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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Re Mig-35s, hackmyth has an excellent video where he proves Mig-35s are actually just Mig-29Ks and Mig-29KUBs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI6C... As far as I know, Mig-29s are not in production, but feel free to share any info you might have in this regard.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

On the count as it is, Mig-29s make up only about 20% of Russia's fighter jet fleet, which probably explains (at least in part) why they have hardly been used this war.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Naturally, they aren't fully-fledged combat aircraft, meaning there are likely even fewer 'proper' Mig-29s than the count shows. However, that could be partially offset by the appearance of extra bunkers, which may house Mig-29s. We can't know.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

On Mig-29s. Some of the airframes in the count are Mig-29UBs (Uchebno-boyevoy, i.e., trainer), and they are nay impossible to tell apart from the regular Mig-29s on sat imagery.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

5. Significant increases in bunker numbers, in many cases three- and four-fold increases. 6. Bunkers may or may not contact additional aircraft. 7. Obviously, the dates are disparate, so double-counting may have occured.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

3. Su-27, Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 are grouped due to airframe similarities. 4. Significant numbers of combat and transport aircraft overall, but only two 'decent' A-50s. The A-50s that appear the worse for wear are disregarded.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

A further count of selected Russian military aircraft as per the dates indicated, with accompanying notes. 1. Warspotting losses have been accounted for. 2. A big drop in Mig-29s vs the previous count due to an airframe quality reassessment (e.g., Lipetsk).

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Well done, only I had it already and posted it here ☹️ bsky.app/profile/trut... Tell you what, if you'd like to collab, happy to do it, we can coordinate purchases so we don't dupe them. I think you CAN DM here, but you can't attach images - my email address is theunshackledthinker@hotmail.com.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

6/6 As a side note, I highly recommend hackmyth’s YouTube channel - he is an ex-Soviet aircraft designer and engineer, his channel is Russian-language, but you can run the subs on the vids no problem. Tonnes of useful info.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

5/6 Assuming none is stored in a hangar somewhere, 45 Tu-22Ms and 78 Tu-95s is still A LOT, in my view. That said, neither is in new production, as far as I could discover.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

4/6 Tu-95. Applying the same logic here, the total ‘decent’ visible airframes number 87, less nine per Warspotting since 1 June 2025, equals 78.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

3/6 An important point to make is that Warspotting has counted 11 lost and damaged Tu-22Ms, of which six were lost 1 June 2025 and after, so the count is thus 51 - 6 = 45 (as the imagery dates are mainly pre-June 2025).

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

2/6 Tu-22M. Total ‘decent’ visible airframes number 51 as at the dates indicated. Mind you, previously I counted as viable those with all the parts attached. Now I consider the quality of airframes a factor, see comparison. The faded, dirty-looking airframes are disregarded, courtesy of hackmyth.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

1/6 Seeing as we’ve covered off the state and quantity of Russian artillery (I couldn’t ID many of the towed pieces, so gave up), tanks and IFVs, I thought I’d review the state of Russian Tu-22M and Tu-95 (for now just those two).

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

This is because you need machine tools to then machine them into actual barrels - and they don't have them. www1.ru/news/2026/07... www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWOC...

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Oh, and 15 cm and 30 cm imagery - go to Skywatch and look for Vantor. They cost around US$19-24 per 1 sq km.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

> good luck to them with it! That said, EVEN if the forge is working, just about all they could forge are the 100mm Bakhcha and mortar barrels - not 122mm and 152mm tube artillery.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

> unchanged. The matter of large barrel production I've covered off before - there isn't any. Rotary forges aren't just something you can buy in a shop and plug in. I only know of one Austrian company that makes them called GFM. Whatever black-market fifteenth-hand machine the Russians got >

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Sorry, I only just saw these. The spare parts certainly play a role, although judging by the state of the hulls, they're very likely beyond repairable. This is further supported by the fact that most (if not all) the BTRZs (except UVZ) are now empty/inactive, and the storage bases remain largely >

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

I'm sorry, I couldn't help it 🤣

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Is that a FUCKING GAZ-69??? www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB6p...

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Well done! You're doing it! Yes, I've counted 61 of the forest green ones, and then I think these ones, but it's not very clear... If it's possible, I'll try to ID the other ones and post an update.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

leoskyview.bsky.social has pointed out the unidentified Planoviy pieces could be from the 40s/50s, and I think he is 100% right. I think what we can't ID are a combination of these - guns built in the 30s, 40s and 50s. On this basis, Planoviy takes the status of a museum.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

2.1/4 Might actually be the M1935 (Br-2). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/152_mm_... Produced 1937–1940, which explains why it isn't in use.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I can't be sure about the 40s/50s designs - quite possibly that is the reason they aren't being put to use. For example, 80th in Beloyarskiy has almost 500 M-30s, so who knows what's actually stored at Planoviy that we can't find much info on?

