprisingly, half of progressive primary winners are in safely Democratic seats — those 18 are all but certain to win in November. 6 more are in likely-D seats, while 6 are running in more competitive lean or toss-up races.

Progressives aren’t a monolith: 12 non-incumbents in our dataset were also backed by pro-Israel group J Street. Several races saw 2+ progressives run in different lanes. Some found broad coalitions, like Bob Brooks (PA) and Rebecca Cooke (WI), each endorsed by Sanders, the Blue Dogs, and the DCCC.

Among progressive endorsers in congressional/governor primaries, AOC had the highest win rate, and the Working Families Party backed the most winning nominees. Overall, 38 of 68 non-incumbent endorsees won (56%). Plus, a third of those who lost fell to other progressive endorsees.

Progressives won a lot of primaries this year. Can they win in November?

Progressives’ big year in primaries, by the numbers: nearly 8 in 10 candidates backed by a major progressive group won their primaries, and more than 25 new progressives are favored to win seats in Congress next month 🧵Full analysis at @fiftyplusone.news blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/progressiv...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Our original dataset tracks Democratic endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race in the 2026 primaries.

Pro-Israel groups: Candidates’ stances on Israel were a huge flashpoint in Democratic primaries. Groups like AIPAC and DMFI played offense and defense, spending big money to defend against progressive challengers and weigh in on crowded open races, with mixed results. 7/x

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Women: Continuing the trends that @meredithconroy_ has been tracking for years, women make up nearly half of Democratic primary winners, but less than 2 in 10 among Republicans. In the most competitive districts, 54% of Dem nominees so far are women, vs 15% of GOP nominees. 6/x

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GOP Committees: The NRCC rebranded Young Guns as “MAGA Majority,” promising critical backing in swing districts to Trump-aligned candidates. The NRSC lost two incumbents (Cassidy and Cornyn) to Trump-backed challengers. Elsewhere, both endorsed in close alignment with Trump. 5/x

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Trump: He’s continuing to endorse a ton of candidates. Even among non-incumbents in contested races, his endorsement record is 41 for 45, or 91%. Republicans are looking to the president, not party committees, for signals of who to rally behind. 4/x

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Dem Committees: The DCCC got flak for high-profile losses in CA-22, ME-02, and AZ-01. These were actually their *only* endorsement losses so far. The DSCC hasn’t formally endorsed, but Schumer's 0 for 1 backing Janet Mills in Maine (Coming up, he's also backed Haley Stevens). 3/x

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Progressives: More than half in our dataset won their races, including some upsets of progressive-aligned incumbents in safe blue seats. More progressives have already *won* in the first half of this cycle than the number that ran last cycle. 2/x

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Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

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FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 31/07/2026

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Reposted by Tia Yang

50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.

Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.

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Tia Yang @tsyang27.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Latest in House exodus from @fiftyplusone.news: A record number of sitting House members are running for other offices — and losing in the primaries. Many chose to enter crowded primary fields, and a dozen have already failed to secure their party's nomination. open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...

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Reposted by Tia Yang

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 18/06/2026

New: House members are losing their bids for higher office at a historically high rate. What's going on? We dive in, with data going back over 30 years. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/house-memb...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

House members keep losing their bids for higher office

This year’s primary features an unusually high percentage of competitive House members running for other offices, and their track record is not very good

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Hello! I've been lurking on Bluesky for years but finally decided to make it official. Posts before this one are migrated from my X account, with varying levels of success.

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High party unity has increasingly been a norm and a necessity this era of slim majorities and high polarization. But the cracks are already starting to show in 2026, as lawmakers navigate Trump's controversial foreign policies, government funding, and electoral pressures. 6/

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On the other side of the aisle, the redder their district, the more likely Democrats were to vote with Trump. The median Democrat sided with him on just 10 percent of votes, but one (Cuellar) did so slightly more often than the most moderate Republican (Fitzpatrick) 5/

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GOP alignment was similar in the House, where 182 of 219 Republicans backed Trump on every vote, as leadership worked overtime to keep intraparty squabbles (like on those tariff policies) off the floor. Every House vote in this study went Trump's way. 4/

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The Senate agenda was dominated by nominations, but most GOP defections came on legislation. Of 53 non-nomination votes in this analysis, 39 responded to executive action, like 3 votes to rebuke Trump's tariff policies that drew enough GOP support to pass the Senate. 3/

In the Senate, all but 8 Republicans agreed with Trump 100% of the time. Paul, Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell broke most often from the President. Democrats were largely aligned against Trump, though Fetterman voted most often with him. 2/