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

You're welcome. Re the 2A36s, none has muzzle or loading mech covers, some look discoloured (in prior imagery I've posted) and some have not moved since last year. Also, Russia would likely have taken them out of storage by now, were they viable, not leave them out sitting in the elements.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

4/4 The unidentified rest of small, medium and large pieces MAY very well be in good condition, but it has not been put into use this war, and there is no indication it will. Why that is - I do not know.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

3/4 As far as what I can confidently ID (and what's really most relevant as towed artillery), the 2A36s are junk. The M-46s are still there, the D-20s and D-30s I can't be sure of, as I am not good at ID'ing them.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

2/4 The base doesn't appear to have changed in either quantity or composition since then. There are indeed quite a lot of unidentifiable pieces, such as this guy here, for which there isn't even a Wikipedia entry. Curiously, it seems to be in excellent condition.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

1/4 Planoviy 30 cm of 13 May 2026. By far Russia’s largest towed artillery storage base. If I remember correctly, Highmarsed was the one who did an ID and count of pieces at the base last year. Vantor-30cm © 2026 Vantor

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Rubtsovskiy 30 cm of 16 Aug 2026. I have previously theorised that there are likely not many BMP-1/2 hulls left here, but I was mistaken. The image was 10 m by Spot, which isn't ideal. I am not sure if Rubtsovskiy is active, but I believe these BMP-1/2s are junk. Vantor-30cm © 2026 Vantor

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

3/3 In summary, these ships are out of commission. Without the comms and nav, bridge and launchers, they are floating buckets. Can they be repaired? Possibly, but it will likely take Russia years.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

2/3 The red squares show the bridge, launchers and comms/navigation towers and equipment. Results: Bridge destroyed - 2/3 Bridge damaged significantly - 1/3 Launchers destroyed - 1/3 Launchers damaged significantly - 1/3 Comms/Nav destroyed - 1/3 Comms/Nav very likely damaged/destroyed - 2/3

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

1/3 Using this post by Jake Epstein x.com/byjepstein/s..., I’ve compared the before and after on three out of Russia’s five Black Sea Fleet frigates. Comparative imagery by GE.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

4/4 3. Why now? Drones have been a problem for Russian tanks pretty much the entirety of this war, so why cease using them en-masse now, all of a sudden? Also, the steady decline in use has been very obvious for over two years now. From Warspotting, total tank losses.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

3/4 2. If the drones are such a problem for Russia, then you’d expect them to not use ANY tanks at all, wouldn’t you? Yet we still get evidence of tank use, even if only very sparingly, and not just as turtles. (From 2:31) www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUin...

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

2/4 1. Tanks are significantly more difficult to destroy than other AFVs. I won’t list down links/specifics, but you hear of 10-20 drones per tank. In sum, despite drones, generally, better to have a tank than not, even if as a battering ram.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

1/4 The suggestion that Russia is using tanks less these days “because drones” doesn’t really add up. For three reasons.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

And yes, barrels would be very valuable, and viable ones would be stored inside. The barrel is inserted into the turret during the works, along with the hull, so in parallel.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Why thank you, though I don't consider myself an expert at all :) The barrels would likely be removed inside a workshop, and the otherwise-useless turret (assuming they deem it useless) is tossed outside. I notice many are without barrels and with open hatches and engine blocks sitting outside.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

There probably isn't much more I could add to the imagery... I mean, it largely speaks for itself. Re zooming in, if you download the image, it offers better resolution, and if you zoom in on the sections with hardware, you can study it better.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Omsktransmash 15 cm of 24 June 2026.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

2/2 In all seriousness, missing barrels and mangled hulls. In summary, the main - likely now former - BTRZs I've looked at are kaput.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

1/2 I was tossing between “Guys, don’t forget to sweep up when you’re done” and “Furthermore confirmation that Russia is indeed overhauling and producing a lot of armour” to scribe what I’m seeing. I’ve settled on “Russia to resume production of T-80 tanks”. Vantor-15cm © 2026 Vantor

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

103rd BTRZ 30 cm of 25 June 2026. No comment needed.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Two more BTRZs on order - Omsk and 103rd. 15 and 30 cm resolution, so should be quite good! Figured we'd get a little BTRZ update.

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

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Truth Warrior @truthwarrior2.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

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